MLB Daily Notes - August 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Yesterday, my Apple keyboard’s “u” key died. I logged in and went to type “USE”, which is how you tell SQL Server Management Studio what database you want to query - and it just gave me “SE”. So, yesterday was a big challenge for me.
I immediately ordered a new wired Apple keyboard, but it will not be here for several days. So I’m on a windows keyboard right now, and this is really jacking me up. Keyboards are a big deal for writers and coders, and I am both of those things.
The letters and numbers are all the same; there is no problem there. Writing sentences isn’t a problem. It’s the shortcuts. The shortcuts! The “command” key on the Apple keyboard does not directly translate to a Windows key.
A lot of you are probably hunt-and-peck guys. You probably don’t use shortcuts. You probably don’t know the keyboard shortcut for switching back to the last active window you had. I pity those of you, but it is your fault - I don’t know why so many people refuse to make life easier for themselves. Use the blessings God has given you - be good stewards of the shortcuts.
Some of the command stuff goes to the control key, and some of it goes to the ALT key. When I mistype a word, on my normal keyboard I can hold “Command” and hit backspace, and that will erase the last full word. I can’t do that now, and it’s jacking me up pretty badly.
The other weird thing is that I alternate back and forth between Mac and Windows all day long. My personal computer is a Macbook Air, and for my real job, I use a Dell with Windows 11 or whatever stupid number they’re on now.
So, what you will see in the rest of these notes is a feat of physical strength and mental resilience that few people are capable of. I do amazing things every day, constantly navigating these wild challenges that life throws my way.
Pitcher Review
Edward Cabrera led the day with 18 whiffs:
5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 17.6% SwStr%, 36.3% Ball%
E-Cab really expressed his true self there. We could have predicted that exact line, although we probably would have given him an extra walk. We know who Cabrera is, and he will never change.
→ Lots of strikeouts
→ Lots of walks
→ Very inefficient
As I wrote in the slate preview, it was a pretty good matchup for him, even in Coors Field, and he did enough to take care of business. I didn’t have the nads to play him on DraftKings, but we got there anyway with the Bryce Miller, Jarren Duran, and Parker Meadows plays.
Speaking of Bryce Miller, he was second on the day with 14 whiffs and a 15.4% SwStr%.
7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, 51.6% Strike%, 34.1% Ball%
That’s a great start, and it brought his ERA down to 3.19 and his WHIP down to an elite 0.96. It’s really impressive to post a sub-one WHIP. Only six pitchers have been able to do that this year across 20+ starts.
Logan Gilbert 0.91
Tyler Glasnow 0.95
Tarik Skubal 0.95
Bryce Miller 0.96
Zack Wheeler 0.99
Joe Ryan 0.99
I like the WHIP stat. The one thing maybe we could add to it would be to penalize extra-base hits a bit more. If you pitch an inning and give one base-runner, that’s a 1.00 WHIP. That WHIP doesn’t change no matter if it’s a home run or a walk, and a walk is a much better thing to allow than a homer.
Let’s take matters into our own hands and freaking do it. We’ll call it WTBIP (WALKS PLUS TOTAL BASED PER INNING PITHED), which is an awful name - but I’m not an art guy. “Witibip”.
Did I start my day thinking I would invent a new baseball stat that would change the course of human history? No, but God works in mysterious ways.
For the Python Bros:
First, let’s look at the full picture. It’s useless to give you individual pitcher numbers if we don’t know the overall distribution.
The Google AI made those labels… it somehow knew exactly what I meant by “WTBIP,” given the code I wrote. That is really, really impressive stuff. I’m a bit shaken right now.
Here are the numbers:
50th Percentile: 1.87
25th Percentile: 1.67
75th Percentile: 2.04
There will be a tight relationship here with WHIP:
And it should correlate more strongly with ERA:
ERA vs. WHIP Correlation: 0.797
ERA vs. WTBIP Correlation: 0.886
As for the stickiness, I’m not going to check that right now. I would imagine it’s not very sticky because there is a lot of randomness that goes into extra bases. We don’t really look at WHIP much when evaluating the future anyway - there are much better ways to go about it. So, this stat will be better used for description rather than prediction.
Now, let’s get into the names. Here are your top 11 (15 starts minimum):
Bryan Woo 1.13
Paul Skenes 1.37
Tarik Skubal 1.38
Chris Sale 1.39
Hunter Greene 1.42
Logan Gilbert 1.44
Bryce Miller 1.46
Blake Snell 1.48
Justin Steele 1.50
Ranger Suarez 1.50
Max Fried 1.50
And here go your bottom 11:
Roddery Munoz 2.61
Triston McKenzie 2.47
Jordan Montgomery 2.46
Kenta Maeda 2.31
Patrick Corbin 2.31
Carlos Carrasco 2.30
Kyle Freeland 2.29
Chris Flexen 2.27
Martin Perez 2.26
Trevor Rogers 2.26
Dakota Hudson 2.26
I had to use 11 there because, in both cases, there was a tie for tenth.
This could be pretty useful for identifying bad luck ERAs. Again, there’s other and better ways to do that (SIERA), but just for fun:
Nick Lodolo (4.76 ERA, 1.76 WTBIP)
Pablo Lopez (4.26 ERA, 1.78 WTBIP)
Brandon Pfaadt (4.08 ERA, 1.73 WTBIP)
Bailey Ober (4.06 ERA, 1.72 WTBIP)
Luis Severino (4.02 ERA, 1.73 WTBIP)
Spencer Schwellenbach (3.93 ERA, 1.65 WTBIP)
So there you go, something new and exciting to check out. Here’s the full leaderboard. I’ve added it to the list of scripts that run automatically, so it will be updated most days of the week.
We saw Bailey Ober show up there. He went out and got shellacked by the Braves.
2 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 K, 2 BB
I can’t imagine a much worse night. Immediately after he completed those two innings, there was a 90-minute rain delay. So he went out there and just got bombed for two innings, raised his ERA from 3.54 to 4.06, and then had to go sit down and stew on it for 90 minutes before the game could get going again. When it rains, it pours!
That’s Ober’s second start with less than -10 points in a single start. He now owns two of the season’s bottom 20 starts.
Sometimes, in college, they would let you drop your worst test score or your worst two test scores. I think that’s total nonsense, I have no idea why you’d do that other than to just raise your overall GPA’s and graduation rates so you can brag about how smart your kids are, but let’s apply that ridiculous idea to baseball.
I took every pitcher with at least 20 starts, and I got rid of their two worst ERA starts and then compared them. Eight SPs would have ERAs at least 0.9 points better if you drop their worst two:
There’s Ober at #3. He’s been so good this year, besides these two bookend starts.
Most impressive are the guys on the other side of this list. The guys that need no forgiveness!
Tarik Skubal just refuses to have a bad start this year. He’s given up more than three earned runs just five times and more than four earned runs just once, and he has not given up more than five earned runs a single time.
The other guy here who shines is Reynaldo Lopez. He’s given up more than three earned runs just once all year, and that was a four-ER performance on July 22nd.
Here’s the full leaderboard there if you’re interested to see more. This one will not be updated again, because this is a stupid exercise.
Moving on now! Ryan Pepiot benefited from the unearned run:
6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 R, 6 K, 1 BB
His season stats now:
20 GS, 104.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 25.9% K%, 8.0% BB%
That’s a very low WHIP despite a moderate BB%. LET’S CHECK OUT HIS WTBIP! Among all SPs with at least 25 innings, Pepiot ranks 73rd in WHIP but 117th in WTBIP.
The biggest RANK DIFFS:
Kutter Crawford: 90th in WHIP, 260th in WTBIP
Nick Pivetta: 112th/265th
Joey Estes: 105th/247th
Nestor Cortes: 144th/258th
Carlos Rodon: 194th/305th
Can you spot the command thread? The long ball! All of these guys have given up a high percentage of homers this year.
The other way around:
Cristopher Sanchez: 225th/99th
Max Fried: 180th/63rd
Andre Pallante: 244th/132nd
David Peterson: 272nd/168th
Jose Soriano: 301st/209th
These are mostly extreme ground ball guys. Pitchers who do not give up home runs.
Zack Wheeler keeps having great outings in the box score without dazzling me in the advanced stuff.
6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 10.3% SwStr%
I must just be seeing him at the wrong times. His SwStr% has held steady in the 13.5% range all year. He’s great, what else is there to say?
One more note is that Cole Ragans was awful.
4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 4 BB
He left “early” with a calf cramp. But it wasn’t really early because he had thrown 94 pitches already. He had no command, and the Guardians had no trouble putting balls in play. And the velo hit the pits again:
I have thought Ragans might be dust a few different times this year, but he has bounced back every single time. That doesn’t mean he’ll definitely be fine; we could see him really flame out here at the end of his first real season as an SP - but there’s no doubt the Royals are going to keep rolling him out there. They keep winning ballgames and currently sit just one game behind the Guardians for the division at 74-58.
Hitter Review
Spencer Torkelson went yard yesterday. Here’s what he’s done since returning to the Majors:
40 PA, .333/.400/.639, 2 HR, 22.5% K%, 11.1% Brl%, 85% Cont%, .384 xwOBA
That’s exciting to see, but over just 40 PAs, it’s impossible to trust - especially since he posted just a .799 OPS in AAA. He was better in the second half down there (.890 OPS), but he was still striking out a bunch (31.3%). So I think you’ll see another Tork slump soon.
Tork’s teammate Parker Meadows was the other big name in the Tigers Opening Day lineup that had to go back to the minors. Since his return on August 3rd:
75 PA, .333/.368/.583, 2 HR, 5% Brl%, 16% K%, 5% BB%, 81% Cont%, .359 xwOBA
So the Tigers bats are humming a bit. They’re hitting .252/.303/.413 in August (so okay, never mind - that’s not really humming). But they have themselves a “big three” in August:
Kerry Carpenter: .896 OPS
Torkelson: 1.039 OPS
Meadows: .952 OPS
The Tigers lineup is potentially good next year. I’d be buying stock in them for the future if that were possible.
Meadows
Greene
Carpenter
Torkelson
Keith
Jung
That’s a potentially strong top six.
Matt Wallner did it again. He jacked his 10th homer in just 159 PAs. He’s now at at 25% Brl%, but a 36.5% K%.
He is all alone down there in the bottom right. I need to come up with a name for this kind of hitter profile. The high K%, high Brl% guy. “Empty power” is what I usually say, but I can get more creative than that.
Right now, your hitters with:
15%+ Brl%
30%+ K%
→ Cal Raleigh
→ Tyler O’Neill
→ Michael Toglia
→ Nolan Gorman (RIP)
→ Oneil Cruz
→ Jose Siri
→ Jhonkensy Noel
→ Matt Wallner
→ Patrick Wisdom
It’s not good to have several of those types of guys on your fantasy team, but there is certainly something to be said for having one or two when you team them with someone of the opposite disposition. These guys are almost always free, and a bunch more pop up throughout the year - so you can get free homers because of the expense of batting average (and playing time in some situations).
Take, for example, the Michael Toglia + Luis Arraez combo. These guys are on the opposite ends of the spectrum.
We select both of their names from the main dashboard, and then we can see their collective stats together in that top row:
So you would end up using two roster spots and get a .273/.321/.416 slash line out of them with 25 homers. That’s pretty useful in a deep league. And it’s even better if you can find an Arraez-type that also steals a few bags.
The Arraez example isn’t the best because, given the name value, he gets drafted in most leagues. The point here is to find two players that are free (on waivers) who combine their skills to become a useful five-category fantasy player.
Maybe a better combination for the 2024 example would be Jhonkensy Noel and Geraldo Perdomo. You could have certainly gotten your hands on both of those names for free, and here’s what they would have given you so far in the second half:
226 PA, .282/.350/.515, 11 HR, 5 SB
Not bad for a free combination.
Gleyber Torres has homers in back-to-back days.
He has had a better second half, but it’s still a far cry from what he did last year:
97 PA, .256/.320/.360, 2 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB
Just a dozen homers and four steals this year with a .242 batting average. Not getting it done. He’ll be a nice buy-low next year. That’s how it works with Torres. You buy him after bad years and sell him after good ones.
SP Streamers
Wrote about today’s guys yesterday:
Jared Jones vs. CHC
Jeffrey Springs vs. SEA
Tobias Myers vs. SF
I was RIGHT about the Pirates using Jared Jones today. Shout out to me. I’m so happy to have that guy back. I haven’t watched a Pirate game in weeks, but that’s how good I am at dropping my allegiance as soon as things go south. I will tune in tonight to see my first 2024 love - Jared Jones. I even ended up getting him back on my home league team a few weeks ago. I traded him for Pablo Lopez right at the top of his value and then got him back for very cheap. Just perfectly executed. I love you, Jared Jones.
Looking forward to tomorrow now. There’s not much to like. We have plenty of aces on the hill, so most of the guys pitching will be owned or just too bad to consider. The one name we should take a peek at is Osvaldo Bido. He’s on quite a run right now:
That’s a 1.17 ERA, a 0.87 WHP, a 26.1% K%, and a 10.2% BB% in August - and he’s won his last three starts. Under the hood:
14.5% SwStr%, 48.4% Strike%, 36.8% Ball%, .433 OPS, 99 Stuff+, 99 Loc+
Pretty good stuff. If you are unfamiliar, Bido is not some prospect that is just now getting to the Majors. He’s a 27-year-old journeyman who has been in pro ball since 2017. He has posted a career 5.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 138 games in the minors, so there’s no great reason to believe he can suddenly get Major League hitters out.
But let’s humor him and take a look at his pitch mix in August:
His stuff isn’t bad. He’s been between 90 and 110 Stuff+ wise in every outing. The fastball is fine velocity-wise and has gotten a good number of whiffs lately - but the command is shaky on it with a very high 43% Ball%.
After that, he throws a changeup, which has worked well (19% SwStr% in August), but he doesn’t throw it for strikes often either (41% Ball%).
the slider is the one he’s been throwing for strikes, and that has held his arsenal together.
We saw a good bit of him in Pittsburgh last year, so let’s look at the pitch mix taking the big data sample all together (2023-2024):
The Good:
11.3% SwStr%, which isn’t actually “good”, but it’s not horrible either as far as a streaming option goes.
The Bad:
38% Ball%, which is really bad.
The Ugly:
34% GB% makes him susceptible to the long ball.
You see above that the ugly hasn’t uglied in August, he hasn’t given up a home run all month. If that changes tonight, it could get… well, ugly. We don’t like high ball rates and high fly ball rates - that’s a recipe for disaster - and this game tomorrow is in Cincinnati.
If we look back to last year and take SPs with:
→ GB% below 35%
→ BB% above 9%
We get these five names:
Andrew Abbott
Cristian Javier
Spencer Arrighetti
Roddery Munoz
Osvaldo Bido
So, I hate to tell you, but there are some bad results likely coming for Bido. I make this recommendation (and most of the others in this section) as a pure desperation call. If you really, really need a start tomorrow - there’s a path to success for Bido, given that the Reds are exploitable and that he’s in nice form right now.
And so concludes another weekday edition of the Daily Notes. I had a lot of fun with this one; I hope I’m making up for the lame weekend!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Max Fried
2. Edward Cabrera
3. Bryce Miller
4. Ronel Blanco
5. Mitchell Parker
6. Zack Wheeler
7. Davis Martin
8. Alec Marsh
9. Ryan Pepiot
10. Mitch Keller
11. Randy Vasquez
12. Nestor Cortes
13. Ty Madden
14. Bailey Ober
15. Jose Berrios
16. Ryan Feltner
17. Jameson Taillon
18. Cole Ragans
19. Kyle Gibson
20. Logan Allen
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryce Miller (vs. TB): 36.55 Points
2. Nick Pivetta (vs. TOR): 27.1 Points
3. Max Fried (vs. MIN): 24.85 Points
4. Jose Berrios (vs. BOS): 24.46 Points
5. Nestor Cortes (vs. WSH): 23.41 Points
6. Edward Cabrera (vs. COL): 17.19 Points
7. Zack Wheeler (vs. HOU): 16.7 Points
8. Ryan Pepiot (vs. SEA): 16.7 Points
9. Ryan Yarbrough (vs. BOS): 13.69 Points
10. Zack Kelly (vs. TOR): 13.55 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 18 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Bryce Miller (SEA): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
3. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Max Fried (ATL): 11 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
5. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 10 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 10 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 10 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
8. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 9 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Mitch Keller (PIT): 9 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
10. Scott Blewett (MIN): 9 Whiffs (39 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Fried (ATL): 54.8 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
2. Bryce Miller (SEA): 51.6 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
3. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 51.0 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
4. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 48.5 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
5. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 47.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
6. Randy Vasquez (SD): 47.3 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
7. Alec Marsh (KC): 47.1 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
8. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 45.8 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
9. Davis Martin (CWS): 45.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
10. Mitch Keller (PIT): 44.3 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
11. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 43.8 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
12. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 42.9 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
13. Cole Ragans (KC): 41.5 Strike%, 46.8 Ball%
14. Domingo German (PIT): 41.4 Strike%, 42.9 Ball%
15. Jose Berrios (TOR): 40.8 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios: 98 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.26 POUT
2. Bryce Miller: 91 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.33 POUT
3. Nestor Cortes: 91 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.55 POUT
4. Jameson Taillon: 90 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.74 POUT
5. Max Fried: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
6. Randy Vasquez: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
7. Ryan Feltner: 71 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.07 POUT
8. Logan Allen: 76 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.07 POUT
9. Ryan Pepiot: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
10. Ronel Blanco: 91 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.35 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Edward Cabrera's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 90.6
Randy Vasquez's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 91.5
Brad Keller's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.9
Cole Ragans's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.9
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.9
Cole Ragans's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 94.0
Cole Ragans's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 83.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's FF usage (48.3%) up 10.4 points
Domingo German's FF usage (47.1%) up 17.3 points
Edward Cabrera's FF usage (48.0%) up 18.7 points
Jameson Taillon's SI usage (25.6%) up 15.7 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (40.2%) up 11.4 points
Mitchell Parker's SL usage (28.9%) up 18.7 points
Ronel Blanco's CU usage (20.9%) up 14.6 points
Ryan Feltner's FF usage (47.9%) up 15.0 points
Ryan Pepiot's FC usage (16.7%) up 13.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +20.1%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +19.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +17.5%
Gavin Williams Cutter: +17.4%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -17.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.7%
Tanner Gordon Sinker: -16.4%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -16.0%
Tanner Gordon 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +14.6%
Aaron Civale Sinker: +13.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.9%
Luis Severino Sweeper: +13.6%
Bowden Francis Split-Finger: +13.5%
Luis Gil Slider: +13.4%
Luis L. Ortiz Slider: -13.3%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +12.9%
Roddery Munoz Cutter: -12.8%
Dean Kremer 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Tyler Holton Sinker: +12.5%
Paul Blackburn Sinker: +12.4%
Luis Gil Changeup: -12.3%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +12.2%
Chris Sale Slider: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Logan Webb - 81 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 71 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Michael Wacha - 73 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Brandon Pfaadt - 78 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 38.2% K%
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Bowden Francis - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 35.0% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 33.7% K%
Paul Skenes - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Framber Valdez - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 94 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Ryne Nelson - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Kochanowicz - 79 TBF, 63.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 77 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 108 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 97 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Davis Martin - 87 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Brayan Bello - 96 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Max Fried - 93 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 94 TBF, 52.3% GB%
####Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Gavin Stone - 89 TBF, 28.1 K%, 5.6 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 33.7 K%, 5.1 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Ryne Nelson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 2.7 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 71 TBF, 33.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 43.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Matt Waldron: 10.5 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Nick Lodolo: 9.75 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Patrick Corbin: 8.1 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 7.27 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 7.96 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 7.27 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 7.24 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Logan Gilbert: 5.74 ERA, 3.16 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 6.55 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Max Meyer: 7.46 ERA, 4.91 SIERA
Luckiest
Valente Bellozo: 2.93 ERA, 5.97 SIERA
Logan Webb: 0.96 ERA, 3.37 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 2.43 ERA, 4.49 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 2.25 ERA, 4.23 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 2.08 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
David Peterson: 2.45 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Joey Estes: 3.03 ERA, 4.86 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.59 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Javier Assad: 3.16 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 2.84 ERA, 4.55 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Bryan Woo - +2.6% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Logan Webb - +5.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +4.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.9% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - +2.8% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Bryce Miller - +4.5% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Framber Valdez - +3.3% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Justin Steele - +5.9% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Dane Dunning - +2.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.8% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Bryan Abreu - +3.9% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 8 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jarren Duran (BOS) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 5 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 9 PA, 16 Swings, 4 Barrels, 2 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Miguel Amaya, Yesterday: 111.3 Previous High: 111.2
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.7mph - nan
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.6mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.3mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.1mph - single
Miguel Amaya (CHC) - 111.3mph - double
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.3mph - nan
Sam Hilliard (COL) - 111.1mph - single
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) - 110.7mph - nan
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.3mph - double
Jorge Polanco (SEA) - 110.1mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Logan O'Hoppe - 64 PA, 0.148 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, 0.147 Diff
Max Schuemann - 54 PA, 0.181 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.126 Diff
Lenyn Sosa - 57 PA, 0.193 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.116 Diff
Brandon Lowe - 84 PA, 0.262 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Charlie Blackmon - 60 PA, 0.228 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Jake Cronenworth - 78 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Nathaniel Lowe - 70 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Austin Riley - 58 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.399 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
J.D. Martinez - 64 PA, 0.308 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Jonny DeLuca - 65 PA, 0.249 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
Gavin Sheets - 62 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 86 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 74 PA, 0.384 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 0.442 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Alex Call - 69 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Matt Vierling - 61 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Leo Jimenez - 61 PA, 0.39 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 69 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Ernie Clement - 78 PA, 0.302 wOBA, 0.225 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Tyler Fitzgerald - 82 PA, 0.323 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 45 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 58 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 57 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 60 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 79 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 63 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.532 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.502 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 80 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 67 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 79 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Santiago Espinal - 45 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 81 PA, 148 Swings, 95.9 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 65 PA, 115 Swings, 93.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 127 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 65 PA, 119 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 56 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 48 PA, 86 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 54 PA, 114 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 67 PA, 105 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 74 PA, 130 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Ryan O'Hearn - 46 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jonny Deluca - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Luis Robert - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Dylan Moore - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Caballero - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Altuve - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach McKinstry - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Dansby Swanson - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Jose Caballero - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Luis Robert - 11 Attempts (7 steals)
Dylan Moore - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
James Wood - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 16.2 K%, 25.5 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 67 PA, 13.4 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
George Springer - 82 PA, 19.5 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 14.0 K%, 20.7 Brl%
Matt Olson - 87 PA, 17.2 K%, 17.7 Brl%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 64 PA, 15.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 80 PA, 7.5 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 13.6 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Joc Pederson - 82 PA, +0.135 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 98 PA, +0.129 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +0.118 xwOBA
Joey Bart - 98 PA, +0.113 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 120 PA, +0.111 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 124 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Yainer Diaz - 121 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Michael Toglia - 112 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 117 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Matt Wallner - 85 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Jackson Merrill - 106 PA, +11.9 Brl%
Ian Happ - 117 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 106 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +7.8 Brl%
Michael Toglia - 112 PA, +7.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 82 PA, +7.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 127 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 94 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Geraldo Perdomo - 110 PA, +7.0 Brl%
Manny Machado - 112 PA, +6.9 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Joey Bart - 98 PA, +11.6 Cont%
Matt Wallner - 85 PA, +11.0 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 117 PA, +10.7 Cont%
Eugenio Suarez - 116 PA, +10.1 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 86 PA, +9.4 Cont%
Ryan O'Hearn - 83 PA, +9.2 Cont%
William Contreras - 111 PA, +8.7 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 86 PA, +8.6 Cont%
Gleyber Torres - 121 PA, +8.6 Cont%
MJ Melendez - 82 PA, +8.5 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 98 PA, -13.8 K%
Joey Bart - 98 PA, -11.9 K%
Eugenio Suarez - 116 PA, -11.6 K%
Cody Bellinger - 100 PA, -10.5 K%
Giancarlo Stanton - 81 PA, -9.7 K%
Nick Castellanos - 111 PA, -9.5 K%
MJ Melendez - 82 PA, -9.5 K%
Jo Adell - 97 PA, -9.3 K%
Juan Yepez - 106 PA, -8.5 K%
Freddy Fermin - 96 PA, -8.4 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Anthony Volpe - +3.5% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Brenton Doyle - +4.4% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -6.3 Chase%
Otto Lopez - +8.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -11.7 Chase%
Jarren Duran - +9.6% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Jared Triolo - +15.9% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -17.5 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Judge - 0.556 xwOBA, 30.8% Brl%, 80.6% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Carlos Santana - 0.381 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 21.9% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Corbin Carroll - 0.399 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Francisco Lindor - 0.468 xwOBA, 20.5% Brl%, 77.4% Contact%, 23.5% Chase%, 18.3% K%
George Springer - 0.384 xwOBA, 25.0% Brl%, 77.1% Contact%, 16.8% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Jonathan India - 0.394 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 83.3% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Juan Soto - 0.448 xwOBA, 19.4% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 17.5% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Zack Gelof - 37.7% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.938 Cold Rating
Tyler Fitzgerald - 36.8% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Paul Goldschmidt - 30.0% Whiff%, 85.2% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 38.9% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating
Dansby Swanson - 28.9% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Zach Neto - 31.8% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.822 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 27.3% Whiff%, 82.8% Weak%, 0.811 Cold Rating
Andres Gimenez - 27.6% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.81 Cold Rating
Teoscar Hernandez - 30.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.808 Cold Rating
Leo Jimenez - 33.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.806 Cold Rating
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
CHC - 111.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 108.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
WSH - 106.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIN - 105.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAA - 103.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 80.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIL - 87.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
SEA - 90.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
CLE - 90.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
HOU - 91.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Jeffrey Springs (44.0% Owned): Projected 5.23IP 2.07ER 7.03SO 1.76BB 19.13FPts
Andrew Heaney (17.0% Owned): Projected 5.03IP 2.26ER 5.53SO 0.98BB 15.63FPts
Eduardo Rodriguez (48.0% Owned): Projected 5.58IP 2.95ER 5.29SO 1.84BB 13.75FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Miguel Amaya - 29 PA, 1.261 OPS
Trevor Larnach - 28 PA, 1.208 OPS
Joey Loperfido - 31 PA, 1.18 OPS
Whit Merrifield - 38 PA, 1.167 OPS
Matt Wallner - 31 PA, 1.139 OPS
MJ Melendez - 28 PA, 1.134 OPS
Jhonkensy Noel - 34 PA, 1.09 OPS
Parker Meadows - 34 PA, 1.057 OPS
Connor Norby - 30 PA, 1.056 OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 36 PA, 1.017 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Jesus Sanchez CF (4.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.2HR 0.77RBI 0.84SO 0.36BB 0.08SB 9.48FPts
Charlie Blackmon RF (6.0% Owned): Projected 0.88R 0.14HR 0.65RBI 0.7SO 0.49BB 0.06SB 9.21FPts
Connor Norby 2B (4.0% Owned): Projected 0.8R 0.16HR 0.59RBI 0.95SO 0.38BB 0.09SB 9.03FPts
Nolan Jones 3B (46.0% Owned): Projected 0.75R 0.16HR 0.77RBI 1.04SO 0.54BB 0.1SB 8.94FPts
Michael Toglia RF (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.22HR 0.72RBI 1.16SO 0.47BB 0.06SB 8.83FPts
Brendan Rodgers 2B (23.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.14HR 0.71RBI 0.77SO 0.31BB 0.03SB 8.47FPts
Wilyer Abreu RF (38.0% Owned): Projected 0.71R 0.14HR 0.57RBI 1.18SO 0.49BB 0.09SB 8.42FPts
Spencer Horwitz 1B (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.14HR 0.68RBI 0.76SO 0.39BB 0.04SB 8.41FPts
TJ Friedl LF (41.0% Owned): Projected 0.6R 0.11HR 0.68RBI 0.64SO 0.34BB 0.16SB 8.32FPts
Max Schuemann IF (7.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.14HR 0.51RBI 1.22SO 0.54BB 0.12SB 8.26FPts
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