MLB Daily Notes - August 28th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
The NFL season is almost here! While what I can offer for football is not nearly as good as what I offer for baseball, I do put some stuff out! Sign up as a paid member today and get everything that I will be offering for football season, including but not limited to
Weekly projections (possibly not ready until week 2 or 3 as I want to improve them this year, example here)
The NFL tableau dashboard (view last year’s version for free here)
Possible weekly slate write-ups and other data reports
Sitting out on my buddy’s deck while they work a half day writing up the notes! What a weekend it has been. Just going wherever, whenever, seeing people - doing stuff. I can’t believe people live this all the time! Fantasy football draft tonight so look for some sweet, sweet ass “look at my home league team!!!” tweets TONIGHT!
But we’ve got some time to spend here today so let’s go through it.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Mike Clevinger has been pretty sneaky of late. Huge game yesterday with seven innings and ten strikeouts. Since June he has a 2.15 ERA in 9 starts and has done this peripherally:
12.5% SwStr%, 50.3% Strike%, 22.7% K%, 8.1% BB%
So that’s more “decent” than “good”, but he has a 14% SwStr% and a 28% K% in his last three starts. Looking at his pitch mix in the second half:
So he’s a guy getting a good amount of called strikes given the low SwStr% but the high Strike%. He’s kept the hard contact down despite the low GB% - so this is actually a pretty fraught situation. It would seem he’s been lucky, and indeed he’s beating his xwOBA in the second half by 0.24 - with a big differential in batting average:
So, Clevinger isn’t the worst pitcher in the world but I wouldn’t expect much moving forward.
Aaron Nola had the classic spike game just when you were getting sick of him again. He’s like the abusive husband who buys you flowers and apologizes just when you’re about to leave him. But in Nola’s case, he’s actually not an abusive husband, he’s a very good pitcher that you should never have considered giving up on.
You had a few weeks off of me raving about Griffin Canning, but that’s over now.
94 PC, 18.1% SwStr%, 49% Strike%, 33% Ball%, 9:1 K:BB
Here’s the season pitch mix just to remind you of the greatness:
Those 93 nulls were that one freaking game in Detroit when the power went out and Statcast broke. What a shame.
A 14.5% SwStr% with a 49% Strike% and a .288 xwOBA - it’s just glorious. Other SPs with a SwStr% over 14% and a Ball% below 35%:
Joe Ryan
Spencer Strider
Clayton Kershaw
Pablo Lopez
Shane McClanahan
Bailey Ober
Domingo German
Luis Castillo
Kutter Crawford
Max Scherzer
Griffin Canning
Zack Wheeler
Quite a good list to be a part of.
Carlos Rodon still hasn’t put together a good outing, but at least he had 18 whiffs on a 21.4% SwStr% and a 54.8% Strike% yesterday - those are elite numbers. But somehow that only turned into 4.2 innings. Lots of foul balls, it would seem. I’m taking that as a very good sign and am absolutely not letting him go for the stretch run. If anybody were to drop him, I’d pick him up and ride it out. And he also makes for a very, very interesting buy-low next season. All of the risk is going to be gone or at least baked into the cost - and Rodon is one of the best in the business when he’s healthy and going right.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (vs. STL): 36.55 Points
2. Mike Clevinger (vs. OAK): 35.95 Points
3. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. KC): 30.55 Points
4. Javier Assad (vs. PIT): 28.75 Points
5. Griffin Canning (vs. NYM): 28.15 Points
6. Justin Verlander (vs. DET): 26.85 Points
7. David Peterson (vs. LAA): 26.15 Points
8. Ty Blach (vs. BAL): 25.35 Points
9. Alec Marsh (vs. SEA): 20.56 Points
10. Bryse Wilson (vs. SD): 19.2 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 21 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
2. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 18 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
3. Griffin Canning (LAA): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Luis Castillo (SEA): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Alec Marsh (KC): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Drew Rom (STL): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Jordan Montgomery (TEX): 15 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. David Peterson (NYM): 13 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
9. Aaron Nola (PHI): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 56.6 Strike%, 26.4 Ball%
2. Justin Verlander (HOU): 56.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 54.8 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
4. Ty Blach (COL): 54.7 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
5. Aaron Nola (PHI): 53.7 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
6. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 53.7 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
7. Bailey Ober (MIN): 53.4 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
8. Tristan Beck (SF): 52.9 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
9. Bryan Hoeing (MIA): 51.7 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
10. Luis Castillo (SEA): 51.6 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
11. Alec Marsh (KC): 50.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
12. Bailey Falter (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
13. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
14. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 49.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
15. Drew Rom (STL): 49.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Slade Cecconi's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 73.8
Michael Wacha's SI velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.9
Graham Ashcraft's FC velo (45 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.3
Javier Assad's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 79.1
Chris Murphy's FF velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.0
Chris Murphy's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 73.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's FF usage (50.5%) up 21.7 points
Bailey Falter's SL usage (42.0%) up 28.1 points
Bailey Ober's CH usage (37.0%) up 11.2 points
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (52.4%) up 21.6 points
David Peterson's SI usage (33.7%) up 10.3 points
Drew Rom's ST usage (26.0%) up 14.9 points
Gavin Stone's FC usage (28.1%) up 17.5 points
Graham Ashcraft's SL usage (47.3%) up 10.5 points
Griffin Canning's FF usage (47.9%) up 13.5 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (35.2%) up 11.4 points
Noah Syndergaard's SL usage (19.1%) up 13.7 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (51.2%) up 24.2 points
Ty Blach's FC usage (27.9%) up 13.5 points
Zack Littell's ST usage (16.3%) up 10.5 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (15.2%) up 13.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Houck Sinker: +22.9%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.6%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -19.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -18.4%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +18.2%
Jon Gray Slider: +18.1%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.0%
Johan Oviedo 4-Seam Fastball: +17.6%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +16.3%
Jose Urquidy 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Luis Severino Cutter: +14.6%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -14.1%
Cole Ragans Slider: +13.5%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Scott Alexander Slider: -13.1%
Jordan Lyles Changeup: +13.1%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +13.1%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Dakota Hudson Slider: +12.9%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.7%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Austin Gomber Slider: +12.4%
JP Sears Slider: +12.3%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 91 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 79 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Merrill Kelly - 92 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 42.9% K%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Eury Perez - 81 TBF, 35.8% K%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Max Scherzer - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 81 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 73 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 97 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 112 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 77 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 87 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 108 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Brandon Williamson - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Cole Ragans - 96 TBF, 37.5 K%, 7.3 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Gavin Williams - 90 TBF, 34.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 2.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 102 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.5% GB%
Zach Eflin - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 3.2 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Graham Ashcraft - +3.9% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Julio Urias - +6.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Griffin Canning - +5.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Hitters
George Springer in August:
.301/.351/.518, .869 OPS, 4 HR, 10.8% Brl%, 21.3% K%, .329 xwOBA
He just might be healthy again, and a healthy Springer is a very good fantasy player, especially with the steals going up. His 17 steals are a career-high and we’ve got a month left to go.
Mookie Betts last 30 days:
29 R, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 3 SB, .464 AVG
He is the top guy on the L30 player rater. Here’s the rest of that top 10:
Kerry Carpenter (eyeball emoji)! Nine bombs and a .352 AVG over his last 30 days. Great hitter
Multiple Barrels
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
George Springer (TOR) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
William Contreras (MIL) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Michael Toglia (COL) - 111.7mph - field_out
Royce Lewis (MIN) - 111.7mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.7mph - single
Matt Olson (ATL) - 111.3mph - double
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 110.4mph - single
Adam Duvall (BOS) - 110.0mph - home_run
William Contreras (MIL) - 110.0mph - home_run
Yoan Moncada (CWS) - 109.9mph - double
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 109.6mph - single
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 109.5mph - grounded_into_double_play
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jose Ramirez - 65 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.117 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, 0.11 Diff
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.108 Diff
Alec Bohm - 76 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 74 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 78 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Luis Arraez - 70 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 60 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Randal Grichuk - 69 PA, 0.171 wOBA, 0.245 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 94 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.416 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Bottom 10
Kerry Carpenter - 75 PA, 0.512 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.147 Diff
Jose Altuve - 88 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Adam Duvall - 72 PA, 0.466 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, -0.129 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 67 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.243 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 0.451 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Nolan Jones - 76 PA, 0.378 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Bryce Harper - 74 PA, 0.491 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 74 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 0.501 wOBA, 0.409 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 83 PA, 0.391 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 48 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.1 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 77 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 67 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 62 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 60 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 76 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 75 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Stone Garrett - 51 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 76 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 84 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 64 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 77 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Jake Cave - 48 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 64 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 112 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 75 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 50 PA, 76 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 69 PA, 133 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 70 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 86 PA, 157 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 73 PA, 109 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 80 PA, 159 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Ty France - 83 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Pablo Reyes - 74 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Michael Harris II - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Rojas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes and all the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.