MLB Daily Notes - August 29th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Johan Oviedo threw a complete game shutout in Kansas City, so his strange season continues. He had just a 9.8% SwStr% and a 45% Strike% on the night, both pretty bad numbers, but the Royals were unable to barrel up a single ball and they hit 52% of their batted balls on the ground. Oviedo has proven to be difficult to square up this year (.353 xwOBACON is well below the league average of .372), and that’s kept him afloat despite a pretty bad 10.9% K-BB% on the year. If he can make a step forward with the K% and BB% next year, he could be something for fantasy - but for now he’s much too volatile and dependent on getting outs on contact.
Jon Gray put together one of his spike games:
6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 1 BB
He had a great 21.3% SwStr% with a 58.4% Strike%. That’s some of his best work. It came against the Mets, which I guess is somehow a decent matchup for pitchers these days. For the year now:
13.5% SwStr%, 47.3% Strike%, 21.4% K%, 7.9% BB%, .312 xwOBA
Decent numbers really, you’d expect a little bit higher K% and a much better ERA and WHIP situation, but it’s been a challenge for Gray. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the year pretty strong, but really anything can happen with the guy.
Andrew Abbott has been scuffling.
First ten starts:
1.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 27.8% K%, 8.0% BB%
Last six starts:
6.67 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 25.8% K%, 11.7% BB%
He has just a 10.1% SwStr% and a 44.7% Strike% in these last six, so everything is bad. I’m not sure what to think about the guy. I definitely didn’t buy that he as anywhere as good as he showed early on, but the K-BB% was still good, and now all of a sudden the K% drops to points and the BB% comes up almost four. I’ll hold on for a bit longer, I suppose, but if there’s a reliable arm available for your playoff weeks - I’d be happy to swap him out.
The man of the day, however, was clearly Kyle Harrison who put a 37 ball up on the Reds, who continue to just bleed fantasy points to opposing starters. Harrison did this:
91 pitches, 12 whiffs, 13.2% SwStr%, 52.7% Strike%
And his box score line:
6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 11 K, 2 BB
That was his second Major League appearance and he now has a 16.7% SwStr% and a 40% K% in those two outings. Pretty impressive stuff early on. The reason for hesitation is that he had an enormous walk rate in the minors, so it’s not like that just went away overnight upon arriving in the Majors, although the early signs are good with a 34.6% Ball%.
Here’s an updated look at the pitch mix:
Very high 16.5% SwStr% on his first 109 four-seamers. I doubt that sticks around (although he is left-handed so maybe there’s some of that delivery deception stuff going on), and look - he throws a “slurve” that has gone for a high 18.9% SwStr%. I personally kind of hate how many different variations we have on these breaking balls now, even if it more accurate - it makes stuff a little bit harder to compare. How am I supposed to know what a good SwStr% on a slurve is when almost nobody else throws the pitch. Goofy stuff, but it makes Harrison a really interesting pitcher.
The most surprising thing to me here was that he threw 91 pitches. He four pitch counts before being promoted were 60, 42, 38, and 60 - so I really thought they were going to keep that trend going and just get the young guy some early MLB experience. But they felt yesterday that he could get up to 91 - so that’s good. I’d probably add this guy in deeper leagues, but again - expect some wildness to show up soon, because that’s what we had seen all year in the minors.
Grayson Rodriguez had another strong one with six scoreless innings, and this time he went for a high 14.6% SwStr% on a 6:1 K:BB. He’s been very good since returning, and shapes up to be a guy rocketing up draft boards next year given what we’ve seen here and the upside everybody knows this guy has.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Harrison (vs. CIN): 37.24 Points
2. Blake Snell (vs. STL): 33.55 Points
3. Luis Severino (vs. DET): 32.75 Points
4. Johan Oviedo (vs. KC): 31.85 Points
5. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. CWS): 28.3 Points
6. Bryan Woo (vs. OAK): 25.1 Points
7. Tylor Megill (vs. TEX): 23.9 Points
8. Reese Olson (vs. NYY): 23.54 Points
9. Jon Gray (vs. NYM): 22.5 Points
10. Kevin Gausman (vs. WSH): 17.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reese Olson (DET): 20 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Jon Gray (TEX): 19 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
3. Blake Snell (SD): 15 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYY): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Lucas Giolito (LAA): 15 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
7. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
8. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 14 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Chris Sale (BOS): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
10. Kyle Muller (OAK): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jon Gray (TEX): 58.4 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
2. Reese Olson (DET): 55.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 54.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
4. Luis Severino (NYY): 53.5 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
5. Kyle Harrison (SF): 52.7 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
6. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 51.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
7. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 50.5 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
8. Bryce Elder (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
9. Tylor Megill (NYM): 49.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Xzavion Curry (CLE): 47.2 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
11. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 47.1 Strike%, 42.4 Ball%
12. Kyle Muller (OAK): 45.3 Strike%, 39.5 Ball%
13. Bryan Woo (SEA): 44.9 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
14. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 44.6 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
15. Chris Sale (BOS): 44.6 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Zac Gallen's FC velo (15 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 91.3
Kyle Muller's FF velo (41 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 94.8
Kyle Muller's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.0
Tylor Megill's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.7
Zack Greinke's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 71.2
Bryan Woo's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 85.9
Michael Kopech's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 82.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Wainwright's CU usage (41.9%) up 12.1 points
Adam Wainwright's FF usage (29.0%) up 19.9 points
Bobby Miller's FF usage (39.5%) up 14.2 points
Bryan Woo's FC usage (27.5%) up 17.3 points
Bryce Elder's FF usage (24.5%) up 11.9 points
Bryce Elder's CH usage (24.5%) up 12.4 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (48.3%) up 13.1 points
Jose Urquidy's FF usage (59.6%) up 23.8 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (36.5%) up 22.0 points
Kenta Maeda's FF usage (43.9%) up 18.1 points
Kyle Muller's CH usage (18.6%) up 11.6 points
Lucas Giolito's CH usage (40.6%) up 16.1 points
Reese Olson's SI usage (31.0%) up 11.1 points
Tylor Megill's FF usage (68.8%) up 14.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Houck Sinker: +22.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +22.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -19.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.4%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +18.2%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -16.1%
Jose Urquidy 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -14.1%
Cole Ragans Slider: +13.5%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.1%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +13.1%
Jordan Lyles Changeup: +13.1%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Dakota Hudson Slider: +12.9%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.7%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
JP Sears Slider: +12.3%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.2%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Merrill Kelly - 92 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 98 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 35.2% K%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 34.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Max Scherzer - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Andrew Abbott - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 31.2% K%
Merrill Kelly - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 80 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 73 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 97 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 112 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 74 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Bobby Miller - 98 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 87 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 2.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Sonny Gray - 102 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Zach Eflin - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 3.2 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Graham Ashcraft - +3.9% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Luis Severino - +2.7% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Mitch Keller - +6.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Julio Urias - +7.9% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Griffin Canning - +5.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Hitters
Jorge Polanco is having a solid second half with an .840 OPS and a 15.7% Brl% on a 25% K%. Good to see him finally healthy and swinging it well.
Trea Turner is having a stellar August with a .313/.355/.606 line with seven homers now and an 18% K%. It looks like the old Trea is back.
And Jose Altuve hit for the cycle, I believe. He’s had some injuries this year, but in the second half he’s gone .383/.464/.583 with four homers on a 15.9% K% - so he’s looking like his best self as well.
Multiple Barrels
Jorge Polanco (MIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Altuve (HOU) 6 PA, 10 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Sean Murphy (ATL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Trea Turner (PHI) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ketel Marte, Yesterday: 117.1 Previous High: 116.0
Hardest Hit Balls
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 117.1mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 113.1mph - triple
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 112.7mph - nan
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 112.5mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 112.4mph - single
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.9mph - home_run
Juan Soto (SD) - 111.9mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.5mph - home_run
Xander Bogaerts (SD) - 111.4mph - field_out
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 111.1mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jose Ramirez - 65 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Juan Soto - 81 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.363 xwOBA, 0.109 Diff
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 0.298 wOBA, 0.401 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Randal Grichuk - 69 PA, 0.158 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 79 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.398 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 84 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.429 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Trent Grisham - 60 PA, 0.198 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 75 PA, 0.238 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Harrison Bader - 63 PA, 0.191 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Bottom 10
Adam Duvall - 72 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.142 Diff
Jose Altuve - 94 PA, 0.468 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.138 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 75 PA, 0.491 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 67 PA, 0.369 wOBA, 0.258 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 85 PA, 0.531 wOBA, 0.421 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 68 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 71 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Nolan Jones - 77 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 0.499 wOBA, 0.402 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Alex Bregman - 96 PA, 0.458 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 82 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 63 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
D.J. Stewart - 55 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 63 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 61 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 83 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Eddie Rosario - 61 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 85 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Stone Garrett - 51 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 75 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 64 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 95 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 84 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 82 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 82 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 69 PA, 131 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 120 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 77 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 79 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 68 PA, 122 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Pablo Reyes - 70 PA, 111 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 49 PA, 76 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Brice Turang - 64 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 85 PA, 170 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 86 PA, 165 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Rojas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jeff McNeil - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Michael Harris II - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Gunnar Henderson - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Daulton Varsho - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Zach McKinstry - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Pablo Reyes - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Tommy Pham - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 17 Attempts (16 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
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