MLB Daily Notes - August 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Last night my DFS pitching duo was Alex Cobb and Cole Ragans, and that worked out very well, as you can see below. However, I also spent like a bajillion dollars on Braves in Coors, and they scored just three runs (on 15 hits though…).
But anyway, things on the pitching side went pretty much as predicted yesterday.
Alex Cobb darn near threw a no-hitter, giving up his first hit in the ninth inning. That led him to throwing 131 pitches with this line:
13.7% SwStr%, 47.3% Strike%, 8:1 K:BB, 62% GB%
Overall this year, Cobb has been good - but he’s had plenty of pretty bad starts. He has a low SwStr% and a middling Strike%, which leads to a mediocre strikeout rate - but his GB% is great. Here’s the pitch mix:
That was his second complete game of the year and he sits with a 15.1% K-BB%.
Cole Ragans also did it again, this time against a really weak Pirates lineup.
7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 9 K, 1 BB, 14.8% SwStr%, 53.7% Strike%
With the Royals, he has a 1.94 ERA in 7 starts with a 1.10 WHIP, a 33.9% K%, and a 6.7% BB%. He’s been one of the most valuable later-season free agent pickups and I imagine he’s a top 30 or so SP pick for next year if he finishes the year on this same roll.
I’ve rarely talked about Justin Steele since the beginning of the season, but here’s what he’s up to this year:
25 GS, 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 23.6% K%, 5.2% BB%
That’s a pretty darn good line, although the ERA would feel a little low given that WHIP and K%. Remember that the league ERA is 4.36 - so anything below 3.50 is even better than you might think upon first hearing the number.
Charlie Morton was completely unbothered by Coors Field and generated 21 whiffs on this line:
6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB
He’s been just magnificent in his last three starts since that goofy seven-walk start:
19 IP, 1 ER, 29 K, 9 H, 4 BB
Tarik Skubal also had a nice start
6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB
He now has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in his 10 starts with a very strong 29.4% K% and 5.0% BB% combination. He’ll be a guy I’m very aggressive on next year, I think.
Jose Berrios, MacKenzie Gore, and Brandon Williamson were all quite bad yesterday.
Williamson is a guy I hyped up but then kind of pulled back on after his last start - even though the results in that previous start were good. Yesterday against the Giants:
105 pitches, 7.6% SwStr%, 42.9% Strike%, 39% Ball%, 5:0 K:BB
That’s really not good stuff, so any possible excitement I had on him is on the shelf until at least next season - sorry about that.
One other thing, Gavin Williams hurt himself delivering a pitch and left after the first inning. We don’t know much on that, but it’s certainly possible it’s a serious injury that costs him some time. Keep an eye on that and just drop him if he has to hit the IL - but it’s also possible he’s fine and will make another start soon - even this week maybe given the quit exit last night.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Alex Cobb (vs. CIN): 37.05 Points
2. Cole Ragans (vs. PIT): 31.35 Points
3. Justin Steele (vs. MIL): 29.3 Points
4. Charlie Morton (vs. COL): 28.5 Points
5. Tarik Skubal (vs. NYY): 23.9 Points
6. Andrew Heaney (vs. NYM): 22.39 Points
7. Corbin Burnes (vs. CHC): 21.75 Points
8. Luis Ortiz - 682847 (vs. KC): 20.25 Points
9. Jose Quintana (vs. TEX): 19.9 Points
10. Clayton Kershaw (vs. ARI): 19.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 21 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Alex Cobb (SF): 18 Whiffs (131 Pitches)
3. Cole Ragans (KC): 16 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 16 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Justin Steele (CHC): 15 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
7. Dean Kremer (BAL): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Zack Thompson (STL): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
10. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 12 Whiffs (110 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Justin Steele (CHC): 58.6 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
2. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 58.0 Strike%, 25.9 Ball%
3. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 56.4 Strike%, 27.3 Ball%
4. Cole Ragans (KC): 53.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Michael King (NYY): 52.5 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
6. Charlie Morton (ATL): 51.5 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
7. Tarik Skubal (DET): 51.5 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
8. Aaron Civale (TB): 51.0 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
9. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 48.1 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
10. Seth Lugo (SD): 47.7 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
11. Michael Lorenzen (PHI): 47.7 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
12. Alex Cobb (SF): 47.3 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
13. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 46.9 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
14. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 46.3 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
15. J.P. France (HOU): 45.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
J.P. France's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 84.2
J.P. France's CU velo (32 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 77.5
Clayton Kershaw's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.6
Clayton Kershaw's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.4
Hunter Gaddis's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.9
Tarik Skubal's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 74.9
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 83.3
I think it’s worth checking if the Rays have changed Aaron Civale at all.
With Cleveland:
With Tampa Bay:
So the answer looks like a no for now, the pitch mix is very similar. The Stuff+ hasn’t changed either, so he’s just doing the same stuff with the new team - but maybe that will change in the future. We’ll see.
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's SI usage (28.1%) up 11.1 points
Alex Cobb's FS usage (63.4%) up 27.0 points
Casey Lawrence's SI usage (54.2%) up 28.2 points
Charlie Morton's FC usage (21.6%) up 15.1 points
Cole Ragans's SL usage (18.5%) up 11.9 points
Dean Kremer's FC usage (34.4%) up 10.4 points
J.P. France's CU usage (34.4%) up 20.4 points
Michael King's FF usage (34.4%) up 12.6 points
Seth Lugo's SI usage (32.9%) up 14.6 points
Zack Thompson's FC usage (28.6%) up 15.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Houck Sinker: +22.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +22.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -19.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.4%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +18.2%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -16.1%
Jose Urquidy 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
J.P. France Curveball: +16.0%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +15.5%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -14.1%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.1%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +13.1%
Jordan Lyles Changeup: +13.1%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Dakota Hudson Slider: +12.9%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.7%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Charlie Morton Cutter: +12.7%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
JP Sears Slider: +12.3%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.2%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 36.8% K%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 34.6% K%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 33.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Andrew Abbott - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 31.2% K%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
George Kirby - 78 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 80 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 73 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 97 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 101 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Dane Dunning - 74 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Bobby Miller - 98 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 108 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 74 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.2 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Michael King - 55 TBF, 29.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 27.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Aaron Civale - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +6.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Julio Urias - +7.9% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Jordan Montgomery - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Luis Severino - +2.6% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Chris Flexen - +3.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Griffin Canning - +5.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Jhony Brito - +5.1% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Luis Rengifo (LAA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Luis Robert (CWS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Willson Contreras (STL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 118.6mph - double
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 116.3mph - nan
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 115.7mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 114.6mph - nan
Willson Contreras (STL) - 113.9mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.2mph - home_run
Manny Machado (SD) - 112.5mph - single
Randy Arozarena (TB) - 111.3mph - nan
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) - 111.3mph - field_out
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 111.2mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Harrison Bader - 62 PA, 0.151 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, 0.106 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 67 PA, 0.274 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.104 Diff
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 78 PA, 0.31 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Trent Grisham - 58 PA, 0.205 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 0.323 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Salvador Perez - 72 PA, 0.252 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 86 PA, 0.321 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Riley Greene - 76 PA, 0.296 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Bottom 10
Adam Duvall - 72 PA, 0.516 wOBA, 0.376 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Jose Altuve - 94 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.132 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 81 PA, 0.536 wOBA, 0.417 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 75 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 67 PA, 0.369 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Nolan Jones - 76 PA, 0.328 wOBA, 0.226 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Trea Turner - 79 PA, 0.475 wOBA, 0.376 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Josh Rojas - 58 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Bryce Harper - 72 PA, 0.551 wOBA, 0.458 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 84 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 57 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 59 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
D.J. Stewart - 55 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 72 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 85 PA, 60 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 62 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Luis Robert - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Marcell Ozuna - 85 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Bryce Harper - 72 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 68 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 64 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 96 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 81 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Ty France - 84 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 70 PA, 137 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 84 PA, 135 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 77 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 73 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 63 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Brice Turang - 63 PA, 111 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 86 PA, 168 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Pablo Reyes - 66 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 86 PA, 173 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Michael Harris II - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Rojas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Gunnar Henderson - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Tommy Pham - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Christian Yelich - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Will Brennan - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ryan McKenna - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Altuve - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 72 PA, 15.3 K%, 20.4 Brl%
Christian Walker - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Eddie Rosario - 64 PA, 15.6 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 81 PA, 14.8 K%, 14.1 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 80 PA, 13.8 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 85 PA, 18.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Max Kepler - 68 PA, 17.6 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 66 PA, 18.2 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 13.5 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 96 PA, 11.5 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Trea Turner - 79 PA, 16.5 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Max Kepler - 94 PA, +0.121 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 111 PA, +0.098 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 90 PA, +0.098 xwOBA
J.P. Crawford - 87 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 121 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
James Outman - 93 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 120 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Ty France - 118 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Spencer Torkelson - 113 PA, +0.083 xwOBA
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 106 PA, +0.073 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Josh Palacios - 84 PA, +13.4 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 113 PA, +12.7 Brl%
J.P. Crawford - 87 PA, +9.8 Brl%
Max Kepler - 94 PA, +9.5 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 111 PA, +8.5 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 92 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 118 PA, +6.4 Brl%
D.J. LeMahieu - 86 PA, +6.3 Brl%
Christian Walker - 113 PA, +6.2 Brl%
James Outman - 93 PA, +6.1 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Brice Turang - 97 PA, +13.9 Cont%
Kole Calhoun - 82 PA, +13.4 Cont%
Michael Massey - 110 PA, +12.4 Cont%
Josh Lowe - 86 PA, +10.8 Cont%
Mike Moustakas - 100 PA, +9.5 Cont%
Yainer Diaz - 96 PA, +9.4 Cont%
Cody Bellinger - 116 PA, +9.2 Cont%
Eloy Jimenez - 81 PA, +8.8 Cont%
Tyler O'Neill - 88 PA, +8.7 Cont%
Joc Pederson - 83 PA, +7.5 Cont%
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