MLB Daily Notes - August 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
The Microsoft Excel Course Has Launched!
Yesterday, I started a new draft post to write up an NFL DFS Week 1 Preview post. I am only a few paragraphs into it, but I was really tickled writing it. I’m excited to work on it and release it next Thursday or Friday. Hopefully, the passion will stay there and I’ll be able to put out football writings all season long. It is really fun to write up football games. In baseball, we focus more on the individual players. Baseball is made up of individual events. Every football play has several different people as a part of it, so it’s an entirely different approach to analysis.
Pitcher Review
Bowden Francis rolled another six. If you don’t know what I mean by that, read his section of these daily notes.
7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 K, 0 BB
That’s four straight wins for the man, and he dropped his August ERA down to 1.05. That leads the league by a lot. He has a 33.1% K% and a 3.4% BB% in that time frame.
He did not get there with whiffs last night. He earned just six of those on his 70 pitches (8.6% SwStr%), but everything else went amazingly well. It’s pretty wild that they only let him throw 70 pitches there. This was after he threw 117 pitches last time in search of a no-hitter, so maybe this was just intentional to give him a lighter load after that.
His pitch locations last night:
That would seem to be a smart approach. He only throws that slider to righties, so all of those locations were down and away. He throws the splitter and curveball to lefties in place of it, and he keeps those pitches mostly down where they should be.
So, the command has been phenomenal for Francis. I stand by my take on him last time, though. Given the lack of raw stuff, one of these times, the command isn’t going to be fantastic, and this run of greatness will end. But you’re starting him right now, no doubt.
Nathan Eovaldi was the true winner of the night.
7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 10 K, 2 BB, 17.7% SwStr%, 60.4% Strike%
Any time you go above 60% with the strike rate, you’re really cooking. The fastball velocity got a bump back up after two starts with lower velocity:
The whole season has been pretty nice for him, with a strong 14.4% SwStr% and a 32.1% Ball%.
He sports a 3.60 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this year. The walk rate is awesome at 5.7%, and the strikeout rate is more than fine at 24.5%.
Sonny Gray did the opposite of what he has been doing. For a while now, he’s been getting a bunch of strikes and whiffs but still giving up runs. Last night, he did not do very well in the whiffs department (7.8% SwStr%), but turned in a very good start:
6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 K, 0 BB
He posted an elite 30% Ball% and a good 51.1% Strike%, so it was nice. The ERA is back under four now at 3.96, but his 24% K-BB% and 3.07 SIERA show you how unlucky he’s been for big parts of this season.
Here are all of your pitchers with a SIERA at least one run below their ERA over the last 30 days.
Those pitchers have all been unlucky to some extent. But we don’t want much to do with anybody with a SIERA above 4.25 or so, regardless of what the ERA has been. To flip that around and show you the lucky pitchers:
There was not much else applicable for fantasy that happened yesterday on the pitching side. You can check out the full data here.
Hitter Review
Lawrence Butler scored 46 fantasy points yesterday. That’s pretty good. He hit three home runs and drove in four runs.
I think someone asked me last week if they should drop Butler or someone else, and I told them to drop Butler. That’s too bad.
Butler’s season has been very interesting. He was awful before July:
150 PA, .172/.253/.261, .515 OPS, 31% K%, 10% BB%, 2 HR, 4 SB
And then he went bonkers in that month of July:
98 PA, .363/.408/.802, 1.210 OPS, 19% K%, 7% BB%, 10 HR, 4 SB
His August had been between those samples prior to yesterday:
89 PA, .235/.270/.432, .702 OPS, 4 HR, 4 SB
But that one big game raised his August OPS to .851. Let’s take a look at his full season, which is what we should always be doing.
.255/.313/.503, .816 OPS, 19 HR, 11.6% Brl%, 24% K%, 8.2% BB%, .259 xAVG, .351 xwOBA, 42% GB%
He checks most of the boxes you want. He’s newly 24, limits strikeouts enough, gets the ball in the air, hits the ball hard, and steals bases.
His ADP will be very interesting next year. I think there is a nice floor for him since he’s locked into playing time now, and the Athletics will get a bit of a park boost heading to Sacramento. I think people will overvalue him a bit and forget about how bad those first few months were. But we’ll see. You’re certainly profiting if you added Butler in July and have rode him out the whole way - unlike that one dude who dropped him last week lmao!
Brenton Doyle also had a big game yesterday. He’s followed the same pattern as Butler this year. Pretty mediocre at the beginning, unbelievably good in July, and then bad at the beginning of August.
His season line is now .271/.333/.479 with 22 homers and 25 steals. His second-half OPS was down to .764 prior to yesterday, but he had still added six homers and five steals. Overall, he’s a great fantasy asset. The 25% K% is a big gain from last year (35%), and that’s made all of the difference.
If you are a reliable steals guy and you can put a bunch of balls in play in Coors Field, the fantasy production is going to follow. The power has been a bit of an added boost for Doyle, but the exit velocity checks out on him (106.5 90th percentile EV), so I think it’s fair to project/expect 20-20 next year from him - and that makes him a top 30 fantasy bat, I’d say.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has had a big August.
90 PA, .329/.398/.582, .980 OPS, 13% K%, 9% BB%, 4 HR, 6 SB
So we should take a close look at him. He is a South Bend Cubs legend; there are pictures of this dude all over that ballpark. So there’s a nice tidbit for you, I think I actually saw him play at one of those games in 2022. The profile:
Does not hit the ball very hard (107.2 max EV, 101.9 90th)
Does get the ball into the air at a good clip (42% GB%, 29% FB%)
Mediocre contact rate (72%), but he’s made K% improvements throughout the year regardless.
Had just a .250 BABIP in the first half, but it has normalized the second half (.298).
Overall he has a .220 xBA and a .287 xwOBA - neither is good.
He swings a ton (60%). That’s the sixth-highest swing rate in the league. He has been a little bit more picky in August (56%), so maybe that’s helped him.
He feels like a Brenton Doyle type - but from 2023 rather than this year. What I mean by that is he’s an excellent center fielder with a ton of speed to swipe bags with, but not much of a hitter. The hope is that he will develop his bat skills and gain more power. The kid is currently 22 years old, so he’s a high-upside prospect for dynasty leagues.
Oneil Cruz will also be a very interesting 2024 ADP to see. He’s had a massive August:
.290/.457/.561, 1.018 OPS, 1 HR, 10 SB
It’s pretty shocking to see a .561 SLG with just a single homer. His season line looks pretty nice now:
.273/.331/.477, .807 OPS, 31% K%, 8% BB%, 18 HR, 19 SB
The strikeouts and higher GB% (46%) have kept the homer pace lower than we would like, but the 17% Brl% shows that there is surely 30-homer upside in the bat. The biggest change recently to his fantasy profile has been the base running.
Oneil Cruz Steals & Attempt Rate by Month
Apr: 3 SB, 14% Attempt%
May: 1 SB, 7% Attempt%
Jun: 2 SB, 12% Attempt%
July: 3 SB, 18% Attempt%
Aug: 10 SB, 31% Attempt%
I was once a Pirates fan, and I would watch the games, and I remember noticing that Cruz just really looked healthy again after the All-Star Break. He had a big leg injury last year, so it was quite possible that some of that was still lingering early on this year. It seems all restrictions have been taken off in the second half, and he’s been running a ton again.
So that’s very good for his fantasy value. I think the guy has an easy 20-20 floor moving forward, and the upside is astronomical.
James Wood has also been rewarding fantasy owners in August:
.318/.423/.511, .934 OPS, 3 HR, 9 SB, 24% K%, 14.4% BB%
You love to see that K% and BB% from a young guy - especially a guy this big.
He has his Brl% up to 11.3% and the K% down to 29%. The one thing he has left to work on is elevating the ball. His 56% GB% is in the bottom 20 of the league. We have seen improvements as he’s gotten more and more reps though:
The comp is clear here, it’s Elly De La Cruz. He has similar foot and bat speed, but just the issue of strikeouts and ground balls.
If he can make the same strides next year as Elly has this year, he’s a pretty clear top-25 fantasy player, and we’ll be seeing him in the first or second round by 2026.
My guess is he’ll be a third or fourth-round type next year.
I’m talking too much about next year. Here are some August surging bats that might be available to you right now if you need a bat to bolster your fantasy lineup (ordered by xwOBA, but I’ll give more stats than that):
Michael Toglia: .834 OPS, .380 xwOBA, 29% K%, 15% Brl%
Jesus Sanchez: .5 HR, 17% Brl%, .378 xwOBA
Masyn Winn: .314/.357/.514, 5 HR, .341 xwOBA
Taylor Ward: .289/.327/.422, 1 HR, .335 xwOBA
Whit Merrifield: .258/.355/.376, 1 HR, 17% K%, .332 xwOBA
JJ Bleday: .295/.380/.557, 6 HR, 8.5% Brl%, .325 xwOBA
If you’re looking for power: Toglia/Sanchez/Bleday.
If you’re looking for batting average: Winn/Ward/Merrifield (and I’ll throw in Colt Keith as well who has a .293 xBA in August).
And if you need some steals help: Xavier Edwards/Fitzgerald/Hoerner/Caballero/Garcia/Gimenz/Gelof
Hope that helps! I’m going to get into some more football stuff!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi
2. Cristopher Sanchez
3. Nick Nastrini
4. J.T. Ginn
5. Bradley Blalock
6. Kutter Crawford
7. Aaron Civale
8. Michael King
9. Bowden Francis
10. Charlie Morton
11. Brady Singer
12. Hunter Brown
13. Sonny Gray
14. Hayden Birdsong
15. Jack Kochanowicz
16. Julian Aguiar
17. Bobby Miller
18. Ryne Nelson
19. Valente Bellozo
20. Keider Montero
21. David Peterson
22. Cade Povich
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. CWS): 37.95 Points
2. Aaron Civale (vs. SF): 31.35 Points
3. Bowden Francis (vs. BOS): 29.15 Points
4. Jack Kochanowicz (vs. DET): 22.5 Points
5. Sonny Gray (vs. SD): 21.7 Points
6. Hunter Brown (vs. KC): 20.61 Points
7. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. ATL): 19.96 Points
8. Brady Singer (vs. HOU): 17.9 Points
9. Charlie Morton (vs. PHI): 15.36 Points
10. Nick Nastrini (vs. TEX): 15.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 18 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Nick Nastrini (CWS): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Michael King (SD): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Charlie Morton (ATL): 12 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
7. Aaron Civale (MIL): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Brady Singer (KC): 11 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Bradley Blalock (COL): 10 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 60.4 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 52.4 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
3. Sonny Gray (STL): 51.1 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
4. Keider Montero (DET): 50.6 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
5. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 50.5 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
6. Bowden Francis (TOR): 48.6 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
7. Aaron Civale (MIL): 46.7 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
8. Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 46.6 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
9. Michael King (SD): 46.6 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
10. Nick Nastrini (CWS): 44.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
11. Charlie Morton (ATL): 44.8 Strike%, 41.0 Ball%
12. J.T. Ginn (OAK): 44.8 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%
13. Bradley Blalock (COL): 44.4 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
14. Brady Singer (KC): 43.6 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
15. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 43.5 Strike%, 46.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bowden Francis: 70 Pitches, 20 Outs, 3.5 POUT
2. Jack Kochanowicz: 73 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.06 POUT
3. Aaron Civale: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
4. J.T. Ginn: 67 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.47 POUT
5. Nathan Eovaldi: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
6. David Peterson: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT
7. Kutter Crawford: 96 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.8 POUT
8. Hunter Brown: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT
9. Ryne Nelson: 95 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Sonny Gray: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.2
Ryne Nelson's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 79.4
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (54 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.6
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.0
Cristopher Sanchez's SI velo (41 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.0
Hayden Birdsong's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.2
Aaron Civale's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 76.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bobby Miller's FF usage (48.8%) up 16.7 points
Bowden Francis's FS usage (25.7%) up 13.1 points
Cade Povich's SI usage (27.6%) up 18.8 points
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (51.4%) up 16.7 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (26.8%) up 18.6 points
Keider Montero's SI usage (19.1%) up 13.3 points
Kutter Crawford's FC usage (49.0%) up 18.7 points
Nick Nastrini's CU usage (20.4%) up 13.0 points
Valente Bellozo's CU usage (35.1%) up 22.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +19.6%
Jack Kochanowicz Sinker: +18.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +17.5%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -17.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.7%
Bowden Francis Split-Finger: +16.3%
Gavin Williams Cutter: +15.4%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -15.3%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +15.1%
Cooper Criswell Sinker: +15.0%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +14.6%
Jack Kochanowicz Curveball: -14.0%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.9%
Cooper Criswell Changeup: -13.8%
Nick Nastrini 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: -13.4%
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +13.3%
Luis L. Ortiz Slider: -13.3%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +12.9%
Dean Kremer 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Paul Blackburn Sinker: +12.4%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +12.2%
Freddy Peralta Slider: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Michael King - 94 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Blake Snell - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 100 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Gavin Stone - 69 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 81 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 100 TBF, 35.0% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%
Gavin Stone - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Bowden Francis - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Justin Steele - 82 TBF, 32.9% K%
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 97 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Gavin Stone - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 82 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 109 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Andre Pallante - 104 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Davis Martin - 66 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Max Meyer - 95 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Jack Kochanowicz - 101 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 100 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 87 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Brant Hurter - 79 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 3.9 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 38.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 59.0% GB%
Justin Steele - 82 TBF, 32.9 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Matthew Liberatore - 50 TBF, 32.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Paul Skenes - 90 TBF, 32.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 68 TBF, 32.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 48.7% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Nick Lodolo: 9.75 ERA, 4.1 SIERA
Roddery Munoz: 9.14 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 6.91 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Hayden Birdsong: 8.68 ERA, 5.23 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 7.96 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 7.36 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Gavin Williams: 6.56 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Kyle Gibson: 6.92 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 6.75 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Max Meyer: 7.42 ERA, 4.81 SIERA
Luckiest
Michael Lorenzen: 1.85 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
David Peterson: 1.86 ERA, 4.55 SIERA
Osvaldo Bido: 1.55 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Javier Assad: 2.84 ERA, 5.05 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 1.45 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Aaron Nola: 2.7 ERA, 4.64 SIERA
Logan Webb: 1.7 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Joey Estes: 3.03 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 2.84 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Gerrit Cole: 1.93 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Michael Wacha - +5.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - +3.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Sean Manaea - +3.6% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Bryan Woo - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Zack Wheeler - +2.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Framber Valdez - +3.3% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - +2.3% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Dane Dunning - +2.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Bryce Miller - +4.4% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brendan Rodgers (COL) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Derek Hill (MIA) 6 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Lawrence Butler (OAK) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Zach Neto (LAA) - 113.9mph - nan
Corey Seager (TEX) - 113.0mph - home_run
Jake Burger (MIA) - 112.9mph - single
Jake Burger (MIA) - 111.8mph - field_out
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 110.9mph - single
Seth Brown (OAK) - 110.7mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.5mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.1mph - field_out
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.0mph - home_run
Derek Hill (MIA) - 110.0mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Lenyn Sosa - 57 PA, 0.177 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Logan O'Hoppe - 58 PA, 0.166 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Brandon Lowe - 74 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
J.D. Martinez - 68 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Lars Nootbaar - 56 PA, 0.327 wOBA, 0.396 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Michael Conforto - 58 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Rhys Hoskins - 65 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.272 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 60 PA, 0.269 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 0.276 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 0.358 wOBA, 0.416 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
JJ Bleday - 76 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 68 PA, 0.446 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Gavin Sheets - 65 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Enrique Hernandez - 56 PA, 0.349 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Tyler Fitzgerald - 79 PA, 0.305 wOBA, 0.216 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Ernie Clement - 77 PA, 0.32 wOBA, 0.234 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Ramon Laureano - 74 PA, 0.43 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 86 PA, 0.43 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 79 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 50 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.0 Brl%
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Ian Happ - 79 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Michael Harris II - 62 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Grant McCray - 49 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 56 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 60 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 63 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.541 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Ian Happ - 79 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 83 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Jorge Soler - 53 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 75 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Ramon Urias - 64 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 85 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 84 PA, 156 Swings, 96.2 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 60 PA, 113 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 138 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 63 PA, 95 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 63 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 59 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Xavier Edwards - 52 PA, 95 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 54 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Jonah Bride - 74 PA, 111 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 78 PA, 140 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Oneil Cruz - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
James Wood - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Dylan Moore - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Altuve - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Dansby Swanson - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jackson Merrill - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Zack Gelof - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jonny Deluca - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jacob Young - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
James Wood - 14 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Jose Caballero - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Dylan Moore - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Luis Robert - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 17.1 K%, 26.0 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 83 PA, 15.7 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.5 Brl%
George Springer - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 19.3 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 75 PA, 14.7 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 17.2 K%, 21.9 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 53 PA, 17.0 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 16.2 K%, 19.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 87 PA, 18.4 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Will Smith - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 13.0 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Joc Pederson - 82 PA, +0.14 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 97 PA, +0.124 xwOBA
Ramon Urias - 82 PA, +0.11 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 126 PA, +0.103 xwOBA
Joey Bart - 88 PA, +0.101 xwOBA
Matt Wallner - 90 PA, +0.095 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 114 PA, +0.087 xwOBA
Ian Happ - 114 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 108 PA, +0.081 xwOBA
Michael Conforto - 93 PA, +0.081 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Jackson Merrill - 108 PA, +11.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 82 PA, +11.1 Brl%
Ian Happ - 114 PA, +10.4 Brl%
Ramon Urias - 82 PA, +8.7 Brl%
Geraldo Perdomo - 109 PA, +7.5 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 102 PA, +7.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 119 PA, +7.3 Brl%
George Springer - 113 PA, +6.5 Brl%
Logan O'Hoppe - 94 PA, +6.1 Brl%
Wyatt Langford - 91 PA, +6.1 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Joey Bart - 88 PA, +12.3 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 109 PA, +10.3 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 87 PA, +9.5 Cont%
William Contreras - 113 PA, +9.2 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 91 PA, +8.1 Cont%
MJ Melendez - 85 PA, +7.8 Cont%
Lenyn Sosa - 86 PA, +7.4 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 89 PA, +7.2 Cont%
Michael Massey - 80 PA, +7.1 Cont%
Matt Wallner - 90 PA, +7.0 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Parker Meadows - 85 PA, -11.7 K%
Cody Bellinger - 111 PA, -11.5 K%
Joey Bart - 88 PA, -11.5 K%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 97 PA, -10.5 K%
Lawrence Butler - 103 PA, -9.4 K%
Michael Massey - 80 PA, -9.4 K%
Jo Adell - 102 PA, -9.3 K%
Matt Vierling - 91 PA, -9.0 K%
MJ Melendez - 85 PA, -8.9 K%
Manny Machado - 116 PA, -8.8 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jurickson Profar - +12.4% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Otto Lopez - +7.9% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -12.4 Chase%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - +3.4% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -19.2 Chase%
Jarren Duran - +12.8% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Willy Adames - +10.2% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -8.9 Chase%
Oneil Cruz - +6.6% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Anthony Santander - +9.9% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Miguel Amaya - +18.5% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Judge - 0.529 xwOBA, 25.7% Brl%, 80.9% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Corbin Carroll - 0.446 xwOBA, 21.1% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 22.2% K%
Ian Happ - 0.496 xwOBA, 22.2% Brl%, 75.2% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 21.4% K%
Jarren Duran - 0.386 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 78.8% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 16.4% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.417 xwOBA, 13.9% Brl%, 85.7% Contact%, 17.8% Chase%, 11.1% K%
Lawrence Butler - 0.393 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 83.0% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 8.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Tyler Fitzgerald - 34.4% Whiff%, 81.5% Weak%, 0.945 Cold Rating
Jackson Holliday - 36.9% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 32.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.889 Cold Rating
Andres Gimenez - 30.8% Whiff%, 80.6% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 30.1% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Dansby Swanson - 32.6% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating
Zach Neto - 31.2% Whiff%, 74.3% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 30.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Paul Goldschmidt - 29.7% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Zack Gelof - 35.1% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.827 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Austin Deming (HOU): 4/4, 2R, 2HR, 6RBI, 1SB, 47FPts
Brice Matthews (HOU): 3/4, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2SB, 40FPts
Matt Gorski (PIT): 4/4, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 38FPts
Chandler Simpson (TB): 2/3, 2R, 0HR, 0RBI, 4SB, 34FPts
Carson Williams (TB): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Wilfred Veras (CWS): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Juan Guerrero (COL): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Mike Antico (STL): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Kaden Polcovich (SEA): 1/2, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 27FPts
Thomas Saggese (STL): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Brett Kerry (LAA): 104 Pitches, 7IP, 1H, 2ER, 14K, 2BB, 37FPts
Ian Seymour (TB): 86 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 1ER, 9K, 4BB, 28FPts
Mitch White (MIL): 85 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 25FPts
Bailey Dees (NYY): 86 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 7K, 3BB, 25FPts
Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS): 68 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 24FPts
Braeden Fausnaught (PHI): 99 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 2ER, 8K, 2BB, 21FPts
Blake Adams (COL): 85 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 5K, 2BB, 21FPts
Joey Mancini (HOU): 87 Pitches, 4IP, 4H, 1ER, 6K, 2BB, 20FPts
Michael McGreevy (STL): 81 Pitches, 5IP, 7H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB, 20FPts
Colton Johnson (OAK): 49 Pitches, 3IP, 0H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 20FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 493 PA 0.965 OPS
Kyle Manzardo (AAA - CLE) 360 PA 0.959 OPS
Coby Mayo (AAA - BAL) 378 PA 0.949 OPS
Keston Hiura (AAA - LAA) 364 PA 0.943 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 464 PA 0.94 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 426 PA 0.921 OPS
Jimmy Crooks III (AA - STL) 353 PA 0.914 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 414 PA 0.913 OPS
Willie MacIver (AAA - COL) 341 PA 0.911 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - KC) 349 PA 0.906 OPS
Cal Stevenson (AAA - PHI) 376 PA 0.9 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 465 PA 0.896 OPS
Johnathan Rodriguez (AAA - CLE) 417 PA 0.894 OPS
Carson Taylor (AA - PHI) 402 PA 0.893 OPS
Gustavo Campero (AAA - LAA) 402 PA 0.892 OPS
Cooper Hummel (AAA - HOU) 361 PA 0.89 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 463 PA 0.889 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 488 PA 0.888 OPS
Roman Anthony (AAA - BOS) 441 PA 0.885 OPS
Austin Shenton (AAA - TB) 344 PA 0.884 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 90 IP 23.2% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AAA - ARI) 98 IP 22.7% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 96 IP 22.3% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 103 IP 22.0% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 129 IP 21.7% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AA - HOU) 92 IP 21.3% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 110 IP 20.9% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 88 IP 20.8% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 100 IP 20.7% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 113 IP 20.5% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 105 IP 20.4% K-BB
Caden Dana (AA - LAA) 135 IP 20.1% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 120 IP 19.5% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AAA - COL) 107 IP 19.3% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 106 IP 18.9% K-BB
Drew Parrish (AA - ATL) 104 IP 18.7% K-BB
Joander Suarez (AA - NYM) 119 IP 18.5% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 109 IP 18.5% K-BB
Isaac Coffey (AA - BOS) 102 IP 18.4% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
CHC - 109.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 108.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAA - 108.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 108.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
WSH - 105.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 84.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
CWS - 89.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
SEA - 89.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
CLE - 90.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIL - 92.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Jon Gray (18.0% Owned): Projected 5.48IP 2.68ER 5.57SO 1.61BB 15.27FPts
Tylor Megill (1.0% Owned): Projected 5.02IP 2.22ER 4.88SO 1.54BB 14.37FPts
DL Hall (4.0% Owned): Projected 4.79IP 2.38ER 5.12SO 1.9BB 13.27FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Miguel Amaya - 27 PA, 1.513 OPS
Matt Wallner - 31 PA, 1.259 OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 39 PA, 1.143 OPS
Matt Vierling - 32 PA, 1.046 OPS
Daniel Schneemann - 26 PA, 1.003 OPS
JJ Bleday - 36 PA, 0.997 OPS
Kyle Stowers - 30 PA, 0.993 OPS
Seth Brown - 32 PA, 0.976 OPS
Jacob Young - 32 PA, 0.973 OPS
Ramon Urias - 32 PA, 0.968 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Austin Slater CF (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.83R 0.15HR 0.6RBI 0.91SO 0.42BB 0.08SB 8.93FPts
Matt Wallner RF (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.24HR 0.73RBI 1.4SO 0.44BB 0.04SB 8.85FPts
Austin Wells C (26.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.16HR 0.82RBI 0.71SO 0.49BB 0.05SB 8.53FPts
LaMonte Wade Jr. RF (5.0% Owned): Projected 0.74R 0.12HR 0.54RBI 0.72SO 0.9BB 0.04SB 8.51FPts
Michael Conforto RF (15.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.13HR 0.7RBI 0.79SO 0.56BB 0.03SB 8.24FPts
Spencer Horwitz 1B (12.0% Owned): Projected 0.56R 0.15HR 0.66RBI 0.94SO 0.42BB 0.04SB 8.22FPts
Lawrence Butler OF (38.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.17HR 0.48RBI 1.07SO 0.29BB 0.13SB 8.19FPts
Ben Rice C (10.0% Owned): Projected 0.73R 0.22HR 0.64RBI 0.8SO 0.39BB 0.07SB 8.18FPts
J.P. Crawford SS (22.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.13HR 0.49RBI 0.97SO 0.67BB 0.05SB 8.15FPts
Mickey Gasper 1B (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.13HR 0.59RBI 0.75SO 0.47BB 0.06SB 8.15FPts
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