MLB Daily Notes - August 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
The “outs props” have just gone hilariously bad. 19 wins and 43 losses, -22 units on 62 bets. We could actually just take the opposite of the recommendation and probably make some money! But I’m just going to delete that - do not bet any of my model’s outs props - lol.
Yesterday - SP
Jack Flaherty had one of his best starts of the season in his new uniform.
20.7% SwStr%
51.1% Strike%
33.7% Ball%
8:2 K:BB
It was his fourth-best Ball% of the year and second-best SwStr%. He did use the cutter a lot more yesterday at 28% usage. He had been using that pitch in the 20%-30% range earlier in the year, but for the last couple of months it’s been below 15% or so. The slider usage came down from about 25% to a season-low 5%. So maybe the Orioles had some ideas about what he should do.
Here’s the breakdown yesterday:
The 30.8% SwStr% on the cutter is just insane. Prior to that start, his cutter came in at a 12.1% SwStr%. So either he improved the pitch somehow upon arrival to Baltimore, or this was just a pretty lucky outing. It could be a bit of both too. It’s always good to see a pitch mix change along with a big performance, but I think it would be silly to read too much into one start here. If the guy could just make a simple tweak to the cutter and throw it more often and then turn into an ace again - I would imagine he would have done that awhile ago!
Max Scherzer also debuted for his new team and struck out nine in six innings, giving up three runs and seven hits. The 20% SwStr% and 21 overall whiffs were very good, but that’s pretty much par for the course for Max. Basically, he’ll have a good start when he doesn’t allow multiple homers, and a bad start when he does. That’s a huge oversimplification but what do you want me to say - you start Scherzer every time he takes the hill and hope for the best!
Brandon Pfaadt finally put up a big start. Seven innings, one run, 7:1 K:BB. He also did it with a pitch mix change, throwing the sweeper way more, and that worked very well.
We talked about this with him early on. The sweeper has been working very well even in the Majors, but the fastball has been brutalized. So it makes sense for him to “hide” the fastball, as they say, but I don’t think that’s really a long-term sustainable solution. I wouldn’t bother with Pfaadt this year, but he’ll be someone to watch in the future if he can figure out a way to improve the fastball.
Bryan Woo is still taking the Major League hill for now, and he pitched pretty well against the Angels last night. He was coming off of a few less-than-good starts, so it was nice to see the bounce back. For the season:
11 GS
14.6% SwStr%
25.7% K%
7.0% BB%
50.2% Strike%
39.2% Ball%
.280 xwOBA
39% GB%
That’s a pretty good profile. The K-BB% above 18% is something you like to see. I just don’t think it matters too much for this year, I can’t imagine he really takes the hill every fifth game for them for the final two months, but if you have him right now I wouldn’t drop him until something like that actually happens.
It’s also hard to not mention that he has just a 21% K% over his last six starts and a 19% mark over his last five, but the SwStr% has stayed above 13% the whole time - so I think he’s a reliable 25%+ K% guy.
Michael Lorenzen also had a successful debut with a new team, getting the win for the Phillies in eight strong innings. He had just 10 whiffs on a 9.9% SwStr% and a 47.5% Strike%, so pretty mediocre numbers there - but he’s been having success this way for most of the year. Here’s the pitch mix:
He has all kinds of pitches to throw, but he’s stuck mostly to FF+SL+CH, and the slider and changeup have gotten enough whiffs to keep him above water. The four-seamer isn’t horrible by any means, and actually comes in with a Stuff+ above 110 and a pretty good .304 xwOBA. So Lorenzen isn’t bad, but I would call the move to the Phillies a downgrade given the park. I was going to say division too, but it doesn’t look like the Phillies have a very tough schedule down the stretch.
Matthew Liberator took Flaherty’s spot in the rotation and was awful again. He’s one of the better pitchers to stack against in DFS. Some of those other names I most want to stack hitters against:
Wainwright
Liberatore
Severino
Manoah
Corbin
Quantrill
Priester
Weaver
Syndergaard
Williamson
Gomber
Hill
Freeland
Taillon
Trev Williams
Lyles
Manning
Many others, but there’s a somewhat short list to help you out.
On to the reports!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray (vs. STL): 28.75 Points
2. Brady Singer (vs. NYM): 28.2 Points
3. Jack Flaherty (vs. TOR): 27.9 Points
4. Brandon Pfaadt (vs. SF): 25.95 Points
5. Max Scherzer (vs. CWS): 24.1 Points
6. Michael Lorenzen (vs. MIA): 23.8 Points
7. Julio Urias (vs. OAK): 22.85 Points
8. Adrian Houser (vs. PIT): 21.9 Points
9. Bryan Woo (vs. LAA): 17.9 Points
10. Tristan Beck (vs. ARI): 17.8 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (TEX): 21 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Jack Flaherty (BAL): 19 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 15 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
5. Luke Weaver (CIN): 14 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
6. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 14 Whiffs (56 Pitches)
7. Bryan Woo (SEA): 14 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
8. Brady Singer (KC): 13 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
9. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
10. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 54.8 Strike%, 26.2 Ball%
2. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 52.5 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
3. Max Scherzer (TEX): 52.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Jack Flaherty (BAL): 51.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 50.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
6. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 50.0 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
7. Johnny Cueto (MIA): 49.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
8. Sonny Gray (MIN): 48.1 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
9. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 48.0 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
10. Michael Lorenzen (PHI): 47.5 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
11. Adrian Houser (MIL): 47.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
12. Julio Urias (LAD): 47.1 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
13. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 46.4 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
14. Mitch Keller (PIT): 45.6 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
15. Cristian Javier (HOU): 45.1 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Mitch Keller lost velocity and got shelled by the Brewers. He now has a 7.48 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP with a 10.7% K-BB% since July 1st. Even if we go back to June 1st, the K-BB% is still horrid at 11%. What a shame!
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luke Weaver's FC velo (29 pitches) UP 3.7mph to 90.7
Shohei Ohtani's FF velo (22 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 98.7
Emmet Sheehan's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.4
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 77.4
Shohei Ohtani's ST velo (23 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.2
Mitch Keller's FC velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 87.9
Jack Flaherty's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 86.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Pfaadt's ST usage (39.3%) up 14.3 points
Clarke Schmidt's FC usage (43.9%) up 17.4 points
JP Sears's SL usage (21.1%) up 10.8 points
Jack Flaherty's FC usage (28.3%) up 18.4 points
Jameson Taillon's FC usage (32.6%) up 12.5 points
Julio Urias's SV usage (39.7%) up 10.2 points
Kevin Gausman's FS usage (51.5%) up 13.9 points
Luke Weaver's FC usage (41.4%) up 23.5 points
Sonny Gray's FF usage (40.3%) up 15.9 points
Touki Toussaint's SI usage (31.2%) up 10.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +20.9%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -20.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +20.5%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -20.1%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +19.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.9%
Luis Medina Sinker: +18.6%
Hogan Harris Cutter: -17.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +16.8%
Martin Perez Sinker: +16.2%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Jake Irvin Sinker: -15.2%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -14.7%
Martin Perez Changeup: -14.6%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -14.5%
Michael Grove Cutter: +14.5%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +14.0%
Dylan Cease Slider: -13.0%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Dylan Cease 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.6%
Hogan Harris 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 102 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 96 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 80 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 100 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 102 TBF, 41.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 34.1% K%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 31.4% K%
Domingo German - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 102 TBF, 37.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Drew Smyly - 83 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Gibson - 100 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.1% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 86 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 85 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 95 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 113 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 58.2% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 34.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 35.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Luis Medina - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Seth Lugo - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 1.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Bradish - +2.8% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Brady Singer - +3.9% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Drew Smyly - +2.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Matt Manning - +4.1% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Logan Allen - +3.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Michael Grove - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.7% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Ross Stripling - +2.5% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Luis Medina - +2.4% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Nick Martinez - +3.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Griffin Canning - +7.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Cole Ragans - +7.9% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. was one of those guys for the first few months on a lot of “bad luck” leaderboards, but he’s been absolutely tearing it up since July began. He’s slashing .342/.364/.649 with 7 homers and 8 steals in 119 PAs since July 1st. He has the fourth-most fantasy points scored in this time, he’s a fantasy stud - for sure a first-rounder again next year even with the bad park and lineup around him.
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Joc Pederson (SF) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Billy McKinney, Yesterday: 109.7 Previous High: 109.5
Brent Rooker, Yesterday: 116.6 Previous High: 112.6
Bryson Stott, Yesterday: 108.9 Previous High: 108.5
Hardest Hit Balls
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 116.6mph - foul
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.1mph - home_run
Mitch Garver (TEX) - 111.4mph - home_run
William Contreras (MIL) - 111.3mph - grounded_into_double_play
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.2mph - nan
MJ Melendez (KC) - 111.1mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.4mph - single
Michael A. Taylor (MIN) - 110.4mph - home_run
Joc Pederson (SF) - 110.3mph - field_out
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 109.7mph - nan
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 83 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 60 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 70 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Wander Franco - 75 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 70 PA, 0.221 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Matt Thaiss - 58 PA, 0.241 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Patrick Bailey - 64 PA, 0.178 wOBA, 0.245 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 80 PA, 0.309 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 80 PA, 0.261 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Willy Adames - 81 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Bottom 10
Jeimer Candelario - 71 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.138 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 66 PA, 0.512 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 78 PA, 0.389 wOBA, 0.259 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Justin Turner - 61 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, -0.126 Diff
Matt McLain - 79 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 84 PA, 0.485 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Taylor Ward - 63 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Chas McCormick - 77 PA, 0.516 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Nico Hoerner - 96 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.258 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Michael Harris II - 61 PA, 0.472 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Triston Casas - 58 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 58 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 59 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 49 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 52 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 77 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 0.495 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 58 PA, 0.493 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 0.48 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 83 PA, 0.475 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 58 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 82 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 69 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 57 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 83 PA, 160 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 64 PA, 98 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 72 PA, 139 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 84 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 83 PA, 133 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Marcus Semien - 78 PA, 118 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 88 PA, 127 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 66 PA, 110 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 63 PA, 100 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Jarren Duran - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake Fraley - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Samad Taylor - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Willi Castro - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Altuve - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Seiya Suzuki - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zack Gelof - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 16 Attempts (16 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Alex Call - 7 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Bryson Stott - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
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