MLB Daily Notes - August 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Six more shutout innings from Hunter Greene!
6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 11 K, 1 BB, 21% SwStr%, 56% Strike%
That gives him a 2.83 ERA on the year with an 18.7% K-BB%. Over his last six starts he has a 24.8% K-BB% and a ridiculous 0.48 ERA on a 0.66 WHIP. There’s some good luck in every sub-1 ERA, but Greene is an ace.
Another good one from Bailey Ober
7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB
He beat the White Sox, who are on their way to potentially 20 straight losses today. Incredible story.
I heard they’re also going to fire their manager, so I’m sure that will help!
Martin Perez struck out seven Rockies with an 18.8% SwStr%, which is completely uncharacteristic for him.
If you’re in a head-to-head league, it’s a pretty good idea to start planning out which pitchers might face the Road Rockies during that time. It’s such an advantage.
SPs against the Road Rockies this year have a 3.38 ERA with 361 strikeouts in 317.2 innings.
Nice Dodgers debut from Jack Flaherty
6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 16.2% SwStr%, 50.5% Strike%
The Dodgers like to tinker with guys, but there’s no real sign of change from Flaherty yesterday besides slightly more curveball usage, but that could have j just been natural, having nothing to do with the new team.
Flaherty is not in need of any changes either, of course, with his 2.73 SIERA. So this isn’t comparable at all to the Lance Lynn reclamation project the Dodgers took on last year.
DJ Herz just put up another solid line:
5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 13% SwStr%, 48.1% Strike%
He now sports a 22.9% K-BB% on the year with a 50.3% Strike%. Really impressive marks. He ranks 10th in the league in SwStr% for SPs with at least 10 starts. This guy should probably be added in most leagues. He’ll either get the Giants on Thursday or the Angels on Friday for his next start.
I feel like I was one of the first people talking about Herz and Schwellenbach, so it’s a positive sign for the method we’re working with here. And to re-iterate the method: we like to use K-BB% primarily, but if we’re having to evaluate a guy in just a few outings, we like to see
Low Ball%
High SwStr%
Those two things seem to be pretty decent at predicting what the future K-BB% will be, even in a pretty short sample. So if we just take a look at all pitchers above a 13% SwStr% and then sort by Ball%:
It’s not very useful right now since things have settled, but it’s a really good combination of stats to monitor at the beginning of a pitcher’s season.
If we look just at the last three weeks:
So that would be a good sign for guys like Brandon Pfaadt, Andrew Abbott, DJ Herz, and Gavin Williams - all of those names might be available in your league.
Williams faces off against the Orioles today. I don’t think I’d want to start him there, but we’ll keep a close eye on the result for sure.
We can apply this to the minor leagues as well, since we have pitch-by-pitch data for all levels (or at least I do!).
The Ball% stuff is weird in some of those leagues with robot umps, and SwStr% doesn’t translate very well from MiLB to MLB, but I would certainly rather have my pitcher doing well in these categories down there than doing poorly.
Joey Cantillo has made two starts now for Cleveland. He’s a decent prospect for them and he had posted a 30% K% in 29 AAA innings before getting the call.
Here’s the pitch mix so far:
Control issues for sure, and only an average of 12.3% SwStr%. Another prospect with big strikeouts in the minors without much fastball velo! He’s left-handed, which can help that, but you’ve gotta throw into the mid-90’s to be interesting to me at this point. It’s possible to have a lot of success without a ton of fastball velo, but it’s the exception rather than the rule and I’m not going to want to use a fantasy roster spot on a guy with low velo before they prove they can make it work.
Hitter Review
If we filter to catchers on the dashboard with at least 125 PAs this year, Joey Bart is second-best in OPS. I’m just saying!
12.1% Brl%, 26.4% K%, .342 xwOBA! This is nothing like what he’s done in the Majors before (career .672 OPS), so we’ll likely see some major regression soon, but it’s been nice so far. Don’t forget, too, that Bart was a first-round pick and is still just 27 years old. 27 ain’t 23, it’s a big difference there, but it’s not insane to think maybe the Giants gave up on him a bit too early.
I’m mostly writing this because I’m happy that the Pirates got lucky on him, but he’s also entering the picture in the fantasy world as the Pirates primary catcher. He’ll be in the middle of the lineup 4-5 times a week for the near future, and there’s definite power there even if the strikeouts do come up a bit as we go forward.
His dad also lives or lived in Lower Burrell, Pennsylvania, where I grew up, so that’s another reason to root for him.
Some other guys putting together nice fantasy production since the All Star Break (leaving out the obvious players):
Tyler Fitzgerald: .340/.397/.887, 6 HR, 0 SB
Anthony Volpe: .373/.383/.695, 5 HR, 4 SB
Lawrence Butler: .368/.429/.684, 3 HR, 2 SB
Xavier Edwards: .412/.492/.529, 1 HR, 8 SB
Jake Burger: .327/.403/.764, 7 HR, 0 SB
Eugenio Suarez: .315/.339/.704, 6 HR, 0 SB
Zach Neto: .289/.418/.444, 2 HR, 5 SB
Victor Robles: .346/.393/.500, 2 HR, 6 SB
Nolan Schanuel: .362/.492/.574, 3 HR, 0 SB
Hunter Renfroe: .320/.417/.560, 3 Hr, 0 SB
And how about some duds:
Brooks Lee: .229/.309/.229, 0 HR, 1 SB
Jake Cronenworth: .180/.268/.260, 1 Hr, 0 SB
Ian Happ: .143/.234/.268, 2 HR, 0 SB
Brandon Nimmo: .167/.303/.185, 0 HR, 3 SB
Bryce Harper: .117/.159/.300, 3 HR, 1 SB
Heliot Ramos: .232/.246/.357, 1 HR, 0 SB
Luis Robert: .148/.193/.259, 1 HR, 4 SB
Isaac Paredes: .093/.246/.204, 1 HR, 0 SB
Not a good start to Isaac Paredes’ Cubs career. He’s 2 for 20 with two doubles and no RBI.
That’s it for the Sunday notes! Podcast coming tomorrow with more weekend recaps and whatnot.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene
2. Martin Perez
3. Bailey Ober
4. Ronel Blanco
5. Jack Flaherty
6. Carlos Rodon
7. Michael Lorenzen
8. Cody Bradford
9. David Peterson
10. Jose Soriano
11. DJ Herz
12. Mitch Spence
13. Grant Holmes
14. Tanner Houck
15. Tanner Gordon
16. Zach Eflin
17. Zack Littell
18. Jose Berrios
19. Kyle Gibson
20. Garrett Crochet
21. Jordan Montgomery
22. Mitch Keller
23. Bryce Miller
24. Joey Cantillo
25. Jameson Taillon
26. Aaron Civale
27. Kyle Tyler
28. Kyle Harrison
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene (vs. SF): 38.3 Points
2. Jack Flaherty (vs. OAK): 27.9 Points
3. Bailey Ober (vs. CWS): 27.35 Points
4. DJ Herz (vs. MIL): 25.45 Points
5. Martin Perez (vs. COL): 23.7 Points
6. Carlos Rodon (vs. TOR): 22.99 Points
7. Jose Soriano (vs. NYM): 21.3 Points
8. Tanner Gordon (vs. SD): 18.3 Points
9. Kyle Gibson (vs. CHC): 18.15 Points
10. Zack Littell (vs. HOU): 17.76 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 21 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 17 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
3. Bailey Ober (MIN): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 17 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
5. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 16 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Martin Perez (SD): 15 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
7. Jose Soriano (LAA): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Michael Lorenzen (KC): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
9. Mitch Spence (OAK): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
10. David Peterson (NYM): 12 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mitch Keller (PIT): 58.3 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
2. Martin Perez (SD): 57.5 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 56.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
4. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 54.5 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
5. Tanner Houck (BOS): 53.9 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
6. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 53.8 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
7. Cody Bradford (TEX): 52.5 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
8. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 50.9 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
9. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
10. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 50.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
11. Grant Holmes (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 25.7 Ball%
12. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 48.3 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
13. DJ Herz (WSH): 48.1 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
14. Kyle Gibson (STL): 47.9 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
15. Tanner Gordon (COL): 47.7 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
2. Martin Perez: 80 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.44 POUT
3. David Peterson: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
4. Kyle Gibson: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
5. Tanner Gordon: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
6. Zach Eflin: 92 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.84 POUT
7. Jameson Taillon: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
8. Michael Lorenzen: 84 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Zack Littell: 79 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.94 POUT
10. Mitch Keller: 60 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Miller's ST velo (10 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 84.4
Bryce Miller's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.7
Jose Berrios's SV velo (15 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.1
Bryce Miller's FS velo (15 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 86.2
Jose Berrios's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.3
Slade Cecconi's FF velo (28 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.9
Michael Lorenzen's ST velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 81.1
Kyle Harrison's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.0
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.6
Kyle Harrison's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 82.7
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 78.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (25.0%) up 14.9 points
Bryce Miller's CU usage (14.3%) up 12.5 points
DJ Herz's FF usage (67.5%) up 11.3 points
Grant Holmes's FF usage (51.4%) up 12.1 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (35.8%) up 11.0 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (45.2%) up 13.1 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (51.6%) up 12.2 points
Kenta Maeda's SL usage (44.9%) up 13.7 points
Kolby Allard's CH usage (32.3%) up 16.6 points
Martin Perez's CU usage (26.2%) up 20.0 points
Michael Lorenzen's SI usage (32.1%) up 12.6 points
Tanner Gordon's SI usage (48.8%) up 30.3 points
Tanner Houck's ST usage (50.6%) up 48.2 points
Touki Toussaint's FS usage (47.2%) up 26.4 points
Zach Eflin's SI usage (45.7%) up 13.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +24.6%
Patrick Corbin Cutter: +21.6%
Paul Skenes Split-Finger: -19.9%
Brady Singer Sinker: +18.4%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +18.2%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -18.1%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -17.6%
Jose Quintana Curveball: +17.5%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -17.5%
Blake Snell Curveball: +16.2%
Bailey Falter Slider: +15.4%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +15.2%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +15.0%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +14.7%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -13.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -13.9%
Randy Vasquez Cutter: +13.9%
Gavin Williams Cutter: -13.6%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -13.4%
Kyle Freeland 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +12.9%
Framber Valdez Curveball: +12.8%
Tanner Houck Slider: -12.8%
Jonathan Cannon Sinker: -12.7%
Tanner Bibee Slider: -12.6%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.4%
Cade Povich Sinker: +12.4%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -12.4%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -12.3%
Andrew Abbott Sweeper: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 95 TBF, 39.7% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 65 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Carson Fulmer - 81 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 95 TBF, 40.0% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 38.7% K%
Nick Pivetta - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 35.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 33.8% K%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Colin Rea - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 38.7% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 67 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 95 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 65 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Grant Holmes - 66 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 73 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Michael Wacha - 70 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Charlie Morton - 64 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 87 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Taj Bradley - 64 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 96 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 71 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 77 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Bryan Woo - 64 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Cade Smith - 41 TBF, 39.0 K%, 4.9 BB%, 54.5% GB%
DJ Herz - 60 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 43.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 77 TBF, 27.3 K%, 7.8 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Joe Ryan - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 65 TBF, 32.3 K%, 1.5 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Michael King - 46 TBF, 32.6 K%, 6.5 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.6 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 38.7 K%, 0.0 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Taj Bradley - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 6.2 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Patrick Corbin: 7.27 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 9.3 ERA, 5.96 SIERA
Sonny Gray: 5.81 ERA, 2.83 SIERA
Nick Lodolo: 6.66 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 7.44 ERA, 4.71 SIERA
Carlos Carrasco: 6.56 ERA, 3.92 SIERA
Nestor Cortes: 6.93 ERA, 4.47 SIERA
Jake Irvin: 6.43 ERA, 4.35 SIERA
Joe Ryan: 5.22 ERA, 3.26 SIERA
Grayson Rodriguez: 5.14 ERA, 3.21 SIERA
Luckiest
Hunter Greene: 0.27 ERA, 3.4 SIERA
Blake Snell: 0.55 ERA, 2.82 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 2.17 ERA, 4.39 SIERA
Jose Soriano: 2.63 ERA, 4.78 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 1.45 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 1.04 ERA, 2.78 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.35 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 3.03 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
George Kirby: 2.08 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Tanner Houck: 4.79 ERA, 5.93 SIERA
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