MLB Daily Notes - August 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Shota Imanaga won the day with 19 whiffs, a 20.7% SwStr%, and a 10:1 K:BB over seven innings. He scared us for a few starts there in the middle of the season, but the bookends have been fantastic.
His rookie season now looks like this:
21 GS, 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 25.7% K%, 3.6% BB%, 22% K-BB%
You would certainly think that would put him in the running for NL Rookie of the Year, but currently Paul Skenes is a huuuge favorite there (-5000) while Imanaga (+2000) is in third (Jackson Merrill is at +1500).
Framber Valdez nearly threw a no-hitter but then ended up giving a home run in the 9th and finished with this line:
8.2 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB
It was a 15% SwStr% and a surprisingly low 43% Strike%. Effectively wild, I guess.
Valdez has been getting a ton more whiffs since the All Star Break. He has a 17.2% SwStr% and a 29.4% K% in his four starts since then. Good stuff if you held onto Valdez through some of those tougher times. The ERA is down to 3.67 and the WHIP is 1.21. Those are both far from elite, so it’s still been a down year for Valdez, but he’s making up for some of that now.
Brayan Bello has continued to raise his season SwStr%, posting a 14.6% mark yesterday on a 47.2% Strike%. It wasn’t a good box sore results, however:
4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB
His season marks:
12.7% SwStr%, 22.2% K%, 8.3% BB%
But his last seven starts:
15.9% SwStr%, 25.9% K%, 6.9% BB%
It’s interesting that seven starts ago he introduced a four-seamer. That would get us excited about the immediate whiff increase, however the usage of the pitch hasn’t been very significant.
He’s used it just 8% of the time since debuting it. It has gotten whiffs (14.3% SwStr%), but not much else (41% Strike%, 41% Ball%). He doesn’t have great command of it. It’s possible that the presence of that pitch has made his other stuff play a bit better. Here are the numbers since introducing that pitch:
So the slider and changeup have been very good and the sinker has been a little bit better. He still has gotten hit pretty hard (.354 xwOBA, 1.57 HR/9), but the 19% K-BB% makes me think there might be something here. I could see Bello being better from here on out. He’s a talented arm and it’s good to see him tinkering with stuff. Maybe he’s figuring out how to put all of the puzzle pieces together.
Another start for Jeffrey Springs:
5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 3 BB, 11.5% SwStr%, 41.5% Strike%, 39.1% Ball%
That’s another discouraging one. He has not had the command, at least not yet, and the whiffs have been about average (12.3% SwStr%). If you’re in a deep league and you have him, you should still hold on. Two starts isn’t enough to cut him over, but he has not come out of the gates very well.
Colin Rea had the best start of his season with nine strikeouts. Whoopdey-friggin-doo!
In fact, 34.2 fantasy points is the best he’s ever done. His season 12.4% K-BB%, 8.9% SwStr%, and 45% Strike% show you that he’s not a fantasy option. But I have to give him some pub for the big outing there.
I swear he used to spell his first name with two L’s. I must be thinking of McHugh or someone.
And then we should highlight the two rookies that took a beating.
Max Meyer
4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, 7.9% SwStr%, 32.9% Strike%
Hayden Birdsong
2 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 1 K, 3 BB, 3.0% SwStr%, 42.4% Strike%
Let’s update both of their arsenals:
The issue with Meyer is clearly command. He has a 104 Stuff+ and a 107 Pitching+, so that’s encouraging, but the walk rate is near 10% now and he just hasn’t been able to earn many strikes. It’s only 500 pitches, so there’s plenty of time for change and development, but it’s not looking good for 2024 fantasy purposes.
Birdsong looks a bit better here:
He has the benefit of having made two starts against the Rockies, and that’s where 47 of his 89 whiffs (53%) have come from. That’s more than half of your whiffs in just two of your seven starts.
He has not had command of his fastball, which is a very bad thing. His Stuff+ is 108 and the Pitching+ is 96. There’s hope here if he can locate the fastball much better in the future. The slider and curveball have both been pretty good at getting strike (although again, the Rockies have really boosted his numbers).
I’m not rostering either guy in anything other than streamer-situation in standard redraft leagues.
One of my general pieces of advice going into this year was to be active in going after rookie SPs when they earn the call-up. That worked pretty well last year, but it’s been pretty disastrous this season.
Here’s a quick list of the rookie SPs I can find (excluding the ones who were drafted in most leagues like Skenes & Imanaga - they don’t fit the point of this section). I’m doing this largely from memory so forgive me if I miss anyone.
Slade Cecconi: 13 GS, 6.14 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15% K-BB%
Schwellenbach: 11 GS, 4.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 23% K-BB%
Cade Povich: 8 GS, 6.27 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 1.1% K-BB%
Ben Brown: 8 GS, 3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20.3% K-BB%
Nick Nastrini: 6 GS, 8.39 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, -4.9% K-BB%
Drew Thorpe: 9 GS, 5.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.1% K-BB%
Arrighetti: 20 GS, 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 15.3% K-BB%
Max Meyer: 6 GS, 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13.4% K-BB%
Robert Gasser: 5 GS, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 13.2% K-BB%
Christian Scott: 9 GS, 4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13.7% K-BB%
Jared Jones: 16 GS, 3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 19.1% K-BB%
Keaton Winn: 12 GS, 7.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.8% K-BB%
H Birdsong: 7 GS, 4.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 15.0% K-BB%
Mitch Parker: 20 GS, 4.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13.2% K-BB%
So it’s a really bad group of pitchers. Unless your choice was Schwellenbach, nobody you picked up as a rookie has made an overall positive impact on your fantasy squad. To be fair, none of these guys were can’t-miss prospects or anything like that. I mean we felt pretty good to get guys like Scott and Meyer on our teams, but other than that it wasn’t like the league’s top pitching prospects of the decade have been called up.
Hitter Review
James Wood had the best game of his young career. He homered, tripled, and scored four runs for 44 fantasy points. His season now:
132 PA, .270/.364/.426, .790 OPS, 3 HR, 12.7% Brl%, 33.3% K%, 12.1% BB%, 67% Cont%, .250 xAVG, .340 xwOBA, .412 BABIP, 59% GB%
His quickly things can change when you have a small sample. He has five hits, two triples, and a homer in his last three games. Prior to these three games he was slashing .248/.336/.352 for a .689 OPS.
The profile is very similar to Elly De La Cruz last season. I doubt he’ll ever steal as many bases as Elly has (I doubt almost anybody will ever steal as many bases as Elly has), but it’s a really good comp.
→ Hits the ball hard
→ Runs fast
→ Strikes out a lot
→ Hits ground balls
In addition to the ground ball problem, he hasn’t pulled much yet (29.6% Pull%, seven points below the league average). We’re talking about very few batted balls, so that also could change in a hurry, but we’re looking at a profile here that could pretty easily be not good at all for fantasy purposes. If he’s going to strike out this much, he’s going to have to really be efficient when he is putting balls in play. And if more than half of his batted balls are on the ground and a high percentage of his fly balls aren’t pulled, you’re not going to get many homers out of the guy. But the skills alone will result in some big games.
And none of this is to speak of the future. There’s a high likelihood that he improves in all of these problem areas and gets better and better, and the ceiling is a top-15 fantasy bat for sure.
Two bombs from Willy Adames. He’s having a very good season:
486 PA, .252/.335/.446, .782 OPS, 19 HR, 24% K%, 11% BB%
This is the best K% of his career and tied for the best walk rate (wtih last year). That turns into a much-improved batting average (.251 expected BA, so we can believe the .252 mark he sits here with), and that’s really the key for him. He has big pop and he hits in a good spot of a good lineup, so as long as he’s not hitting below .230, he’s a top-ten shortstop with ease.
Isaac Paredes hit his first home run as a Cub. A pulled fly ball in the first inning off of Pablo Lopez. And it was even a barrel! Shout out to him. It has not been a good beginning in blue though:
33 PA, .167/.242/.333, 18% K%, 6% BB%, 1 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI
He is on his way to a third-straight 20-homer season, but I can’t even tell you how many times I will not draft him next year.
C.J. Abrams had a nice game. He hit a home run on a ridiculous pitch.
That was the highest pitch hit for a home run of the season. You can measure that by the plate_z column in the savant data for you Python bro’s.
Your best high-ball hitters of the season using somewhat arbitrary pitch locations that I just picked.
Joc Pederson .495 xwOBA
Juan Soto .444
Jake Burger .443
Oneil Cruz .417
Vladimir Guerrero .415
William Contreras .413
Mark Vientos .404
Jose Altuve .395
Jordan Westburg .394
Nick Castellanos .393
Byron Buxton .393
Corey Seager .390
Steven Kwan .389
Ryan Mountcastle .389
Tommy Pham .386
Your worst:
Nolan Gorman .127
Korey Lee .139
Cavan Biggio .143
Paul DeJong .149
Max Schuemann .152
Jo Adell .155
Vidal Brujan .155
Ezequiel Tovar .156
Orlando Arcia .160
Ty France .164
Jack Suwinski .171
Ceddanne Rafaela .172
Davis Schneider .172
Daulton Varsho .174
J.P. Crawford .175
Nolan Gorman has been a mess this year:
376 PA, .200/.271/.406, .677 OPS, 38% K%, 8.8% BB%, 19 HR, 6 SB
That’s still a pretty good homer total for 376 PAs, but he’s killed you everywhere else and he’s also lost playing time lately, sitting even against righties sometimes.
Speaking of the Cardinals, they recalled Victor Scott II recently, and he hit his first Major League home run last night! Shout out to him! That brought his MLB career slash line to .092/.141/.185, good for a .325 OPS in 71 PAs!
He wasn’t even good in his time in AAA after the original demotion:
336 PA, .219/.302/.318, .621 OPS, 14.3% K%, 9.8% BB%, 6 HR, 29 SB
Lots of steals, but just a .302 OBP against bad pitching.
The lesson is that you should very rarely draft a fantasy hitter that doesn’t hit the ball reasonably hard.
If we look at every hitter with at least 100 balls in play this year and check out the names under a 100mph 90th-percentile EV:
Merrifield, Nicky Lopez, Guillorme, Biggio, Arraez, X Edwards, A Frazier, Espinal, Clement, Kwan, Newman, Mendick, Ahmed, Schanuel, Brujan, A Martin, Jankowski, Grossman, Nick Gordon
in bold are the three names that are owned in fantasy leagues. The way those three guys have become useful are by striking out almost never and hitting a ton of line drives (and stealing bases in the case of Edwards).
Let’s wrap this up by looking at some struggling stud hitters of the past two weeks.
Trea Turner:
.114/.170/.136, 0 HR, 0% Brl%, 23% K%, .185 xwOBA, 61% GB%
Nothing too terrifying here. It’s pretty easy to go two weeks and just not hit a ball well. Big league pitchers are good, hitting is hard. You’re certainly not budging off of Turner.
Spencer Steer:
.095/.156/.143/.298, 0 HR, 0% Brl%, 22 K%, .198 xwOBA
Same story here. Not a big strikeout issue or anything like that, just hasn’t gotten into many balls in these 45 PAs. Unlike Turner, Steer has a history of having some pretty nasty slumps.
Bryce Harper
.174/.208/.348, 2 HR, 3.3% Brl%, 33% K%, 4.2% BB%, .209 xwOBA
The 33% K% is concerning for Harper here. His hard hit rate is 60% though, so it’s not like he’s unable to swing the bat. There’s randomness in every category over this short of a sample. You’re not going to bench the guy, obviously, but you’d like to see him get some more balls in play soon.
Luis Robert
.140/.178/.286, 0 HR, 4.2% Brl%, 42% K%, 4.4% BB%, 57% Contact%
Robert is a bit of a free-swinger, which opens him up to slumps, which we’ve seen a lot of in his career. The other thought that creeps into your mind here is motivation. I’m not typically a believer in that kind of stuff, although it does need some more exploring that I’ve been meaning to do, but it does make sense that it would be tough to be motivated when your team is headed towards the worst record in MLB history.
The idea I have is to go back several years and do this.
Find the worst couple of teams in the league
Compare the individuals hitting stats from September with what they did in April-May
If there’s a consistent pattern of guys being worse in September when the games don’t matter as compared to early in the season, then you’ve got something.
I think most people would expect players to perform worse due to a lack of motivation. As for me, I don’t expect to find that. But let’s see if I can pull it off and maybe shed some light on that question.
Talk to you all later!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga
2. Albert Suarez
3. Framber Valdez
4. Kyle Freeland
5. MacKenzie Gore
6. Clayton Kershaw
7. Colin Rea
8. Luis Castillo
9. Chris Bassitt
10. Brayan Bello
11. Sonny Gray
12. Keider Montero
13. Luis Severino
14. Bryce Elder
15. Jeffrey Springs
16. Nick Lodolo
17. Tyler Mahle
18. Jonathan Cannon
19. Cristopher Sanchez
20. Seth Lugo
21. Pablo Lopez
22. Max Meyer
23. Ross Stripling
24. Hayden Birdsong
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Colin Rea (vs. ATL): 34.15 Points
2. Shota Imanaga (vs. MIN): 33.95 Points
3. Chris Bassitt (vs. BAL): 30.75 Points
4. Keider Montero (vs. SEA): 28.5 Points
5. Framber Valdez (vs. TEX): 27.11 Points
6. Sonny Gray (vs. TB): 24.75 Points
7. Nick Lodolo (vs. MIA): 24.5 Points
8. Albert Suarez (vs. TOR): 20.85 Points
9. Jonathan Cannon (vs. OAK): 20.7 Points
10. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. DET): 20.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 19 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Framber Valdez (HOU): 16 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
3. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Luis Castillo (SEA): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Brayan Bello (BOS): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Sonny Gray (STL): 13 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
7. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 13 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
8. Keider Montero (DET): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
9. Bryce Elder (ATL): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
10. Albert Suarez (BAL): 11 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Colin Rea (MIL): 54.3 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
2. Luis Severino (NYM): 52.8 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
3. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 52.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 51.9 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
5. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 51.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
6. Kyle Freeland (COL): 50.7 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
7. Luis Castillo (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Albert Suarez (BAL): 49.3 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
9. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
10. Brayan Bello (BOS): 47.2 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
11. Sonny Gray (STL): 47.2 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
12. Keider Montero (DET): 45.9 Strike%, 41.2 Ball%
13. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 45.5 Strike%, 42.4 Ball%
14. Bryce Elder (ATL): 44.7 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
15. Ross Stripling (OAK): 44.3 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez: 107 Pitches, 26 Outs, 4.12 POUT
2. Colin Rea: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
3. Shota Imanaga: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
4. Darren McCaughan: 55 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.58 POUT
5. Chris Bassitt: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
6. Albert Suarez: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
7. Ross Stripling: 79 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.94 POUT
8. Cristopher Sanchez: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Keider Montero: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Sonny Gray: 106 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.05 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 87.8
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (24 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 84.1
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (13 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 92.3
Darren McCaughan's ST velo (15 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.5
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 91.5
Dane Dunning's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.2
Dane Dunning's SI velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brayan Bello's SL usage (40.4%) up 17.7 points
Brent Honeywell Jr.'s SC usage (26.5%) up 13.1 points
Brent Honeywell Jr.'s SL usage (16.2%) up 11.4 points
Dane Dunning's SI usage (49.2%) up 13.4 points
Darren McCaughan's FF usage (29.1%) up 15.9 points
Darren McCaughan's CH usage (27.3%) up 16.3 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (29.9%) up 12.2 points
Framber Valdez's SL usage (12.1%) up 10.1 points
Hayden Birdsong's CU usage (34.8%) up 14.6 points
Kyle Freeland's CU usage (32.9%) up 14.7 points
Luis Severino's SI usage (28.1%) up 10.4 points
Nick Lodolo's SI usage (23.2%) up 12.8 points
Pablo Lopez's CH usage (30.7%) up 10.3 points
Randy Rodriguez's CH usage (19.6%) up 13.7 points
Ross Stripling's FC usage (30.4%) up 29.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +21.3%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -20.0%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -19.8%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -18.1%
Brady Singer Sinker: +18.1%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.2%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +16.9%
Blake Snell Curveball: +16.2%
Hayden Birdsong 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +15.0%
Jose Quintana Curveball: +14.4%
Roddery Munoz Sinker: +14.2%
James Paxton Sinker: +13.9%
Randy Vasquez Cutter: +13.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -13.9%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -13.4%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Tanner Houck Slider: -12.8%
Ross Stripling Curveball: +12.5%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.5%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.4%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.3%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.2%
Andrew Abbott Sweeper: +12.2%
JP Sears Sweeper: -12.1%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 74 TBF, 39.3% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 102 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Bryce Elder - 70 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 104 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 69 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 71 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Colin Rea - 67 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 73 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 74 TBF, 40.5% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 38.7% K%
Dylan Cease - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Carlos Rodon - 71 TBF, 35.2% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Gavin Williams - 87 TBF, 34.5% K%
Colin Rea - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Nick Pivetta - 85 TBF, 34.1% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Bryce Elder - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 38.7% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 85 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Colin Rea - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Bryce Elder - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 104 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 68 TBF, 69.2% GB%
Dylan Cease - 76 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 96 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Luis Castillo - 104 TBF, 57.3% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 106 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 102 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 105 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Mitch Spence - 71 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 111 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Jameson Taillon - 70 TBF, 54.5% GB%
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