MLB Daily Notes - August 8th
Standout performances from Williams, Ragans, and Peralta. The Pirates knock out Strider, Pete Alonso double-dongs, Tatis is suffering from some unheard of bad luck, and much more.
Prop bet trackers:
Some big-time pitching performances to talk about from last night!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Gavin Williams had the best start of his young career.
7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 1 BB
He went for an 18.9% SwStr%, a 57.8% Strike%, and a 32.2% Ball%. Those are crazy high numbers. It came against the Blue Jays too (although without Bichette that lineup is pretty middle-of-the-road.
He went heavy fastball usage but it worked great with a 67% Strike% on that pitch. And then the slider and curveball worked nicely as well.
Any time you see a 20%+ SwStr% on a fastball you know there was some luck/variance involved. It’s not necessarily luck I guess, but it’s just not something that can be sustained against Major League pitchers - but certainly a good sign for Williams. For the year now:
48.4% Strike
13.2% SwStr%
24.3% K%
10.9% BB%
.643 OPS
37% GB%
So he’s been a bit too high in the walk department and just “okay” in the strikeout front, but it’s not the worst profile in the world and there’s clearly a lot of room for improvement as we move forward.
The next surprise performance was Cole Ragans
6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB
He threw up a 17.3% SwStr% with a 51% Strike%, and also put up a fantastic 61.5% GB%. It felt extra good to me as someone who streamed the guy for this two-start week!
For the year between some time in the Texas bullpen and the Royals rotation:
13.7% SwStr%, 48.1% Strike%, 26.3% K%, 9.7% BB%, .654 OPS, 43% GB%
In his 3 starts with Kansas City:
15.1% SwStr%, 51.3% Strike%, 31.4% K%, 5.7% BB%, 48% GB%
Here’s the pitch mix from these three starts:
A lot of options in the arsenal there with a pretty solid fastball backed up by a great changeup and a nice trio of other options to use.
But, there’s probably still a good amount of over-performing here, but Ragans seems to be worthy of deeper fantasy league consideration. His next start will either be Saturday against the Cardinals or Monday against the Mariners.
Freddy Peralta just absolutely smacked the Rockies. He almost won the daily notes triple crown, with only Williams beating him in Strike%. 13 strikeouts in seven innings with just one hit and one run allowed. He put up a 33% SwStr%. That was the second-best SwStr% of the season!
A whiff on every third pitch - really insane stuff. The average SwStr% output from an SP this year is just 11.8%.
Eury Perez re-appeared and did do the strike out thing with a 20.5% SwStr% and seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings, but he gave up four runs and left after just 78 pitches. The pitch count thing is certainly going to be limited as we finish out this year, I wouldn’t expect any 90+ pitch outings from him, and that’ll make it pretty tough to quality starts if that’s the kind of league you’re in - but the guy is clearly already very tough to hit, so I think he should be started everywhere.
Brandon Williamson on the other side of that game had a really good start with nine strikeouts and a 19.1% SwStr%. But that’s pretty uncharacteristic from him given his season line:
10.5% SwStr%, 46.1% Strike%, 20.5% K%, 9.3% BB%
Dylan Cease had a weird one
5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 7 BB
He joined Snell, Kopech, Kaprielian, Manoah, Medina, Keller, Flaherty, and Brad Keller as pitchers to walk 7 or more in a single outing. Good stuff from Dylan Cease! That guy is going to go from top-10 to outside of the top 30 next year, I would think.
And then the Pirates ran Spencer Strider out of the game after just 2.2 innings, his shortest outing of the year. He walked three, struck out three, and got barreled twice (no homers though). It wasn’t some like egregiously bad performance from Strider, just missing the command and having plenty of ill fortune. The Pirates were up 6-0 in the third inning and held on to win just 7-6, you can never feel safe against the Braves!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (vs. COL): 43.15 Points
2. Gavin Williams (vs. TOR): 38.55 Points
3. Brandon Williamson (vs. MIA): 33.21 Points
4. Pablo Lopez (vs. DET): 32.75 Points
5. Cole Ragans (vs. BOS): 32.01 Points
6. Patrick Sandoval (vs. SF): 23.41 Points
7. Dylan Cease (vs. NYY): 23.19 Points
8. Kodai Senga (vs. CHC): 20.1 Points
9. Ken Waldichuk (vs. TEX): 19.3 Points
10. Logan Webb (vs. LAA): 18.56 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 31 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
2. Cole Ragans (KC): 18 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
3. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 17 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Gavin Williams (CLE): 17 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Eury Perez (MIA): 16 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
7. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 16 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
8. Drew Smyly (CHC): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
9. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
10. Dane Dunning (TEX): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gavin Williams (CLE): 57.8 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 57.4 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
3. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 54.2 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
4. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 53.9 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
5. Cole Ragans (KC): 51.0 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
6. Logan Webb (SF): 50.9 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
7. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 48.9 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
8. Eury Perez (MIA): 47.4 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
9. Drew Smyly (CHC): 46.4 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
10. Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR): 46.2 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
11. Kodai Senga (NYM): 45.9 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
12. Dylan Cease (CWS): 45.2 Strike%, 44.2 Ball%
13. Spencer Strider (ATL): 44.4 Strike%, 39.7 Ball%
14. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 44.4 Strike%, 38.4 Ball%
15. Seth Lugo (SD): 43.7 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 78.5
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.0
Cole Ragans's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 91.4
Gavin Williams's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.2
Tony Gonsolin's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.2
Kodai Senga's FO velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.0
Pablo Lopez's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.8
Patrick Sandoval's CH velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 80.9
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Brayan Bello gritted out a good starting, giving up just one earned run - but he had just two strikeouts and a 10% SwStr%. That’s mostly because he used the sinker an absolute ton:
That got him to a 61% GB% - which is a good thing to do if you’re not going to strike anybody out.
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brayan Bello's SI usage (57.6%) up 22.7 points
Dane Dunning's SI usage (46.8%) up 14.3 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (21.9%) up 17.4 points
Kodai Senga's FC usage (37.6%) up 13.7 points
Osvaldo Bido's SI usage (37.3%) up 13.8 points
Peter Lambert's SL usage (28.4%) up 11.4 points
Seth Lugo's SI usage (32.4%) up 14.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +28.8%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -20.1%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +19.4%
Hogan Harris Cutter: -17.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.8%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +15.3%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -14.5%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Michael Grove 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -13.6%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Changeup: +12.8%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +12.7%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Luis Medina Sinker: +12.2%
Hogan Harris 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
We will see Brady Singer take the hill again tonight. Over his last four starts:
27 IP, 27 K, 3 BB, 14.2% SwStr%, 48.7% Strike%, 33.5% Ball%
And he’s near the top of the CSW% leaders. The pitch mix hasn’t changed, he’s still almost entirely sinker + slider, but something is working better recently. I’m going to chalk it up to the positive side of variance and not expect much from him tonight. More on that and more in the DFS preview that will be out this afternoon! We’re running HOT in DFS lately!
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 75 TBF, 38.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 75 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jon Gray - 68 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 41.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Kenta Maeda - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K%
Michael Grove - 76 TBF, 31.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 89 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Michael Grove - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 78 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Brayan Bello - 97 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 112 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 99 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 4.1 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Chase Silseth - 67 TBF, 38.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Cole Ragans - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.1 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 29.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 66.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Luis Castillo - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +4.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +3.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.1% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +4.2% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.6% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Cole Ragans - +9.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Nick Martinez - +2.9% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Hitters
James Outman kept the good times rolling
Is it a skill change? Is it a just another random stretch of good fortune? We can say that July 1st he has a good sample of 108 PAs with a lower 25% K% and a .995 OPS. So I’m willing to pick him up if he’s available.
Pete Alonso went deep twice and has bounced back quite amazingly from when we suspected he had returned too quickly from his injury and was playing injured. Since the break:
89 PA, .269/.337/.603, 7 HR, 15.6% Brl%, 18% K%
Fernando Tatis Jr. is having one of the worst-luck stretches we’ve seen all year. The separation between the lines here is really something to see:
Zach Gelof has an .872 OPS since debuting this year with five homers, a 12% Brl%, but a 32.5% K%. His 60% Contact% shows a guy that is going to strike out a bunch, but at least he gets the ball in the air (28% GB%). Not a horrible desperateion power bat in very leagues.
Mitch Garver is another guy you could target in two-catcher leagues if available, he’s playing more with Jonah Heim out - and he’s one of the better bats at the catcher position. And with Josh Jung out, there’s extra PAs to go around, so Garver might just end up being this team’s primary DH. He’s split time almost exactly evenly between catcher and DH this year, so I think he’s a good bet to play most days and be a positive at the catcher position - so he’s an add even in more shallow leagues, I think! He has an .854 OPS on the year with a 14.7% Brl% and a 28.9% K%.
Now let’s finish this bad boy up, back later with the slate preview post!
Multiple Barrels
J.D. Davis (SF) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
James Outman (LAD) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Luis Campusano (SD) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Xander Bogaerts (SD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 113.5mph - field_out
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 112.2mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.7mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.7mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.4mph - single
James Outman (LAD) - 111.2mph - single
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 110.9mph - single
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.8mph - single
Michael A. Taylor (MIN) - 110.6mph - nan
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 110.6mph - nan
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff
Will Brennan - 60 PA, 0.258 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Salvador Perez - 70 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Joc Pederson - 59 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Brett Baty - 63 PA, 0.211 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Paul DeJong - 68 PA, 0.174 wOBA, 0.227 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Carlos Correa - 80 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 58 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 66 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Bottom 10
Sal Frelick - 62 PA, 0.436 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 82 PA, 0.553 wOBA, 0.444 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Will Benson - 58 PA, 0.392 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 81 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.238 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 77 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.235 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 65 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 66 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 82 PA, 0.486 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Christian Walker - 79 PA, 0.417 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Nico Hoerner - 91 PA, 0.384 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Austin Riley - 79 PA, 57 BIP, 15 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 54 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 69 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 76 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 71 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 52 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Danny Jansen - 49 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 48 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Gary Sanchez - 54 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 57 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 79 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 82 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 74 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Mitch Garver - 52 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
James Outman - 67 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Myles Straw - 51 PA, 113 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 91 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 82 PA, 114 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 143 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 77 PA, 147 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Cody Bellinger - 86 PA, 169 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 135 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 63 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 53 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 78 PA, 167 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
TJ Friedl - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Altuve - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Freddie Freeman - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Willi Castro - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Zack Gelof - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
TJ Friedl - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Jarren Duran - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 76 PA, 17.1 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 54 PA, 16.7 K%, 25.6 Brl%
Ian Happ - 86 PA, 16.3 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 59 PA, 18.6 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Luis Rengifo - 81 PA, 18.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Max Kepler - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 76 PA, 15.8 K%, 20.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.