MLB Daily Notes - August 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert had himself a spike game against the Padres. Seven shutout innings with a dozen strikeouts.
The splitter and slider were key there - with a 20% and 25% SwStr% respectively - and he set them up well with a 57% Strike% on the four-seamer.
Gilbert has quietly had a very good season with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP - that makes him the #7 SP on my player rater. Just staying healthy is the main key to being high on the rater, and he’s done that. He’s also maintained a K-BB% above 20% - so he’s been great.
Kutter Crawford had one of the goofiest starts of the year.
3.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB
78 pitches, 20 whiffs, 25.6% SwStr%, 57.7% Strike%, 28.2% Ball%
So he didn’t do well at all, got hit around - but when they weren’t racking up hits on him they were not making contact. The xwOBA was .351, which isn’t great - but the actual wOBA was ridiculous at .560 - he didn’t deserve to do that poorly.
I’m fine with holding Crawford, he should get a Sunday start with the Tigers. The whiffs have been great and the walks haven’t been an issue - and that’s the main thing I look for. The biggest downside with him is the pitch counts - they’re not letting him get past 90 pitches and that means he has to be pretty efficient to get through five or six innings.
Tanner Bibee turned in another strong one with seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays, following up Gavin Williams’ great start two days ago. He only had 11 whiffs on 11 pitches and the Strike% was really low at 43%, but he didn’t walk anybody!
Here’s the season pitch mix update:
It’s still not a super appealing mix with a mediocre 12.3% SwStr% and 46% Strike%. There really isn’t even a standout pitch, just a decent/good slider+changeup combo. Since the all-star break, the slider has been at a 20.9% SwStr%, and I think he reworked it a bit. He’s throwing it harder now and I believe it moves differently as well - so that’s a good sign, but not something to put a ton of trust in.
Framber Valdez got trucked by the Orioles after his no-hitter, six earned runs but he still completed seven innings. only five whiffs and three strikeouts. And then Felix Bautista backed him up by also blowing it big time, giving up four runs in the 9th and the Astros managed to win the game! I had to double-check that they won the game there. The one thing you don’t look at much as a fantasy guy is who actually wins the games. I can practically name you the entire 25-man roster for every team, but I will often have no idea what teams have good records!
Jameson Taillon put up another good start, this time against the Mets. A 52.1% Strike% and 30.2% Ball% were very good, and he got through seven innings with two runs and seven strikeouts on a 12.5% SwStr%.
Over the last 30 days, Taillon has a 2.17 ERA, a 0.99 WHP, and five wins in six starts - that puts him only behind Burnes and Cole on the L30 Player Rater. Pretty crazy stuff.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert (vs. SD): 43.15 Points
2. Tanner Bibee (vs. TOR): 28.15 Points
3. Jameson Taillon (vs. NYM): 27.95 Points
4. Zach Eflin (vs. STL): 27.35 Points
5. Max Scherzer (vs. OAK): 26.75 Points
6. Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. MIN): 25.55 Points
7. Sonny Gray (vs. DET): 25.3 Points
8. Clarke Schmidt (vs. CWS): 24.99 Points
9. Julio Urias (vs. ARI): 24.5 Points
10. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. CLE): 23.35 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 20 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
2. Sonny Gray (MIN): 17 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Lucas Giolito (LAA): 17 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
4. Josiah Gray (WSH): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Trevor Williams (WSH): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
7. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 14 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
8. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 13 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
9. Max Scherzer (TEX): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
10. Mitch Keller (PIT): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 59.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
2. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 57.7 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
3. Sonny Gray (MIN): 55.6 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
4. Zach Eflin (TB): 53.5 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
5. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 52.1 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
6. Tanner Banks (CWS): 52.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
7. JP Sears (OAK): 51.2 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
8. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 51.1 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
9. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
10. Yonny Chirinos (ATL): 49.4 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
11. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 49.3 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
12. Nick Martinez (SD): 49.1 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
13. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 49.1 Strike%, 40.6 Ball%
14. Julio Urias (LAD): 48.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
15. Trevor Williams (WSH): 47.6 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
It was more of the same for Grayson Rodriguez, this time against the Astros. He wasn’t dominant with a low 11.8% SwStr% and a 46.2% Strike%, but he once again got through a quality start:
6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB
He keeps getting it done, so you should start him I suppose - but you’d really like to see more whiffs given how nasty his stuff is/can be. The slider velocity was up yesterday as well, so his arm is healthy if nothing else.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luke Weaver's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 90.4
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.6
Braxton Garrett's FF velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.6
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (29 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.0
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 77.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Wood's CH usage (45.8%) up 19.9 points
Braxton Garrett's FF usage (17.7%) up 11.9 points
Carlos Carrasco's CH usage (40.0%) up 10.2 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's FF usage (55.9%) up 13.4 points
Grayson Rodriguez's SL usage (34.4%) up 20.2 points
JP Sears's SL usage (22.1%) up 11.3 points
Luke Weaver's ST usage (13.5%) up 12.7 points
Tanner Banks's CH usage (32.0%) up 17.5 points
Trevor Williams's SI usage (23.3%) up 11.0 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (36.8%) up 14.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +28.8%
Yonny Chirinos Split-Finger: +20.1%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Hogan Harris Cutter: -17.7%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -16.9%
Zack Greinke 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Yonny Chirinos Slider: -16.6%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: +15.7%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +15.3%
Eury Perez Slider: +14.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.8%
Mike Clevinger Changeup: +14.3%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.1%
Michael Grove 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Gerrit Cole 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -13.6%
Noah Syndergaard Sinker: -13.3%
Brennan Bernardino Sinker: +13.0%
Brennan Bernardino Curveball: -13.0%
Brandon Pfaadt Sweeper: +12.9%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Ross Stripling Changeup: +12.8%
Bryce Elder Sinker: +12.7%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.3%
Luis Medina Sinker: +12.2%
Hogan Harris 4-Seam Fastball: +12.1%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -12.0%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: -12.0%
Luke Weaver Changeup: -12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Highest BABIPs since 7/1 (5 GS minimum)
Luis Severino .429
Michael Grove .419
Joe Ryan .403
Jon Gray .384
Hunter Brown .384
Dylan Cease .380
Justin Steele .380
Spencer Strider .375
Paul Blackburn .368
Marcus Stroman .365
Lowest:
Corbin Burnes .156
Cristopher Sanchez .188
Patrick Sandoval .200
Michael Kopech .203
Dean Kregielmer .212
Carlos Rodon .214
Johan Oviedo .220
Justin Verlander .223
Gerrit Cole .223
Michael Lorenzen .225
Onward!
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 102 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Jon Gray - 68 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 85 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 41.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Kenta Maeda - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Gavin Williams - 82 TBF, 31.7% K%
Joe Ryan - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
George Kirby - 90 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 89 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 85 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 97 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 91 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 97 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Chase Silseth - 67 TBF, 38.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Cole Ragans - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.1 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 29.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 58 TBF, 32.8 K%, 1.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 66.0% GB%
Zach Eflin - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 1.1 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Gibson - +4.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Freddy Peralta - +3.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.2% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Nick Martinez - +2.4% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Michael Grove - +6.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Cole Ragans - +9.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Jakob Junis - +3.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Hitters
Maybe I should have seen the CJ Abrams breakout season coming, but I didn’t. Two barrels yesterday, although neither of them found a fence to go over.
Season:
.261/.307/.424, 11 HR, 27 SB, 6.6% Brl%, 20% K%
Last 60:
.301/.345/.470, 5 HR, 21 SB, 7.9% Brl%, 17.5% K%
With that many steals, you don’t need a ton else to be a very valuable fantasy asset - and he’s been bringing the batting average and a few homers as well - so he’s been very good.
Multiple Barrels
C.J. Abrams (WSH) 7 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Joey Meneses (WSH) 9 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 9 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nolan Jones (COL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Abraham Almonte, Yesterday: 111.8 Previous High: 110.7
Nolan Jones, Yesterday: 115.3 Previous High: 114.2
Tom Murphy, Yesterday: 111.4 Previous High: 110.7
Hardest Hit Balls
Nolan Jones (COL) - 115.3mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.3mph - home_run
William Contreras (MIL) - 113.5mph - home_run
Matt Olson (ATL) - 113.4mph - nan
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 113.3mph - nan
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 113.1mph - home_run
Riley Adams (WSH) - 112.2mph - nan
Abraham Almonte (NYM) - 111.8mph - nan
Javier Baez (DET) - 111.5mph - single
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 84 PA, 0.208 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.172 Diff
Spencer Torkelson - 78 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Will Brennan - 56 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 66 PA, 0.207 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Salvador Perez - 74 PA, 0.272 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 63 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 0.312 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Paul DeJong - 67 PA, 0.176 wOBA, 0.232 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Andrew McCutchen - 58 PA, 0.318 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 0.325 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Bottom 10
Whit Merrifield - 82 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.242 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Freddie Freeman - 81 PA, 0.542 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 78 PA, 0.366 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Mike Moustakas - 70 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 64 PA, 0.463 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Jose Siri - 56 PA, 0.276 wOBA, 0.167 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Sal Frelick - 63 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 81 PA, 0.492 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 65 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
TJ Friedl - 74 PA, 0.365 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 46 PA, 23 BIP, 7 Brls, 30.4 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Austin Riley - 79 PA, 56 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.2 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 70 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 46 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 53 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 76 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 72 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 46 PA, 0.532 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 46 PA, 0.475 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 57 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 52 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 79 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 57 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 82 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 74 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 81 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Myles Straw - 50 PA, 111 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 77 PA, 142 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 68 PA, 127 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 81 PA, 111 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Cody Bellinger - 85 PA, 172 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 54 PA, 80 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 133 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 76 PA, 167 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 76 PA, 140 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Bobby Witt Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
TJ Friedl - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Altuve - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Freddie Freeman - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Willi Castro - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Lane Thomas - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jarren Duran - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Zack Gelof - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.