MLB Daily Notes - August 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We’re getting down to the time where you’re checking the actual real-life standings to see what the playoffs are looking like. Some notable streaks:
Guardians have lost five in a row
Braves have lost five in a row
Padres have won five in a row
Pirates have lost four in a row
The Royals are now in a playoff spot. And in case you missed it yesterday on Twitter, they are my new team. Every year there is a day where I ditch my allegiance to the Pirates and move on to other things. Those other things are usually
my fantasy team
fantasy football
But sometimes I pick another team to be a pretend fan of for a few weeks. And this year, it’s the Royals. Why the Royals?
They are blue, and I like blue
They are in Kansas, and I like Kansas
They might be cheating
Now, most people would use that third bullet point as a reason to not root for them. But I actually have sympathy for a cheater. I have boldly, bravely, fearlessly came out as pro-sign-stealing in the past, and I remain STAUNCH.
I am getting goosebumps at the bravery of those tweets. Few people are willing to stand up this strongly for their beliefs.
You might not even know what I’m referring to the with the Royals. So let me tell you.
Royals Home / Road Splits
Home: .268/.325/.443, .768 OPS, 8.1% Brl%, 17% K%
Road: .235/.285/.382, .667 OPS, 7.0% Brl%, 20% K%
Those are big differences!!!!!! Their SLG differential is second to only the ROCKIES:
Home/Road SLG Differential 2024
COL +.064
KCR +.061
MIN +.056
HOU +.049
TEX +.042
We can explain the Rockies differential, but the Royals home park isn’t a hitter’s park, so it’s A LOT MORE SUSPICIOUS.
Any time you see me using a lot of exclamation points and capital letters, that’s a hint that I’m not being serious. I doubt they’re cheating, it’s probably just random stuff along with some fine-tuning of their hitters to their unique ballpark.
But if they are cheating, we should consider how that would work. The way the Astros did it was by stealing signs and signaling pitches to their batters. That would seem to be the most likely way to do it. So how could we check that? I would say CHASE RATE would be a good one to look at. If they know when a slider is coming, they’d be much less likely to swing at it when it’s not a strike. RIGHT!?
Royals Chase%
At Home: 30.2%
On Road: 30.3%
No difference there.
I am a proud American, so I believe in the idea that you are innocent until proven guilty. And in my eight minutes of typing numbers, I have been unable to prove the Royals guilty of cheating. Therefore, they are innocent.
So… darn, back to the drawing board in picking my new favorite team.
Pitcher Review
There wasn’t much interesting on the pitching side yesterday, but a few points to make.
Bryan Woo got deep into the game:
6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, 10.2% SwStr%, 51.1% Strike%
The SwStr% was surprisingly low at 10.2%, but the Strike% was strong at 51.1%. For the season now he has a pretty bad 10.7% SwStr% with a 19.2% K%. So he hasn’t been getting whiffs or strikeouts. What he has done is throw a ton of strikes, like a ton. He has a 2.7% BB% and a 27.5% Ball%. That’s the lowest Ball% in the league for pitchers with at least ten starts. The problem is that a very low Ball% isn’t all that great if you’re not getting whiffs in the strike zone, which he is not.
He is a bit of an outlier on the Ball%/Strike%/BIP% plot:
Huge gap there between him and the field in Ball%, but also a pretty big difference between him and guys like Skubal, Schwellenbach, Sale, and Crochet in BIP%. When those studs are throwing pitches in the zone, they are getting strikes at a high rate. When Woo is throwing strikes in the zone, he’s allowing a bunch of balls in play. His BIP% is one of the highest in the league. A ball in play is better than a walk, but a strike is better than a ball in play. Woo is playing with fire a little bit, but it’s worked out so far with a .244 BABIP turning into just a .531 OPS allowed. If you’re looking for a comp, he’s most like Zach Eflin this year, and that’s not really a compliment.
Hunter Greene finally gave up some runs:
6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 10.2% SwStr%, 50% Strike%
And that was against the Marlins!
Still banged the qual, but it was one of his worst whiff outings of the year.
You would have thought the Marlins would be an easy bottom-two offense after the trade deadline, but they haven’t been all that terrible:
.245/.310/.378, .688 OPS, 28% K%
I mean that’s not good, but it’s only the ninth-worst OPS in the league since July 30th.
Note that the Athletics have sucked again lately!
I have recently recommended both Luis L. Ortiz and DJ Herz as good names to add in fantasy leagues if you need an SP. And they both pitched yesterday and they both sucked!
Ortiz: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 7.6% SwStr%, 43.5% Strike%
Herz: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 4 BB, 6.8% SwStr%, 41.9% Strike%
I believe the Herz outing was shortened by the rain, so it’s not fair to say he sucked, but he was not throwing the ball well in the 74 pitches he did throw. Firstly, it took him 74 pitches to get eight outs, and the Ball% was through the roof at 47.3%. Bad sign there.
Sorry about Ortiz. He stinks. The ERA is still pretty good since June, but the under-the-hood stuff stinks:
7 GS, 59.2 IP, 47% Strike%, 33.1% Ball%, 18.6% K%, 5.1% BB%, 13.5% K-BB%
That’s more league average rather than stinky, but we don’t want league average for fantasy.
I was probably slightly blinded by the Pirates hype. But now that I’ve sworn them off again, I can see clearly now.
Shane Baz:
4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 8.8% SwStr%
That was excellent because I’m in a dog fight against Stupid Ass Clint in the home league (the loyal readers know a lot about Stupid Ass Clint), and he ran Baz out there. His season marks now:
6 GS, 29 IP, 11.8% SwStr%, 44.8% Strike%, 36.7% Ball%, 20.0% K%, 9.2% BB%
Bad!
The Stuff+ is 115 (good!), but the locations have been bad with a 98 Location+.
The fastball needs to be a bit better, and the slider needs to be a ton better. His 11.4% SwStr% on that pitch is unacceptable. Absolutely unacceptable. If it doesn’t improve soon he should be banished from baseball.
And then how about Charlie Morton holy hell:
2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
That’s the second time he’s given up an eight-burger in the earnies column, and he’s given up 5+ on five different occasions.
It’s probably more randomness than anything, but I do wonder if being this dependent on the curveball makes you more susceptible to the blow-up outings. The curveball is a pitch that does not work very well in the strike zone.
xwOBA on Contact In The Zone by Pitch Type
Four-Seamer: .412
Cutter: .390
Curveball: .387
Sinker: .386
Slider: .380
Changeup: .373
Splitter: .171
Sweeper: .371
The fastballs are the easiest ones to do damage on, but the curveball is way worse than the rest of the secondary/breaking/offspeed pitches.
This isn’t scientific, don’t quote me on any of this. It’s just a quick theory.
I will always love Charlie Morton. Had some good memories of him with the Pirates, although I guess that’s a sad story as well since he went away from the Pirates and very quickly turned into an ace while the Pirates could never get much good out of him.
Hitter Review
I’ve banged the Zach Neto drum several times this year. We liked his speed, his barrel ability, and his age. And he does seem to be developing nicely.
He’s now up to a .793 OPS on the year with 16 homers and 20 steals. He could very well get to a 20-25 season.
There are only a dozen hitters in the league this year with 15+ homers and 15+ steals, and of those, Neto’s .266 batting average is fifth-best. So this has been a nice fantasy season for the kid, and remember he’s still just 23 years old. He will be a target of mine next year for sure (he was a target of mine this year in fact!).
And I suppose I will throw you San Diegans a bone here. I am going to capitulate on Jurickson Profar. He’s on the super ultra mega hot hitters list right now, and he just has not stopped the barrage of hits even though I was expecting him to all season long.
469 PA, .298/.388/.486, 19 HR, 8.6 Brl%, 14.7% K%, 83% Cont%,
He’s top-25 in the league in fantasy point scoring. So fine, Profar is good and I was wrong.
And with that I’m out of here. Goodbye.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Bryan Woo
2. Frankie Montas
3. David Peterson
4. Tyler Anderson
5. Kyle Tyler
6. Dean Kremer
7. Hunter Greene
8. Jordan Montgomery
9. Kyle Gibson
10. Kolby Allard
11. Shane Baz
12. Kyle Harrison
13. Kevin Gausman
14. Nestor Cortes
15. Randy Vasquez
16. Luis L. Ortiz
17. Austin Gomber
18. DJ Herz
19. Charlie Morton
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tyler Anderson (vs. NYY): 27.1 Points
2. Bryan Woo (vs. DET): 19.41 Points
3. David Peterson (vs. COL): 19.05 Points
4. Kevin Gausman (vs. BAL): 18.4 Points
5. Kyle Gibson (vs. TB): 16.1 Points
6. Kolby Allard (vs. ARI): 15.65 Points
7. Bryan Sammons (vs. SEA): 13.94 Points
8. Frankie Montas (vs. ATL): 13.4 Points
9. Hunter Greene (vs. MIA): 12.7 Points
10. J.T. Chargois (vs. DET): 10.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. David Peterson (NYM): 16 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
2. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Kyle Tyler (MIA): 14 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
4. Frankie Montas (MIL): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
5. Jordan Montgomery (ARI): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Dean Kremer (BAL): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Kyle Gibson (STL): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Hunter Greene (CIN): 11 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
9. Bryan Sammons (DET): 10 Whiffs (64 Pitches)
10. Derek Law (WSH): 9 Whiffs (32 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Frankie Montas (MIL): 51.6 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
2. Bryan Woo (SEA): 51.1 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
3. Dean Kremer (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
4. Hunter Greene (CIN): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 49.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
6. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 47.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
7. Charlie Morton (ATL): 47.0 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
8. Bryan Sammons (DET): 46.9 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
9. Austin Gomber (COL): 45.6 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
10. Slade Cecconi (ARI): 44.2 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
11. Kolby Allard (PHI): 44.1 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
12. Kyle Gibson (STL): 44.0 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
13. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 44.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
14. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 43.5 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
15. Shane Baz (TB): 42.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kolby Allard: 59 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.93 POUT
2. Kevin Gausman: 100 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.17 POUT
3. Kyle Harrison: 61 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.36 POUT
4. Bryan Woo: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
5. Bryan Sammons: 64 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.92 POUT
6. Kyle Gibson: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
7. Luis L. Ortiz: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
8. Tyler Anderson: 95 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.28 POUT
9. Randy Vasquez: 85 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.31 POUT
10. Jordan Montgomery: 92 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.75 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.7
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 79.0
Charlie Morton's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.8
Kyle Harrison's FF velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 90.7
Kyle Harrison's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 82.4
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (20 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 78.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's FF usage (52.9%) up 10.2 points
Charlie Morton's SI usage (19.3%) up 10.8 points
David Peterson's FF usage (44.3%) up 17.1 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (16.7%) up 10.5 points
Frankie Montas's FF usage (53.8%) up 19.1 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (39.1%) up 16.7 points
Kolby Allard's CH usage (28.8%) up 11.1 points
Kyle Harrison's SV usage (32.8%) up 10.6 points
Kyle Harrison's CH usage (27.9%) up 10.1 points
Slade Cecconi's SL usage (46.2%) up 15.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.4%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +21.3%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -20.0%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -19.8%
Brady Singer Sinker: +18.1%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.2%
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: +16.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -16.8%
Hayden Birdsong 4-Seam Fastball: -15.9%
Marco Gonzales 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Jose Quintana Curveball: +14.4%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +14.3%
Roddery Munoz Sinker: +14.2%
James Paxton Sinker: +13.9%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -13.7%
David Peterson Sinker: -13.4%
Marco Gonzales Sinker: -13.3%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
Tanner Houck Slider: -12.8%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.7%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -12.7%
Ryan Feltner Curveball: +12.7%
Ben Lively Sinker: -12.6%
Ross Stripling Curveball: +12.5%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.5%
Luis Gil Changeup: -12.5%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.4%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.3%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.2%
JP Sears Sweeper: -12.1%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +12.0%
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