MLB Daily Notes - Friday, April 15
Happy Good Friday to all my fellow Christians out there! As a special promotion, I’m going to offer one FREE daily notes premium subscription for anybody who takes and tweets me a sick selfie of themselves in church this weekend - bonus points if you get a crucifix in the pic somehow.
Yes, things are getting strange in the Daily Notes.
We have a new top dog in the JA hitter ranks, and it’s Jonah Heim - who really pissed me off last night. Ohtani threw the worst splitter I’ve ever seen to this dude, who looked completely disinterested prior to the pitch, and he crushed it for a grand slam, adding further pain to my home league pitching staff’s performance this week. It’s been bad. I’m currently getting walloped my college roommate, and let me tell you a little bit about this guy - he believes in stuff like “intangibles” and “bunting” and “big game players” and loony-tunes shit like that! It’s madness!
I’ve added an “SP Roundup” report to the premium files that you’ll get if you become a paid subscriber. Each day it shows the pitch breakdown report for every pitcher that threw at least 50 pitches yesterday. Here’s a sneak peak.
I’ve also added freaking weekly projections! Weekly! So there’s a file here with the full week’s worth of projections for next week’s fantasy scoring period (so Monday through Sunday). Every single player with full box score projections, you simply aren’t getting that anywhere else! Give me your money, I need it (I don’t)!
JA Model Ranks Explanation
I recently added these daily and season-long hitter and pitcher rankings that I’m calling the “JA Ranks”, or something like that - you’ll see it below - and paid subscribers have access to the full lists updated daily.
Someone asked me yesterday for an explanation on what that is in more details, so here it is.
I’m not going to give away the formula or anything like that, but these models are just scoring systems that give each event that happens a positive or negative score. If you’re a hitter and you barrel up a home run, you’re given X points - if you strike out swinging, you lose Y points. Same idea for pitchers. You add up all those points and get a raw score for the day, and you see that below. And then for the season-long leaders I take a ratio rather than just summing them all up so it doesn’t over-favor players with the most PA’s.
I backtested it on last year, checking to see who the model would have called the best and worst hitters, and it looked really sharp. Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes were the top dogs, and the rest of the top 20 and bottom 20 made perfect sense to me, so I feel like it’s pretty useful.
One thing to consider, box score stats like R, RBI, SB, and ER aren’t considered. I’m not giving extra credit for a double just because three other guys happened to be on base when you hit it. These scores are only about things the player themselves are controlling (or at least, mostly controlling).
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 25.3 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
2. Luis Severino (NYY): 18.1 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%
3. Kyle Gibson (PHI): 18.7 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
4. Adam Wainwright (STL): 5.8 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
5. Joe Musgrove (SD): 12.4 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Dane Dunning (TEX): 10.5 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
7. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 12.9 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
8. Josh Fleming (TB): 17.9 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
9. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 20.0 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 13.5 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kevin Gausman - 5.67 IP - 72.25 JA Points
2. Luis Severino - 5.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
3. Joe Musgrove - 6.67 IP - 62.0 JA Points
4. Sandy Alcantara - 6.33 IP - 54.75 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff - 4.67 IP - 50.5 JA Points
6. Kyle Gibson - 4.67 IP - 48.25 JA Points
7. Roansy Contreras - 3.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
8. Josh Fleming - 3.33 IP - 39.25 JA Points
9. Walker Buehler - 5.33 IP - 38.5 JA Points
10. Drew VerHagen - 2.67 IP - 38.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 1.0 GS - 100.0 JA Points
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 1.0 GS - 89.5 JA Points
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 1.0 GS - 78.21 JA Points
4. Alex Cobb (SF) - 1.0 GS - 72.0 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 2.0 GS - 67.22 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 1.0 GS - 63.75 JA Points
7. Pablo Lopez (MIA) - 1.0 GS - 63.5 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 1.0 GS - 63.44 JA Points
9. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) - 1.0 GS - 61.88 JA Points
10. Josh Fleming (TB) - 1.0 GS - 61.5 JA Points
Velo Changes
Shohei Ohtani's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 85.2
Brandon Woodruff's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 88.9
Kevin Gausman's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.0
Shohei Ohtani's FS velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 90.1
Logan Gilbert's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.2
Shohei Ohtani's FF velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.4
Jaime Barria's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.3
Joe Musgrove's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.5
Joe Musgrove's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 80.5
Joe Musgrove's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.5
Casey Mize's FS velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 84.0
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 83.9
Walker Buehler's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.4
Pitch Mix Changes
Casey Mize's FF usage (42.0%) up 12.2 points
JT Brubaker's CH usage (19.5%) up 13.2 points
Jaime Barria's CH usage (21.8%) up 13.3 points
Josh Fleming's SI usage (59.7%) up 13.3 points
Justin Steele's SL usage (32.5%) up 10.2 points
Kevin Gausman's SL usage (16.9%) up 10.8 points
Kyle Freeland's CH usage (31.5%) up 14.5 points
Luis Severino's FC usage (22.9%) up 14.9 points
Zack Greinke's CU usage (29.4%) up 12.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 45 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Logan Webb - 52 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 45 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 46 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 39 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.5% K%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 37.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 35.9% K%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 34.2% K%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 31.4% K%
Kevin Gausman - 45 TBF, 31.1% K%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 30.2% K%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 45 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 40 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Adam Wainwright - 44 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 39 TBF, 73.9% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 46 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 52 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Dane Dunning - 41 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 52.9% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Justin Steele - 38 TBF, 50.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 59.1% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 18 TBF, 27.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 22 TBF, 36.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 0.0 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Josh Fleming - 30 TBF, 36.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 72.2% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 37.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.7 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Matt Brash - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 35.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 69.2% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 36.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Taylor Hearn - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Victor Arano - 17 TBF, 41.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Sean Murphy (OAK) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Manny Machado - 6.0 PA - 37.25 JA Points
2. Bryan Reynolds - 5.0 PA - 31.5 JA Points
3. Daniel Vogelbach - 6.0 PA - 31.25 JA Points
4. Eric Hosmer - 5.0 PA - 30.75 JA Points
5. Sean Murphy - 4.0 PA - 29.0 JA Points
6. Cal Raleigh - 4.0 PA - 25.75 JA Points
7. Mitch Haniger - 5.0 PA - 23.25 JA Points
8. Jonah Heim - 4.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points
9. Ryan McMahon - 4.0 PA - 22.25 JA Points
10. Jace Peterson - 4.0 PA - 22.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jonah Heim (TEX) - 13.0 PA - 240.0 JA Points
2. Albert Pujols (STL) - 13.0 PA - 165.38 JA Points
3. Owen Miller (CLE) - 22.0 PA - 138.18 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 16.0 PA - 128.75 JA Points
5. Anthony Santander (BAL) - 23.0 PA - 125.65 JA Points
6. Steven Kwan (CLE) - 29.0 PA - 122.41 JA Points
7. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 21.0 PA - 121.9 JA Points
8. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 28.0 PA - 118.93 JA Points
9. Willie Calhoun (TEX) - 15.0 PA - 106.67 JA Points
10. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 19.0 PA - 103.68 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.6mph - single
Brandon Drury (CIN) - 114.8mph - foul
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 114.0mph - double
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 114.0mph - home_run
Mike Trout (LAA) - 112.9mph - home_run
Joey Votto (CIN) - 111.9mph - double
Jonathan Villar (CHC) - 111.7mph - foul
Mitch Haniger (SEA) - 111.0mph - home_run
Victor Reyes (DET) - 111.0mph - foul
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) - 110.9mph - single
That Brandon Drury one… Statcast must have been drunk. That guy can’t do that.
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Byron Buxton - 25 PA, 13 BIP, 5 Brls, 38.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 24 PA, 11 BIP, 4 Brls, 36.4 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 26 PA, 18 BIP, 6 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 31 PA, 21 BIP, 6 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 25 PA, 14 BIP, 4 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 32 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 28 PA, 19 BIP, 5 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 29 PA, 17 BIP, 4 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 25 PA, 13 BIP, 3 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Mitch Haniger - 30 PA, 22 BIP, 5 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 29 PA, 49 Swings, 95.9 Cont%
Austin Nola - 28 PA, 42 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Carlos Santana - 23 PA, 43 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 28 PA, 51 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 34 PA, 50 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 25 PA, 46 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Starling Marte - 28 PA, 44 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Amed Rosario - 28 PA, 47 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 24 PA, 39 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Seiya Suzuki - 25 PA, 31 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Bregman - 24 PA, 8.3 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 30 PA, 16.7 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Austin Riley - 35 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Enrique Hernandez - 30 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 25 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 28 PA, 7.1 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Jurickson Profar - 26 PA, 11.5 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Luis Robert - 25 PA, 8.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 35 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 24 PA, 12.5 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 26 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 25 PA, 20.0 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Tyler Stephenson - 25 PA, 12.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
I really think Jesus Sanchez is taking a step forward here, all that guy needed to do was get the K% below 28% or so and he’d be a smash. Keep a close eye on him!
Luis Robert with an 8% K%, that’s just not fair.