MLB Daily Notes: Friday, April 22
Kyle Tucker this year:
12.5% Brl%
21.3% K%
81.4% Contact%
11.6% Swing Success% (4th best in MLB)
.191 batting average
.238 slugging percentage
As someone who does not roster Kyle Tucker, that is hilarious.
Let’s take a gander at the worst hitters this year by JA score, which is a much better measure than average and slugging percentage. The algorithm ranked 252 hitters this morning after getting the updated 2022 data. Here are some notable players in the bottom 50.
#206 Mookie Betts
#207 Bo Bichette
#215 Josh Donaldson
#221 Dylan Carlson
#231 Jarred Kelenic
#236 Brendan Rodgers
#238 Franmil Reyes (up significantly from yesterday tho!)
#240 Trevor Story
#246 Bobby Witt Jr.
#248 Dansby Swanson
#249 Julio Rodriguez
On my MLB Tableau dashboard, I added a scatter plot that shows each hitter’s contact rate and barrel rate together. Here’s where Trevor Story lines up:
I added some boxes to help you interpret a scatter plot. It’s not good for Trevor Story.
Not a lot of action yesterday, but tonight the juice is flowing, first HUGE Friday night slate of the year, can’t wait! Here are the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14.1 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
2. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 21.6 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
3. Pablo Lopez (MIA): 15.0 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
4. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 3.2 SwStr%, 33.9 CSW%
5. Zach Davies (ARI): 12.8 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
6. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 11.0 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
7. Tyler Wells (BAL): 13.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
8. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 16.3 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
9. Marco Gonzales (SEA): 17.0 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
10. Taylor Hearn (TEX): 9.0 SwStr%, 28.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez - 7.0 IP - 88.0 JA Points
2. Kevin Gausman - 7.67 IP - 75.25 JA Points
3. Carlos Carrasco - 7.67 IP - 65.25 JA Points
4. Marco Gonzales - 4.67 IP - 47.5 JA Points
5. Zach Davies - 5.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
6. Jordan Montgomery - 6.0 IP - 43.0 JA Points
7. Joe Ryan - 5.67 IP - 41.75 JA Points
8. Wil Crowe - 2.33 IP - 37.75 JA Points
9. Dylan Cease - 5.33 IP - 34.25 JA Points
10. Paul Blackburn - 4.67 IP - 26.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Nestor Cortes (NYY) - 2.0 GS - 68.04 JA Points
2. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 3.0 GS - 63.31 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 3.0 GS - 60.66 JA Points
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 2.0 GS - 59.79 JA Points
5. Alex Cobb (SF) - 2.0 GS - 57.99 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 3.0 GS - 57.44 JA Points
7. Kyle Wright (ATL) - 2.0 GS - 55.8 JA Points
8. Andrew Heaney (LAD) - 2.0 GS - 53.83 JA Points
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 3.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
10. Chris Paddack (MIN) - 2.0 GS - 50.28 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Mark Leiter Jr.'s FC velo (10 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.8
Mark Leiter Jr.'s CU velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 73.2
Joe Ryan's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.6
Tyler Wells's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.9
Paul Blackburn's FC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.4
Jordan Montgomery's CH velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 80.8
Josh Rogers's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 80.3
Zach Plesac's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.9
Zach Plesac's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.3
Taylor Hearn's FF velo (42 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.2
Anthony DeSclafani's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.9
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.9
Anthony DeSclafani's KC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 80.3
Zach Plesac's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 90.2
Zach Plesac's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Anthony DeSclafani's CH usage (24.1%) up 13.8 points
Anthony DeSclafani's KC usage (19.3%) up 11.1 points
Kevin Gausman's SL usage (18.2%) up 11.8 points
Marco Gonzales's CH usage (44.7%) up 22.7 points
Mark Leiter Jr.'s CU usage (22.2%) up 18.1 points
Tanner Houck's FF usage (52.1%) up 13.5 points
Tyler Wells's CU usage (16.7%) up 12.4 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 59 TBF, 39.8% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 64 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Paul Blackburn - 55 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 60 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 44.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 59 TBF, 44.1% K%
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 40.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Josiah Gray - 58 TBF, 31.0% K%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 30.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 65 TBF, 29.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 59 TBF, 37.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 65 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 58 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Paul Blackburn - 55 TBF, 23.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 62 TBF, 71.8% GB%
Aaron Nola - 62 TBF, 64.1% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 71 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Mitch Keller - 61 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Luis Severino - 56 TBF, 54.1% GB%
German Marquez - 75 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 55 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Dylan Cease - 68 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 40 TBF, 35.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 70.8% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 40 TBF, 40.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Clay Holmes - 28 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 83.3% GB%
Jhoan Duran - 29 TBF, 44.8 K%, 6.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Josh Fleming - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Keegan Thompson - 34 TBF, 29.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 61.9% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 42 TBF, 35.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Phillips Valdez - 28 TBF, 35.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Victor Arano - 27 TBF, 44.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Multiple Barrels - Yesterday
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Sean Murphy (OAK) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Sean Murphy - 4.0 PA - 38.25 JA Points
2. Ty France - 5.0 PA - 36.5 JA Points
3. J.P. Crawford - 5.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 4.0 PA - 23.75 JA Points
6. Francisco Lindor - 5.0 PA - 22.75 JA Points
7. Jesus Sanchez - 4.0 PA - 21.5 JA Points
8. Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
9. Mike Yastrzemski - 4.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
10. Jazz Chisholm - 4.0 PA - 20.75 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 53.0 PA - 112.45 JA Points
2. Owen Miller (CLE) - 33.0 PA - 100.61 JA Points
3. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 47.0 PA - 94.68 JA Points
4. Matt Olson (ATL) - 62.0 PA - 83.87 JA Points
5. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 32.0 PA - 80.0 JA Points
6. Steven Kwan (CLE) - 47.0 PA - 78.72 JA Points
7. Wander Franco (TB) - 53.0 PA - 77.92 JA Points
8. Jurickson Profar (SD) - 49.0 PA - 76.53 JA Points
9. Gavin Lux (LAD) - 37.0 PA - 71.35 JA Points
10. Juan Soto (WSH) - 66.0 PA - 67.73 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls - Yesterday
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 114.8mph - double
Jake Burger (CWS) - 114.4mph - field_out
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.0mph - home_run
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 112.5mph - home_run
Luis Robert (CWS) - 112.0mph - double
Nick Solak (TEX) - 111.1mph - home_run
Christian Walker (ARI) - 110.9mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.8mph - field_out
Josh Naylor (CLE) - 110.1mph - double
Jason Heyward (CHC) - 109.1mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Seiya Suzuki - 48 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 53 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 43 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jo Adell - 44 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 42 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 50 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 54 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 45 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 45 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 47 PA, 73 Swings, 94.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 55 PA, 81 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 53 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 43 PA, 70 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 43 PA, 64 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 50 PA, 84 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 52 PA, 96 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 58 PA, 78 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
Amed Rosario - 52 PA, 92 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
Austin Nola - 45 PA, 68 Swings, 85.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 13.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 53 PA, 5.7 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Luis Robert - 45 PA, 13.3 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 58 PA, 13.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Mike Yastrzemski - 44 PA, 15.9 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Nick Castellanos - 55 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 47 PA, 14.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Okay now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
More stuff added every week
As a bonus, TODAY ONLY, I’m offering new subscribers the never-ending feeling of purpose and fulfillment knowing that gave me a little bit of money to buy food for my third kid that is coming in December. Just think about that, by subscribing today, you are putting food in a hungry child’s mouth (albeit very, very indirectly and the kid would eat just fine anyway, but emotional appeals work!)