MLB Daily Notes: Friday, August 12
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Remember back in April when we were all in love with Steven Kwan? Well, he was the JA model’s top hitter yesterday, so it’s high time we re-visit. It took him an eight-game slate to be the top man, but he did hit a homer so hey congrats.
Kwan is hitting .300/.375/.397 with 3 homers, 3 steals, 55 runs, and 29 RBI through 409 PA. To expand those numbers out to 600 PA’s: 5 HR, 5 SB, 94 R, 46 RBI
There are no redeeming qualities to his power production with a 1.2% barrel rate and a .300 xwOBA. That makes him a fantasy team killer in homers and RBI, but makes him pretty useful in R, AVG, and OBP. The five steals aren’t exactly a “killer”, but I mean it’s not making a difference most of the time either. The .300 batting average is a pretty huge number while the league average is more than 50 points below it, and the BABIP is pretty believable at .324 - so I think Kwan can and should continue to be a .300-ish hitter (8.8% K%), but overall he’s not someone we should really be drafting in shallow leagues next year in my opinion.
Framber Valdez had another strikeout game, racking up eight punchies over seven innings against the Rangers.
22% K% for the year but a 24.6% K% mark over his last seven starts. He has a little bit more strikeout ability than we may have thought. His strikeout games seem to come when he uses the curveball a bit more, which he did yesterday throwing the pitch 30% of the time (still lead the arsenal with the sinker at 46% usage). His curveball has a sick 21% SwStr% this year, but the 28% usage keeps the strikeouts down. A low K% is working just fine for him, as he’s made himself a successful Major League career - so I wouldn’t expect him to be re-tooling any time soon, but it is nice to see that he has a big-time whiff pitch available to him.
Drew Smyly had a really nice start in Iowa against the Reds. I’d tell you more about it, but we have no data because the world was really stupid in 1989.
Everybody loves the throw-back feel of the Field of Dreams game, but throw-backs are only cool if you’re throwing back to a time when things were good, and I’m sorry but baseball without insanely granular data describing every event that happens just isn’t good.
I’m not even some egg-head dude who wants a number to describe everything, I’m a firm believer that we can’t explain everything in life with statistics and numbers - but we can pretty much do that in baseball so we should do it. Information is power, the Field of Dreams game weakens my dashboards and therefore it is dumb. I will take no questions.
I’m out of time - going to the chiropractor. Join the DK contest for tonight, please!
We’ll have a slate breakdown coming this afternoon - it’s a great slate and it makes me happy when we get like 15 people in these Friday contests.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 20.4 SwStr%, 38.8 CSW%
2. Drew Smyly (CHC): 19.8 SwStr%, 36.3 CSW%
3. JT Brubaker (PIT): 14.1 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
4. Dean Kremer (BAL): 12.6 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
5. Dylan Cease (CWS): 20.2 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
6. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 12.1 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
7. Dakota Hudson (STL): 9.3 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
8. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 10.1 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
9. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 9.2 SwStr%, 28.6 CSW%
10. Josh Winckowski (BOS): 7.5 SwStr%, 26.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez - 7.0 IP - 80.5 JA Points
2. Drew Smyly - 5.0 IP - 63.25 JA Points
3. Edward Cabrera - 5.67 IP - 58.0 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease - 6.0 IP - 51.0 JA Points
5. JT Brubaker - 5.0 IP - 50.75 JA Points
6. Zach Plesac - 6.33 IP - 48.5 JA Points
7. Merrill Kelly - 4.67 IP - 43.0 JA Points
8. German Marquez - 6.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
9. Dean Kremer - 5.67 IP - 35.5 JA Points
10. Zack Greinke - 6.33 IP - 33.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 22 GS - 54.39 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 19 GS - 52.76 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 21 GS - 52.71 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 23 GS - 51.69 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 23 GS - 49.02 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 15 GS - 48.45 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 22 GS - 47.72 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 17 GS - 44.97 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 17 GS - 44.41 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
German Marquez's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 90.3
German Marquez's FF velo (33 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 97.3
German Marquez's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.3
Edward Cabrera's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.6
Dakota Hudson's SI velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.5
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 85.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Garrett Hill's FF usage (52.8%) up 24.5 points
JT Brubaker's CU usage (31.5%) up 15.7 points
Kyle Gibson's FF usage (30.0%) up 17.4 points
Zach Plesac's CU usage (20.0%) up 10.4 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 90 TBF, 39.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 31.0% K%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 30.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 101 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Dane Dunning - 69 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Kyle Wright - 103 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Max Fried - 79 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 100 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
George Kirby - 60 TBF, 31.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 31.0 K%, 6.9 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2 K%, 3.9 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Framber Valdez - +2.1% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +2.6% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +3.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.8% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Adam Wainwright - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.5% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +3.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Steven Kwan - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
2. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
3. Emmanuel Rivera - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Sam Hilliard - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
5. Yasmani Grandal - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
6. Andrew Vaughn - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Santander - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
8. Yuli Gurriel - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
9. Nolan Gorman - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
10. Vinnie Pasquantino - 3.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 390.0 PA - 151.28 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 471.0 PA - 145.48 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 467.0 PA - 132.16 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 368.0 PA - 115.54 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 486.0 PA - 114.07 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 456.0 PA - 109.56 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 447.0 PA - 103.53 JA Points
9. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 261.0 PA - 98.24 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 409.0 PA - 97.51 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Randal Grichuk (COL) - 111.6mph - single
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 109.0mph - field_out
Jose Altuve (HOU) - 108.0mph - field_out
Willi Castro (DET) - 107.9mph - foul
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 107.8mph - double_play
Christian Walker (ARI) - 107.2mph - field_out
Nolan Arenado (STL) - 107.2mph - foul
Corey Dickerson (STL) - 106.7mph - single
Jose Altuve (HOU) - 106.4mph - foul
Bligh Madris (PIT) - 106.4mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 47 BIP, 16 Brls, 34.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 70 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 55 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 80 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 72 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 74 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.597 xwOBA
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Eric Hosmer - 51 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 63 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Anthony Rizzo - 53 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 66 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 74 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 69 PA, 127 Swings, 94.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 92 PA, 148 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 63 PA, 124 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 143 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 121 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 75 PA, 111 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 56 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 91 PA, 159 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 106 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 58 PA, 103 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 53 PA, 15.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Daulton Varsho - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 19.3 Brl%
Eric Hosmer - 51 PA, 7.8 K%, 15.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 61 PA, 18.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 63 PA, 11.1 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 65 PA, 13.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 16.7 K%, 21.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
MJ Melendez - +7.4% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -8.9 Chase%
Nolan Arenado - +6.3% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Anthony Santander - +9.6% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - +17.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Jo Adell - +3.8% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +8.2% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Mitch Haniger - +7.3% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -13.8 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.48 xwOBA, 12.1% Brl%, 85.5% Contact%, 13.1% Chase%, 7.8% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.412 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 75.7% Contact%, 19.3% Chase%, 12.2% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Mark Canha - 34.7% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 36.7% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 34.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Jarren Duran - 32.5% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 30.6% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Ramon Urias - 34.1% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Victor Reyes - 34.4% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Jake McCarthy - 28.6% Whiff%, 79.4% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Jonah Heim - 28.6% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Cal Raleigh - 29.1% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.836 Cold Rating
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