MLB Daily Notes: Friday, August 19
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
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The legend of Jose Berrios continues. After going for negative fantasy points in back-to-back starts against the Twins and Guardians, he shoves for a 30.8 against the Yankees in Yankees Stadium.
The easiest statistical way to find which lists of numbers are the most inconsistent is using standard deviation. Standard deviation is, simply put, a measure of the spread of a data set (a list of numbers in this case).
What you see above is a plot of the league’s highest standard deviation in terms of pitcher DraftKings points scored.
Highest Standard Deviations, SPs 2022
Jose Berrios 15.8
Nathan Eovaldi 13.1
Clayton Kershaw 12.6
Carlos Rodon 12.3
Jake Odorizzi 12.2
Lowest Standard Deviations, SPs 2022
Max Fried 6.7
Chris Archer 6.9
Alek Manoah 7.0
Max Scherzer 7.0
Luis Garcia 7.5
The lowest guy, Fried, also pitched yesterday, so here’s a plot of his points for comparison’s sake.
So Berrios was the pitcher of the day by the CSW%, but Zac Gallen was right behind him. Over his last three starts, Gallen has thrown 21.1 innings without allowing a single earned run. He has struck out 26 and walked just three over that time. Those matchups:
vs. PIT
vs. COL (in Coors)
vs. SF
For the year now Gallen has a 25.1% K%, a 6.7% BB%, a .281 xwOBA, and a 47.7 PA/HR. Those are quite good numbers, but we should know better than to assume that Gallen will be a fantasy ace down the stretch because he’s just been up and down so often in his young career, and his 27.8% CSW% and 10.4% SwStr% on the year are really not very strong marks.
Andrew Heaney pushed up to 89 pitches and just continued to dominate. He has looked incredibly in nearly every single outing this year
Any time you’re above a 15% SwStr%, that’s really impressive stuff - and Heaney has done that in all but one start.
Here is some data on where Heaney ranks in the league among pitchers with at least 8 starts this year:
SwStr%: 6th (16.6%)
K%: 3rd (34.2%)
CSW%: 7th (32.7%)
So he’s had no trouble getting strikes, and the 7.2% BB% is really nice to see behind that. The 38 PA/HR is better than league average as well although it’s not one of the top marks in the league. Heaney seems like an ace, and the only question appears to be the pitch count - so it was really good to see him get up to a fuller pitch count yesterday.
Speaking of pitch counts, the reins were taken off of Jacob deGrom last night, as he threw 95 pitches against the Braves in a competitive game. He put up a 30.5% CSW%, a 21.1% SwStr%, got 20 whiffs, BUT LOST TO MAX FRIED.
I wonder where deGrom would/should be drafted next year if it was guaranteed that he would make 30 starts. I think he should probably be the first overall pick if you somehow had that guarantee, just cause he is so, so much better than every other pitcher.
Gotta give JT Brubaker a shout for his seven shutout innings. HE went for a great 38.1% CSW% and a 15.5% SwStr%. He did that with 48% sinker usage, which is pretty surprising - I was expecting to see higher slider usage, but we didn’t get that. He’s a talented pitcher but is just missing a couple of the pillars of pitching, and for now he’s really not worth rostering in leagues that aren’t pretty deep.
Alex Bregman scored the third-most fantasy points in a single game of the season yesterday, hitting two homers and adding a steal. Here are those top five single-game performances of the season:
Speaking of Joc Pederson, man, we need to stop falling for this dude’s tricks. He’s been straight awful since late June.
Here’s what he’s done by month:
April……. .353/.382/.745, 6 HR, 20% K%, 22% Brl%
May……… .221/.333/.515, 6 HR, 17% K%, 20% Brl%
June……… .274/.338/.534, 5 HR, 29% K%, 14% Brl%
July-Aug .193/.258/.284, 0 HR, 18% K%, 8% Brl%
It’s just the same old story, Joc clumps together a bunch of products in short time frames but then goes weeks and weeks without doing anything. Maybe it’s a consequence of the sparse playing time, maybe he’s a head-case, or maybe hot and cold truly do exist for this guy and he’s always either one or the other. Who knows, but in any case - don’t roster Pederson next year, just don’t do it to yourself.
Top OPS hitters of August
Paul Goldschmidt 1.276
Alex Bregman 1.246
Max Muncy 1.184
Christian Walker 1.123
Jeff McNeil 1.109
Vinnie Pasquantino 1.105
Bryan Reynolds 1.087
Manny Machado 1.072
Nolan Arenado 1.062
Andres Gimenez 1.040
Top K-BB% pitchers of August
Jacob deGrom 44.4%
Blake Snell 36.8%
Aaron Civale 34.2%
Charlie Morton 32.9%
Justin Steele 30.9%
Spencer Strider 30.5%
Andrew Heaney 28.4%
Shane Bieber 27.3%
Carlos Rodon 27.1%
Lance Lynn 26.8%
We’re like somewhat close to cutting Lucas Giolito I think, but probably not there yet. He has some really good matchups upcoming, which is probably enough to keep him on rosters - but there have not been a lot of good signs for him.
He just got worked against the Astros yesterday giving up seven earned runs, but he did strike out five in three innings. He had put together three decent starts in a row by the box score results prior to that, but he has been so far from dominant.
We're looking for CSW% rates above 30% from good pitchers, and he has done that just once since July 8th. For the year, his mark is 30.2%, but if we take out April it’s 29.5%, if we take out April and May it’s 28.1%, and since July it’s 28.5%.
I suppose that most leagues will not have anyone better available, but clearly Giolito is not in the top 25 SPs anymore, and he should probably be benched in bad matchups.
His schedule for the rest of the year looks like this, as currently planned:
@ BAL
vs. ARI
vs. KC
@ KC
vs. DET
vs. HOU
@ SEA
@ OAK
@ DET
vs. DET
So yeah it’s a great slate of starts ahead of him, but I still have trouble feeling any confidence with the guy.
Alright that’s a lot of writing, let’s get to the reports.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios (TOR): 14.7 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
2. Zac Gallen (ARI): 17.2 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
3. JT Brubaker (PIT): 15.5 SwStr%, 38.1 CSW%
4. Andrew Heaney (LAD): 21.3 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
5. Adam Wainwright (STL): 9.0 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
6. Yu Darvish (SD): 14.6 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
7. Max Fried (ATL): 15.1 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
8. Austin Davis (BOS): 12.7 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
9. Jacob deGrom (NYM): 21.1 SwStr%, 30.5 CSW%
10. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 13.6 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Zac Gallen - 7.33 IP - 99.75 JA Points
2. Jacob deGrom - 6.67 IP - 76.75 JA Points
3. JT Brubaker - 7.0 IP - 69.5 JA Points
4. Yu Darvish - 8.33 IP - 67.0 JA Points
5. Jose Berrios - 6.67 IP - 65.0 JA Points
6. Andrew Heaney - 5.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points
7. Adam Wainwright - 7.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
8. Max Fried - 7.0 IP - 51.5 JA Points
9. Corbin Burnes - 5.67 IP - 46.5 JA Points
10. Luis Patino - 5.67 IP - 46.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 14 GS - 56.04 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 24 GS - 53.08 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 22 GS - 52.34 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 20 GS - 51.88 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 24 GS - 48.73 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 24 GS - 48.6 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 17 GS - 47.23 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 15 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 18 GS - 44.6 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Max Castillo's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.1
Yu Darvish's FC velo (43 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.1
Zach Logue's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.3
Zac Gallen's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.9
Luis Garcia's FC velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.8
Vince Velasquez's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.5
Luis Garcia's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 79.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Sampson's FF usage (48.8%) up 12.4 points
Anibal Sanchez's SI usage (35.4%) up 17.4 points
Austin Davis's FF usage (54.5%) up 10.2 points
Austin Gomber's SL usage (35.0%) up 11.4 points
Frankie Montas's SI usage (38.0%) up 15.8 points
Max Castillo's SL usage (30.4%) up 22.0 points
Vince Velasquez's SL usage (33.3%) up 12.0 points
Zach Logue's FF usage (58.2%) up 10.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 88 TBF, 38.6% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 97 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 103 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 105 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 45.7% K%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 29.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 44.4% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Corey Kluber - 103 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 76 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 74.3% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 88 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 107 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Dane Dunning - 94 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Max Fried - 77 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Archer - 52 TBF, 32.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 54.8% GB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Spencer Strider - 59 TBF, 37.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 66.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Corey Kluber - +4.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.3% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
JT Brubaker - +2.7% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Austin Voth - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Jose Urquidy - +2.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.5% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Blake Snell - +2.1% CSW%, -8.3 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +5.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alex Bregman (HOU) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Andrew McCutchen (MIL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Willson Contreras (CHC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Alex Bregman - 6.0 PA - 89.0 JA Points
2. Yoan Moncada - 5.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
3. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 62.0 JA Points
4. George Springer - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
5. Lars Nootbaar - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Andrew McCutchen - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
7. Daulton Varsho - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
8. Willson Contreras - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
9. Bryan Reynolds - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
10. Christian Vazquez - 6.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 419.0 PA - 144.82 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 501.0 PA - 137.25 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 501.0 PA - 134.77 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 517.0 PA - 114.04 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 480.0 PA - 113.25 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 391.0 PA - 112.74 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 418.0 PA - 100.38 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 436.0 PA - 99.63 JA Points
10. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 487.0 PA - 97.41 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 111.6mph - double
Manny Machado (SD) - 111.0mph - home_run
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 110.8mph - home_run
George Springer (TOR) - 110.7mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.1mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 109.8mph - field_out
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) - 109.8mph - single
Yoan Moncada (CWS) - 109.8mph - field_out
Leody Taveras (TEX) - 109.8mph - field_out
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 109.5mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Max Muncy - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 12 Brls, 29.3 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 65 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 60 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 49 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 50 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 81 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 53 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Michael Massey - 52 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 70 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 81 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Michael Massey - 52 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 70 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 49 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Jesse Winker - 60 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Nick Gordon - 55 PA, 0.409 xwOBA
Rhys Hoskins - 78 PA, 0.407 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
J.P. Crawford - 75 PA, 127 Swings, 94.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 73 PA, 125 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 61 PA, 98 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 129 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 74 PA, 125 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 47 PA, 69 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 75 PA, 139 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 66 PA, 111 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 76 PA, 127 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Walker - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Eric Hosmer - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 60 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.9 Brl%
Michael Massey - 52 PA, 15.4 K%, 19.5 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 55 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 74 PA, 16.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Seth Brown - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 12.7 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Will Smith - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Max Muncy - +4.6% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -5.7 Chase%
Corey Seager - +3.6% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - +3.6% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -14.1 Chase%
Daulton Varsho - +7.9% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -5.8 Chase%
Nico Hoerner - +8.1% Contact%, +8.1 mph exit velo, -16.2 Chase%
Alex Verdugo - +8.7% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -14.0 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +9.3% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +8.2% Contact%, +11.0 mph exit velo, -15.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
A.J. Pollock - 0.401 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 23.7% Chase%, 9.6% K%
Alex Bregman - 0.455 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 85.9% Contact%, 15.3% Chase%, 6.7% K%
Alex Verdugo - 0.397 xwOBA, 13.9% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 14.4% Chase%, 13.7% K%
Christian Walker - 0.422 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 24.4% Chase%, 13.8% K%
Juan Soto - 0.417 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 15.8% Chase%, 12.5% K%
MJ Melendez - 0.407 xwOBA, 18.9% Brl%, 76.1% Contact%, 15.9% Chase%, 22.0% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.454 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 21.5% Chase%, 11.9% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.41 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 79.4% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 19.7% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.44 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 87.2% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 7.5% K%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 0.397 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 86.5% Contact%, 24.3% Chase%, 11.9% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Brandon Lowe - 36.4% Whiff%, 84.0% Weak%, 0.966 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 48.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 33.7% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.918 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 34.0% Whiff%, 76.3% Weak%, 0.916 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 37.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 30.9% Whiff%, 85.2% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
J.D. Martinez - 38.5% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.88 Cold Rating
Jared Walsh - 35.7% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 33.8% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 34.6% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.851 Cold Rating
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