MLB Daily Notes: Friday, July 1
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
It’s the beginning of a long weekend, and my family is on the way out here to stay with us for the weekend. They still live in Pittsburgh so two or three times a year they all come out here for a long weekend. So it will be fun and wild weekend with five extra people hanging out, including another kiddo - my two-year-old niece!
The no-drinking thing is going great for me. I’ve successfully cruised through five days now and I feel great. I don’t have any crazy problems or major dependency on the stuff, but typically I’ll have 2-3 drinks several times a week and even though that’s not at all changing my behavior or demeanor, it still affects my sleep and digestion and obviously just isn’t great for me altogether.
There’s something to be said for just denying yourself of something you desire - no matter if the thing is inherently a bad thing or not. The stoics talked a ton about that, and there are plenty of allusions to it in the Bible as well, if that gets your motor going. Master yourself, don’t let your impulses and urges and vices have any control over you. That’s probably a place that is impossible to reach, especially in today’s culture, but just because you can’t get there doesn’t mean you shouldn’t walk in that direction. So I will push on through the weekend. I have been having the wildest dreams - which I understand to be because alcohol suppresses REM sleep, and then when you get all of it out of your system - your brain attempts to catch up on that missed deep sleep, sending you into some real wild places.
Matthew Walker wrote a book about it, one of the most interesting books I’ve ever read.
If that sounds interesting to you but you’re not the reading type, he was also on Joe Rogan several years ago and basically gives a summary of the book, it’s fascinating stuff for anybody that sleeps - and I think my audience here sleeps at a population-average rate.
All of the data issues from yesterday are corrected, which gives me a chance to circle back to Ohtani’s outing on Wednesday - a chance I will never forsake.
Your boy got 24 whiffs on 108 pitches while striking out 11. He hasn’t allowed a since June 9th, when he gave up one over seven innings to the Red Sox. Here’s what the man did in June:
→ 5 GS
→ 29.2 IP
→ 1.52 ERA
→ 0.98 WHIP
→ 38 K
→ 7 BB
→ 113 PA
→ .298 AVG
→ .382 OBP
→ .574 SLG
→ 6 HR
→ 12 R
→ 17 RBI
→ 1 SB
Absurd, I hope we never forget about this man. I would name my next kid after him if that weren’t a super weird thing to do (talk about cultural appropriation, amirite?, we’ll just stick with Trea Turner Anderson for now.
So what happened yesterday?
JT Brubaker went for 16 whiffs, and now he has 31 over his last two starts with a decent 12.8% SwStr% on the year (his slider is at 21.3%, can this guy just PED his way into a good fastball or something? He could be really good...)
Aaron Nola had a hilarious start, getting 16 whiffs, posting an elite 37.3% CSW%, but giving up FIVE barrels. A pitcher giving up five or more barrels in a single outing has only happened 30 times this year, so I’d say Nola was pretty lucky to only give up four earnies there (I called earned run earnies sometimes)
Yusei Kikuchi had a rare good start with eight punchies (I call strikeouts punchies sometimes) against the Rays. He has completed abandoned the cutter (hasn’t thrown one since April), but he did more evenly distribute his FF, SL, and CH yesterday - and that worked. What to do about it? NOTHING - I’ve been to that well too many times, it’s always dry.
Kikuchi’s pitch usage has been pretty funny this year, he’s clearly trying different things - he even went through a phase there where he thought his four-seamer was dope and he threw it like 65% of the time.
His slideboy (I call sliders slideboys sometimes) and changeup are fine (18.3%, 20.4% SwStr% respectively), and his 4-seamer isn’t all that bad either (28.1 CSW%, 10.3% SwStr%), so he’s just the same guy we’ve always known - “stuff” that makes you think there will be a breakout, but just inability to command or whatever else that is holding him down. Do me a favor: if I start talking Kikuchi up again next February - link me this Daily Notes post and/or punch me in the face.
Patrick Wisdom went double-blast off and cost me more money on DraftKings as I didn’t play him against the ground-ball heavy Ashcraft while everybody else did beCauSE oF thE WiNdDdd!
Plenty of people took to my Twitter to last night to tell me I should take the Wrigley Field wind more seriously, and some dude even pointed me to an automated Twitter bot that gives us numbers on the weather factors - so while I love the comedy bit of being really stubborn and doing those alternating capital letters, I will start taking that more seriously. The stupid thing is that Wisdom didn’t even need the wind on his two homers as they went 108.3 and 108.5, both qualifying as blasts. But I suppose I have to take the L here and say I was very wrong to fade him in that spot, and I have been accordingly punished by the loss of my $12.
The other dumb part of all of this is that Chicago’s nickname “The Windy City” has nothing to do with the actual wind. It was a comment on politicians with no backbone that just go wherever the political winds take them. Everybody thinks it’s just more windy in Chicago than other cities - but it’s not true. I think Pittsburgh gets more and higher average winds than Chicago, for example.
BUT that doesn’t mean that the setup of Wrigley Field isn’t particularly oriented and placed to have baseballs be more affected by winds on these extreme days. So I have twisted myself into a pretzel over this shit for years now, and I need to shed the salt and embrace the wind.
Pirates catcher Michael Perez triple-barreled and homered twice. The actionable advice here is only to take a time machine back 24 hours and add him to your fantasy teams and start him in leagues where you can do that.
Some interesting Pirates talk on my Twitter last night, I really think that’s a team that can put together a winning season next year if they invest in some starting pitching. They have very little cash committed to players next year, so they’ll have to spend at least a bit in free agency (they’re not really rolling into the season with a $40 million payroll no matter how cheap you think Bob Nutting is), and there are plenty of SP free agent names that could make sense for the Bucs - so it could be another half-exciting year to be a Pirates fan, which I will very quickly become again at the first sign of fair-weather. Fair weather is the best weather.
One more reminder that I’m going live with John Laghezza today at noon eastern on YouTube! That will eventually become a podcast episode, but you can watch it live and leave your comments if you have nothing better to do with an hour of your life today.
Okay, this has gone on long enough! Happy Independence Day weekend, everybody! I promise you to come out with a very patriotic and positive introduction on Monday’s notes - so that’s a fair trigger warning for you commies!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14.5 SwStr%, 37.3 CSW%
2. JT Brubaker (PIT): 17.0 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 16.0 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
4. Shane Bieber (CLE): 13.1 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
5. Joe Musgrove (SD): 15.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
6. Luis Garcia (HOU): 13.9 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
7. Chris Archer (MIN): 11.1 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
8. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 16.2 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
9. Luis Severino (NYY): 6.9 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%
10. Ian Anderson (ATL): 11.1 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Hendricks - 5.67 IP - 57.0 JA Points
2. Joe Musgrove - 6.67 IP - 51.5 JA Points
3. Aaron Nola - 7.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points
4. Yusei Kikuchi - 6.0 IP - 49.5 JA Points
5. Shane Bieber - 5.67 IP - 46.25 JA Points
6. Luis Garcia - 5.33 IP - 41.5 JA Points
7. JT Brubaker - 6.0 IP - 41.25 JA Points
8. A.J. Puk - 2.33 IP - 37.25 JA Points
9. Tyler Duffey - 1.67 IP - 34.75 JA Points
10. Mitch White - 4.67 IP - 31.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 15 GS - 55.71 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 15 GS - 55.02 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 15 GS - 54.64 JA Points
4. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 6 GS - 51.09 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 10 GS - 50.03 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 13 GS - 50.01 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 15 GS - 48.15 JA Points
8. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 15 GS - 46.14 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.5
Luis Garcia's FC velo (41 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.1
Jesus Cruz's FF velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 93.8
Ryan Yarbrough's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 69.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Martinez's SI usage (65.1%) up 10.7 points
Joe Musgrove's FF usage (37.8%) up 15.6 points
Kyle Hendricks's SI usage (41.5%) up 12.2 points
Luis Garcia's FC usage (40.6%) up 15.2 points
Ryan Yarbrough's SI usage (29.5%) up 16.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 78 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 101 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 122 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 89 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 93 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 36.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 36.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Julio Urias - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Luis Severino - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
Carlos Rodon - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
Max Fried - 76 TBF, 30.3% K%
Luis Garcia - 122 TBF, 30.3% K%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 102 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 111 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Max Fried - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 85 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 122 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Andre Pallante - 104 TBF, 67.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 123 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 105 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Mitch Keller - 90 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 77 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 97 TBF, 56.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 75 TBF, 55.3% GB%
David Peterson - 80 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 77 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 56.6% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 51.5% GB%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 75 TBF, 29.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 55.3% GB%
Max Fried - 76 TBF, 30.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 68 TBF, 36.8 K%, 2.9 BB%, 53.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 99 TBF, 27.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Luis Garcia - +3.6% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.5% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jon Gray - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +4.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Keegan Thompson - +3.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.2% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +5.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.3% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.5% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Trent Thornton - +3.0% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Michael Perez (PIT) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Bo Bichette (TOR) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Dansby Swanson (ATL) 3 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Darick Hall (PHI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Justin Turner (LAD) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 6 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ramon Laureano (OAK) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Michael Perez - 4.0 PA - 86.0 JA Points
2. Justin Turner - 3.0 PA - 75.0 JA Points
3. Patrick Wisdom - 6.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
4. Andrew McCutchen - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Teoscar Hernandez - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Christopher Morel - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Tommy Pham - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Jack Suwinski - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Matt Vierling - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
10. Elvis Andrus - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 276.0 PA - 152.75 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 245.0 PA - 139.43 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 323.0 PA - 125.08 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 324.0 PA - 119.63 JA Points
5. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 317.0 PA - 115.33 JA Points
6. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 282.0 PA - 111.06 JA Points
7. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 305.0 PA - 110.43 JA Points
8. Juan Soto (WSH) - 331.0 PA - 109.61 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 285.0 PA - 107.65 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 255.0 PA - 106.98 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 116.9mph - field_out
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.1mph - field_out
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 114.3mph - single
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 113.0mph - force_out
Max Muncy (LAD) - 111.2mph - single
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 110.6mph - home_run
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 109.6mph - single
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) - 109.5mph - foul
Seth Brown (OAK) - 109.4mph - field_out
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 109.0mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 72 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Luke Voit - 84 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 10 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 81 PA, 55 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.6 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 75 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 89 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 55 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Dansby Swanson - 84 PA, 58 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 86 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 153 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 55 PA, 91 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Harold Castro - 47 PA, 80 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 137 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Austin Nola - 50 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 58 PA, 114 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 67 PA, 128 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 51 PA, 75 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 75 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 155 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 74 PA, 9.5 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Corey Seager - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Josh Bell - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 73 PA, 11.0 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 20.3 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 75 PA, 13.3 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Will Smith - 76 PA, 9.2 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Alex Verdugo - +16.7% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -20.8 Chase%
Randy Arozarena - +9.4% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -6.9 Chase%
Will Smith - +7.7% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Jose Abreu - +8.0% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.2 Chase%
Shohei Ohtani - +9.1% Contact%, +7.5 mph exit velo, -11.6 Chase%
Miguel Cabrera - +4.7% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -9.1 Chase%
Dylan Moore - +11.9% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Alek Thomas - 34.1% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 34.1% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.931 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 35.5% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.918 Cold Rating
Jake Burger - 35.6% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.916 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 31.3% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 34.1% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Jackie Bradley Jr. - 31.9% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 29.0% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating
George Springer - 36.4% Whiff%, 65.5% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 28.4% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.831 Cold Rating
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