MLB Daily Notes: Friday, July 15
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Had a good time chatting with Michael Govier on the Pallazzo Podcast yesterday, you can find that episode all over the place if you’re interested. We talked about half-and-half baseball and non-baseball, so check it out if you’re into that sort of thing.
DraftKings analysis and player pool for tonight can be found here!
Let’s talk briefly about percentiles today. One of my best friends just had a baby. While his wife was in labor I got this text from him:
So he’s our kind of guy.
Anyways, he had the one-week appointment yesterday where they check out your newborn and give you the percentiles of their height and weight. This sent me back to the appointment we had for my daughter, our first kid. Our daughter was in like the 20th percentile of weight, and the nurse told my wife and I to really make sure we’re feeding her fully and often and supplementing and doing all of this other stuff - she said that right after giving the weight percentile mark.
This was taken by my wife as like “oh no she’s underweight, I’m doing something wrong”. This is probably a super common reaction - and the nurse didn’t do nearly enough to stop this reaction from occurring. It really seemed like the nurse through our daughter being in the 20th percentile was at a concern, or at least something to be directly responded to.
Luckily for my wife, she’s married to a Master of Science™.
If you don’t know how percentiles work (I’m certain our nurse did not), here’s a brief explanation.
The percentile is just where a value lines up on a scale from 0-1 among the entire population. The lowest numbers get a 0, the highest number gets 1, and everybody else lines up between them. Here’s an example to make this more clear.
So baby #1 weighs 8.2 pounds, which ranks him 9th-heaviest among the population of 15 babies.
1 - (9 ÷ 15) = 40
And there’s where the 40th percentile comes from. So 60% of babies are heavier, and 40% of babies are lighter.
The kicker here is that some baby must occupy every percentile rank after the population gets past 100. There is no escaping this, even if all babies weigh between 7 and 9 pounds, there would be at least one baby in every single percentile from 0 to 100.
What we’re driving after is that just taking a percentile to mean “good” or “bad” is really a bad interpretation. It’s true that if you have hundreds of thousands of babies in the population, then yeah the babies in percentiles 1-10 or so are probably not a healthy weight and there should be some action taken. The vibe we got from that nurse though was that we need to get our daughter to the 50th percentile as quickly as possible - which is just silliness, only 1% of babies can be in the 50th percentile no matter what the weight range is.
So if you have a baby and the nurse tells you they’re in the 20th or 80th percentile of weight, don’t worry - everything is great.
Now on to baseball!
There are some surprising names at the top of the CSW board from yesterday. Let’s take a look.
Braxton Garrett led the day with a 40.2% CSW%. He struck out 11 Pirates while not giving up a run on two hits over six innings. The Pirate lineup is still bad, but these numbers are pretty impressive. He had 23 total whiffs to lead the day. What doesn’t make a lot of sense from the start is the 40.9% SwStr% he had on his 22 sinkers (that’s nine whiffs). Only Sean Manaea (four times), Garrett Whitlock, Martin Perez, and Josh Fleming have put up more than 9 whiffs on a sinker in a start this year. His sinker does seem to be one of the better ones in the league with an 11.8% SwStr% on the year, but needless to say - a SwStr% above 30% will probably not be happening again for him. The 23%-5.7% K-BB% for the year is pretty strong for the young guy, and he’s been improving throughout the year - so he might be worth an add in deep leagues for the second half.
Kutter Crawford also had a nice start with a 31.9% CSW% and a 14.3% SwStr%. For the year now he has a 27.5% CSW%, a 12.6% SwStr%, a 28.4% K%, and a 9.0% BB%. He is not a ground-ball pitcher (30.9%), so that’s not great - but he’s made some strides in the last few outings.
His arsenal is pretty deep and he has good SwStr% on most of his pitches, so there’s some upside here - he could be a useable fantasy pitcher moving forward.
Triston McKenzie was the real top dog however with a beautiful start of eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts and no walks. That was just his second outing of the year with no walks, but it was good to see him just attack a bad Tigers lineup and have tons of success. We have seen this from McKenzie before where he’ll go on like a three-week tear of being one of the best pitchers in the league, but then completely lose it shortly after. You’re starting McKenzie moving forward, but I wouldn’t get too overly confident about him.
Reid Detmers kept on with the slider usage and added velocity on the pitch, and toughed out six innings against the Astros giving up two runs on five hits while striking out six, but walking three. I’d still call that a positive start for Detmers, and would consider starting him moving forward.
Max Meyer also got the call-up for a start this weekend. In AAA this year, he has put up a 28.4% K%, an 8.3% BB%, a 3.72 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s a talented arm and probably should be picked up - although I wish that walk rate was a couple of points lower.
Bryson Stott is a hot hitter now and he’s hit .245/.344/.358 over the last three weeks with a nice 6.6% K% and a .438 xwOBA - but has suffered from a .234 BABIP. The contact rate is 92% over these last 61 plate appearances, so that’s amazing - and he’s walking a ton at 13.1%. He has two homers over his last 21 PAs while maintaining the 88.6% contact rate with a 14% K%. He’s been quite good, and that is interesting given his former prospect status.
Ha-Seong Kim has also been much better, again… He’s hitting .294/.393/.431 with a homer, a 13% K%, a 15% BB%, an 82% contacT5, and a .378 xwOBA over the last three weeks. The rolling barrel rate chart on him is pretty funny
I’m actually not sure if this kind of chart is technically called “rolling”. What you see above is his full-season Brl% on every day of the season, so it’s a progression rather than a rolling number. I think “rolling” charts might have to be a thing where it looks back the same X days every day to see how it’s gone… this might just be a progression chart… or something.
Anyways, Kim has made contact at a high rate all year long but the barrels and hard-hits just disappeared three for a while, but now they are coming back. The only reason he’s interesting for fantasy is the steals and the third base eligibility, but I have him on my team for now so we’ll see where it goes from here.
Jose Miranda has also been quite good recently, hitting .333/.379/.611 over the last three weeks with four homers and a nice 8.6% K%.
He’s another rookie that is worthy of consideration for the second half.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 22.5 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 20.2 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
3. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 15.6 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
4. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 16.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
5. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 11.2 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Kyle Wright (ATL): 14.6 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
7. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
8. Tyler Anderson (LAD): 12.5 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
9. Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC): 10.6 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
10. Luis Castillo (CIN): 9.6 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Triston McKenzie - 8.0 IP - 93.75 JA Points
2. Braxton Garrett - 6.0 IP - 87.75 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes - 7.33 IP - 79.0 JA Points
4. Luis Castillo - 7.0 IP - 60.25 JA Points
5. Drew Rasmussen - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
6. Carlos Carrasco - 6.0 IP - 52.25 JA Points
7. Kutter Crawford - 6.0 IP - 51.75 JA Points
8. Framber Valdez - 6.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
9. Reid Detmers - 6.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
10. Tyler Anderson - 5.67 IP - 42.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 9 GS - 56.7 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 18 GS - 54.82 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 18 GS - 53.66 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 15 GS - 53.23 JA Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 10 GS - 48.95 JA Points
8. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 13 GS - 47.58 JA Points
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 18 GS - 46.42 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 18 GS - 46.37 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Reid Detmers's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 85.5
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (29 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.4
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 87.1
Tyler Anderson's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.0
Luis Castillo's SI velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 98.1
Triston McKenzie's CU velo (24 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 81.0
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.1
Zach Thompson's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.9
Zach Thompson's SI velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.6
Elvin Rodriguez's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.1
Carlos Carrasco's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.7
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 84.0
Zach Thompson's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 75.2
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 89.0
Dakota Hudson's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 78.0
Elvin Rodriguez's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -4.2mph to 75.6
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -5.6mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Corbin Burnes's CH usage (17.4%) up 10.1 points
Dakota Hudson's FF usage (27.7%) up 10.8 points
Drew Rasmussen's FF usage (48.3%) up 14.5 points
Kyle Freeland's CU usage (28.6%) up 10.9 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (50.0%) up 20.2 points
Tyler Anderson's FF usage (50.0%) up 15.6 points
Zach Thompson's FC usage (58.0%) up 23.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Mark Leiter Jr. - 78 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 105 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 51.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 44.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 43.7% K%
David Peterson - 88 TBF, 38.6% K%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.0% K%
Robbie Ray - 72 TBF, 36.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Josiah Gray - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 43.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 36.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
David Peterson - 88 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Josiah Gray - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 115 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 92 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Andre Pallante - 99 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 63.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 100 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Justin Steele - 74 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 90 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Mitch Keller - 95 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 1.5 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 28.2 K%, 6.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Jon Gray - 99 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Max Castillo - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Scott Barlow - 46 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.0 K%, 3.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Josiah Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Cristian Javier - +5.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Trevor Williams - +3.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Max Scherzer - +6.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Naylor (CLE) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Chavis (PIT) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Brandon Nimmo - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
2. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Andres Gimenez - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
4. Rowdy Tellez - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
5. Edward Olivares - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
6. Joey Wendle - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
7. Gavin Lux - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
8. Luis Robert - 5.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
9. Josh Naylor - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
10. Jose Iglesias - 5.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (WSH) - 376.0 PA - 126.06 JA Points
3. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 292.0 PA - 123.7 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 370.0 PA - 112.97 JA Points
5. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 381.0 PA - 112.23 JA Points
6. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 392.0 PA - 111.94 JA Points
7. Will Smith (LAD) - 309.0 PA - 109.39 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 334.0 PA - 106.11 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 333.0 PA - 101.74 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.0mph - home_run
Yoan Moncada (CWS) - 111.5mph - single
Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.2mph - home_run
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.1mph - home_run
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 110.5mph - single
Josh Bell (WSH) - 110.4mph - home_run
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) - 109.6mph - single
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) - 109.4mph - single
Nolan Arenado (STL) - 109.2mph - foul
Juan Soto (WSH) - 108.9mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 76 PA, 46 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 53 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 76 PA, 54 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 74 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 52 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 57 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Luke Voit - 66 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 86 PA, 125 Swings, 95.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 79 Swings, 94.9 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 82 PA, 119 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 61 PA, 111 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 84 PA, 136 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Myles Straw - 72 PA, 116 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Nicky Lopez - 65 PA, 115 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jesse Winker - 52 PA, 91 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Yan Gomes - 54 PA, 108 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Nimmo - 86 PA, 18.6 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 19.6 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 76 PA, 19.7 K%, 24.1 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 71 PA, 15.5 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 68 PA, 8.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Luis Robert - +5.8% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -13.2 Chase%
Randal Grichuk - +14.4% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -11.3 Chase%
Bryson Stott - +6.4% Contact%, +7.3 mph exit velo, -9.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
George Springer - 0.401 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 75.8% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Justin Turner - 0.418 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 81.0% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.394 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 78.9% Contact%, 23.4% Chase%, 17.9% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.407 xwOBA, 11.6% Brl%, 87.0% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 17.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Patrick Wisdom - 38.9% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.955 Cold Rating
Willson Contreras - 42.5% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.936 Cold Rating
Jack Suwinski - 33.8% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 34.0% Whiff%, 69.4% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Jake Meyers - 32.1% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 30.0% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Manny Machado - 33.3% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
Jonathan Villar - 32.6% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Ben Gamel - 39.7% Whiff%, 64.7% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating
Franchy Cordero - 43.9% Whiff%, 63.6% Weak%, 0.825 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $5/month or $40/year - along with a ton more stuff.