MLB Daily Notes: Friday, June 3
We’ve gotta get right into business today, so here we go!
The pitcher of the day is Graham Ashcraft, who I actually got to see pitch a few weeks ago in what turned out to be his last start with the Reds’ AAA affiliate in Louisville. Guy was throwing absolute smoke and struck out nine batters. Now he’s made three starts in the Majors and has gotten progressively better each time. He put up a strong 34.8% CSW% yesterday with a 12% SwStr% that is more “good” than “great”. For the year, he’s got a bad 25% CSW%, 7.3% SwStr%, and just a 12.7% K%, but he’s managed walks (7%) and gotten tons of ground-balls (62.5%).
The arsenal is pretty thin with a cutter, a sinker, and a slider. The cutter and sinker both come in very hot at 98 and 97 miles per hour on average. They both get a lot of ground-balls, which is going to have to continue for this dude to have success up here.
The 9.7% SwStr% on the slider is really discouraging. If that mark were around 16% I’d really be a believer here. Encouragingly it was up to 22% in the start yesterday, so this is really something to monitor. Any pitcher throwing the sinker/cutter combination with a wipeout slider has immense upside, and the GB% gives him a decent floor too, especially in Great American Ballpark. If you need a pitcher I’d probably add Ashcraft to see where we go, but it’s really dependent on that slider maintaining a SwStr% above 15% or so.
Hitter of the day could’ve been Joey Votto once again as he doinked another homer, added a second hit, and walked twice - but we talked about him yesterday.
If we look at the Hot Hitter Tracker, we see Trevor Larnach sticking out.
The 65% contact rate over the last week is still bad, but an improvement from his usual, and he’s been smashing the ball this year with an 11.4% Brl% and a 47% hard-hit rate. Those marks are up to 12% and 52% over the last two weeks as he’s hit .222/.341/.556 with three dingers. He is a classic high strikeout power hitter, but a power hitter nonetheless - and he’s probably free in your league right now so check him out if you need some dingers.
We’ve got a really nice strikeout prop bet sticking out in the K prop tracker of Nathan Eovaldi over 5.5 strikeouts against the Athletics. Right now the line is just -105 on FanDuel too so I’d be jumping on that. Seems like a smash (famous last words).
DraftKings Fridays
And now on to the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 12.0 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
2. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 12.5 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
3. Alex Wood (SF): 8.9 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%
4. Sean Manaea (SD): 15.5 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
5. Corey Kluber (TB): 11.6 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
6. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 9.0 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
7. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 13.5 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
8. Chris Archer (MIN): 12.3 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
9. Jameson Taillon (NYY): 13.9 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%
10. Taylor Hearn (TEX): 10.1 SwStr%, 28.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Sean Manaea - 6.0 IP - 67.0 JA Points
2. Jameson Taillon - 8.0 IP - 64.0 JA Points
3. Sandy Alcantara - 7.0 IP - 55.75 JA Points
4. Alex Wood - 5.33 IP - 47.5 JA Points
5. Alek Manoah - 7.67 IP - 47.25 JA Points
6. Nestor Cortes - 6.67 IP - 46.5 JA Points
7. Graham Ashcraft - 7.0 IP - 46.25 JA Points
8. Ian Anderson - 6.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
9. Alex Faedo - 5.0 IP - 40.0 JA Points
10. Tony Gonsolin - 6.0 IP - 39.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 10 GS - 56.55 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 10 GS - 54.68 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 10 GS - 50.23 JA Points
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 10 GS - 48.46 JA Points
6. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 8 GS - 48.33 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 10 GS - 48.25 JA Points
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 9 GS - 47.26 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 86.5
Sean Manaea's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 82.3
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 78.8
Taylor Hearn's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.4
Joan Adon's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 80.7
Matthew Liberatore's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 72.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Faedo's FF usage (59.6%) up 11.0 points
Jhonathan Diaz's FF usage (47.2%) up 31.5 points
Johnny Cueto's CH usage (40.5%) up 27.3 points
Matthew Liberatore's CH usage (26.2%) up 15.7 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (29.1%) up 18.2 points
Shohei Ohtani's FS usage (22.7%) up 10.2 points
Taijuan Walker's FS usage (44.7%) up 18.0 points
Tony Gonsolin's FF usage (46.1%) up 12.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 86 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 79 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 93 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Frankie Montas - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Justin Steele - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
Robbie Ray - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Cristian Javier - 84 TBF, 32.1% K%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1% K%
Hunter Greene - 93 TBF, 31.2% K%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 30.2% K%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Frankie Montas - 82 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 99 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 118 TBF, 59.8% GB%
Alex Cobb - 75 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 78 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 94 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Martin Perez - 108 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 100 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Walker Buehler - 98 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 104 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 85 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 68.6% GB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Luis Castillo - 85 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.9 BB%, 54.4% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 30.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 30.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 34.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Christopher Morel (CHC) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Daz Cameron (DET) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 8 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesse Winker (SEA) 6 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jonathan Schoop (DET) 3 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jesse Winker - 6.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points
2. Jorge Alfaro - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
3. Travis d'Arnaud - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Joey Votto - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Jace Peterson - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
6. Connor Joe - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
7. Frank Schwindel - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
8. Matt Duffy - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Daz Cameron - 3.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Nick Gordon - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 199.0 PA - 142.71 JA Points
2. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 155.0 PA - 132.13 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 186.0 PA - 127.96 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 210.0 PA - 122.1 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 215.0 PA - 114.05 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 232.0 PA - 112.07 JA Points
7. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 226.0 PA - 107.79 JA Points
8. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 210.0 PA - 107.24 JA Points
9. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 226.0 PA - 104.96 JA Points
10. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 152.0 PA - 104.47 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 115.3mph - nan
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 113.4mph - single
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 111.9mph - nan
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.6mph - double
Jonathan Schoop (DET) - 111.6mph - single
Jorge Alfaro (SD) - 111.3mph - home_run
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 111.0mph - field_out
Manny Machado (SD) - 110.4mph - field_out
Austin Riley (ATL) - 110.0mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 110.0mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Evan Longoria - 55 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 52 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 82 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Trevor Story - 83 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 78 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 85 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 88 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 84 PA, 47 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Guillorme - 51 PA, 81 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 67 PA, 128 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 91 PA, 140 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 50 PA, 80 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Myles Straw - 68 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 71 PA, 89 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 65 PA, 126 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 86 PA, 152 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 64 PA, 105 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 75 PA, 122 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Walker - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 16.1 K%, 23.3 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 84 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Ryan Mountcastle - +5.6% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Patrick Wisdom - +9.3% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -17.1 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +10.6% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Starling Marte - +6.8% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Dansby Swanson - +7.5% Contact%, +2.5 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Kole Calhoun - +4.4% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -2.3 Chase%
Trevor Larnach - +4.3% Contact%, +2.0 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Ramon Laureano - +8.8% Contact%, +9.0 mph exit velo, -13.8 Chase%
Nick Senzel - +3.4% Contact%, +2.1 mph exit velo, -8.2 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +5.8% Contact%, +2.4 mph exit velo, -2.2 Chase%
Harold Castro - +3.0% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -2.0 Chase%
Jose Ramirez - +10.9% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Myles Straw - +13.7% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -12.5 Chase%
Cristian Pache - +7.9% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -17.5 Chase%
Josh Naylor - +15.9% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -13.4 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +2.4% Contact%, +7.9 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Bobby Dalbec - +9.8% Contact%, +8.7 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
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