MLB Daily Notes: Friday, May 20
Three barrels and 101 JA points for Trevor Story yesterday. That was a season-best score for a single game. Here’s the top five hitter performances of the year by my algorithm.
Trevor Story 5/19: 101 Points
Willy Adames 4/26: 97 Points
Joc Pederson 4/24: 96 Points
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 4/13: 89 Points
Giancarlo Stanton 5/12: 84 Points
Story’s slugging percentage climbed nearly 100 full points from .320 to .412 - ridiculous stuff there. He even added a steal to the mix.
There weren’t any real standout pitching performances, but Gibson put up another nice start and led the slate in JA points. He now has maintained a strong 13.2% SwStr% through eight starts. The K% is still mediocre at 20.8%, but he’s managed walks (7.3%) and gotten plenty of ground balls (51.6%). I would say he’s a start-worthy pitcher in most matchups moving forward.
We missed two of the three strikeout prop picks yesterday (Mahle, Montgomery), but hit on Glenn Otto. Hopefully you all put a jillion dollars on Otto and none on anybody else!
I’m not seeing any real big stand-out picks tonight, but if you’re begging me to lay a couple of recommendations down:
Eric Lauer UNDER 6.5
Nationals have struck out just 17% of the time against lefties. The model spit out just 5.2 strikeouts for Lauer even giving him a full allotment of pitches (95). The one issue is that the model is using 2021 data just as much as 2022 data, so it’s not fully accounting for the improvements he’s made. I think under 6.5 is pretty likely, but of course the value is juiced out of it (-126 on FanDuel, -155 on DraftKings).
Dallas Keuchel UNDER 3.5 on FanDuel
Never mind, this line disappeared! It was 3.5 to open, but they took it off the books. I suppose that will show up against at 2.5, or if it’s 3.5 it will be like -160 or something to take our edge away. Smoething to keep an eye on though, the model has just 2.3 strikeouts for Keuchel.
Erick Fedde OVER 3.5 on FanDuel
Model is a full strikeout above 3.5, but again - the juice (-172) makes this a coin-flip at best. I’m not staking any of my reputation on these picks!
As for the total base props, I realized last evening how dumb I was being with that. I The sheet we currently have running is comparing the projected total bases with the sports book line (0.5 or 1.5), but that’s the wrong way to do it. There is no advantage to a guy hitting a homer if the line is 0.5 - a single and a homer are all the same. The model was giving preference to the guys more likely to hit homers, but it shouldn’t do that. I need to re-work it somehow just to see what players are most likely to get a total base and then find the advantageous 0.5 lines on the books. More to come on that!
Alright, enough chatter - here’s the rest of the stuff!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 14.3 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
2. Framber Valdez (HOU): 14.6 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
3. Carlos Hernandez (KC): 13.0 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
4. Cal Quantrill (CLE): 7.4 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
5. Kyle Gibson (PHI): 13.0 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
6. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 15.8 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
7. Tyler Mahle (CIN): 5.7 SwStr%, 27.6 CSW%
8. Tanner Houck (BOS): 15.5 SwStr%, 27.6 CSW%
9. Yu Darvish (SD): 11.1 SwStr%, 26.9 CSW%
10. Rich Hill (BOS): 7.1 SwStr%, 26.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Gibson - 5.67 IP - 55.25 JA Points
2. Marcus Stroman - 5.0 IP - 53.25 JA Points
3. Framber Valdez - 7.0 IP - 52.0 JA Points
4. Yu Darvish - 7.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
5. Tanner Houck - 4.0 IP - 42.0 JA Points
6. Cal Quantrill - 6.67 IP - 41.75 JA Points
7. Jordan Montgomery - 5.0 IP - 37.75 JA Points
8. Wandy Peralta - 2.0 IP - 31.5 JA Points
9. Tyler Mahle - 6.33 IP - 30.0 JA Points
10. Hector Neris - 1.0 IP - 27.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 56.99 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 8.0 GS - 56.08 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 54.04 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 7.0 GS - 53.37 JA Points
5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 7.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 50.98 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 49.65 JA Points
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 8.0 GS - 49.03 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 6.0 GS - 48.41 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Chris Bassitt's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 79.7
Cal Quantrill's CH velo (14 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.4
Jordan Montgomery's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.9
Framber Valdez's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.6
Cal Quantrill's FC velo (34 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.2
Jordan Montgomery's SI velo (33 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.6
Carlos Hernandez's KC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bruce Zimmermann's SI usage (15.4%) up 11.9 points
George Kirby's SL usage (36.6%) up 11.9 points
Kyle Gibson's FF usage (19.0%) up 13.3 points
Rich Hill's SL usage (23.2%) up 11.5 points
Yu Darvish's SI usage (18.5%) up 12.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 84 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 79 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 43.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Sean Manaea - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 79 TBF, 30.4% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 30.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Corey Kluber - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 80 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 78 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 79 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Joan Adon - 80 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Alex Wood - 89 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Adrian Houser - 94 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 35.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Luis Garcia - 126 TBF, 27.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Nick Martinez - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Trevor Story (BOS) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Franmil Reyes (CLE) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Hunter Dozier (KC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Trevor Story - 5.0 PA - 101.0 JA Points
2. Giancarlo Stanton - 5.0 PA - 75.0 JA Points
3. Hunter Dozier - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
4. Anthony Santander - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
5. Tyler Naquin - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Dylan Moore - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
7. Pete Alonso - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Tim Anderson - 5.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
9. Kyle Isbel - 4.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
10. Franmil Reyes - 4.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 127.0 PA - 153.7 JA Points
2. Mike Trout (LAA) - 144.0 PA - 138.89 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 156.0 PA - 138.46 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 141.0 PA - 130.78 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 162.0 PA - 126.67 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 172.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
7. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 154.0 PA - 115.32 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 162.0 PA - 107.41 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 131.0 PA - 106.26 JA Points
10. Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 149.0 PA - 104.97 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.0mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.7mph - home_run
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) - 111.9mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.1mph - single
Tyler Naquin (CIN) - 111.0mph - home_run
Trey Mancini (BAL) - 110.0mph - single
Hunter Dozier (KC) - 109.9mph - home_run
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 109.6mph - field_out
Ian Happ (CHC) - 109.5mph - field_out
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 109.1mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 46 BIP, 14 Brls, 30.4 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 51 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 75 PA, 52 BIP, 14 Brls, 26.9 Brl%
Mike Trout - 77 PA, 44 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Trevor Story - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 81 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 76 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 72 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 61 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 66 PA, 93 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 69 PA, 116 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 49 PA, 86 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Wander Franco - 75 PA, 159 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 49 PA, 78 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Ty France - 89 PA, 172 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 79 PA, 151 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 73 PA, 145 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 129 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Wilmer Flores - 64 PA, 126 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Brendan Rodgers - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 17.8 Brl%
Christian Walker - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 26.9 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 69 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Jeimer Candelario - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 14.6 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Justin Turner - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM Sportsbook betting lines
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
If you’re seeing this, you’ve become a paid sub! Thanks so much for that! If you still don’t have access to any of the below links, please DM me on Twitter or email me and I’ll get you added ASAP.