MLB Daily Notes - July 15th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
DASHBOARD LINKS HAVE BEEN CHANGED
Main MLB dashboard
Main MLB dashboard with 2022-2023 data
MiLB Statcast Dashboard
MLB & MiLB Stats
Check the bottom of this post or the resource glossary for the updated links
I’ll try to do a recap of the recommended bets here in the notes every day, although I will probably fail at that. I am interested to see if we can really profit on strikeout & walk pitcher props, because so far - from what I’ve tracked, it has been profitable. I’m pretty skeptical about that so I’m tracking closely. It didn’t go well yesterday:
Alec Marsh over 4.5 K +115 [PPD]
Michael Kopech over 4.5 K +125Eduardo Rodriguez under 6.5 K -140Jon Gray over 1.5 BB +105 ✅
Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 BB +105 ✅
Cristopher Sanchez over 1.5 BB -135Justin Verlander under 5.5 K -105
The nice thing for me is that I put all of 50 cents on all of those so I don’t really even care if we lose!
Links to the trackers:
I will try to get the bets out today in a game previews post, but I can’t make any promises on Saturdays.
Corbin Burnes really had it going yesterday in Cincinnati. He almost took a rare daily notes triple crown, which is a new thing I invented last week for when a pitcher
scores the most fantasy points
has the most whiffs
has the highest Strike%
But Maeda just beat him out in Strike% at 56.2%. Great stuff from both of those pitchers, but extra good to see Burnes having a big whiff day - because those have been down a lot this year.
Burnes went a little more to the curveball yesterday. For the year he’s around 18% curveball usage, but yesterday it went to 30%. And it worked beautifully.
We’ve gotta just get to the report now since I have to wrap this up. Trea baby is rolling all around the floor trying to get to my laptop, so he needs some attention. There are no hot hitters here because that uses the last seven calendar days rather than last seven MLB game days (if you're hot, you would think it’d wear off with a few days not playing), and there have only been three games played max for a team in these last seven days. So that’ll be back next week some time.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (vs. CIN): 41.1 Points
2. Julio Urias (vs. NYM): 30.3 Points
3. Yu Darvish (vs. PHI): 29.3 Points
4. Dean Kremer (vs. MIA): 29.1 Points
5. Charlie Morton (vs. CWS): 25.35 Points
6. Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. SEA): 22.25 Points
7. Brayan Bello (vs. CHC): 16.7 Points
8. Ross Stripling (vs. PIT): 15.51 Points
9. Sandy Alcantara (vs. BAL): 14.1 Points
10. Austin Gomber (vs. NYY): 13.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 21 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Dean Kremer (BAL): 16 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 14 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
4. Yu Darvish (SD): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 12 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 12 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Justin Verlander (NYM): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
9. Luis Castillo (SEA): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Julio Urias (LAD): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 56.2 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 55.9 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
3. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 51.4 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
4. Julio Urias (LAD): 50.6 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
5. Luis Castillo (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
6. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
7. Ross Stripling (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Dean Kremer (BAL): 49.5 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
9. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 48.9 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
10. Yu Darvish (SD): 47.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
11. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 47.6 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
12. Brayan Bello (BOS): 47.3 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
13. Justin Verlander (NYM): 47.1 Strike%, 43.3 Ball%
14. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 46.8 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
15. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 46.8 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.2
Rich Hill's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.9
Yu Darvish's CU velo (21 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 77.6
Austin Gomber's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.8
Jose Berrios's CH velo (20 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 85.1
Jose Berrios's SV velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 83.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's SL usage (33.3%) up 15.8 points
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (38.6%) up 21.2 points
Corbin Burnes's CU usage (29.4%) up 12.6 points
Cristopher Sanchez's SI usage (62.0%) up 12.1 points
Graham Ashcraft's FC usage (67.6%) up 12.2 points
Kyle Hendricks's FF usage (36.9%) up 15.1 points
Luis Castillo's CH usage (26.4%) up 10.3 points
Rich Hill's CH usage (12.1%) up 11.3 points
Ryne Nelson's FC usage (33.0%) up 18.6 points
Yu Darvish's SL usage (33.0%) up 16.1 points
Yu Darvish's CU usage (22.3%) up 12.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Blake Snell 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%
Jon Gray Slider: +15.0%
Brandon Bielak Slider: -14.0%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +13.8%
Patrick Corbin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Michael Lorenzen 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Joe Ryan Sweeper: +13.4%
Bryan Woo Slider: -13.3%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +13.1%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -13.0%
Matthew Liberatore 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Lance Lynn Slider: +12.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -12.4%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -12.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 67 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Blake Snell - 69 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 76 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 79 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 68 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Andrew Abbott - 73 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 73 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 67 TBF, 46.3% K%
Blake Snell - 69 TBF, 40.6% K%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 38.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 38.5% K%
Joe Ryan - 64 TBF, 37.5% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Reid Detmers - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Andrew Abbott - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 67 TBF, 41.8% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 64 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 79 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 76 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 69 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Luis Medina - 74 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 84 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 72 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 103 TBF, 53.9% GB%
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