MLB Daily Notes - July 11th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Looking at the underlying stuff on Pablo Lopez last night, you would have thought he had one of his best outings of the year in the box score.
18 whiffs, 20% SwStr%, 57.8% Strike%, 25.6% Ball%
And yet, just five innings, allowing two runs on four hits and striking out five. He’s been a buy-low all year, and that is not changing. His ranks on my automated SP ranks:
Overall: 17th
Last 30 Days: 8th
Last 60 Days: 17th
The last 30 days ranks:
Not a ton of surprising names besides MacKenzie Gore and Bailey Ober being so high up there, and then appearances of DJ Herz (who got demoted for Joan Adon, just a ridiculous thing to happen) and Spencer Schwellenbach.
Frankie Montas was dominated by Sam Hilliard, giving up two homers to the man. Otherwise, he took advantage of the matchup and got the strikeouts we thought he would. He put up 19 whiffs and an 18.8% SwStr%, striking out seven in seven innings (five runs on eight hits).
Framber Valdez also took advantage of his great matchup with the Marlins. He went seven innings, giving up one run on six hits, and he struck out 10.
It has not been a typical Valdez season, but the ceiling is still there, with three starts above 30 fantasy points.
Tanner Bibee was disappointing against the Tigers, giving up a few home runs and allowing four earned runs. He did get through seven innings with eight strikeouts, so it wasn’t all bad, but the 12.8% SwStr% and 48.6% Strike% were down a bit from what we had been seeing (these are still pretty good marks, though).
Reese Olson
6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 12.6% SwStr%, 45.3% Strike%
Not as good as what we had seen lately, but not a bad start either, earning the qual-banger. He must not have been getting ahead very often, because he had to use his four-seamer more than usual:
And any time that happens, he’s probably not going to have a great line. The 12.6% SwStr% was brought down by the 6.3% mark on those 32 four-seamers and the 0% mark on the 11 sinkers.
Same story with Olson. You can roll him out there in deeper leagues, and you’ll get some gems - but there are a lot of ways for things to go south with him.
Logan Webb got roughed up by the Blue Jays of all teams.
5 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 11.6% SwStr%, 45.3% Strike%, 32.6% Ball%
He allowed three barrels and a homer. That was his sixth homer allowed. He now has allowed a homer every 84.5 PAs this season, the third-best in the league.
PA/HR Leaders - Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez 211
Tanner Houck 91
Logan Webb 85
Reese Olson 70
Reynaldo Lopez 60
MacKenzie Gore 59
Chris Sale 59
Chris Bassitt 58
Cole Ragans 56
Sean Manaea 53
So how do you prevent home runs? This is fantastic subject material for the Excel course I’m working on. We can use a simple linear regression to see what kind of inputs project the home run rate output. I’m not going to get into it right now, but I already know the answer anyways. To prevent home runs, you want to prevent fly balls. To prevent fly balls, you want to prevent balls in play. If you can’t prevent balls in play, you can just make it more likely that the balls in play go on the ground. That means throwing sinkers and splitters, or just having awesome command. It doesn’t matter what kind of pitch it is, if it’s on the low-and-away corner, you’re probably not giving up a home run on that.
So let’s add some stats to these top ten. Let’s look at K% and GB% for each guy:
Sanchez: 21% K%, 60% GB%
Houck: 23% K%, 55% GB%
Webb: 21% K%, 58% GB%
Olson: 22% K%, 51% GB% 🚩
Lopez: 26% K%, 38% GB% 🚩
Gore: 27% K%, 35% GB% 🚩
Sale: 33% K%, 49% GB%
Bassitt: 21% K%, 43% GB% 🚩🚩🚩
Ragans: 30% K%, 41% GB%
Manaea: 23% K%, 37% GB% 🚩🚩🚩
The single red flags are for guys with one concerning category there (either low K or low GB), the three red flags are for guys with concerns in both. Why did I use one flag for one problem but three flags for two? I don’t know, but I’m not changing it.
Hitter Review
Let’s look at the highest rates of fantasy point scoring this year, minimum 250 PAs.
Ohtani - 2.64 fantasy points per PA
Judge - 2.61
Yelich - 2.47
Witt Jr. - 2.45
Henderson - 2.45
Ramirez - 2.43
Tucker - 2.42
Elly - 2.40
Devers- 2.29
Soto - 2.28
Harper - 2.27
Ozuna - 2.22
Rengifo - 2.13
Kwan - 2.13
Rooker - 2.13
Alvarez - 2.12
Naylor - 2.11
Betts - 2.10
Abrams - 2.10
Correa - 2.10
Christian Yelich has performed like a first-rounder this year when on the field. He’s slashing .335/.417/.534 with 11 homers (26 PA/HR) and 21 steals. Crazy good year for him.
The other surprising names here are Kwan, Rooker, Rengifo, and Correa. We haven’t seen Rengifo for awhile, but he was hitting .315 with 6 homers and 22 steals in just 269 PAs, a very useful fantasy asset.
And Carlos Correa is having a bit of a renaissance with a big .526 SLG now. He’s homered 13 times in 311 PAs (24 PA/HR).
I’m running out of time today. But let’s take a look back at Joey Loperfido, he homered last night and now has done this at the Major League level:
87 PA, .288/.333/.450, 2 HR, 4% Brl%, 36% K%, 67% Cont%, .308 xwOBA
He has a .438 BABIP which has boosted that slash line, otherwise everything looks really bad for him. So that was a waste of a paragraph.
Lars Nootbaar is also back and homered yesterday. He has been on the IL for most of the year. Since last season he’s done this:
.254/.355/.415, .770 OPS, 8.8% Brl%, 20% K%, 82% Cont%, 51% GB%, 8% SB Attempt%
He does a little bit of everything, but nothing great. He’s good enough for deeper leagues, definitely someone who can be a ent postiive on a fantasy team if he’s available on waivers.
Colt Keith continues his hot streak. He’s now hitting .382/.447/.853 in July with four homers. He has his OPS up to .679 on the year with a 7.6% Brl% and 19% K%. It’s good that he hasn’t had trouble with the strikeout, he makes contact at a good rate (79%), he just needed to figure out to get the ball off the bat in a better trajectory. I’d prioritize him in deep leagues, and he’s becoming a fringe option right now even in a 10-team situation or something light.
Brenton Doyle leads the league in July homers with six of them. He has a 1.922 OPS this month (37 PAs). Absolute legend.
Lawrence Butler had a nice game last night and brought his July OPS to 1.083. He has three homers and two steals in these 29 PAs, and he’s moved up in the lineup. He’s a DFS darling, having made me very happy the last two nights as I’ve played him.
And don’t look now (seriously, don’t look now) but Martin Maldonado is slashing .357/.438/1.071 in July. Lol.
Baseball all day today! I will get the slate preview out early.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez
2. Bailey Ober
3. Framber Valdez
4. Cristopher Sanchez
5. Erick Fedde
6. Alec Marsh
7. Frankie Montas
8. JP Sears
9. Michael King
10. Kyle Freeland
11. Nick Pivetta
12. Andre Pallante
13. Shota Imanaga
14. Tobias Myers
15. Tanner Bibee
16. Reese Olson
17. Michael Wacha
18. Griffin Canning
19. Corbin Burnes
20. Logan Webb
21. Chris Bassitt
22. Patrick Corbin
23. Charlie Morton
24. Zach Eflin
25. Bryce Miller
26. Gavin Stone
27. Luis Severino
28. Slade Cecconi
29. Drew Thorpe
30. Michael Lorenzen
31. Marcus Stroman
32. Martin Perez
33. Bryan Hoeing
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (vs. MIA): 33.55 Points
2. Tobias Myers (vs. PIT): 31.0 Points
3. Kyle Freeland (vs. CIN): 27.61 Points
4. JP Sears (vs. BOS): 27.16 Points
5. Michael King (vs. SEA): 27.1 Points
6. Shota Imanaga (vs. BAL): 25.3 Points
7. Alec Marsh (vs. STL): 25.1 Points
8. Zach Eflin (vs. NYY): 22.75 Points
9. Nick Pivetta (vs. OAK): 22.21 Points
10. Erick Fedde (vs. MIN): 21.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. JP Sears (OAK): 20 Whiffs (114 Pitches)
2. Frankie Montas (CIN): 19 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 18 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Framber Valdez (HOU): 17 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Bailey Ober (MIN): 17 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
6. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
7. Erick Fedde (CWS): 16 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Alec Marsh (KC): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
9. Andre Pallante (STL): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 57.8 Strike%, 25.6 Ball%
2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 53.8 Strike%, 26.4 Ball%
3. Michael King (SD): 51.6 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
4. Framber Valdez (HOU): 51.6 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
5. Alec Marsh (KC): 51.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
6. Bailey Ober (MIN): 51.2 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
7. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 51.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
8. JP Sears (OAK): 50.0 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
9. Kyle Freeland (COL): 49.5 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
10. Zach Eflin (TB): 49.5 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
11. Erick Fedde (CWS): 48.9 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
12. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 48.6 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
13. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 48.6 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
14. Charlie Morton (ATL): 46.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
15. Martin Perez (PIT): 46.7 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Drew Thorpe: 76 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.22 POUT
2. Tobias Myers: 103 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.29 POUT
3. Bryce Miller: 80 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.44 POUT
4. Framber Valdez: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
5. Bailey Ober: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
6. Frankie Montas: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
7. Patrick Corbin: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
8. Kyle Freeland: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT
9. Zach Eflin: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
10. Charlie Morton: 96 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.05 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (20 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 92.1
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 87.0
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (34 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.5
Gavin Stone's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 90.7
Gavin Stone's FF velo (10 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 96.7
Cristopher Sanchez's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.4
Gavin Stone's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.7
Bryce Miller's FS velo (13 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.9
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 90.7
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (35 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.4
Andre Pallante's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 79.7
Frankie Montas's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.7
Michael Wacha's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.2
Gavin Stone's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 96.5
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.4
Tanner Bibee's FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.2
Reese Olson's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.1
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 81.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (31.0%) up 21.7 points
Drew Thorpe's FC usage (32.9%) up 19.5 points
Erick Fedde's FC usage (54.4%) up 24.5 points
Framber Valdez's CU usage (38.9%) up 10.7 points
Framber Valdez's SL usage (13.7%) up 12.2 points
Gavin Stone's SL usage (26.0%) up 12.3 points
Kyle Freeland's CU usage (36.6%) up 18.8 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (27.9%) up 18.1 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (22.8%) up 15.9 points
Michael Wacha's SL usage (16.7%) up 12.8 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (39.0%) up 27.4 points
Patrick Corbin's SL usage (47.9%) up 11.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Severino Sinker: +21.0%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +19.6%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -19.1%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -16.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +15.6%
Yariel Rodriguez Slider: -15.4%
Emerson Hancock Sinker: +15.3%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -15.1%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +15.0%
Logan Webb Changeup: -14.9%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.7%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -14.4%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +14.4%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +14.3%
Emerson Hancock 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Spencer Schwellenbach Split-Finger: +13.5%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +13.4%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.2%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Nick Lodolo 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Ryne Nelson Cutter: -12.5%
Luis Gil Slider: +12.5%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.4%
Kyle Hendricks 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.1%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.0%
Griffin Canning 4-Seam Fastball: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 74 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 71 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 100 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Brandon Pfaadt - 70 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 69 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 67 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Nestor Cortes - 69 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 41.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 74 TBF, 36.5% K%
Pablo Lopez - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Taj Bradley - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Cole Ragans - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Bailey Ober - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 74 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 94 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 100 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 68 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Jameson Taillon - 98 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ranger Suarez - 75 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Andre Pallante - 96 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 97 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Ben Lively - 94 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Tanner Houck - 66 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Max Fried - 80 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Aaron Nola - 76 TBF, 53.8% GB%
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