MLB Daily Notes - July 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Crazy day yesterday, huh? My mom grew up in Butler, PA. We spent a lot of time there as kids. My aunt and uncle actually went to the rally. Really sad and crazy stuff to happen, another very bad sign for our country.
Nobody needs me to say anything about it, I think pretty much everybody is on the same page here. Seems like a pretty major failure of the Secret Service and security, though. I’m praying that nothing like that ever happens again to anyone.
We’ll get much more into baseball stuff in the next few days. I am pressed for time again here with family staying with me and having to get to church early to help out with tech stuff.
I could use the All-Star Break to not do anything and just take it off. Last year, I wrote a bunch of stuff to set up for the second half, and I’m guessing that’s what I’ll do this year. I’m thinking maybe even going team by team in podcast form, we’ll see.
Pitcher Review
Dylan Cease is a stud. 27 whiffs!
Luis Gil put together another solid one with 6 innings fo one-run ball. The Ball% was crazy high again (40%) but it only turned into one walk.
Gavin Williams has not had the whiff pitch going. He had just six on 94 pitches yesterday, surviving five pretty clean innings (three hits, one earned runs). A couple more outings without some whiffs and we’ll have to talk about ditching him.
Christian Scott failed in the easiest matchup against the Rockies. Just an 8.5% SwStr% and 45.1% Strike%, alsting only 4.1 innings against the Road Rockies. Not good!
Luis L. Ortiz never shows up on the “Yesterdays SP” sheet, I should fix that. He went for a bad 9.6% SwStr% but a good 51% Strike% against the White Sox. He threw a ton of strikes (32% Ball%), so that’s a good sign. He also put up a 63% GB%, another good sign. And that all turned into a .188 xwOBA - totally elite (but also probably lucky). The fastball velo ticked down to 95.5. Overall I’d call it a disappointing outing in terms of Ortiz’s second-half breakout chances. He should stick in the rotation at least until Jared Jones and/or Bailey Falter returns, and even then, he has a chance to stick over someone like Martin Perez. He’s definitely a person of interest for the second half.
Grayson Rodriguez gave up eight hits and generated a 14.3% SwStr%. He’s been fine all year, but just continues to fail to be the dominant arm we thought he would be.
Reynaldo Lopez had a really terrible outing (seven whiffs on 93 pitches, 11 hits allowed, two strikeouts), but still survived for a qual-banger. You know my take on him, I’m looking to sell him for the second half.
Hitter Review
Only a few minutes left, but I have to bring up Rece Hinds again. I don’t think you could have asked for a much easier schedule to start your big league career, facing the Rockies and Marlins at home. But he has taken full advantage.
He is hitting .500/.542/1.409 in 24 PAs. The K% is 29%, the BB% is 4%, and he’s hit five homers on a 40% Brl%. He’s tied for eighth on the Reds in homers. The contact rate is 68%, the xwOBA is .632, the FB% is 53%. So we see the signs of the strikeout already, even against a slew of really bad pitchers, but he just hasn’t missed a chance to hit a hard fly ball yet.
If you’re doing FAAB for him, I would just pass. Someone in your league is going to go way too high for him, and I imagine that in 30 days we’re looking back on Hinds as someone who just had a very, very lucky first week. Here’s the data on all of his balls in play:
Just remember that this guy had a 38% K% in AAA. If you think he’s going to turn that into even 30% at the Major League level and hit homers at a similar rate… you are … overly optimistic.
So that will do it, much more to come in the next few days.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease
2. Kutter Crawford
3. Lance Lynn
4. Jose Soriano
5. Spencer Arrighetti
6. Nathan Eovaldi
7. Edward Cabrera
8. Grayson Rodriguez
9. Simeon Woods Richardson
10. Luis L. Ortiz
11. Luis Gil
12. George Kirby
13. Ryan Feltner
14. Tyler Phillips
15. Zack Littell
16. Mitch Spence
17. Hayden Wesneski
18. Andrew Abbott
19. Seth Lugo
20. Reynaldo Lopez
21. Christian Scott
22. Keider Montero
23. Chris Flexen
24. Dallas Keuchel
25. Gavin Williams
26. Kyle Gibson
27. Hayden Birdsong
28. Justin Wrobleski
29. Yilber Diaz
30. Jose Berrios
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (vs. ATL): 37.1 Points
2. Kutter Crawford (vs. KC): 25.95 Points
3. Luis Gil (vs. BAL): 25.9 Points
4. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. HOU): 22.95 Points
5. George Kirby (vs. LAA): 22.5 Points
6. Spencer Arrighetti (vs. TEX): 22.5 Points
7. Lance Lynn (vs. CHC): 21.3 Points
8. Jose Soriano (vs. SEA): 20.1 Points
9. Jose Butto (vs. COL): 18.81 Points
10. Luis Ortiz - 682847 (vs. CWS): 17.76 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (SD): 27 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Lance Lynn (STL): 18 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. Jose Soriano (LAA): 16 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
5. Luis Gil (NYY): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Mitch Spence (OAK): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
9. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Ryan Feltner (COL): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 58.3 Strike%, 20.8 Ball%
2. Dylan Cease (SD): 57.5 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
3. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 55.8 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
4. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 52.7 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
5. Lance Lynn (STL): 52.5 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
6. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 52.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
7. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 51.1 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
8. Jose Soriano (LAA): 50.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
9. Ryan Feltner (COL): 50.6 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
10. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 49.5 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
11. George Kirby (SEA): 48.9 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
12. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 47.1 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
13. Christian Scott (NYM): 45.1 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
14. Gavin Williams (CLE): 44.7 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
15. Hayden Wesneski (CHC): 44.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Flexen: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
2. Tyler Phillips: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
3. Nathan Eovaldi: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
4. Kutter Crawford: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
5. Spencer Arrighetti: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
6. Zack Littell: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Jose Soriano: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
8. George Kirby: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
9. Yilber Diaz: 87 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.12 POUT
10. Reynaldo Lopez: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's FF velo (51 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 98.2
Gavin Williams's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 79.2
Grayson Rodriguez's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.5
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.9
George Kirby's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.2
Luis Gil's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.2
Jose Berrios's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.7
Andrew Abbott's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.1
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 84.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Dallas Keuchel's SI usage (60.0%) up 14.1 points
George Kirby's FS usage (19.6%) up 11.7 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (54.0%) up 16.6 points
Lance Lynn's FF usage (71.7%) up 24.8 points
Luis Gil's SL usage (38.9%) up 19.5 points
Luis L. Ortiz's FF usage (37.2%) up 10.8 points
Luis L. Ortiz's FC usage (21.3%) up 11.9 points
Nathan Eovaldi's FC usage (29.5%) up 13.1 points
Seth Lugo's CH usage (17.2%) up 10.2 points
Spencer Arrighetti's CH usage (18.8%) up 11.3 points
Zack Littell's SL usage (50.6%) up 16.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +22.0%
Luis Severino Sinker: +20.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -18.4%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -15.6%
Luis Gil Slider: +15.3%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.7%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +14.6%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +14.4%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.1%
Albert Suarez Cutter: -14.1%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +13.6%
Spencer Arrighetti Cutter: -13.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +13.4%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.5%
Spencer Schwellenbach Sinker: +12.2%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 70 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 67 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Nestor Cortes - 92 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 40.8% K%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 36.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 36.3% K%
Pablo Lopez - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Paul Skenes - 101 TBF, 35.6% K%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Nick Pivetta - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Taj Bradley - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 94 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 101 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 86 TBF, 27.9% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 105 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 97 TBF, 58.3% GB%
David Peterson - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 88 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Ben Lively - 72 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Max Fried - 104 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 32.0 K%, 2.0 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 55.8% GB%
George Kirby - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Huascar Brazoban - 49 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Justin Martinez - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.9 BB%, 67.6% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 101 TBF, 35.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Seth Lugo - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 36.5 K%, 3.1 BB%, 54.4% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 10.57 ERA, 3.7 SIERA
Kenta Maeda: 10.12 ERA, 4.85 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.38 ERA, 2.58 SIERA
Jon Gray: 9.0 ERA, 5.5 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 6.84 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 5.62 ERA, 2.9 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 7.22 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.94 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Mitch Spence: 6.47 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
DJ Herz: 4.7 ERA, 2.57 SIERA
Luckiest
Jose Quintana: 0.89 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Erik Miller: 2.19 ERA, 4.92 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 1.2 ERA, 3.6 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.08 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.23 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
David Peterson: 2.33 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 2.39 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.02 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 4.43 ERA, 6.42 SIERA
Erick Fedde: 2.7 ERA, 4.36 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +2.7% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Aaron Nola - +2.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.2% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Kyle Freeland - +2.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +7.4% CSW%, -8.3 BB%
Ben Lively - +3.5% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.8% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +4.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +10.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +2.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Tim Hill - +3.7% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Huascar Brazoban - +3.9% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brent Rooker (OAK) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Carson Kelly (DET) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Rece Hinds (CIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Yainer Diaz, Yesterday: 111.4 Previous High: 111.3
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