MLB Daily Notes - July 16th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Good day for the strikeout and walk props. +3.4 units on K props and +.9 on BB props, see the trackers below and get the recommended bets every day in the betting Google sheet if you’re a paid sub. There’s even a new tab called “Recommended Bets” that shows only the K and BB props above that 0.1 value threshold.
Here’s what that looks like today - free picks!
Links to the trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
Johan Oviedo had one of those random spike games. He got 18 whiffs on 107 pitches (16.8% SwStr%, 57.9% Strike%). The guy does have a good slider and a fastball with a lot of velocity and movement, so I think he could be something down the line - but it’s been more bad than good this year for him. Not great command (9% BB%, 36.6% Ball%), and an underwhelming 12.3% SwStr% for the year.
Michael Lorenzen, THE ALL STAR, also put together a nice score, but he was way down at just an 11.3% SwStr%.
The most interesting man of the day was Alec Marsh who racked up 11 strikeouts on a 17.4% SwStr% and a 53.3% Strike%. He had a high K% in the minors and all of the sudden has a 32% K% in the Majors. The rest of the season numbers:
278 pitches
31.8% K%
12.1% BB%
19.7% K-BB%
14.0% SwStr%
50.0% Strike%
37.1% Ball%
.357 xwOBA allowed
14% Brl%
22% GB%
So a lot of whiffs and strikeouts, but clearly a pretty erratic guy as well with the high walk rate, and you know I hate to see a low GB%. He’ll probably have some dumpy starts in the future, but he showed us yesterday that he’s capable of some big ones as well. The full arsenal:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Johan Oviedo (vs. SF): 31.35 Points
2. Michael Lorenzen (vs. SEA): 28.81 Points
3. Alec Marsh (vs. TB): 27.9 Points
4. Freddy Peralta (vs. CIN): 27.7 Points
5. Clarke Schmidt (vs. COL): 27.1 Points
6. Kodai Senga (vs. LAD): 25.9 Points
7. Framber Valdez (vs. LAA): 24.84 Points
8. Tyler Glasnow (vs. KC): 24.7 Points
9. Blake Snell (vs. PHI): 21.65 Points
10. Andrew Heaney (vs. CLE): 19.79 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 26 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Framber Valdez (HOU): 23 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 18 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
4. Blake Snell (SD): 17 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
5. Alec Marsh (KC): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Lance Lynn (CWS): 16 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 15 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
9. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 14 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
10. Kodai Senga (NYM): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 62.1 Strike%, 25.2 Ball%
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 58.8 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
3. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 57.9 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
4. Alec Marsh (KC): 53.3 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
5. Blake Snell (SD): 51.2 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
6. Freddy Tarnok (OAK): 50.8 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
7. Cole Ragans (KC): 50.6 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
8. Jake Irvin (WSH): 50.6 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
9. Kodai Senga (NYM): 50.5 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
10. Steven Matz (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
11. Michael Lorenzen (DET): 49.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
12. James Paxton (BOS): 49.2 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
13. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 48.4 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
14. Zac Gallen (ARI): 47.9 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
15. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 47.8 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 79.7
Ryan Weathers's ST velo (17 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 82.5
Andrew Heaney's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.0
Cooper Criswell's ST velo (21 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 78.4
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.0
Gavin Williams's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.3
Zac Gallen's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.8
Cole Ragans's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.8
Blake Snell's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.1
Clarke Schmidt's SI velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.6
Johan Oviedo's SL velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.0
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (45 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.1
Reid Detmers's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 73.9
Reid Detmers's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.6
Framber Valdez's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 81.7
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -3.3mph to 80.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's FF usage (56.5%) up 15.6 points
Andrew Abbott's ST usage (30.0%) up 15.7 points
Blake Snell's CU usage (29.3%) up 12.6 points
Clarke Schmidt's ST usage (41.3%) up 11.8 points
Connor Seabold's SL usage (41.0%) up 10.3 points
Cooper Criswell's FC usage (31.5%) up 13.4 points
Dakota Hudson's FF usage (24.0%) up 16.2 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (26.2%) up 15.5 points
Hogan Harris's FF usage (61.2%) up 15.1 points
Jake Irvin's SI usage (50.6%) up 22.6 points
Ranger Suarez's SI usage (43.3%) up 15.3 points
Taijuan Walker's FC usage (28.1%) up 13.5 points
Tony Gonsolin's FF usage (50.0%) up 12.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Jon Gray Slider: +15.0%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Brandon Bielak Slider: -14.0%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +13.8%
Patrick Corbin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Joe Ryan Sweeper: +13.4%
Bryan Woo Slider: -13.3%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.1%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -13.0%
Blake Snell Curveball: +12.6%
Matthew Liberatore 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.5%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -12.4%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -12.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Interesting to see Cristopher Sanchez near the top of the GB% board. I’ve heard some talk about him but haven’t said anything myself, so let’s take a look at his numbers:
11.3% SwStr%
48.0% Strike%
32.9% Ball%
22.9% K%
4.2% BB%
18.6% K-BB%
55% GB%
.302 xwOBA
Decent stuff. Low walks, high GB - that’ll work. You can take a closer look in deep leagues.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 76 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 73 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 68 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 40.9% K%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 38.8% K%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 38.8% K%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 69 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 65 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 103 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Luis Medina - 74 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 74 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 72 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Eury Perez - 53 TBF, 30.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 36.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Jose Berrios - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 31.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 93 TBF, 40.9 K%, 5.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Zach Eflin - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 2.7 BB%, 54.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Spencer Strider - +3.4% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +2.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.7% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Kodai Senga - +2.9% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Zach Eflin - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Joe Musgrove - +3.3% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Domingo German - +5.0% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +4.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Hitters
Kerry Carpenter - my guy! Now up to an .855 OPS with a 13.7% Brl% and a 25% K%. Other guys with similar Brl% and K%:
Randy Arozarena
Spencer Torkelson
Willy Adames
Triston Casas
Ryan Mountcastle
Francisco Alvarez
Jesus Sanchez
Giancarlo Stanton
I think he should be rostered everywhere, and I really do think the Tigers have at least a league-average lineup right now.
Multiple Barrels
C.J. Cron (COL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 10 PA, 19 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Manny Machado (SD) 9 PA, 18 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 10 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Randy Arozarena (TB) - 113.6mph - single
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 113.1mph - double
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 112.3mph - nan
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 112.2mph - single
Triston Casas (BOS) - 112.1mph - home_run
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.9mph - field_out
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 111.8mph - nan
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 111.8mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.2mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.1mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Josh Bell - 76 PA, 0.303 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Byron Buxton - 74 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 67 PA, 0.276 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 69 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Jake Burger - 71 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Luis Garcia - 69 PA, 0.274 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 69 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 65 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.047 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 71 PA, 0.505 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, -0.186 Diff
Jarren Duran - 60 PA, 0.456 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.145 Diff
Luke Raley - 60 PA, 0.388 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, -0.127 Diff
Brandon Marsh - 58 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 63 PA, 0.499 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 83 PA, 0.396 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Alek Thomas - 58 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.244 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Josh Naylor - 70 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Lane Thomas - 85 PA, 0.391 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Mike Ford - 60 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 42 PA, 15 BIP, 4 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Corey Seager - 73 PA, 52 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Max Muncy - 58 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 64 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 45 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Seth Brown - 41 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Luis Robert - 70 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 69 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
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