MLB Daily Notes - July 17th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
If you’re into the prop betting, read the below. If you’re not, you can just skip over this first part.
Over the break, I developed new trackers to track the K and BB prop bets that the algorithm recommends. Those are free for everybody to use, however - there is a problem.
Throughout the day, the recommended bets will change as the lines move and the projections change as lineups are announced. Right now, the tracker is being overwritten every time. So like yesterday, at the beginning of the day, Josiah Gray over 2.5 walks was a recommended bet, but by the last time the sheet updated - he had fallen off.
So, probably people took that bet in the morning and it lost, but if you look at the tracker - that bet isn’t there. That obviously makes it looks like I’m cheating and just not showing all the losers - but that’s not the case. It’s just getting rid of the bets that fall out of the “recommended” criteria. It’s not a good situation, the ideal situation would be to lock in a bet after it’s recommended and not take it off just because it falls out of favor, betting doesn’t work like that - you can’t just take back your bets - so I’m going to try to figure out some way to make this all work together.
One note is that this could just as easily take off a winning bet as a losing one, so it’s not like it’s biased toward making me look better.
But the moral of the story is that
The tracker isn’t working perfectly
You have no reason to trust that I’m telling you the whole truth, or even any reason to trust that I’m trying to tell you the whole truth
I am basically at the point in life where I don’t trust anybody about anything except for my wife and Producer Lee. So if I were you, I wouldn’t trust me. That’s especially true because my incentive structure pushes me toward lying. If I could hide the losing bets, that’s in my financial interest to do so. The good news is that
I don’t really need any more money than I already have made here, I can’t believe how well this blog has turned out. I just did this for fun and for some beer money, but now I’m paying my mortgage with it. I’m doing my best to not be greedy and just be perfectly content with where we’re at now.
I believe strongly in God and the Bible - which gives me a pretty big incentive to not lie and cheat and steal.
In summary, don’t trust me, track your own results, and don’t bet much money on anything I tell you here.
Links to the trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
There were a lot of interesting performances yesterday.
Kyle Bradish went for an 8:1 K:BB and a big 34-point performance despite a pretty meek 9% SwStr% (9 whiffs on 100 pitches). He’s up to a 16.9% K-BB% on the year, but it’s at 21.9% in his last eight starts. That’s an arbitrary cut-off point of course, and the low SwStr% there wasn’t encouraging. I think it’ll be an up-and-down second half for Bradish, but he’s certainly earned a spot on a fantasy team in all leagues.
Kutter Crawford was also great with a 19.1% SwStr% and a 53.9% Strike%. He’s a guy I’ve liked for awhile, although the fantasy results really hadn’t come before yesterday. Here’s his pitch mix data since 6/1 (we shouldn’t look at the earlier parts of the season with him because he was in a bullpen role):
So the four-seamer has worked really, really well - and the sweeper is awesome as well when used. It’s a little weird that he doesn’t throw the slider/sweeper very often, and he was 70% FF+FC yesterday again. There’s real upside here if he can elevate that breaking ball usage along with this great fastball duo, but if he’s going to stay 70% fastball there’s going to be some less than desirable starts. He’s someone to add in deep leagues and monitor for more shallow leagues.
And unfortunately, some other stuff came up, so I’m out of time and can’t get into any more stuff. Check out the rest of the notes below, and we’ll be back this afternoon with game previews!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Bradish (vs. MIA): 34.09 Points
2. Kutter Crawford (vs. CHC): 32.5 Points
3. Gerrit Cole (vs. COL): 31.7 Points
4. Max Scherzer (vs. LAD): 25.35 Points
5. Jack Flaherty (vs. WSH): 21.9 Points
6. Dylan Cease (vs. ATL): 21.65 Points
7. Zack Wheeler (vs. SD): 20.75 Points
8. JP Sears (vs. MIN): 19.84 Points
9. Tanner Bibee (vs. TEX): 17.9 Points
10. Brady Singer (vs. TB): 17.8 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 21 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Dylan Cease (CWS): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
3. JP Sears (OAK): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 17 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
5. Justin Steele (CHC): 17 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
6. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Reese Olson (DET): 15 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
8. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
9. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Tommy Henry (ARI): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 54.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
2. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 54.0 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
3. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 53.9 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
4. Cody Bradford (TEX): 53.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Jack Flaherty (STL): 52.2 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
6. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 51.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
7. Reese Olson (DET): 50.7 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
8. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 50.6 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
9. Cristian Javier (HOU): 49.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
10. Dylan Cease (CWS): 48.5 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
11. Osvaldo Bido (PIT): 48.4 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
12. Tommy Henry (ARI): 48.1 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
13. Justin Steele (CHC): 47.6 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
14. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 47.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
15. JP Sears (OAK): 46.7 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Johnny Cueto's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 86.8
Seth Lugo's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 87.7
Johnny Cueto's FF velo (23 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 93.0
Dylan Cease's SL velo (40 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.1
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 77.3
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (34 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.0
Dylan Cease's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 81.6
Bobby Miller's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 79.7
Kutter Crawford's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.8
Adrian Houser's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.6
Bobby Miller's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 88.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bobby Miller's FF usage (41.6%) up 26.0 points
Bryce Miller's SL usage (38.6%) up 20.0 points
Cody Bradford's FF usage (66.7%) up 12.8 points
Johnny Cueto's FF usage (46.0%) up 19.3 points
Johnny Cueto's SL usage (26.0%) up 16.0 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (23.2%) up 11.8 points
Martin Perez's SI usage (57.0%) up 18.5 points
Yonny Chirinos's FS usage (42.0%) up 23.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -26.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.7%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Jon Gray Slider: +15.0%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +14.3%
Brandon Bielak Slider: -14.0%
Patrick Corbin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Yusei Kikuchi 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Bryan Woo Slider: -13.3%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.1%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -13.0%
Blake Snell Curveball: +12.6%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.5%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -12.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 68 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 38.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 38.8% K%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Joe Ryan - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Charlie Morton - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 103 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 74 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Sonny Gray - 77 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Brady Singer - 109 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 103 TBF, 53.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 52.8% GB%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 36.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Jose Berrios - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 31.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Hendricks - +2.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Kodai Senga - +2.9% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Joe Musgrove - +3.3% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Domingo German - +5.0% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +4.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Trevor Richards - +6.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Drew Waters (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Drew Waters, Yesterday: 112.2 Previous High: 110.6
Gabriel Arias, Yesterday: 114.4 Previous High: 110.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 116.4mph - nan
Gabriel Arias (CLE) - 114.4mph - field_out
Jake Burger (CWS) - 113.5mph - home_run
Drew Waters (KC) - 112.2mph - home_run
C.J. Cron (COL) - 111.7mph - home_run
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 111.1mph - single
Jordan Walker (STL) - 110.7mph - double
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 110.6mph - double
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 110.6mph - home_run
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 110.5mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Byron Buxton - 74 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Josh Bell - 72 PA, 0.308 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Luis Garcia - 69 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Joc Pederson - 61 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 72 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 74 PA, 0.274 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Javier Baez - 76 PA, 0.169 wOBA, 0.218 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Elias Diaz - 58 PA, 0.236 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Max Muncy - 62 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, 0.044 Diff
Ryan O'Hearn - 60 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.041 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 72 PA, 0.498 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.175 Diff
Luke Raley - 64 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.254 xwOBA, -0.141 Diff
Brandon Marsh - 63 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.126 Diff
Lane Thomas - 85 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 87 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
J.P. Crawford - 82 PA, 0.438 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Mike Ford - 61 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 58 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Christopher Morel - 76 PA, 0.349 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Chas McCormick - 62 PA, 0.474 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 40 PA, 14 BIP, 4 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 40 PA, 24 BIP, 6 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 62 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 72 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Adolis Garcia - 77 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 62 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Corey Seager - 72 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 69 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Francisco Alvarez - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Mookie Betts - 69 PA, 0.538 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 64 PA, 0.511 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 64 PA, 0.476 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 67 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 70 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 72 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 40 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 73 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Adolis Garcia - 77 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
C.J. Cron - 50 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Alex Bregman - 74 PA, 106 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 67 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 48 PA, 69 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 67 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 71 PA, 125 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 56 PA, 101 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 62 PA, 115 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 63 PA, 103 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 58 PA, 95 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 69 PA, 92 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Willi Castro - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Alex Call - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
TJ Friedl - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Willi Castro - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Trea Turner - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.