MLB Daily Notes - July 18th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet update - took just two bets at the end of the day. Hit Smyly under 1.5 BB (+135) and lost Matt Manning over 1.5 walks, so that was a very slight profit.
Since I’ve begun tracking, BB props are +15 units on 48 bets and K props are +12 on 218 bets, but please refer to yesterday’s daily notes about a disclaimer about all of that.
Prop bet trackers:
I’m well behind on the reader questions, so I will try to get a standalone post out today or tomorrow answering those and going into some other things that are interesting to me. Now would be a good time to submit some stuff if you want anything analyzed or answered - click the button at the top.
Pitchers - Yesterday
My guy Griffin Canning had another interesting start last night. He had 12 strikeouts and 20 whiffs on 120 pitches(!). That’s a 16.7% SwStr% with a 59.2% Strike%. And yet, he couldn’t complete the sixth inning, giving up five hits, two runs, and three walks. It’s pretty wild to throw 120 pitches and only get 17 outs, but man those whiffs are appealing.
Season stats:
A 14% SwStr% and a 49% Strike% - that is such a good combination. And the Ball% at 34% is actually better than league average, which makes you think that walks shouldn’t be a huge problem for him. He’s given up a 9.4% Brl% and a .312 xwOBA - neither of which are concerning. I can’t see how this guy doesn’t have a pretty solid second half as long as he’s on the mound - and he’ll be a target for 2024 if he stays healthy for sure.
And then Nick Pivetta showed up back in the rotation (although he didn’t start the game, he pitched innings 3-8) and ripped off 42 fantasy points. He struck out 13 Athletics, didn’t give up a single hit, and walked a pair. 20.7% SwStr%, 60.9% Strike%, 33.3% Ball%, 65% K%. An elite outing for him. But it’s not like we’re going to start thinking Pivetta is a fantasy start because of one amazing outing against the A’s after all of the ups and downs we have seen from him over the years - but I couldn’t ignore the man here!
Emmet Sheehan was bad with a 2:3 K:BB on 94 pitches. He earned just four whiffs (4.3% SwStr%) and had a horrible 38% Strike%. He’s not been good this year with a 17% K% and a 10.5% BB%, and the 9.8% SwStr% doesn’t make us feel very good about that stuff changing in the short term.
Maybe for next year, but for now we can leave Sheehan alone in fantasy.
More:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (vs. OAK): 42.3 Points
2. Griffin Canning (vs. NYY): 27.36 Points
3. Shane McClanahan (vs. TEX): 19.7 Points
4. Jordan Lyles (vs. DET): 19.1 Points
5. Logan Gilbert (vs. MIN): 16.45 Points
6. Matt Manning (vs. KC): 16.36 Points
7. Dane Dunning (vs. TB): 16.15 Points
8. MacKenzie Gore (vs. CHC): 15.44 Points
9. Miles Mikolas (vs. MIA): 13.3 Points
10. Aroldis Chapman (vs. TB): 12.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Griffin Canning (LAA): 20 Whiffs (120 Pitches)
2. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 18 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
3. Sonny Gray (MIN): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
4. Drew Smyly (CHC): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYY): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Jordan Lyles (KC): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
7. Shane McClanahan (TB): 12 Whiffs (69 Pitches)
8. Dane Dunning (TEX): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 10 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 9 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 60.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
2. Griffin Canning (LAA): 59.2 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
3. Shane McClanahan (TB): 55.1 Strike%, 24.6 Ball%
4. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
5. Drew Smyly (CHC): 48.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
6. Matt Manning (DET): 48.1 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 47.9 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
8. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.8 Strike%, 28.3 Ball%
9. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 47.3 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
10. Jordan Lyles (KC): 47.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
11. Luis Severino (NYY): 43.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
12. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 43.3 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
13. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 40.2 Strike%, 43.5 Ball%
14. Sonny Gray (MIN): 38.6 Strike%, 45.5 Ball%
15. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 38.3 Strike%, 42.6 Ball%
Pitchers & Pitch Trends
Luis Severino tried something different yesterday. He threw 17 cutters and they came in at an average of 90.9 mph. He had used the cutter double-digit times just twice before, and the velo had been around 88-89 previously. But did it work?
98 pitches, 13.3% SwStr%, 43.9% Strike%, 36.7% Ball%, 3:2 K:BB
Nope, it didn’t! The SwStr% was up a bit from what we’ve seen, but not many strikes earned against a pretty beatable Angels’ lineup.
Jesus Luzardo had his worst start in a while with just a 6.5% SwStr% and two strikeouts on 92 pitches. He was a sell for me in my buys & sells series, so I’m obviously 100% completely justified on that pick and you should all sing my praises!
One thing I didn’t catch yesterday was the Bobby Miller pitch mix change. He has said sayonara to the sinker in favor of four-seamers and curveballs.
That has turned into two pretty good SwStr% in his last two starts (13.9% and 14.3%, and he has a pretty good 16:3 K:BB in the last three. However, he was pulled with just 77 pitches thrown last time, so there are those concerns as well. I still really like this guy given the arsenal he has, but clearly there is some work to do before he’s a reliable fantasy starter, but I would probably still be picking him above most of the other fringey/rookie SPs.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luis Severino's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 90.9
Jordan Lyles's CU velo (21 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 81.5
Shane McClanahan's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Drew Smyly's FC usage (22.2%) up 12.2 points
Emmet Sheehan's CH usage (24.5%) up 12.6 points
Grayson Rodriguez's CH usage (33.0%) up 12.0 points
Luis Severino's SL usage (26.5%) up 12.1 points
Sonny Gray's ST usage (36.6%) up 19.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -26.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.7%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Jon Gray Slider: +15.0%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +14.3%
Brandon Bielak Slider: -14.0%
Patrick Corbin 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Yusei Kikuchi 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Bryan Woo Slider: -13.3%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.1%
Sonny Gray Sweeper: +13.1%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -13.0%
Blake Snell Curveball: +12.6%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.5%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -12.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Turns out Pivetta has been shoving for longer than just one day, he has a 49% K% over his last 69 batters faced.
Clarke Schmidt also might be worth another shake. I know I’ve already struck out twice on him this year, hyping him up in late draft season and then recommending everybody add him again in May or something. But for the year he has a better-than-bad (that’s a new one) 17% K-BB% and a pretty good 48.6% Strike%. He’s a desperate option if you need someone, he gets the Royals later this week.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 68 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 75 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 49.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0% K%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 38.9% K%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 38.8% K%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 36.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Joe Ryan - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Dean Kremer - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Pivetta - 69 TBF, 39.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Domingo German - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Charlie Morton - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 103 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 74 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Brady Singer - 109 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 103 TBF, 53.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 76 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 52.8% GB%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Kodai Senga - 74 TBF, 37.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 31.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0 K%, 2.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Hendricks - +2.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Kodai Senga - +2.9% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Joe Musgrove - +3.3% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Domingo German - +5.0% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +4.6% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Trevor Richards - +6.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Hitters
Bryan De La Cruz is a weirdo. You just can’t ever know what he’ll do. He’s been above a 14% Brl% this year and below a 3% several times, it’s been a wild ride.
And then Shohei Ohtani has been barreling the ball so freaking much that his rolling plot makes a 19% Brl% look bad.
And I said a week ago or so that I had a HUNCH (#HunchAlert) that Willy Adames was about to blast off. It’s looking like a good call right now, but I take no credit for that because hunches aren’t real. He’s been bringing the K% way down while the Brl% has been coming up.
Multiple Barrels
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Gleyber Torres, Yesterday: 112.4 Previous High: 111.7
Hardest Hit Balls
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 112.6mph - foul
Ian Happ (CHC) - 112.6mph - home_run
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 112.4mph - single
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.7mph - double
Ryan Noda (OAK) - 110.3mph - foul
Jordan Walker (STL) - 110.1mph - single
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) - 109.4mph - field_out
Lars Nootbaar (STL) - 109.3mph - single
Stone Garrett (WSH) - 109.2mph - double
Joey Gallo (MIN) - 109.2mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Byron Buxton - 75 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.319 xwOBA, 0.117 Diff
Joc Pederson - 61 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Josh Bell - 73 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 68 PA, 0.302 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 71 PA, 0.299 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Luis Garcia - 69 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Javier Baez - 76 PA, 0.169 wOBA, 0.218 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Gary Sanchez - 66 PA, 0.245 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.045 Diff
Anthony Rizzo - 78 PA, 0.245 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.043 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 76 PA, 0.495 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, -0.167 Diff
Luke Raley - 63 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 68 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Brandon Marsh - 61 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 82 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Mike Ford - 60 PA, 0.471 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Chas McCormick - 62 PA, 0.474 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 68 PA, 0.488 wOBA, 0.397 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Yandy Diaz - 61 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Trent Grisham - 74 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.