MLB Daily Notes - July 21st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Brayan Bello took the SwStr% crown with 17 whiffs on 82 pitches (20.7% SwStr%) against the Dodgers!
That was an unexpected good start. He did give up three runs in six innings, but gave up only five hits and one walk. He upped the slider usage for this matchup and threw only 30 fastballs.
This four-seamer has only recently appeared:
AIt looks like only the third time he’d led his arsenal with the slider. For the year, that pitch has a 49% Strike%, a 15.1% SwStr%, and a .347 xwOBA. So it’s ag good pitch but nothing that blows you away. It’s interesting to see the changeup being used less and less, that was supposed to be his best pitch. So we know that Bello is capable of some good outings, but I’m still not investing much in him for fantasy purposes.
Grayson Rodriguez did some of his best work:
6 IP, 3 H, 2 Er, 8 K, 2 BB, 17.5% SwStr%
Huge day with the four-seamer. 13 whiffs on that pitch alone and a huge 71% Strike%. It’s hard not to have a good start with those kinds of marks on your fastball. The changeup and curveball were fine, but the fastball took care of the Rangers.
The Rangers matchup is just not a very tough one this year, by the way. They have a team of .688 OPS this year, which is the 10th-worst in the league. You can stream pitchers against the Rangers.
We have to talk about the Luis L. Ortiz start. He did the best work of his career in the box score:
7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 K, 2 BB
Seven shutout innings and five base-runners against the Phillies. Great work. EXCEPT:
8 whiffs, 9% SwStr%, 42.7% Strike%, 33.7% Ball%
He threw a bunch of balls in the strike zone (60%), he gave up no barrels and just a .234 xwOBA. So, he was a bit lucky (.143 BABIP), but not overly so. There are two ways I talk about a pitcher being “lucky”. A low BABIP is a sign of good luck, you will not sustain a BABIP below .250 for long as an example.
The other one is the quality of contact allowed. Some pitchers generate more soft contact than others, that is true, but it’s also not possible to allow soft contact to a crazy extent for very long. The league average xwOBA on contact is something around .370. The league leaders should be expected to be around .325. So any time you see someone going a few starts allowing a number in the 2’s here, you know there’s some regression likely to hit.
For the year, Ortiz is at .334 on contact. That’s low, but it’s a low number we could believe in because he has gotten a lot of ground balls and has good stuff with multiple fastballs and seemingly good command of them. But yesterday was near .200, and that’s not something that can happen very often.
The biggest point here is that when you’re only getting two strikeouts in seven innings, you are allowing a ton of balls in play. So if you combine the low-strikeouts with a not-great xwOBACON, you’re in trouble.
The Phillies are a tough matchup, and he got it done there, no doubt. I would just say that if we’re focused on predicting what he’ll do in the future for fantasy purposes, this was not a resoundingly positive sign.
The most important indicator, of course, is K-BB%, and Ortiz is at just 13.4% there, but a better mark of 17% since June. I think he can be a very useful Major League starter, but I’m not recommending him for 10 or 12 team fantasy leagues right now.
I think we can probably give up on Gavin Williams now. That’s four starts without a single positive result in sight. He struck out five yesterday, but had just a 45.2% Strike% and 9.5% SwStr% and was booted in the fourth inning. For the year, it’s a 9.4% SwStr% and 45.7% Strike%. There’s just not enough time left in the season to wait, and it’s not like he was awesome last year either - we don’t know for sure he’s good, so it’s possible we’ll be waiting for something that will never happen.
Zac Gallen walked six!
5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 K, 6 BB
That’s weird! That’s the most of his career. He has the worst BB% of his career at 8% this year, and the K% is at its worst mark in some time as well at 23.6%. Not good for Gallen. Maybe I was wrong to say just wait it out and he’ll return to ace form. It doesn’t look very great for the guy right now. He has a 3.88 SIERA and a 3.61 xFIP, so those aren’t bad numbers, but they are not top-20 SP marks.
Speeding things up here as it’s Sunday, and I don’t have all the time in the world.
Taj Bradley went seven innings, giving up no runs on one hit to the Yankees. He struck out five and walked two. It was a little bit of what we talked about above with Ortiz. He only had eight whiffs, so he had a good day on contact (.063 BABIP, .252 xwOBACON yesterday), but the 21% K-BB% on the season makes him a clear must-start.
Nestor Cortes got smacked around on the other side of that matchup. He gave up six runs on eight hits to the Rays. He has a pretty strong 18% K-BB% on the year with a middling 48% Strike% and 12% SwStr%. He’s more good than bad, but not near ace level for fantasy.
Pablo Lopez also had a good result (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 7 K), without the most whiffs (11), but overall, it was a good start to his second half.
Bad stuff from Max Scherzer. He threw 53 pitches, got seven whiffs, and a very low 45.3% Strike% with bad command (35.8% Ball%). That got him lifted after two innings, but it was against the tough Orioles lineup.
Yusei Kikuchi was one of the better pitchers of the day on strikes (53.2% Strike%, 16.0% SwStr%), but gave up four runs on five hits. He walked two, which never helps. The good box score results have not come often lately, but he still sits here this season with a 20.5% K-BB%. I’m holding on.
We’ll get into some hitter stuff tomorrow. Maybe we’ll even get another podcast recorded going over some of the weekend developments! Peace out, have a good Sunday!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta
2. Brayan Bello
3. Justin Wrobleski
4. Grayson Rodriguez
5. Sonny Gray
6. Bryce Elder
7. Yusei Kikuchi
8. George Kirby
9. Dylan Cease
10. Luis Severino
11. Roddery Munoz
12. Nick Lodolo
13. Jonathan Cannon
14. Framber Valdez
15. Charlie Morton
16. Brady Singer
17. Max Scherzer
18. Kyle Gibson
19. Luis L. Ortiz
20. Pablo Lopez
21. MacKenzie Gore
22. Cristopher Sanchez
23. Taj Bradley
24. Kyle Freeland
25. Zac Gallen
26. Logan Webb
27. Gavin Williams
28. Jack Kochanowicz
29. Mitch Spence
30. Kyle Hendricks
31. Nestor Cortes
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (vs. CLE): 38.55 Points
2. Brady Singer (vs. CWS): 29.55 Points
3. Luis Severino (vs. MIA): 28.5 Points
4. Taj Bradley (vs. NYY): 27.95 Points
5. Freddy Peralta (vs. MIN): 27.1 Points
6. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. TEX): 26.5 Points
7. Sonny Gray (vs. ATL): 24.95 Points
8. Pablo Lopez (vs. MIL): 24.75 Points
9. Kyle Gibson (vs. ATL): 22.01 Points
10. George Kirby (vs. HOU): 21.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 18 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 18 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Brayan Bello (BOS): 17 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
4. Bryce Elder (ATL): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Justin Wrobleski (LAD): 15 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
6. George Kirby (SEA): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Sonny Gray (STL): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
9. Framber Valdez (HOU): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
10. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 13 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 55.3 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
2. Bryce Elder (ATL): 53.7 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 53.6 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
4. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 53.2 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
5. Justin Wrobleski (LAD): 53.0 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
6. Sonny Gray (STL): 51.7 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
7. George Kirby (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Brayan Bello (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 30.5 Ball%
9. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 50.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 50.0 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
11. Kyle Gibson (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
12. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 49.5 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
13. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 49.0 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
14. Brady Singer (KC): 48.4 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
15. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 48.4 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
2. Luis L. Ortiz: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
3. Brady Singer: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
4. Brayan Bello: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
5. Dylan Cease: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
6. Taj Bradley: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
7. Roddery Munoz: 74 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.93 POUT
8. Kyle Freeland: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Kyle Gibson: 100 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Luis Severino: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 87.9
Gavin Williams's CU velo (24 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 79.9
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (31 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 92.0
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 84.0
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 86.8
Dylan Cease's FF velo (51 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 98.2
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (26 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.7
George Kirby's FS velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.9
Grayson Rodriguez's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.4
Brayan Bello's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.3
Brayan Bello's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.6
Bryce Elder's FF velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.3
Max Scherzer's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.2
Freddy Peralta's FF velo (58 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.8
Max Scherzer's FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 91.3
Charlie Morton's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 83.2
MacKenzie Gore's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 80.7
Freddy Peralta's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 85.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brayan Bello's SL usage (37.8%) up 15.6 points
Framber Valdez's CU usage (39.0%) up 10.8 points
Gavin Williams's CU usage (28.6%) up 10.5 points
Kenny Rosenberg's FF usage (56.5%) up 10.5 points
Kyle Hendricks's CU usage (22.6%) up 15.5 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (28.3%) up 18.1 points
Logan Webb's FF usage (16.2%) up 11.2 points
Luis L. Ortiz's FC usage (23.6%) up 13.7 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (22.0%) up 15.3 points
Mitch Spence's SI usage (23.5%) up 10.5 points
Nick Lodolo's SI usage (22.1%) up 12.6 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (25.3%) up 13.3 points
Zac Gallen's CH usage (31.4%) up 17.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +22.0%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%
Logan Webb Changeup: -17.9%
Luis Gil Slider: +15.3%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Albert Suarez Cutter: -14.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Spencer Arrighetti Cutter: -13.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +13.4%
Trevor Rogers 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +13.0%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +12.8%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.6%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.5%
Spencer Schwellenbach Sinker: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 70 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 103 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 72 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 72 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
Luis L. Ortiz - 77 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 40.0% K%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Hunter Greene - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 91 TBF, 31.9% K%
Joe Ryan - 76 TBF, 31.6% K%
Andrew Heaney - 72 TBF, 30.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 37.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 79 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 67 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 74 TBF, 61.7% GB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Jose Quintana - 77 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Luis Castillo - 95 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Michael Wacha - 71 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Ben Lively - 70 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Taj Bradley - 96 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Charlie Morton - 70 TBF, 53.8% GB%
George Kirby - 96 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 3.1 BB%, 56.8% GB%
Carson Fulmer - 48 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Cole Ragans - 53 TBF, 28.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 53 TBF, 37.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 90 TBF, 27.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 29.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Paul Skenes - 50 TBF, 38.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 57.7% GB%
Seth Lugo - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 40.0 K%, 2.9 BB%, 52.5% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 9.82 ERA, 3.62 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.98 ERA, 3.05 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 7.84 ERA, 4.81 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.66 ERA, 3.9 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 6.41 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
Mitch Spence: 6.66 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Nestor Cortes: 6.23 ERA, 3.62 SIERA
Mitchell Parker: 6.2 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 7.0 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Sonny Gray: 5.04 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
Luckiest
Taj Bradley: 0.58 ERA, 3.21 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot: 2.22 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Kyle Freeland: 1.95 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.12 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.7 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.87 ERA, 4.55 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 1.91 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.1 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 2.7 ERA, 4.31 SIERA
Andrew Abbott: 3.29 ERA, 4.86 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Brayan Bello - +5.5% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +5.9% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.0% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +5.0% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +4.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +10.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +2.4% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
JP Sears - +4.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Tyler Anderson - +5.5% CSW%, -7.9 BB%
Bailey Ober - +4.7% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Bryce Elder - +8.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Andy Pages (LAD) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Austin Riley (ATL) 8 PA, 20 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brendan Donovan (STL) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 8 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 9 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Luis Campusano, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 110.1
Trey Lipscomb, Yesterday: 108.2 Previous High: 105.4
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.7mph - double
Austin Riley (ATL) - 112.4mph - home_run
Juan Yepez (WSH) - 112.2mph - single
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 112.0mph - home_run
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.3mph - single
Davis Schneider (TOR) - 111.2mph - nan
Luis Campusano (SD) - 110.8mph - single
Heliot Ramos (SF) - 110.8mph - single
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) - 110.6mph - single
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) - 110.4mph - home_run
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.