MLB Daily Notes - July 22nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
The man of the day was Hayden Birdsong:
6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 12 K, 2 BB, 27.6% SwStr%, 55.1% Strike%
It was against the Rockies, so let’s talk about the Rockies again real quick. They have averaged 21.5 whiffs per game on offense.
Whiffs Per Game
COL 21.5
ATL 20.5
SEA 20.0
BOS 19.9
OAK 19.6
You’d think they’d do better on that front at home, but they’re a bit worse at 21.8 at home. Nine pitchers have gone for 20+ whiffs against the Rockies this year:
Whiffs vs. COL
Hayden Birdsong (7/21): 27
Garrett Crochet (6/30): 24
Cole Ragans (7/5): 22
Jake Irvin (6/23): 22
Ronel Blanco (4/27): 21
Ryan Pepiot (4/7): 21
Frankie Montas (6/4): 20
Hunter Brown (6/25): 20
Shota Imanaga (4/1): 20
So it’s the best matchup in the league to get whiffs. Let’s look at Birdsong now:
So this was his first start above six innings, his first start with more than five strikeouts, and he’s walked multiple hitters in every single start. The overall picture is not pretty. Stuff-wise:
The stuff is above average, but the locations have been awful. His Location+ is 91 on the year (doesn’t count yesterday), and that is sixth-worst in the league for pitchers with at least five starts.
We’re talking about a 22-year-old kid, so there is a long way to go with him, but with eyes on 2024 alone, this shouldn’t change anything. We’re not using Birdsong in normal fantasy leagues this year.
Next on the SwStr% list is Michael King, who had one of his best starts.
7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 22.4% SwStr%, 47.1% Strike%
In King’s first ten starts this year he posted a 14.8% K-BB% and a 4.28 ERA. It wasn’t looking great. In his last ten, he has a 23.2% K-BB% with a 2.21 ERA. That is the 11th-best K-BB% in this time frame.
K-BB% Leaders Since May 25th
Crochet 32.5%
Skenes 30.6%
Cease 27.0%
Glasnow 26.8%
Sale 25.6%
Flaherty 25.5%
Skubal 25.5%
Gray 24.4%
Kirby 24.4%
Bibee 24.0%
King 23.2%
Put it all together for King, and you have a 19% K-BB% on the year with a 12.9% SwStr%, a 49.0% Strike%, a 35.2% Ball%, and a 39% GB%. He’s very good.
It’s a little surprising how good he has been. The Stuff+ is 94, the Location+ is 92. The fastballs don’t get whiffs, although he has posted strong Strike% marks with both of them.
I think this is probably an example of the tunneling thing that doesn’t really show up in the numbers. He throws a fastball 50% of the time, but he splits that 50% evenly between the two fastballs, which move differently. Here are his pitch movements:
This is a huge key to pitching, and it’s one of those things that, like I said, we really describe with numbers. If you can throw two different pitches that look exactly the same out of the hand, but then one stays straight and the other one moves down and away from me, I’m going to have a lot of trouble getting the bat on that. And I’ll probably have a lot of those situations where I just can’t get a swing off at all, resulting in a lot of called strikes. So that’s my guess about King’s performance here.
His sinker is fifth-best in called strike rate:
So there is some evidence for my theory on him. And then he has a sick changeup, which puts the bow on the whole thing.
Next is Spencer Schwellenbach:
6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, 21.4% SwStr%, 56.1% Strike%, 26.5% Ball%
The four earned runs aren’t what you want. He gave up three home runs. This is about as good of a start as you can have while giving up three homers. And overall, it was a really impressive outing for the man. The 21 whiffs were his most of the season, and he’s gone for double-digits in seven of his nine starts.
He’s now at a 51.9% Strike% and 14.3% SwStr% on the year.
Strike% Leaders - 6 GS Minimum
Crochet 53.3%
Skenes 53.3%
Sale 53.0%
Skubal 53.0%
Schwellenbach 51.9%
Woo 51.1%
Ryan 50.8%
Pivetta 50.8%
Yamamoto 50.7%
Cole 50.7%
The pitch mix:
Schwellenbach is a really unique arm. Only 12 SPs have made at least six starts and have a zone rate above 55%.
Zone% Leaders
Woo 61.5%
Estes 58.8%
Steele 58.1 %
C Irvin 56.8%
Mikolas 56.1%
Skubal 56.0%
J Irvin 55.9%
Cecconi 55.9%
Darvish 55.6%
Ryan 55.6%
Schwellenbach 55.0%
Falter 55.0%
Throwing a bunch of pitches in the zone is only a good thing if they are good pitches. You can see some pitchers here that have not had very good seasons (Estes, Cole Irvin, Mikolas, Cecconi), so you need to combine your strike throwing with quality pitches. Schwelly has done that, and I think he’s a pretty much must-own guy right now in 12-team leagues or deeper.
Shota Imanaga had an absolute beauty:
7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, 21.1% SwStr%, 55.6% Strike%
This was very good to see, given his shaky end to the first half.
The SwStr% had really fallen off in June there.
Imanaga SwStr% by Month
April: 15.6%
May: 17.8%
June: 12.7%
July: 16.3%
I would still say that this is a sell-high option. That’s mostly because of the fly ball stuff. He has given up a 37% FB%, that’s the highest in the league (SPs with at least 10 starts), and he’s paired that with a very low 10.9% HR/FB.
The league average HR/FB is around 15-16%, and for every pitcher, it will tend to regress toward that average. Let’s use the Imanaga example here to break this down.
Shota Imanaga Fly Balls Analysis
Fly Balls Given Up: 110
Homers Given Up on Fly Balls: 12
HR/FB: 10.9%
If his HR/FB was 15.5%, he would have given up 17 homers instead of 12. That’s probably eight more earned runs on his tally. That would take his ERA from 2.86 to 3.55. That’s a pretty huge difference.
We could actually just summarize this by looking at his ERA indicators.
Imanaga ERA indicators:
ERA: 2.86
SIERA: 3.50
xFIP: 3.74
FIP: 3.25
I bolded xFIP here, because that is the one that incorporates HR/FB into it. So that will most highlight the guys that have been lucky on fly balls. A 3.74 mark is a far cry from the 2.86.
That said, if he keeps getting the SwStr% where it is currently, he’ll have plenty of success - there will just be a few of those bad starts mixed in where he gives up multiple dingers. That’s good enough for me to see if I can move him for an elite bat or another top-15 or so SP.
Christian Scott had another bad start. He’s down to a 19.8% K% and 46.4% Strike%. It does not seem that he’s a very good Major League pitcher at this current moment. He needs to figure out some way to get lefties out, they have a .938 OPS and .388 xwOBA against him now with a 17.5% K%. He’s been good against righties (.530 OPS, 22% K%, .270 xwOBA)
Brandon Pfaadt has now fired off 13 scoreless innings in a row against the Braves and Cubs. His K% is up to 23%, and his BB% is at 5.5%. Over his last nine starts, he has a 22.4% K%, a 7.0% BB%, and a 3.21 ERA. He’s not a great pitcher, but he’s certainly in the top half of the league.
He’s one of just 15 SPs with 15+ starts and a Pitching+ mark above 106.
I think he’s a fantasy starter in anything deeper than a 12-teamer, and he’s a viable streamer everywhere.
Complete game for Seth Lugo! He once again did it without impressing anybody with the advanced metrics:
103 pitches, 12.6% SwStr%, 44.7% Strike%, 33% Ball%
It was against the White Sox, so it’s a bit of a grain of salt there. But we can’t deny the guy is good. He has a 2.45 ERA on the year with a 1.04 WHIP. The BABIP is .268, the xwOBA is .310, and the GB% is 43.5%. Everything in the profile screams “sell high”, so that’s how I feel about it, but given Lugo’s history of doing stuff like this, it’s a little bit less urgent. He might actually just keep going this stuff for the rest of the season.
Getting a little nervous about Shane Baz now. He had to face the Yankees again, which is tough, but just four whiffs on 76 pitches. His SwStr% on the year is just 9.3% now on 236 pitches. The Stuff+ is 117, so that’s a good sign. I think he’ll quickly get the SwStr% into the double-digits, but this was a guy we were thinking would be 14-16%, and he’s not close to that yet. It’s not as though he’s getting ramped up either. He had a long rehab outing, and he’s been making starts every 5-7 days since early May. So I don’t know about the guy. All of those injuries may have just taken too much of the electricity out of his arm.
Hitter Review
Top fantasy point scorers of the weekend:
Santander 67 points
Duran 66
Springer 58
Arozarena 57
Butler 52
Witt Jr. 52
Schuemann 51
Chourio 50
Lux 50
Neto 49
Soto 49
O Cruz 46
J Young 46
Freeman 46
Andujar 45
George Springer double-doinked yesterday, and now has a 1.102 OPS over his last month of play (99 PAs). He’s homered eight times with a 19% Brl% in this time frame with a .438 xwOBA.
Jacob Young stole four bags over the weekend and is now sixth in the league on that front with 24, but he has just a .635 OPS and doesn’t play every day.
Oneil Cruz has his season OPS up to .757 with 15 homers and seven steals. Since mid-June, he has a .260/.308/.510 slash line with six homers, but still a 33% K% and 6% BB%. In July, it’s a .320/.352/.600 lines with three homers, but still - a 33% K%. It’s going to be hot and cold with the guy.
Some low-owned xwOBA standouts of July:
Nolan Schanuel: .419
Eugenio Suarez: .386
Michael Toglia: .382
Jake Meyers: .361
Spencer Horwitz: .354
Gio Urshela: .352
Angel Martinez: .341
JJ Bleday: .314
Matt Vierling: .312
Xavier Edwards: .312
We’ve gotta move on to other things. Thanks for checking out the notes today!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Hayden Birdsong
2. Michael King
3. Shota Imanaga
4. Spencer Schwellenbach
5. Drew Thorpe
6. Joe Ryan
7. Ronel Blanco
8. Brandon Pfaadt
9. Marcus Stroman
10. Christian Scott
11. Bryan Woo
12. Seth Lugo
13. Andrew Abbott
14. Jake Irvin
15. Miles Mikolas
16. James Paxton
17. Marco Gonzales
18. Kutter Crawford
19. Carson Fulmer
20. Trevor Rogers
21. Ryan Feltner
22. Tyler Phillips
23. Andrew Heaney
24. Joey Estes
25. Aaron Civale
26. Ben Lively
27. Keider Montero
28. Kevin Gausman
29. Dean Kremer
30. Shane Baz
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hayden Birdsong (vs. COL): 35.1 Points
2. Seth Lugo (vs. CWS): 32.45 Points
3. Shota Imanaga (vs. ARI): 31.95 Points
4. Brandon Pfaadt (vs. CHC): 28.55 Points
5. Michael King (vs. CLE): 27.95 Points
6. Jake Irvin (vs. CIN): 22.75 Points
7. Tyler Phillips (vs. PIT): 20.5 Points
8. Drew Thorpe (vs. KC): 20.5 Points
9. Bryan Woo (vs. HOU): 20.36 Points
10. Andrew Heaney (vs. BAL): 20.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 27 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
2. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 21 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Michael King (SD): 19 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 19 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
5. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Drew Thorpe (CWS): 18 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
8. Seth Lugo (KC): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Jake Irvin (WSH): 13 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
10. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 56.1 Strike%, 26.5 Ball%
2. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 55.6 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
3. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 55.1 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
4. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 54.0 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
5. Joe Ryan (MIN): 52.3 Strike%, 26.1 Ball%
6. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 50.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
7. Bryan Woo (SEA): 49.3 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
8. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 48.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
9. Ben Lively (CLE): 48.5 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
10. Drew Thorpe (CWS): 48.5 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
11. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 48.0 Strike%, 39.0 Ball%
12. Marco Gonzales (PIT): 47.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
13. James Paxton (LAD): 47.4 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
14. Michael King (SD): 47.1 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
15. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 47.0 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo: 103 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.81 POUT
2. Michael King: 85 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.25 POUT
3. Bryan Woo: 73 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.29 POUT
4. Shota Imanaga: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
5. Brandon Pfaadt: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
6. Keider Montero: 72 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.5 POUT
7. Ryan Feltner: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
8. Tyler Phillips: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
9. Jake Irvin: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
10. Joe Ryan: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Joe Ryan's FS velo (14 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.8
Aaron Civale's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 76.3
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 82.1
Seth Lugo's SI velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 90.8
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 78.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Abbott's ST usage (36.9%) up 19.8 points
Ben Lively's FF usage (49.5%) up 11.6 points
Carson Fulmer's FF usage (44.2%) up 27.0 points
Dean Kremer's SI usage (33.7%) up 17.6 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (16.9%) up 12.0 points
Hayden Birdsong's CU usage (33.7%) up 17.8 points
Jake Irvin's FF usage (50.0%) up 12.9 points
James Paxton's CU usage (37.9%) up 11.2 points
Joe Ryan's SI usage (22.7%) up 20.2 points
Joey Estes's ST usage (38.1%) up 19.6 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (25.3%) up 10.2 points
Michael King's CH usage (41.2%) up 21.0 points
Ryan Feltner's ST usage (13.3%) up 11.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +22.0%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Logan Webb Changeup: -17.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Luis Gil Slider: +15.3%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +15.0%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Albert Suarez Cutter: -14.1%
Drew Thorpe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Joe Ryan Sinker: +13.8%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Spencer Arrighetti Cutter: -13.4%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +13.0%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +12.8%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.6%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.5%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 92 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Michael King - 68 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 103 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 72 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 84 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 40.0% K%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
Shota Imanaga - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Hayden Birdsong - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 70 TBF, 37.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 79 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 75 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 74 TBF, 61.7% GB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Jose Soriano - 64 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Jose Quintana - 77 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Michael Wacha - 71 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Taj Bradley - 74 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Charlie Morton - 70 TBF, 53.8% GB%
George Kirby - 96 TBF, 53.0% GB%
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