MLB Daily Notes - July 24th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Pitchers - Yesterday
Big old day for Jesus Luzardo with 26 whiffs, 13 strikeouts, and two walks. A very nice 51.3% Strike%, an incredibly elite 22.6% SwStr%. Here’s the updated pitch arsenal breakdown:
If you have a release point like this with a slider like this with a nice changeup to back it up and anything close to a good four-seamer, you’re going to be dominant when your command is right. That’s the case with Luzardo. When he has the command, he’s one of the game’s best pitchers. But we have seen him struggle with the command at times. Overall in 2023, he’s been pretty darn good with it:
Even last year the BB% was more than good enough around 9% - that’ll play fine with a 30% K%. But now he’s dropped it to 6% and only lost a point on the K% - and the Strike% is quite good. These are ace-type numbers, and maybe that’s just who Luzardo is now!
MacKenzie Gore is pretty similar to the Luzardo in that he’s a young lefty that’s been able to get a lot of strikeouts. He has not made the drastic improvements in strike-throwing that Luzardo has, but he has made some.
Okay actually I misspoke, he has been drastically better in 2023 as compared to 2022, but that’s because he was pretty bad in 2022. An 18.2% K-BB% with a 48.4% Strike% and a 14.2% SwStr% shows us a very good pitcher. The walk rate has been falling. In his first ten starts he went for a 12% BB%. In the last ten, it’s 7.5%.
Over these last 10:
47.4% Strike%
36.8% Ball%
14.4% SwStr%
27.8% K%
7.5% BB%
That’s very good. He’s been hit hard overall (.365 xwOBA) - but you know that I don’t take that very seriously at all over a small sample. If you go for a high Brl%/xwOBA allowed over a short sample (I would even consider a full year a short sample with these stats), it’s quite likely that you’ll improve on that in the short term future just by virtue of regression to the mean. Pitchers don’t have a ton of control over that, so we should project the league average in most cases.
So I really like Gore for the rest of the year and for next year. He is right behind Luzardo in the Yesterday SP Data sheet:
Here’s the updated arsenal:
A few weeks ago I wrote about not giving up on Jameson Taillon just yet. He was one of these guys that was doing okay but just getting crushed by hard contact. That has evened out over the last three starts and he’s put up a pretty good line.
Much better results there, but unfortunately it hasn’t been driven by whiffs.
Just an 8.9% SwStr% over these last three, but a good 49.5% Strike%. That means he’s gotten a lot of called strikes and foul balls, and that’s not something to rely on.
So I don’t think Taillon is good for standard fantasy leagues, but I don’t think he’s really a bottom-10% pitcher in the league like he was at the beginning of his season.
Alex Faedo returned and beat the Padres Sunday morning. Personally I thought he should have just gone to church, but I guess it’s okay to work Sunday mornings if you’re going to pitch well.
He’s one of the sneakier pitchers in the league in terms of being very much not rostered in fantasy but being actually kind of decent.
He throws a bunch of strikes, as we see above. The SwStr% is low at 10.9%, but the 15% K-BB% certainly keeps him away from the league’s really bad pitchers. Anybody throwing that many strikes always gives themselves a chance to have good outings. The only way you can’t possible make an out is if you walk a guy, and Faedo doesn’t do that very much. The K% is still a long way away from where we want it, but he’s an interesting streamer/deep league guy to keep an eye on.
Four walks and a 42.9% Ball% from Tyler Wells yesterday. That’s not normal for him, but he’s pitched quite badly since coming out of the break. The “sell high” ship has sailed - so I guess you just have to keep plugging him in there and hope this walk thing doesn’t become a trend.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jesus Luzardo (vs. COL): 36.15 Points
2. MacKenzie Gore (vs. SF): 27.65 Points
3. Lucas Giolito (vs. MIN): 23.85 Points
4. Jameson Taillon (vs. STL): 21.96 Points
5. Aaron Nola (vs. CLE): 20.15 Points
6. Julio Teheran (vs. ATL): 19.7 Points
7. Bailey Ober (vs. CWS): 18.5 Points
8. Alex Faedo (vs. SD): 18.5 Points
9. Luis Medina (vs. HOU): 18.25 Points
10. Martin Perez (vs. LAD): 16.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 26 Whiffs (115 Pitches)
2. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
3. Bryan Woo (SEA): 17 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Mitch Keller (PIT): 15 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Bailey Ober (MIN): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
7. Luis Medina (OAK): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Alek Manoah (TOR): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Taj Bradley (TB): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Julio Teheran (MIL): 13 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 56.4 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
2. Bryan Woo (SEA): 53.3 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
3. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 52.3 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
4. Luis Medina (OAK): 51.6 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 51.3 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
6. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 51.1 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
7. Luis Severino (NYY): 50.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 49.4 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
9. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
10. Joe Musgrove (SD): 46.7 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
11. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 46.4 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
12. Bailey Ober (MIN): 46.3 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
13. Martin Perez (TEX): 45.7 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
14. Mitch Keller (PIT): 45.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
15. Tyler Wells (BAL): 45.5 Strike%, 42.9 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
More velo from Mitch Keller yesterday. He might be in a little bit of personal panic mode as he just can’t replicate anything near his success from April-May.
He did have a very nice 14.9% SwStr% yesterday, but with that came more balls. He had one of his worst ball rates of the year at 38%. The 15 whiffs and 7:1 K:BB was a good sign though. He’s certainly not a guy to drop, but maybe you just bench him in very tough matchups. I think we’ll get a mixed bag of results from here on out, but the nice thing about a mixed bag is that it’s not an all-bad bag!
Aaron Nola continues to throw fewer and fewer sinkers:
The four-seam usage reached a near season-high yesterday, and it worked pretty nicely with a 15.3% SwStr% and a nice 7:0 K:BB.
This is the reason I will always like guys like Nola even if they’re struggling a bit. Having that many weapons gives you so many different ways to go. If something isn’t working, you don’t have to use it. Imagine if Spencer Strider just couldn’t throw a slider for a strike one day. He’d essentially be screwed. No the case with Nola - he has options. That’s also the case with Mitch Keller with his big pitch mix. Depth of pitch arsenal is far from the more important thing (I’d certainly take a Strider over a Yu Darvish every time, for example), but it does matter - and we should be upgrading guys slightly if they have a deep pitch mix.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luke Weaver's FC velo (15 pitches) UP 4.4mph to 90.9
Luke Weaver's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 87.9
Mitch Keller's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 91.8
Bryce Elder's CH velo (23 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.3
Luis Severino's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.0
Luke Weaver's FF velo (35 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 95.4
Bryce Elder's SI velo (46 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.9
Mitch Keller's SI velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.6
Emmet Sheehan's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.5
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 87.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's FF usage (41.2%) up 14.0 points
Bailey Ober's CH usage (39.0%) up 13.3 points
Julio Teheran's SI usage (47.4%) up 11.3 points
Luis Medina's SI usage (19.4%) up 10.5 points
Martin Perez's SI usage (51.1%) up 11.6 points
Tyler Anderson's CH usage (51.5%) up 15.9 points
Tyler Wells's SL usage (27.3%) up 12.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -25.6%
Luis Medina Sinker: +20.8%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.4%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -17.4%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +16.5%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +16.0%
Michael Grove Slider: -15.1%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +14.4%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Luis Medina is on the magic formula qualifiers list. That’s pretty wild. His last four outings:
14.6% SwStr%, 46.2% Strike%, 27.8% K%, 10% BB%, .233 xwOBA
Season:
11.3% SwStr%, 43.5% Strike%, 22.7% K%, 11.7% BB%, .322 xwOBA, 45% GB%
So it would seem that he’s just been a bit lucky. I don’t think that guy is any good, but maybe he’s not a total gas can either.
I also want to talk about Clarke Schmidt again, but maybe I shouldn’t. Maybe I should give that up. Okay, I’ll give that up.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 69 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Logan Webb - 94 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Steven Matz - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Domingo German - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 45.9% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 37.5% K%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Domingo German - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Logan Webb - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 43.2% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 77 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 108 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 105 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 78 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Charlie Morton - 71 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Steven Matz - 68 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Brandon Bielak - 68 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 108 TBF, 27.8 K%, 0.9 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.0 K%, 3.2 BB%, 47.3% GB%
Jose Berrios - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Kodai Senga - 51 TBF, 39.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 94 TBF, 31.9 K%, 3.2 BB%, 54.1% GB%
Luis Medina - 66 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Steven Matz - 68 TBF, 30.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 48 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Joe Musgrove - +2.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.8% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Spencer Strider - +4.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +4.0% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - +2.9% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.2% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Kodai Senga - +4.0% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +4.9% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Hitters
Henry Davis is super ultra mega hot! For the year now:
.284/.376/.451, 4 HR, 10% Brl%, 19% K%, .351 xwOBA
That’s a really, really strong line for a rookie. In July:
.262/.366/.459, 3 HR, 11.5% Brl%, 13% K%, .375 xwOBA
51% GB% on the year, which isn’t great - but not terrible. The really surprising thing is the lack of strikeouts, so yeah this dude looks like he’s ready for the Majors and he should be a very good hitter moving forward.
As an outfielder, he’s more just “good” for fantasy, but as a catcher he’s already among the top grouping. Unfortunately, he’ll lose his catcher eligibility for next year - but there’s a good chance of it coming back. Anyways, good news for the Pirates there - and he’s obviously a must-start at catcher in all fantasy leagues right now.
Multiple Barrels
Luis Rengifo (LAA) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Chris Taylor, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 110.7
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.5mph - single
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 113.2mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 112.9mph - home_run
Victor Caratini (MIL) - 112.4mph - single
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 111.3mph - force_out
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 111.2mph - home_run
Chris Taylor (LAD) - 110.8mph - double
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 110.7mph - home_run
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 110.3mph - single
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.2mph - nan
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Patrick Bailey - 63 PA, 0.211 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Alex Verdugo - 67 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 72 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Will Brennan - 67 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Byron Buxton - 74 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 0.236 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 72 PA, 0.324 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 84 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 75 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, 0.046 Diff
Luis Matos - 64 PA, 0.296 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, 0.043 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 88 PA, 0.534 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, -0.157 Diff
Luke Raley - 67 PA, 0.379 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, -0.126 Diff
Masataka Yoshida - 69 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Justin Turner - 77 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 64 PA, 0.495 wOBA, 0.393 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Rafael Devers - 67 PA, 0.467 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 80 PA, 0.38 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Mike Ford - 65 PA, 0.451 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Zach Remillard - 63 PA, 0.326 wOBA, 0.24 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 84 PA, 0.466 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Edouard Julien - 50 PA, 30 BIP, 9 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 51 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Max Muncy - 70 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 47 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Francisco Alvarez - 49 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 58 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Corey Seager - 61 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Willy Adames - 70 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 56 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Edouard Julien - 50 PA, 0.498 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 73 PA, 0.493 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 0.485 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 69 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 61 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 44 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 58 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Adolis Garcia - 63 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
C.J. Cron - 44 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 70 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Wilmer Flores - 49 PA, 77 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 69 PA, 107 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 70 PA, 139 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 112 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 53 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 64 PA, 125 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 69 PA, 96 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 71 PA, 121 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 56 PA, 82 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Travis Jankowski - 47 PA, 77 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Willi Castro - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Will Benson - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Myles Straw - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Luis Robert - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Garcia - 671277 - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Javier Baez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Connor Wong - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Zack Gelof - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Willi Castro - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Bryson Stott - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jarren Duran - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Trea Turner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
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