MLB Daily Notes - July 24th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I’m pressed for time today, so this one is going to be short.
Pitcher Review
Garrett Crochet threw just 74 pitches. It’s pretty clear now that the White Sox are treating him with kid gloves. So if you are a Crochet owner, you really want him to be traded. He could end up being completely shut down if he’s still in Chicago after the deadline.
Jose Quintana did well against the Yankees, which shouldn’t have happened and it ruined my DFS lineup.
DJ Herz came back and put up a bad 45.6% Strike%. I thought he was kind of good before he was demoted, but he wasn’t very good last night.
Paul Skenes pitched into the ninth inning and took his first loss of his career. He gave up just two runs on four hits, he struck out eight and did not walk anybody. Eight strikeouts on just 11 whiffs, so once again he’s pilling up called strikes and foul balls. This should be explored a bit more, maybe I’ll do it on Twitter today.
Zack Wheeler threw seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, but had just 10 whiffs and a 43.9% Strike%. That’s been the story with him this year. He hasn’t looked super dominant in the numbers we like (27% K%, 13.4% SwStr%, 48.8% Strike%), but he’s still getting results (2.55 ERA, 0.97 WHIP).
Hitter Review
Here are your biggest hitter performances of the day:
Another big game from the Athletics. They took down the Astros and scored eight more runs. They lead the league in run differential in July. Lawrence Butler now has his OPS up to .803 with 10 homers, a 12.5% Brl%, and a .354 xwOBA. He looks quite good. The K% is a bit high at 27% and the contact rate is lower at 71%, but he hits the ball hard and puts enough balls in play to matter.
Brent Rooker joined him, hitting his 23rd homer of the season. He has a 66% Contact% and 32% K%, so there are going to be some slumps in his game, but he’s not missing very much on contact (18.3% Brl%, .395 xwOBA, 29% GB%).
And then I insulted Tyler Fitzgerald on Twitter yesterday, saying he’s not relevant for fantasy in all likelihood, but then he went out and hit another homer. He’s slashing .322/.390/.600 with six homers, a 10% Brl%, and a 30% K% in his 100 PAs. The xwOBA isn’t great at .332, but he hits fly balls (35% FB%), and that will turn into some homers. The hard hit rate is low at 32%, and the exit velocities are low as well, so I don’t think the homers will keep coming - especially given the high strikeout rate.
One more deep league hitter to check on - Jhonkensy Noel. I don’t want to write about him after this because that is a really hard first name to type. He’s slashing .256/.313/.651 with 5 homes in 48 PAs. The Brl% is 23%, the K% is 38%, but the hard hit rate is 54%. So that would appear to be an all-or-nothing swinger, he’ll either whiff or hit a ball pretty hard. He has the fourth-highest bat speed in the league:
So that is a good sign for his continued homer production, but there will probably be way too many strikeouts to keep him above water.
Baseball all day today, starting at 12:20 Eastern. I will get the slate preview out early.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jon Gray
2. Garrett Crochet
3. Colin Rea
4. Logan Gilbert
5. Paul Skenes
6. Jake Bloss
7. Kyle Tyler
8. Luis Gil
9. Simeon Woods Richardson
10. Osvaldo Bido
11. DJ Herz
12. Jose Quintana
13. Landon Knack
14. Jordan Hicks
15. Cooper Criswell
16. Jordan Montgomery
17. Zack Wheeler
18. Alec Marsh
19. Jameson Taillon
20. Lance Lynn
21. Albert Suarez
22. Jose Soriano
23. Ty Blach
24. Xzavion Curry
25. Randy Vasquez
26. Jose Berrios
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Paul Skenes (vs. STL): 28.34 Points
2. Jon Gray (vs. CWS): 26.86 Points
3. Zack Wheeler (vs. MIN): 26.75 Points
4. Logan Gilbert (vs. LAA): 26.01 Points
5. Jose Soriano (vs. SEA): 25.66 Points
6. Cooper Criswell (vs. COL): 24.15 Points
7. Colin Rea (vs. CHC): 23.65 Points
8. Landon Knack (vs. SF): 22.85 Points
9. Osvaldo Bido (vs. HOU): 22.85 Points
10. Simeon Woods Richardson (vs. PHI): 21.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
2. Colin Rea (MIL): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
3. Jose Quintana (NYM): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 14 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
5. Kyle Tyler (MIA): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 12 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
7. Luis Gil (NYY): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Jake Bloss (HOU): 11 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
9. Paul Skenes (PIT): 11 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
10. Landon Knack (LAD): 10 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Paul Skenes (PIT): 54.8 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
2. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 54.1 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
3. Jake Bloss (HOU): 53.2 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 51.2 Strike%, 21.2 Ball%
5. Colin Rea (MIL): 50.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
6. Anthony Molina (COL): 50.0 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
7. Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 50.0 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
8. Alec Marsh (KC): 49.4 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
9. Noah Davis (COL): 49.1 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Kyle Tyler (MIA): 48.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
11. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 48.9 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
12. Jordan Hicks (SF): 47.8 Strike%, 45.7 Ball%
13. Cooper Criswell (BOS): 47.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
14. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 45.7 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
15. DJ Herz (WSH): 45.6 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jon Gray: 80 Pitches, 23 Outs, 3.48 POUT
2. Randy Vasquez: 68 Pitches, 18 Outs, 3.78 POUT
3. Paul Skenes: 104 Pitches, 25 Outs, 4.16 POUT
4. Jose Soriano: 100 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.35 POUT
5. Jameson Taillon: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
6. Logan Gilbert: 92 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.6 POUT
7. Osvaldo Bido: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT
8. Xzavion Curry: 62 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.77 POUT
9. Jordan Montgomery: 67 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.79 POUT
10. Cooper Criswell: 105 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
DJ Herz's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.9
Jordan Hicks's FS velo (10 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.1
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.3
Jameson Taillon's SI velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.1
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (44 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 93.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Jon Gray's SL usage (53.8%) up 12.3 points
Jordan Hicks's ST usage (32.6%) up 10.1 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (65.0%) up 26.3 points
Luis Gil's SL usage (44.0%) up 23.4 points
Noah Davis's CU usage (26.3%) up 14.7 points
Osvaldo Bido's FC usage (18.6%) up 11.5 points
Paul Skenes's SI usage (17.3%) up 15.2 points
Randy Vasquez's FC usage (25.0%) up 11.7 points
Xzavion Curry's FF usage (66.1%) up 15.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.0%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +19.2%
Logan Webb Changeup: -17.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +15.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.9%
Tobias Myers Slider: +14.9%
Blake Snell Curveball: +14.5%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Drew Thorpe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Joe Ryan Sinker: +13.8%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +13.0%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +12.8%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.6%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Michael King - 68 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 83 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 103 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 102 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 41.4% K%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Carlos Rodon - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Chris Sale - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Gerrit Cole - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 79 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 74 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 68 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Jose Quintana - 99 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
David Peterson - 68 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Michael Wacha - 71 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 69 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 62 TBF, 27.4 K%, 1.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Carson Fulmer - 62 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 47.5% GB%
George Kirby - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Justin Martinez - 43 TBF, 27.9 K%, 7.0 BB%, 75.0% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 102 TBF, 29.4 K%, 4.9 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 59.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 6.4 ERA, 3.0 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.18 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
Ranger Suarez: 7.33 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 6.41 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Joe Ryan: 5.34 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 7.84 ERA, 5.58 SIERA
Mitch Spence: 6.66 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Kyle Gibson: 5.84 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 6.41 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 5.59 ERA, 4.12 SIERA
Luckiest
Andrew Abbott: 2.54 ERA, 6.05 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 0.58 ERA, 3.31 SIERA
David Peterson: 2.42 ERA, 4.66 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.7 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Andrew Heaney: 1.98 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.17 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.82 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 2.7 ERA, 4.3 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.51 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 3.62 ERA, 4.74 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jake Irvin - +2.5% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +6.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Brayan Bello - +7.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Tyler Anderson - +3.9% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +5.0% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Ryne Nelson - +2.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +4.6% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
JP Sears - +4.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Bryce Elder - +8.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Brandon Lowe (TB) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Rogers (DET) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Mark Vientos (NYM) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Matt Wallner (MIN) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Gabriel Moreno, Yesterday: 111.1 Previous High: 110.2
Jackson Chourio, Yesterday: 109.7 Previous High: 109.5
Mickey Moniak, Yesterday: 112.8 Previous High: 111.0
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.7mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 114.3mph - field_out
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 114.2mph - single
Lawrence Butler (OAK) - 113.0mph - home_run
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) - 112.9mph - home_run
Mickey Moniak (LAA) - 112.8mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.4mph - nan
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.0mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.7mph - nan
Tyler Locklear (SEA) - 111.7mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jorge Polanco - 66 PA, 0.257 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, 0.131 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 60 PA, 0.25 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Matt Olson - 78 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Jake Meyers - 80 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Ben Rice - 82 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.402 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 76 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Jarred Kelenic - 81 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Taylor Ward - 80 PA, 0.208 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Trent Grisham - 65 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Jordan Westburg - 74 PA, 0.284 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Bottom 10
Trea Turner - 82 PA, 0.465 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Max Schuemann - 66 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 77 PA, 0.584 wOBA, 0.474 xwOBA, -0.11 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 69 PA, 0.574 wOBA, 0.476 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Justyn-Henry Malloy - 61 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Colt Keith - 76 PA, 0.454 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Jose Iglesias - 61 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 81 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Heliot Ramos - 82 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 88 PA, 0.32 wOBA, 0.246 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Ben Rice - 69 PA, 37 BIP, 11 Brls, 29.7 Brl%
Juan Soto - 75 PA, 55 BIP, 15 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 58 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 56 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 68 PA, 44 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 66 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 68 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 62 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 75 PA, 0.516 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 66 PA, 0.504 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 68 PA, 0.499 xwOBA
Lawrence Butler - 62 PA, 0.498 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 65 PA, 0.489 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 79 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 52 PA, 0.47 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 65 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Christian Yelich - 56 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 74 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 57 PA, 114 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 148 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 64 PA, 112 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 48 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 54 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Nolan Arenado - 70 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Ernie Clement - 51 PA, 84 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 63 PA, 105 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 61 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 69 PA, 140 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Lane Thomas - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Victor Robles - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jacob Young - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Mike Siani - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jo Adell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Lane Thomas - 14 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Luis Robert - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Josh Lowe - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Zach Neto - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Harrison Bader - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Jacob Young - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 65 PA, 12.3 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 45 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 56 PA, 14.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Corey Seager - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 79 PA, 12.7 K%, 15.4 Brl%
George Springer - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 46 PA, 19.6 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Jake Meyers - 62 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Juan Soto - 75 PA, 14.7 K%, 27.3 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 22.2 Brl%
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