MLB Daily Notes - July 25th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Tarik Skubal might be one of the best starters in the league. He finally got the leash off and threw 82 pitches yesterday with a sweet 15.9% SwStr%. He struck out 53% of the batters he faced. For the year now:
35.4% K%
4.6% BB%
15.0% SwStr%
56.4% Strike%
29.3% Ball%
If we are very generous to the small sample, Skubal ranks #1 in Strike% and second in Ball% only to the great George Kirby. That 35.4% K% is fourth behind just Strider and deGrom. Pretty insane stuff - Skubal is making up for the lost time in a hurry.
Michael Grove had a 22.1% SwStr% yesterday against the Blue Jays with a 6:0 K:BB. For the year now:
11.9% SwSr%
47.2% Strike%
34.0% Ball%
21.2% K%
6.8% BB%
He’s been a little better in the SwStr% lately but he’s done nothing like this 22% before - so I think that was just kind of a random spike game and not something to look at very closely.
Jon Gray got roughed up for six earnies, but did have a decent 17.1% SwStr%. The problem was that he walked three batters on a bad 37.8% Ball%. So he’s been back and forth between just not having his normal good stuff and not having the command. He put those two together for awhile there in the middle of the year and he was elite, but he can also be pretty bad like he’s been in July. I’d still hold on because he’s shown us some really good stuff since exiting Colorado - but he’s not a reliable fantasy starter at this point.
Quinn Priester beat the Padres but it was just a 5.6% SwStr% and he threw a bunch of balls (44%). The 4:3 K:BB is bad. A 38.2% Strike% and 43.8% Ball% won’t turn into a good outing very often - so Priester has a lot of work to do. Another disappointing prospect arrival for the Pirates!
A reminder about the Automated SP Ranks - I developed these in June and it updates every morning. Here’s your top 10 from the “Last 30 Days” tab:
It’s weighted very heavily on SwStr%, which is how Strider can be at the top for a wide margin despite having given up a good amount of runs. The xwOBACON does factor in, but it’s weighted pretty low - since we know that’s not something a pitcher has a ton of control over. The link to that sheet is below the paywall and in the resource glossary page.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (vs. SF): 32.05 Points
2. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. MIN): 26.15 Points
3. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. BAL): 25.35 Points
4. Kenta Maeda (vs. SEA): 23.44 Points
5. Graham Ashcraft (vs. MIL): 18.59 Points
6. Dean Kremer (vs. PHI): 16.75 Points
7. Colin Rea (vs. CIN): 15.9 Points
8. Ryan Yarbrough (vs. CLE): 13.9 Points
9. Michael Grove (vs. TOR): 13.71 Points
10. Logan Allen - 671106 (vs. KC): 13.55 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 18 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Michael Grove (LAD): 15 Whiffs (68 Pitches)
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): 13 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
6. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
7. Ross Stripling (SF): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
8. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 11 Whiffs (110 Pitches)
10. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 11 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (DET): 63.4 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
2. Graham Ashcraft (CIN): 54.5 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
3. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 53.3 Strike%, 27.2 Ball%
4. Colin Rea (MIL): 50.5 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
5. Michael Grove (LAD): 50.0 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
6. Luis Castillo (SEA): 49.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
7. Logan Allen (CLE): 46.4 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
8. Ryan Yarbrough (KC): 44.4 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
9. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 43.1 Strike%, 42.2 Ball%
10. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 42.9 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
11. Jon Gray (TEX): 42.7 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
12. Ross Stripling (SF): 42.5 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
13. Dean Kremer (BAL): 42.1 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
14. Adam Wainwright (STL): 40.8 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
15. Jose Berrios (TOR): 38.3 Strike%, 44.7 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Quinn Priester's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.4
Ryne Nelson's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Bielak's FF usage (48.0%) up 19.3 points
Colin Rea's FC usage (39.6%) up 13.9 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (63.4%) up 33.2 points
Logan Allen's FC usage (19.0%) up 11.5 points
Luis Castillo's SL usage (34.6%) up 13.0 points
Michael Grove's SL usage (48.5%) up 14.4 points
Michael Grove's FC usage (17.6%) up 10.8 points
Quinn Priester's FF usage (22.5%) up 12.9 points
Ross Stripling's CH usage (37.9%) up 13.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -25.6%
Jon Gray Slider: +21.7%
Luis Medina Sinker: +20.8%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +20.5%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.4%
Michael Grove Cutter: +19.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -17.4%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +16.0%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +14.4%
Colin Rea Cutter: +14.4%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Michael Grove Slider: -13.4%
Brandon Bielak Sinker: -13.0%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Blake Snell - 67 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kenta Maeda - 88 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Clarke Schmidt - 69 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Steven Matz - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 108 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 45.9% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%
Kenta Maeda - 88 TBF, 36.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 35.4% K%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Blake Snell - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 74 TBF, 43.2% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 71 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 65 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 105 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 70 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 78 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 65 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Charlie Morton - 71 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 108 TBF, 27.8 K%, 0.9 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Chris Stratton - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.0 K%, 3.2 BB%, 47.3% GB%
Kodai Senga - 51 TBF, 39.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 1.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%
Luis Medina - 66 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Steven Matz - 68 TBF, 30.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 35.4 K%, 4.6 BB%, 55.3% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +2.8% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Spencer Strider - +4.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - +2.9% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.2% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Kodai Senga - +4.0% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Logan Allen - +4.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Hitters
Two barrels and a dinger for Elly De La Cruz - that’s good to see. The Brl% is up to 6.4% while the GB% is still way up there at 57%. Since the break he has a 50% GB% and a 13.6% Brl% - so that’s quite good to see if you’re an Elly owner. If he can just get the ball in the air a handful of times a week he’ll be a useful fantasy player with all of those steals that are going to come - but it’s still been a less than fantastic rookie campaign.
It has been a lackluster year for Teoscar Hernandez, but he’s reached a new height in the rolling Brl%. Since 7/9 he has a 21.9% Brl% - but the K% is still way up there at 33% and the OPS is just .517 even over that time.
For the year he is slashing .242/.291/.421 with 16 homers, a 15% Brl%, and a 32% K%. That’s not very good and he’s probably damaged every fantasy team that he ended up on this year, but maybe he’ll finish the year with a garage of homers or something to make up for some of it - beats me.
Multiple Barrels
Carlos Santana (PIT) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Chas McCormick (HOU) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jason Heyward (LAD) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 113.7mph - home_run
George Springer (TOR) - 112.6mph - nan
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 112.3mph - home_run
Juan Soto (SD) - 110.9mph - nan
William Contreras (MIL) - 110.3mph - single
Jake Fraley (CIN) - 110.2mph - single
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) - 109.8mph - single
Taylor Motter (STL) - 109.8mph - single
Spencer Torkelson (DET) - 109.7mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 109.2mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Patrick Bailey - 63 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Will Brennan - 67 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Alex Verdugo - 63 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 72 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Byron Buxton - 74 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 69 PA, 0.33 wOBA, 0.385 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Corey Julks - 67 PA, 0.296 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 89 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 80 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Michael Conforto - 62 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, 0.049 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 84 PA, 0.54 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, -0.166 Diff
Justin Turner - 73 PA, 0.481 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Masataka Yoshida - 66 PA, 0.467 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 67 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Will Benson - 62 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Rafael Devers - 63 PA, 0.472 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 83 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Luke Raley - 63 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.245 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 80 PA, 0.38 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 70 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Edouard Julien - 51 PA, 29 BIP, 9 Brls, 31.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 52 PA, 24 BIP, 7 Brls, 29.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 53 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 56 PA, 41 BIP, 10 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Willy Adames - 69 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Francisco Alvarez - 49 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 55 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 40 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Austin Riley - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Edouard Julien - 51 PA, 0.506 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 72 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 70 PA, 0.467 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 56 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 69 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 44 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 53 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Chas McCormick - 61 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
C.J. Cron - 44 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Wilmer Flores - 52 PA, 84 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 114 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 66 PA, 133 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 58 PA, 86 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 64 PA, 128 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 69 PA, 110 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 54 PA, 82 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 71 PA, 97 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Luis Matos - 49 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 71 PA, 124 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Will Benson - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Willi Castro - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Blake Perkins - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Johan Rojas - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Robert - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Myles Straw - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Luis Garcia - 671277 - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zack Gelof - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Connor Wong - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Willi Castro - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Trea Turner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Tony Kemp - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Wander Franco - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Will Benson - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Bryson Stott - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.