MLB Daily Notes - July 25th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
Robbie Ray came back with a vengeance.
5 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 25.6% SwStr%, 51.2% Strike%
The heater averaged 95.2 miles per hour last night. Last season, it was 92.9. The slider was also up from 85.4 to 89.7. The curveball usage was up from 8% to 17%. So he looked like a different and better pitcher.
Maybe that was just the result of being pumped up to get back on the mound, but man, that’s interesting. It’s also nice to see the pitch count already being near full. The one mark against him was the 41% Ball%. He’s had command issues in the past, so that’s another thing to monitor as we move forward. But he should certainly be owned and started in all leagues, this is a guy with a 19% K-BB% since 2022 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Nathan Eovaldi struck out ten White Sox, scoring 33 fantasy points in seven innings. That was a good bounce-back start after he gave up six earned runs to the Orioles. He’s now at a 24.6% K% and 6.1% BB% on the year, good marks - but short of an elite arm. Given the command and the pedigree, he’s a must-start moving forward.
Hunter Brown put up his third-straight quality start, and his 11th in his last 12 starts. Over these dozen starts:
73 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 26.3% K%, 7.2% BB%,
Those are sparkling numbers, but still pretty mediocre marks here:
46.1% Strike%, 37.3% Ball%, 12.8% SwStr%, .281 BABIP
The schedule has been Charmin-soft. I mean you almost never see stuff like this. Here are these 12 opponents:
LAA, SEA, MIN, LAA, DET, CWS, COL, TOR, MIN, TEX, SEA, OAK
That doesn’t bother me too bad. A 1.08 WHIP is very impressive, no matter who you’re facing. If he starts every fifth game, here’s his schedule for the rest of the year:
PIT, TEX, BOS, CWS, BAL, PHI, KC, ARI, LAA, SD, SEA
Three very soft matchups there, and four pretty tough ones, so a more normal schedule moving forward.
Here’s how Chayce McDermott looked:
Nice to see all of those options to throw at hitters. Enticing a 61% GB%, and a good 13.4% SwStr%. I’m not going to make any real judgments on 82 pitches. The box score result wasn’t very good (4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB), so I don’t know how long he’ll stick in the rotation. I’d veer away from him in redraft fantasy leagues for now.
Cal Quantrill made fun of Reese McGuire for getting caught pulling his gold in a Florida parking lot a couple of years ago. That’s very unkind and really embarrassing for McGuire. I feel bad for him. But yeah, the lesson to be learned here is don’t yank it in public like that.
The Rockies lineup pleasured Quantrill with 21 hits and 20 runs scored. That evened his record at 7-7 and took his ERA to a competitive 4.09. Good for that guy.
Gerrit Cole got hit around
5.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 6.0% SwStr%
The fastball velocity has come back down in two straight starts now after peaking right before the break.
For the season, it’s a concerning 11.6% SwStr%.
The fastball hasn’t been the same.
Gerrit Cole Four-Seam Fastball
2023: 96.7mph, 11.7% SwStr%, 54% Strike%, 55.3% Zone%, 125 Stuff+
2024: 95.9mph, 10.6% SwStr%, 52% Strike%, 56.9% Zone%, 115 Stuff+
It is not as though Cole is fully reliant on his fastball. He has a cutter, a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. But any decline in the four-seamer performance hurts. We should keep a close eye on him.
Tyler Glasnow returned and threw 91 pitches. So it’s good that he’s right back in the swing of things. The bad news is that it was one of his worst outings, he had just a 4:4 K:BB in five innings.
I’d imagine he’ll snap right back into ace form, it’s gotta be tough to sit out for three weeks like that and then get right back into form.
Hitter Review
We have seven Magic Formula Qualifiers for the full month of July:
Francisco Lindor: 14% K%, 18.5% Brl%
Jarren Duran: 19% K%, 14.1% Brl%
Juan Soto: 13% K%, 26.2% Brl%
Brenton Doyle: 19% K%, 21.4% Brl%
Brent Rooker: 18% K% 23.5% Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr.: 14% K%, 18.6% Brl%
Jurickson Profar: 14% K%, 14.5% Brl%
The plot:
Ben Rice has fallen from grace. He now has a 26% K% and a .721 OPS in his 114 PAs. The six homers and 20.3% Brl% are nice, so maybe he’ll still be a useful power bat, but it’s not looking like he’ll be a guy with a good batting average (.258 xAVG - and that’s falling fast as the strikeouts pile up).
And then you see the very high strikeout rates of Shohei Ohtani and Austin Riley there.
Ohtani has a 36% K% in July, but still holds a .968 OPS in this time with four homers.
Your top 10 OPS marks in July:
Witt Jr. 1.423
Butler 1.408
Rooker 1.351
Doyle 1.337
T Turner 1.165
Soto 1.155
Keith 1.114
Lindor 1.085
Devers 1.052
Reynolds 1.044
It’s almost like Butler and Rooker can sniff their chance to escape Oakland.
I’ve got a lot of stuff to do today, and we’re traveling tomorrow so I won’t be able to write much between tomorrow and Sunday, so I’m going to get to work!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Robbie Ray
2. Nathan Eovaldi
3. Hunter Brown
4. Allan Winans
5. Zach Eflin
6. Tanner Bibee
7. Jack Flaherty
8. Edward Cabrera
9. Aaron Nola
10. Chayce McDermott
11. Griffin Canning
12. Yariel Rodriguez
13. Cal Quantrill
14. Matthew Liberatore
15. Frankie Montas
16. Matt Waldron
17. Luis Castillo
18. Tyler Glasnow
19. Sean Manaea
20. JP Sears
21. Justin Steele
22. Martin Perez
23. Mitchell Parker
24. Gerrit Cole
25. Chris Flexen
26. Ryne Nelson
27. Michael Wacha
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. CWS): 33.35 Points
2. Robbie Ray (vs. LAD): 28.05 Points
3. Hunter Brown (vs. OAK): 26.1 Points
4. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. LAA): 23.3 Points
5. Jack Flaherty (vs. CLE): 22.5 Points
6. Yariel Rodriguez (vs. TB): 18.96 Points
7. David Festa (vs. PHI): 18.14 Points
8. Aaron Nola (vs. MIN): 18.1 Points
9. Griffin Canning (vs. SEA): 17.05 Points
10. Martin Perez (vs. STL): 16.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Robbie Ray (SF): 22 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
2. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 20 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Hunter Brown (HOU): 19 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Jack Flaherty (DET): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Griffin Canning (LAA): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. Aaron Nola (PHI): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Zach Eflin (TB): 11 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
9. Sean Manaea (NYM): 11 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
10. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 11 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 52.6 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
2. Allan Winans (ATL): 52.3 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
3. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 52.0 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
4. Grant Holmes (ATL): 51.9 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
5. Zach Eflin (TB): 51.8 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
6. Robbie Ray (SF): 51.2 Strike%, 40.7 Ball%
7. Frankie Montas (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
8. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 49.4 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
9. David Festa (MIN): 49.3 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
10. Luis Castillo (SEA): 49.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
11. Aaron Nola (PHI): 48.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
12. Justin Steele (CHC): 48.0 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
13. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 47.9 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
14. Griffin Canning (LAA): 47.9 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
15. Matthew Liberatore (STL): 47.8 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yariel Rodriguez: 73 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.29 POUT
2. Tanner Bibee: 67 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.47 POUT
3. Cal Quantrill: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
4. Nathan Eovaldi: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
5. Matt Waldron: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
6. Ryne Nelson: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Zach Eflin: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Martin Perez: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. JP Sears: 82 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.12 POUT
10. Jack Flaherty: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's FC velo (22 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 91.2
Robbie Ray's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 89.7
Sean Manaea's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 85.7
Michael Wacha's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 94.6
Justin Steele's FF velo (67 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.2
Nick Pivetta's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 92.8
Nick Pivetta's ST velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 81.3
Cal Quantrill's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 78.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Edward Cabrera's SI usage (20.0%) up 10.4 points
Gerrit Cole's SL usage (30.0%) up 10.2 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (28.9%) up 21.9 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (27.8%) up 21.6 points
Matthew Liberatore's FC usage (18.8%) up 13.7 points
Nick Pivetta's FF usage (60.5%) up 10.3 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (25.0%) up 13.0 points
Tyler Glasnow's SI usage (27.5%) up 23.4 points
Yariel Rodriguez's FF usage (57.5%) up 12.0 points
Zach Eflin's SI usage (49.4%) up 17.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.0%
Logan Webb Changeup: -17.9%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +16.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +15.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.9%
Tobias Myers Slider: +14.9%
Blake Snell Curveball: +14.5%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -14.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Drew Thorpe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Joe Ryan Sinker: +13.8%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +13.2%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +13.0%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +12.8%
Jonathan Cannon Sweeper: -12.6%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 76 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Michael King - 68 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 91 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 41.4% K%
Nick Pivetta - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 36.5% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 91 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 79 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 74 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 68 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Jose Quintana - 99 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
David Peterson - 68 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Michael Wacha - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Beau Brieske - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 62 TBF, 27.4 K%, 1.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Carson Fulmer - 54 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.6% GB%
George Kirby - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 59.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Mitchell Parker: 7.89 ERA, 3.97 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 6.4 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.18 ERA, 2.84 SIERA
Ranger Suarez: 7.33 ERA, 4.15 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 6.41 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 5.47 ERA, 2.7 SIERA
Joe Ryan: 5.34 ERA, 2.98 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.29 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 7.84 ERA, 5.57 SIERA
Mitch Spence: 6.66 ERA, 4.4 SIERA
Luckiest
Andrew Abbott: 2.54 ERA, 6.04 SIERA
David Peterson: 2.42 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Andrew Heaney: 1.98 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 2.5 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.51 ERA, 4.23 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.86 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.17 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.82 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 3.62 ERA, 4.73 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 3.65 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tarik Skubal - +6.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +6.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Brayan Bello - +7.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tyler Anderson - +3.9% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +4.6% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Bryce Elder - +8.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 6 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Will Brennan, Yesterday: 109.0 Previous High: 108.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 113.5mph - single
James Wood (WSH) - 113.1mph - nan
Luis Robert (CWS) - 113.0mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 112.9mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.9mph - double
James Wood (WSH) - 111.2mph - field_out
Juan Soto (NYY) - 110.9mph - home_run
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 110.2mph - nan
Eugenio Suarez (ARI) - 110.1mph - home_run
Brendan Rodgers (COL) - 109.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jorge Polanco - 67 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, 0.126 Diff
Jake Meyers - 79 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Trent Grisham - 62 PA, 0.302 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Ben Rice - 79 PA, 0.329 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 76 PA, 0.232 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Andrew Vaughn - 72 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Bryson Stott - 68 PA, 0.223 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Taylor Ward - 79 PA, 0.206 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 62 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Bottom 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.62 wOBA, 0.487 xwOBA, -0.133 Diff
Trea Turner - 83 PA, 0.495 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Max Schuemann - 68 PA, 0.456 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 72 PA, 0.578 wOBA, 0.477 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Colt Keith - 75 PA, 0.469 wOBA, 0.379 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Juan Yepez - 63 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 79 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 65 PA, 0.429 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 90 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 62 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
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