MLB Daily Notes - July 26th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Trade Deadline Update
Check out the podcast feed for two recent episodes where I cover some of the big names that are likely to be moved in the next five days. Things got started late last night.
A.J. Puk to Arizona
Makes sense for the Snakes, who are in the Wild Card mix and have seen some struggles in the back of their bullpen. Paul Sewald has a 3.70 ERA with a much lower 23.7% K% this year. They sent this guy:
And this guy:
To Arizona for Puk. That seems like a nice return for the Marlins. De Los Santos ist just 21 and ripping bombs in AA-AAA (half of his 28 homers at each level).
Randy Arozarena to Seattle
It’s surprising to me that this happened so early. Randy was one of the big names on the market, so I expected the Rays to wait it out and really led the bidding war develop. But maybe that’s now how this stuff works. But I mean, you don’t bid your final offer until the last second in an auction, right?
The Rays got Aidan Smith, who has done this in A ball this year :
And they also added Brody Hopkins, another A ball player:
Neither were in the top ten prospects for the Mariners, so this was a surprisingly low return. But the Rays must see something in those two.
The thing probably prohibiting a lot of small market teams was Randy’s contract. He’s making $8.1 million this year and will hit arbitration next year. He’s also just not all that great. He’s had some big moments in the postseason, but his career .787 OPS makes him a good player instead of a very good one.
So it has begun, and many more trades are to come!
Pitcher Review
Dylan Cease’s no-hitter:
Most no-no’s won’t have elite numbers in the strike stuff, because they will have given up a fair amount of balls in play in the form of quick outs. That’s just what you have to do these days to get 27 outs in the allotted number of pitches you have. This was one of the more impressive no-hitters you’ll see, though, with the nine strikeouts and 16.7% SwStr%. The 75% GB% certainly helped. The three walks makes it less impressive, and the fact that we typically 3-5 of these per year makes them less special.
The more important note is that Cease is entering the Cy Young conversation.
That ERA was 4.21 after his 19th start, and the WHIP was 1.10. So he’s rapidly improved his numbers. Good job by Cease, and good job by the Padres buying him.
The other big pitching development of the day was Max Scherzer looking awesome:
6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, 20 whiffs, 23.5% SwStr%, 60% Strike%
Oh baby! You don’t see many 60% strike rates. That’s really, really high. Only the 21st of the season:
Here’s the pitch mix from yesterday:
The four-seamer was still relatively slow, but it worked amazingly well, and the slider has been dominant from the jump. That brings his season K-BB% to 18%, and you have to be feeling pretty good about him if he’s on your fantasy squad.
Pretty good stuff from Clayton Kershaw under the hood. He gave up six hits in four innings, so it wasn’t a useful fantasy start, but the stuff was there:
Elite 20.8% SwStr% led by the slider. The fastball was not good at a 25% Strike%, and the velocity has been under 91 for a few years now. It’s good to see the velocity wasn’t down further, but it’s tough to be really effective late into games when you only have one good pitch. But it’s Kershaw, he’s never in his career had an extended period of being bad, so I doubt it’ll happen this year.
I’m taking the family for a weekend trip back to Pittsburgh, so I’ve gotta get moving. The content will be light for a few days, have a good weekend!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer
2. Dylan Cease
3. Taj Bradley
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Chris Sale
6. Gavin Williams
7. Corbin Burnes
8. Chris Bassitt
9. Logan Webb
10. Luis Severino
11. Patrick Corbin
12. Kenny Rosenberg
13. Jonathan Cannon
14. Ross Stripling
15. Roddery Munoz
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (vs. WSH): 40.45 Points
2. Max Scherzer (vs. CWS): 31.1 Points
3. Taj Bradley (vs. TOR): 29.7 Points
4. Chris Sale (vs. NYM): 28.69 Points
5. Gavin Williams (vs. DET): 20.7 Points
6. Patrick Corbin (vs. SD): 19.55 Points
7. Corbin Burnes (vs. MIA): 16.29 Points
8. Jose Butto (vs. ATL): 14.75 Points
9. Luis Severino (vs. ATL): 13.85 Points
10. Chris Bassitt (vs. TB): 13.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (TEX): 20 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
2. Dylan Cease (SD): 19 Whiffs (114 Pitches)
3. Gavin Williams (CLE): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 15 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
6. Chris Sale (ATL): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
7. Taj Bradley (TB): 13 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
8. Luis Severino (NYM): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
9. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
10. Logan Webb (SF): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (TEX): 60.0 Strike%, 27.1 Ball%
2. Gavin Williams (CLE): 59.0 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
3. Chris Sale (ATL): 56.4 Strike%, 29.8 Ball%
4. Taj Bradley (TB): 51.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
5. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 49.5 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
6. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 48.6 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
7. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 48.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
8. Dylan Cease (SD): 48.2 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
9. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 44.8 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
10. Luis Severino (NYM): 44.2 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
11. Logan Webb (SF): 42.7 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
12. Kenny Rosenberg (LAA): 41.5 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
13. Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 40.0 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
14. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 39.6 Strike%, 40.7 Ball%
15. Ross Stripling (OAK): 37.7 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes: 96 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.36 POUT
2. Dylan Cease: 114 Pitches, 26 Outs, 4.38 POUT
3. Chris Sale: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
4. Ross Stripling: 77 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.53 POUT
5. Taj Bradley: 83 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.61 POUT
6. Max Scherzer: 85 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Patrick Corbin: 109 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.19 POUT
8. Jonathan Cannon: 95 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.59 POUT
9. Gavin Williams: 105 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.83 POUT
10. Logan Webb: 89 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.93 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Gavin Williams's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 3.5mph to 88.6
Dylan Cease's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 83.2
Dylan Cease's SL velo (60 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 89.1
Dylan Cease's FF velo (44 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 98.3
Gavin Williams's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.2
Chris Bassitt's ST velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 75.3
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -5.3mph to 74.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Corbin Burnes's CU usage (31.2%) up 12.0 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (52.6%) up 10.8 points
Max Scherzer's SL usage (31.8%) up 12.1 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (37.6%) up 29.6 points
Roddery Munoz's SI usage (36.3%) up 12.6 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (30.1%) up 17.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.0%
Patrick Corbin Cutter: +20.8%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +16.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +15.0%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.9%
Tobias Myers Slider: +14.9%
Blake Snell Curveball: +14.5%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -14.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Drew Thorpe 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Joe Ryan Sinker: +13.8%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +13.2%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +13.0%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +12.8%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 76 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 79 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 36.5% K%
Nick Pivetta - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 79 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Quintana - 71 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 68 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
David Peterson - 68 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Michael Wacha - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 80 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Taj Bradley - 95 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Alec Marsh - 49 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Beau Brieske - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 62 TBF, 27.4 K%, 1.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Carson Fulmer - 54 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 48.6% GB%
George Kirby - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 79 TBF, 34.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 59.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Mitchell Parker: 7.89 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 6.4 ERA, 3.0 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.18 ERA, 2.85 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 5.47 ERA, 2.67 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.29 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Kyle Gibson: 5.84 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
Logan Webb: 5.7 ERA, 3.89 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 6.66 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Frankie Montas: 6.33 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 6.41 ERA, 5.09 SIERA
Luckiest
Andrew Abbott: 2.54 ERA, 6.04 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 0.28 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.86 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.51 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Brady Singer: 2.17 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 2.57 ERA, 3.9 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 3.62 ERA, 4.74 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 3.65 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 3.45 ERA, 4.49 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 3.0 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tarik Skubal - +6.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +6.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Brayan Bello - +7.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Tyler Anderson - +3.9% CSW%, -6.4 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +4.6% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Sonny Gray - +4.3% CSW%, -6.9 BB%
Carson Fulmer - +4.1% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Kyle Freeland - +3.4% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Bryce Elder - +8.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Anthony Santander (BAL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brent Rooker (OAK) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Javier Baez (DET) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Austin Riley (ATL) - 114.7mph - double
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.6mph - home_run
Logan O'Hoppe (LAA) - 111.5mph - single
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 111.0mph - home_run
Nacho Alvarez (ATL) - 109.6mph - field_out
Thairo Estrada (SF) - 109.5mph - nan
Brandon Lowe (TB) - 109.5mph - home_run
Josh Bell (MIA) - 109.5mph - field_out
Wyatt Langford (TEX) - 109.1mph - double_play
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 109.0mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jorge Polanco - 63 PA, 0.267 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Jake Meyers - 74 PA, 0.234 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Andrew Vaughn - 70 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Jordan Westburg - 75 PA, 0.268 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Brice Turang - 75 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 0.213 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 73 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Ben Rice - 74 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Adolis Garcia - 74 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Taylor Ward - 79 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Bottom 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 74 PA, 0.608 wOBA, 0.483 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Trea Turner - 78 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 75 PA, 0.587 wOBA, 0.472 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Max Schuemann - 72 PA, 0.456 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Brenton Doyle - 79 PA, 0.552 wOBA, 0.451 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 77 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 61 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 67 PA, 0.402 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 82 PA, 0.417 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Juan Yepez - 66 PA, 0.427 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, -0.077 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Ben Rice - 64 PA, 34 BIP, 10 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 39 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.2 Brl%
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 52 BIP, 14 Brls, 26.9 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 69 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 52 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Austin Riley - 62 PA, 31 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.8 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 64 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 53 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Jose Siri - 50 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Mark Vientos - 62 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Francisco Lindor - 81 PA, 0.508 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.507 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 67 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 69 PA, 0.496 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 61 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Lawrence Butler - 63 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 65 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 65 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 128 Swings, 94.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 108 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 60 PA, 104 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 54 PA, 101 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Nolan Arenado - 66 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 46 PA, 74 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 68 PA, 131 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Nolan Schanuel - 66 PA, 101 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Xavier Edwards - 66 PA, 109 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 50 PA, 67 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Lane Thomas - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Victor Robles - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jacob Young - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Mike Siani - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Richie Palacios - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jo Adell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 16 Attempts (14 steals)
Lane Thomas - 15 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Luis Robert - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Zach Neto - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Max Schuemann - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
David Hamilton - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Victor Robles - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
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