MLB Daily Notes - July 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Prop bet trackers:
Super late day of baseball today so I’m going to take it easy. I do have a good post to write up later today concerning the hot hitter tracker, and whether or not it actually predicts short-term improved performance. So check back for that this afternoon.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Added a “Line” column to the Yesterdays Pitching Stats sheet. This is probably my most-used resource outside of the Tableau Dashboards. check it out:
Paid subs have access to this, the link is below the paywall and in the resource glossary.
We can see there that Freddy Peralta went off. It was only the 16th time all year that a pitcher has gone 11+ strikeouts with no walks:
He ripped strikes off at a crazy high rate at 58.4%, and the 9% BIP% was just absurd. A BIP% under 10% has happened only 66 times this year, so it was just a magnificent start from Peralta.
The four-seam and slider were just deadly. That’s one of the best starts I’ve seen this year. Good for him! It also shows you a little bit of the floor that Reds lineup has with all of those young guys that are still getting acquainted with Major League pitching.
Sandy Alcantara also had a great start with the old complete game. He had an elite 19.6% SwStr% and he did hardly throwing anything outside of the strike zone with a 24 Ball%. That was the 22nd-lowest Ball% of the season for an SP.
Sandy by month:
Apr: 16% SwStr%, 46% Strike%, 21% K%, 7% BB%, .335 xwOBA, 5.34 ERA
May: 14% SwStr%, 49% Strike%, 20% K%, 9.5% BB%, .301 xwOBA, 4.85 ERA
Jun: 13% SwStr%, 48% Strike%, 17% K%, 4% BB%, .317 xwOBA, 4.59 ERA
Jul: 15% SwStr%, 50% Strike%, 22% K%, 4% BB%, .326 xwOBA, 3.31 ERA
So he’s been pretty steady for the most part this year, although you do see that the walk rate has been back down under 5% since June. That didn’t help him much in June with the still bad ERA, but in July things have come through a lot better. I still don’t think he’s in the ace tier, but he should have more good starts than bad - and yesterday was a good one.
Seth Lugo has made seven starts since returning from the IL
13.3% SwStr%, 47.4% Strike%, 25.6% K%, 3.1% BB%, .292 xwOBA, 46% GB%
That’s pretty good. Here’s the pitch mix since returning:
Throwing that good curveball of his a lot, and it’s working. The four-seamer has been above average as well. It hasn’t been a particularly tough schedule for him since returning, however (SF, CIN, LAA, PHI, DET, PIT) - so maybe the stats are inflated because of that. But he’s someone that may be available on waivers and he appears to be better than that.
Johan Oviedo had another good start, but it’s been an up-and-down season for him.
His pitch mix is pretty enticing, as I’ve mentioned before. He has a really high SwStr% on his slider and a pretty good mark on his four-seamer as well. The 14% SwStr% overall is good, and the 46% GB% is pretty encouraging as well. I think there could be a bright future for him if the Pirates can finally figure out how to get something out of a young talented arm.
Lance Lynn has gone back to his poopiness. Seven more earned runs on his tab last night with a 5:2 K:BB and a high 37% Ball%. The SwStr% was at 14%, which is fine, but he clearly has problems. I’ve been super high on him figuring it out all year and I’ve been paying dearly for that.
For the year he has an elite 15.7% SwStr% and a good 18.6% K-BB%, but the .331 xwOBA has been killing him and it just won’t stop. Until it stops, which it still might.
Let’s split Zac Gallen’s season in half and check it out
First Half:
11 GS, 13.5% SwStr%, 47.6% Strike%, 27.8% K%, 5.3% BB%, .294 xwOBA
Second Half:
11 GS, 13.5% SwStr%, 46.5% Strike%, 24.2% K%, 5.0% BB%, .311 xwOBA
He had a 2.97 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in those first 11 and a 3.73 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in the next 11. I think he’s closer to the second-half guy than the first-half guy. He’s never been a very high whiff guy which means to me he’ll be a mid-20s K% guy, which is what we’re seeing more recently.
Carlos Rodon hasn’t been good, at least not yet. In his four starts:
13.4% SwStr%
43.3% Strike%
38.3% Ball%
16.7% K%
13.3% BB%
We have never seen anything close to a 17% K% from Rodon, so he’s either still hurt or (more likely) just still getting his bearings in the Majors. The Ball% and BB% is very high, and that’s also quite uncommon for him - so here’s hoping he’s about to find the groove or whatever you might want to call it.
Brayan Bello somewhat survived the Braves, giving up three runs in six innings (they all came in the sixth on a three-run homer to Albies), but the underlying numbers were bad with a 10.9% SwStr%, a 39.1% Strike%, and a 42.4% Ball% to generate a bad 4:2 K:BB. Not good stuff there, and he’s been pretty disappointing lately. The strikeouts have been going down instead of up, but the GB% is still nice and he doesn’t get squared up very often. I think he’ll be okay, but I would say that I was wrong leading up to this point about how good I thought he could be this year.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (vs. CIN): 37.1 Points
2. Sandy Alcantara (vs. TB): 32.65 Points
3. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. LAD): 26.1 Points
4. Spencer Strider (vs. BOS): 26.04 Points
5. Seth Lugo (vs. PIT): 25.95 Points
6. Johan Oviedo (vs. SD): 21.9 Points
7. Carlos Rodon (vs. NYM): 18.56 Points
8. Gavin Williams (vs. KC): 16.0 Points
9. Peter Lambert (vs. WSH): 15.1 Points
10. Zac Gallen (vs. STL): 14.84 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 24 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 19 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 16 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Bryce Miller (SEA): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Jake Irvin (WSH): 15 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
6. Gavin Williams (CLE): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
7. Joe Ryan (MIN): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Seth Lugo (SD): 15 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
9. Lance Lynn (CWS): 14 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
10. Spencer Strider (ATL): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 58.4 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 54.7 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
3. Spencer Strider (ATL): 53.8 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
4. Gavin Williams (CLE): 52.9 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
5. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 51.5 Strike%, 23.7 Ball%
6. Zac Gallen (ARI): 51.0 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
7. Hogan Harris (OAK): 51.0 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
8. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 50.5 Strike%, 35.0 Ball%
9. Jake Irvin (WSH): 50.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 47.3 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
11. Lance Lynn (CWS): 47.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
12. Jose Quintana (NYM): 45.7 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
13. Bryce Miller (SEA): 45.7 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
14. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 45.6 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
15. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 45.6 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Zac Gallen's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.5
Gavin Williams's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.6
Johan Oviedo's SI velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 94.7
Marcus Stroman's SV velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.2
Yusei Kikuchi's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's SI usage (30.3%) up 10.3 points
Bryce Miller's SL usage (33.7%) up 13.8 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (25.0%) up 10.7 points
Jake Irvin's FF usage (74.3%) up 39.9 points
Jose Quintana's CU usage (30.9%) up 15.3 points
Marcus Stroman's SI usage (60.0%) up 14.4 points
Peter Lambert's FF usage (57.7%) up 13.4 points
Ranger Suarez's CH usage (30.0%) up 13.0 points
Seth Lugo's SI usage (28.6%) up 11.9 points
Zach Eflin's FC usage (47.2%) up 18.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -25.6%
Jon Gray Slider: +21.7%
Luis Medina Sinker: +20.8%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +20.5%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.4%
Michael Grove Cutter: +19.3%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -17.4%
Colin Rea Cutter: +14.4%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Michael Grove Slider: -13.4%
Brandon Bielak Sinker: -13.0%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.8%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +12.5%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 71 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 38.0% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Domingo German - 73 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 72 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Hogan Harris - 81 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 73 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Julio Urias - 97 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 44.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Domingo German - 73 TBF, 37.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 36.1% K%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
Steven Matz - 82 TBF, 30.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 41.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Domingo German - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 77 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 64.5% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 73 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Brayan Bello - 68 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 102 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 113 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 103 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Justin Steele - 55 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.6 BB%, 56.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 1.5 BB%, 57.8% GB%
Luis Medina - 66 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Nick Pivetta - 61 TBF, 44.3 K%, 6.6 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 52 TBF, 30.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Steven Matz - 82 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 52 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 32.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 64.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Gibson - +3.4% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Spencer Strider - +3.5% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Seth Lugo - +2.9% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.2% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +4.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.6% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Justin Steele - +4.5% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +3.5% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +5.1% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.8% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jose Quintana - +3.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Logan Allen - +4.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Hitters
Ji-Man Choi now leads the league in HR/PA, but that’s only if you limit the PA minimum to 65 or more. He has six homers in 67 PA, that’s one every 11.1 PA. He has done almost nothing else though with a .188 batting average. But he’ll hit some dingers, it would seem - so you can go grab him as a 1B option in deep leagues if you need some pop.
Another guy to seriously consider is this Matt Wallner character. He slashed .291/.403/.524 in the minors to get his call-up to the Majors, and since then he’s slashing .294/.419/.569 in the Majors. He has a 17.6% Brl% with a 27% K% in the Majors. That’s better than his AAA marks of a 13% Brl% and a 28% K% - but it’s not too far off. I think he can be a real useful fantasy option. I’m not saying he will be, but the talent seems to be there and he’s been smoking the ball all year long, so I think he’s a good add right now.
We have another Nolan Gorman wave going:
He has a 21.7% Brl% and a 32% K% in July with a .994 OPS. This is who the guy is. He hits so many fly balls and swings so hard that he’s just bound to hit homers, and often time they’ll get bunched up like this. If he’s ever going through a spell with a good K% - he’s going to be a must-start guy, but it’s impossible to know when that will happen. I can’t sit here and say there that his rolling K% chart will have another wave like the last three in it at the end of the year, that’s not the way this works! But if you’ve just held your nose and started him all year, you’ve benefited overall - and there’s a good lesson to learn there. Don’t play the hot/cold stuff, just take the good with the bad and either start these types of guys every day or never.
And is Julio Rodriguez set up for an elite fantasy second half? Who knows, but probably!
He has just a 24% K% in July with an .854 OPS. For the year he’s slashing .250/.310/.427 with 17 HR and 23 SB. He’s clearly set up for a 20/30 season, and quite possibly a 25/40 season - which would be quite fantastic, but he’s definitely fallen short of the top-three pick you paid for him - but it’s not out of the picture to think he can’t make most of that up here in the last two months.
Triston Casas homered off of Spencer Strider last night, and man has he been good lately. He’s on the MFQ right now, so let’s take a look! This really all started in June, so going back to June 1st:
.308/.406/.586, 9 HR, 15.2% Brl%, 21.9% K%, 14% BB%, .399 xwOBA
He joins only Corey Seager and Rafael Devers since June as hitters with a Brl% above 15% and a K% below 23%. I drew a picture for you:
Austin Riley and Matt Olson are the other dots circled without being labeled. Casas might just be one of the best hitters in the league! And if you’ve read these daily notes all year, you probably have him on your team! Unless you’re in my league, because I grabbed him before I started writing about him all the time.
Multiple Barrels
Ji-Man Choi (PIT) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Wallner (MIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 113.1mph - double
Jake Burger (CWS) - 111.6mph - home_run
Sam Huff (TEX) - 110.7mph - home_run
Jordan Diaz (OAK) - 110.7mph - field_out
Taylor Motter (STL) - 110.7mph - field_out
MJ Melendez (KC) - 110.4mph - home_run
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 110.4mph - home_run
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 110.3mph - nan
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.0mph - field_out
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 109.7mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Mike Yastrzemski - 60 PA, 0.241 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 75 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 71 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.274 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Will Brennan - 67 PA, 0.225 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Patrick Bailey - 63 PA, 0.193 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Wander Franco - 78 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 90 PA, 0.227 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Byron Buxton - 65 PA, 0.228 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Corey Julks - 71 PA, 0.273 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 86 PA, 0.328 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Jarren Duran - 60 PA, 0.482 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.187 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 65 PA, 0.518 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Masataka Yoshida - 67 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Alek Thomas - 59 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.213 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 86 PA, 0.501 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Will Benson - 62 PA, 0.416 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 77 PA, 0.416 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Luke Raley - 61 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.234 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Rafael Devers - 63 PA, 0.466 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 86 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 51 PA, 23 BIP, 7 Brls, 30.4 Brl%
Edouard Julien - 56 PA, 34 BIP, 10 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Corey Seager - 47 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 60 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 59 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 50 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 70 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Triston Casas - 50 PA, 0.488 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 70 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 67 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 47 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 51 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Edouard Julien - 56 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Manny Machado - 71 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 60 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 59 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Adolis Garcia - 58 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 75 PA, 106 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 54 PA, 79 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Luis Matos - 53 PA, 77 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Wilmer Flores - 55 PA, 91 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 65 PA, 135 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 67 PA, 111 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 54 PA, 83 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 63 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Justin Turner - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 59 PA, 107 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Willi Castro - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Seiya Suzuki - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jarren Duran - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
Willi Castro - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Luis Robert - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Tony Kemp - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
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