MLB Daily Notes - July 27th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Trade Deadline Update
The big one yesterday was Zach Eflin to the Orioles. If I’m a Birds fan, I might actually be a little bit turned off by that, because I’d be wondering if that wasn’t all they’re going to do in the SP market. They gave up three prospects for Eflin. I don’t think any of them were big names, and Eflin frankly isn’t worth all that much, so they probably weren’t. The O’s, you would think, would really be in the market for an ace SP to add to their rotation and solidify themselves as World Series favorites. There’s probably more to come from them, but it’s possible that they think Eflin gets them to where they need to be.
The Rays are clearly focused on selling off the assets that aren’t helping them this year. Randy and Eflin are gone quickly. The Rays must just have gotten the offers they had in mind for those types and pulled the trigger before anything got screwed up. There’s some wisdom in that. You don’t always have to grind out until the last minute trying to make a few extra pennies on your endeavors, take what’s fair, and move on to the next thing.
This is good advice for fantasy sports to. And the best way to not regret a fantasy trade is to immediately forget it happened.
Yimi Garcia went to the Mariners. That makes the Blue Jays saves situation easier to navigate - Chad Green seems to be the guy you want there.
James Paxton is back with the Red Sox, but he’s very bad, and now the Dodgers’ magic pixie dust won’t be with him.
Pitcher Review
Kodai Senga returned and was dominating before leaving the game with a calf injury. He had struck out nine in 5.1 innings.
The fastball velo was there, the forkball was nasty, and he was even throwing strikes. A 29% Ball% is completely unheard of from him (39% last year). Really impressive stuff, but now he’s hurt again and might go right back on the IL.
Kyle Harrison took big advantage of the road Rockies matchup.
6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 2 BB
The SwStr% spiked to 14.2%, but the Strike% was a bit lower than I’d have imagined given the 11 punchouts at 52%, but that’s still a really good number.
For the season, he has just an 11.1% SwStr% and 46% Strike%, so he’s not been great.
Shane Baz got the whiffs going, which we needed to see.
Also a lot of ground balls yesterday, although I don’t think that’s going to be who he is with the four-seamer and slider being thrown nearly 70% of the time.
It’s finally confirmed that Max Meyer is back in the Marlins rotation, and he’s starting today. So you can pick him up if you’re looking for an upside arm.
Okay, as I said yesterday, I’m away for the weekend, so I don’t have much time for writing. On to the automated stuff.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez
2. Kodai Senga
3. Zac Gallen
4. Shane Baz
5. Pablo Lopez
6. Sonny Gray
7. Kyle Harrison
8. Nick Lodolo
9. Yusei Kikuchi
10. Gavin Stone
11. Andrew Heaney
12. Kyle Freeland
13. George Kirby
14. Brady Singer
15. Grayson Rodriguez
16. Carson Fulmer
17. Ben Lively
18. Charlie Morton
19. Luis L. Ortiz
20. Freddy Peralta
21. Brayan Bello
22. Nestor Cortes
23. Keider Montero
24. Cristopher Sanchez
25. MacKenzie Gore
26. Trevor Rogers
27. Kyle Hendricks
28. Paul Blackburn
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Harrison (vs. COL): 37.21 Points
2. Framber Valdez (vs. LAD): 34.64 Points
3. George Kirby (vs. CWS): 29.55 Points
4. Kodai Senga (vs. ATL): 28.19 Points
5. Brady Singer (vs. CHC): 27.35 Points
6. Pablo Lopez (vs. DET): 25.55 Points
7. Ben Lively (vs. PHI): 24.5 Points
8. Shane Baz (vs. CIN): 21.1 Points
9. Zac Gallen (vs. PIT): 18.7 Points
10. Nick Lodolo (vs. TB): 17.41 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Zac Gallen (ARI): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
3. Sonny Gray (STL): 15 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
4. Kyle Harrison (SF): 15 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
5. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 14 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
6. Gavin Stone (LAD): 13 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Shane Baz (TB): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Kodai Senga (NYM): 12 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
9. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 11 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
10. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 11 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kodai Senga (NYM): 58.9 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
2. Framber Valdez (HOU): 54.2 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
3. Kyle Harrison (SF): 51.9 Strike%, 38.7 Ball%
4. Kyle Freeland (COL): 51.8 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
5. Shane Baz (TB): 51.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
6. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 50.5 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
7. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT): 50.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 49.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
9. Zac Gallen (ARI): 48.0 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
10. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 46.9 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
11. George Kirby (SEA): 46.6 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
12. Brady Singer (KC): 46.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
13. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 46.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
14. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 45.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
15. Ben Lively (CLE): 45.6 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
2. Carson Fulmer: 77 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.53 POUT
3. Kodai Senga: 73 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.56 POUT
4. Pablo Lopez: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Nick Lodolo: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
6. Brady Singer: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
7. Shane Baz: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
8. Cristopher Sanchez: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
9. Ben Lively: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Paul Blackburn: 72 Pitches, 14 Outs, 5.14 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nestor Cortes's ST velo (15 pitches) UP 3.3mph to 80.7
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.4
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (21 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.8
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 91.1
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.9
Brayan Bello's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.3
Cristopher Sanchez's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.1
Andrew Heaney's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 83.5
Kodai Senga's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.3
Freddy Peralta's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.7
Grayson Rodriguez's FF velo (53 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.2
Kyle Harrison's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.9
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brady Singer's SI usage (58.6%) up 12.3 points
Brayan Bello's SI usage (52.5%) up 14.2 points
Carson Fulmer's FF usage (36.4%) up 17.8 points
George Kirby's SI usage (36.4%) up 13.9 points
Jared Shuster's SL usage (41.2%) up 11.1 points
Kyle Freeland's SL usage (42.2%) up 18.8 points
Kyle Harrison's SV usage (34.0%) up 12.4 points
Nick Lodolo's FF usage (55.9%) up 10.5 points
Sonny Gray's FC usage (25.6%) up 10.5 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (62.5%) up 15.6 points
Zac Gallen's CU usage (36.3%) up 12.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.0%
Patrick Corbin Cutter: +20.8%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -17.0%
Kyle Freeland 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +16.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.9%
Tobias Myers Slider: +14.9%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Blake Snell Curveball: +14.5%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -14.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Joe Ryan Sinker: +13.8%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Joey Estes Sweeper: +13.6%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +13.3%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +13.2%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -13.1%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 97 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Nick Pivetta - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 31.2% K%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Luis Gil - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Kyle Freeland - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Quintana - 71 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 75 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 76 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
David Peterson - 68 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Michael Wacha - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 80 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 91 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Taj Bradley - 95 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alec Marsh - 49 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Beau Brieske - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 62 TBF, 27.4 K%, 1.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
George Kirby - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.1 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 52 TBF, 36.5 K%, 1.9 BB%, 64.5% GB%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 78 TBF, 34.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Mitchell Parker: 7.89 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Sonny Gray: 6.67 ERA, 2.82 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.68 ERA, 2.85 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 6.4 ERA, 3.0 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 8.27 ERA, 5.1 SIERA
Nestor Cortes: 7.23 ERA, 4.3 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 5.47 ERA, 2.67 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.29 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Griffin Canning: 6.66 ERA, 4.89 SIERA
Frankie Montas: 6.33 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Luckiest
Andrew Abbott: 2.54 ERA, 6.04 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 0.28 ERA, 3.02 SIERA
Brady Singer: 1.88 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.51 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 3.34 ERA, 4.82 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 2.57 ERA, 3.9 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 3.6 ERA, 4.76 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 3.0 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Andrew Heaney: 2.63 ERA, 3.57 SIERA
Justin Steele: 3.09 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Brayan Bello - +4.9% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +2.0% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +3.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Sonny Gray - +3.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +6.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +6.3% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Kyle Freeland - +4.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +2.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Austin Gomber - +3.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Tyler Holton - +2.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Bryce Elder - +8.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Adam Duvall (ATL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Austin Wells (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Dylan Moore (SEA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Heliot Ramos (SF) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Javier Baez (DET) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jurickson Profar (SD) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Spencer Horwitz (TOR) 4 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Tyler Fitzgerald (SF) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Anthony Rendon, Yesterday: 108.9 Previous High: 107.3
Hardest Hit Balls
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 115.7mph - nan
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.4mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 113.5mph - single
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 113.1mph - nan
Adam Duvall (ATL) - 113.0mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (SF) - 112.8mph - field_out
Joc Pederson (ARI) - 112.7mph - home_run
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 112.2mph - nan
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - 112.0mph - nan
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 111.3mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Jorge Polanco - 68 PA, 0.288 wOBA, 0.399 xwOBA, 0.111 Diff
Andrew Vaughn - 74 PA, 0.247 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Jake Meyers - 74 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Brice Turang - 75 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Ben Rice - 78 PA, 0.299 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Matt Olson - 83 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 76 PA, 0.244 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Trent Grisham - 61 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Jordan Westburg - 79 PA, 0.29 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Salvador Perez - 73 PA, 0.323 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Bottom 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.588 wOBA, 0.466 xwOBA, -0.122 Diff
Trea Turner - 82 PA, 0.469 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Max Schuemann - 76 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Juan Yepez - 71 PA, 0.446 wOBA, 0.352 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 66 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 80 PA, 0.551 wOBA, 0.461 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 63 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.338 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 81 PA, 0.415 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 83 PA, 0.37 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Brenton Doyle - 79 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.428 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Matt Wallner - 41 PA, 18 BIP, 8 Brls, 44.4 Brl%
Ben Rice - 63 PA, 32 BIP, 10 Brls, 31.2 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 50 PA, 25 BIP, 7 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 69 PA, 48 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.1 Brl%
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Austin Riley - 63 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 65 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Mark Vientos - 66 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Brent Rooker - 69 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.503 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 67 PA, 0.502 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 82 PA, 0.499 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 0.476 xwOBA
Lawrence Butler - 65 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 63 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 68 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Matt Wallner - 41 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Nico Hoerner - 75 PA, 124 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 59 PA, 101 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 111 Swings, 93.7 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 46 PA, 75 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 61 PA, 119 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 54 PA, 101 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Nolan Arenado - 66 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 57 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 51 PA, 95 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Nolan Schanuel - 66 PA, 101 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Lane Thomas - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Victor Robles - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jacob Young - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jo Adell - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Mike Siani - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jackson Chourio - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jack Suwinski - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Ceddanne Rafaela - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
David Hamilton - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Richie Palacios - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Garcia - 671277 - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
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