MLB Daily Notes - July 2nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
LAST CALL!!
I am running a special until Tuesday. You can get a yearly subscription for $50, which is $30 cheaper than usual. That means you will get the rest of this season, the full off-season (draft prep!), and the first half of last season for just that $50.
There were only three games yesterday, so I can tell you everything that happened. I mean, I paid no attention to baseball yesterday, but I have this magical ability to look at numbers and then immediately start pretending that I know everything that happens and what it means for the future.
Pitcher Review
It was a big day for Gore, and that’s a nice bounce-back after his whiffs had been falling for a couple of starts there.
He now has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP on a 27.2% K% and 7.4% BB%. He’s out there every fifth day and piling up strikeouts (107 - 16th most in the league). So Gore has been a good draft value and you should continue to run him out there.
Hunter Brown rocked out his eighth-straight qualdaddy. Grammarly is trying to tell me that “qualdaddy” isn’t a word
ADD TO DICTIONARY DON’T MIND IF I DO.
Brown leads the league in ERA since May 22nd at 0.50. Zero point five. The WHIP is great at 0.83 there as well, and a 25% K-BB% is encouraging to see. The strength of schedule has been laughable here, it’s hard to believe you could get this many great matchups in a row, but you have to give Brown a ton of credit for dominating this stretch in this fashion. If all goes to schedule, he will face the Twins on the road and then the Rangers at home to wrap up his first half. Tougher matchups. He will either get the Mariners or Athletics coming out of the break and if he is one of their first starters out of the block, that will be followed by a tough match against the Dodgers.
I have to call the guy a sell-high. Over this elite stretch, he has a very strong 13.4% SwStr%, but that’s far from elite levels where just nobody can touch him. He also throws balls at a league-average rate. He has allowed a .489 OPS, a .217 BABIP, and a .242 xwOBA in these eight starts. There’s a lot of good fortune baked in here, and I would be checking the temperature to see what I might be able to get for Brown.
Lowest BABIP Allowed Since 5/15
Blanco .160
Woo .210
Stroman .212
H Brown .214
Lorenzen .217
Abbott .220
Wheeler .227
Gilbert .232
Woods Richardson .233
T Anderson .239
And since we did the lowest:
Highest BABIP Allowed Since 5/15
Montgomery .382
Kikuchi .381
Bello .372
Mize .363
Blach .361
Cease .360
Vasquez .353
Olson .346
Irvin .345
Feltner / Gore .341
Quick look at David Peterson’s time in the bigs this year:
6 GS, 33 IP, 9.3% SwStr%, 45.9% Strike%, 34.4% Ball%, 15.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, .739 OPS
My model had a problem with him recently spitting out a 13% strikeout rate projection on him. I didn’t think that made any sense, but you have a 15% mark over 33 innings. It’s pretty wild. I don’t think any pitcher below a 20% K% is someone you want to start in fantasy.
Hitter Review
The Brewers are in Coors, and that sets up this matchup for tonight:
The Brewers scored seven runs last night as William Contreras finally got it going again with a couple of hits, two runs, and a homer. He had a pretty rough June, slashing .218/.248/.287 with just one homer. That was after entering the month of June with a .904 OPS and eight homers.
Let’s hope he gets going again in July. I mean, let’s really hope that because he is my home league catcher, and I’m currently like eight games out of the playoffs. Not a good situation, and we should all be deeply concerned.
On the other side of Contreras was Brenton Doyle. He is two dingers and stole a bag, piling up 44 fantasy points. He is the man, and I am so mad I didn’t get to him on more teams.
This year:
.257/.320/.404, .724 OPS, 9 HR, 20 SB, 25.5% K%, 7.9% BB%
Last year:
.203/.250/.343, .593 OPS, 10 HR, 22 SB, 35% K%, 5.1% BB%
Big improvements across the board. He’s on pace for a freaking 20-40 season; very few people are talking about it!
Big news on the player prop betting front. The subs of mine who were using the projections for player props were cleaning up on hitter strikeouts all season, so much so that DraftKings took them away. Overnight, that whole market was just gone. So the Discord Bro’s twisted my arm and got me to look at some of the API’s to find those props on other books. That led me to find that I can just easily scrape all prop bets from a bunch of different sportsbooks. So I took like an hour last night and this morning to bang it out, and now we have this:
The model has Luis Gil with a base walk rate around 11%, and that projects out to a really high 3.6 walks tonight. So the over 2.5 walks looks good, and now you can use this tool to see which sportsbook has the best price on it:
I will add this dashboard to the Resource Glossary and at the bottom of this post where the premium links are. Check it out!
We’re back into tonight with a large Tuesday slate, so check back later for a juicy slate preview, thanks for reading!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. MacKenzie Gore
2. Yariel Rodriguez
3. Hunter Brown
4. David Peterson
5. Austin Gomber
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Brown (vs. TOR): 24.5 Points
2. MacKenzie Gore (vs. NYM): 23.16 Points
3. Yariel Rodriguez (vs. HOU): 22.61 Points
4. David Peterson (vs. WSH): 9.44 Points
5. Tyler Kinley (vs. MIL): 7.65 Points
6. Dylan Floro (vs. NYM): 6.39 Points
7. Jake Diekman (vs. WSH): 6.25 Points
8. Austin Gomber (vs. MIL): 6.1 Points
9. Trevor Richards (vs. HOU): 4.99 Points
10. Robert Garcia (vs. NYM): 4.91 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 21 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 13 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
3. Hunter Brown (HOU): 8 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. David Peterson (NYM): 6 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
5. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 6 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
6. Austin Gomber (COL): 5 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
7. Hoby Milner (MIL): 4 Whiffs (21 Pitches)
8. Robert Garcia (WSH): 4 Whiffs (11 Pitches)
9. Bryan Abreu (HOU): 4 Whiffs (18 Pitches)
10. Dylan Floro (WSH): 3 Whiffs (21 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 51.9 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
2. Hunter Brown (HOU): 47.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
3. David Peterson (NYM): 46.5 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
4. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR): 43.4 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
5. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 42.5 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
6. Austin Gomber (COL): 38.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yariel Rodriguez: 83 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.15 POUT
2. David Peterson: 86 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.53 POUT
3. Austin Gomber: 79 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.65 POUT
4. Hunter Brown: 99 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.5 POUT
5. MacKenzie Gore: 104 Pitches, 17 Outs, 6.12 POUT
6. Bryse Wilson: 73 Pitches, 11 Outs, 6.64 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's CU usage (31.6%) up 13.2 points
Bryse Wilson's FC usage (46.6%) up 12.3 points
David Peterson's SI usage (41.9%) up 16.0 points
Hunter Brown's SI usage (38.4%) up 32.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +20.1%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.7%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.7%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.4%
Sean Manaea Slider: +17.3%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +14.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +14.5%
Hogan Harris Slider: +13.3%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.3%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -13.2%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: +12.7%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 100 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 76 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 100 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4% K%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 36.4% K%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Taj Bradley - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 66 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 78 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 55.7% GB%
David Peterson - 96 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 94 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Jake Irvin - 90 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Dedniel Nunez - 44 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Paul Skenes - 98 TBF, 32.7 K%, 4.1 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Sonny Gray - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 56.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 7.76 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Triston McKenzie: 9.33 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 7.24 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 8.69 ERA, 5.13 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 8.25 ERA, 4.83 SIERA
Tylor Megill: 7.04 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
JP Sears: 7.94 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Slade Cecconi: 6.2 ERA, 3.4 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 5.73 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Spencer Schwellenbach: 5.74 ERA, 3.7 SIERA
Luckiest
Tobias Myers: 1.44 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 1.24 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 0.97 ERA, 3.01 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 1.95 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 3.6 ERA, 5.59 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 2.45 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.58 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Gavin Stone: 1.97 ERA, 3.8 SIERA
Mitchell Parker: 2.83 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 3.2 ERA, 4.99 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +3.1% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.4% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Joe Ryan - +3.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Cal Quantrill - +5.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Ryan Feltner - +3.3% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Ryne Nelson - +2.2% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +4.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +6.6% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Adrian Houser - +5.5% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brenton Doyle (COL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Charlie Blackmon (COL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Toglia (COL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
William Contreras (MIL) - 110.4mph - single
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 110.1mph - field_out
Tyrone Taylor (NYM) - 110.0mph - field_error
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) - 108.3mph - single
Michael Toglia (COL) - 108.2mph - field_out
Mark Vientos (NYM) - 108.1mph - double
Harrison Bader (NYM) - 107.6mph - grounded_into_double_play
Nolan Jones (COL) - 107.6mph - field_out
J.D. Martinez (NYM) - 107.6mph - home_run
Brenton Doyle (COL) - 107.1mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Julio Rodriguez - 72 PA, 0.204 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, 0.137 Diff
Andres Gimenez - 71 PA, 0.219 wOBA, 0.355 xwOBA, 0.136 Diff
Otto Lopez - 72 PA, 0.206 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, 0.114 Diff
Marcus Semien - 83 PA, 0.181 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.111 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 56 PA, 0.206 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.106 Diff
Adam Duvall - 63 PA, 0.155 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Paul Goldschmidt - 75 PA, 0.283 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.095 Diff
Nick Loftin - 57 PA, 0.193 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 67 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 60 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Bottom 10
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 69 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, -0.153 Diff
Carlos Correa - 76 PA, 0.484 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 62 PA, 0.489 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
C.J. Abrams - 76 PA, 0.539 wOBA, 0.426 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 0.365 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 74 PA, 0.481 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Bryan Reynolds - 79 PA, 0.449 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Josh Smith - 64 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Jesse Winker - 64 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Cedric Mullins II - 58 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 70 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Josh Lowe - 57 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 81 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 83 PA, 48 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 72 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Jose Siri - 70 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 75 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 77 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 76 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 81 PA, 0.535 xwOBA
J.D. Martinez - 83 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 70 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 77 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 77 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 63 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Tyler Soderstrom - 70 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 75 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 72 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 61 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 115 Swings, 94.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 133 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 54 PA, 90 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Justin Turner - 64 PA, 113 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Cedric Mullins II - 58 PA, 104 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 61 PA, 92 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 77 PA, 128 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 78 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 79 PA, 139 Swings, 86.3 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Maikel Garcia - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 4 Attempts (1 steals)
Leody Taveras - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Yelich - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Alec Burleson - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Stuart Fairchild - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Brice Turang - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Altuve - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Matt Chapman - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jacob Young - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Chas McCormick - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Richie Palacios - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ryan Kreidler - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Sal Frelick - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Nolan Gorman - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Lowe - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Blake Perkins - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
David Hamilton - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 11 Attempts (6 steals)
Brice Turang - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Luis Rengifo - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Christian Yelich - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Blake Perkins - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Bryson Stott - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 7 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 7 Attempts (2 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Brenton Doyle - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Gunnar Henderson - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.