MLB Daily Notes - July 30th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Trade Deadline Update
I didn’t even realize the trade deadline was TODAY rather than tomorrow. I’m not sure when that changed, but now I’m all jacked up because a lot of stuff is going to go down today! What a great day!
We saw a few impact trades yesterday, but nothing crazy.
Jorge Soler to the Braves
He’s back! Soler has been tossed all around the league. He’s now played for the Cubs, Royals, Braves, Marlins, Giants, and now back to the Braves. He played 55 games as a Brave in 2021 and was awesome with a .269/.358/.524 slash line. The trade makes all kinds of sense for the Braves who are really hurting in the outfield and in need of another slugger (that seems ridiculous to say given what they did last year, but it’s true!). As far as homers go, it’s not a park upgrade by the expected homer number (14 in SF, 11 in ATL), but that’s not the best way to judge it. Park factors are tricky, actually. But Trust Park (ATL) has a 101 overall park factor for right-handed hitters while AT&T is down at 97, so I think you would have to call it an upgrade.
Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros
Kikuchi’s main issues have been BABIP (.340) and the long ball (1.32 HR/9). This would seem to be a defense upgrade with Bregman/Pena/Altuve being pretty good at turning ground balls into outs. The Crawford boxes may be an issue for him. Tons of right-handed pulled fly balls turn into homers in that stadium. The main point to make is that Kikuchi has been much better than he’s appeared this year (3.47 SIERA, 3.41 xFIP, 4.75 ERA), and now he goes to a better team. I think he’s going to have some really nice starts down the stretch, but he’s never a safe pitcher, given his flyball nature (career 1.6 HR/9).
Lane Thomas to the Guardians
Cleveland just loves these contact hitters. They add Thomas, who is having another solid but unspectacular season, slashing .250/.328/.403 with eight homers. I don’t see much change on Thomas’ fantasy value here.
Erick Fedde to the Cardinals
Getting away from a team that is on pace for like 45 wins is a good thing, but Fedde isn’t really a guy I expect much from down the stretch for fantasy purposes. He can get some quality starts and wins on the Cardinals, but the 4.05 SIERA shows you how “meh” he’s been under the hood this year. If you have him though, you’re happy with this move overall.
Frankie Montas to the Brewers
This makes real-life sense. The Brewers have a good lead on the division but are really hurting in their rotation. They add a starter, but Montas just isn’t very good. He’s posted a 5.01 ERA with a 4.75 SIERA on a 19% K% and 10% BB%. It’s a positive to get out of Great American Ballpark, but he’s not someone you want in a standard fantasy league no matter where he’s pitching.
There will be much more to get to today! I’ll be tweeting through it all day.
Pitcher Review
My old college roommate is in my fantasy league. He’s having a nice season, was around 3rd place for most of the year. But he just took a spanking last week and now he’s tied for 4th (with me!), right on the playoff bubble. So he’s down in the dumps and in a real doomsday mood in our slack channel. So he predicted that his two aces Logan Gilbert and Zack Wheeler would both get smacked around, and he was right!
Wheeler: 5 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 6 K, 3 BB
Gilbert: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 4 K, 0 BB
Gotta love it. I just wish I were playing him!
There’s no reason to worry about either guy, just bad matchups and bad variance there.
How about that Grant Holmes dude. I wrote him up as a DFS punt pick, and wish I would have taken it!
5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, 15.7% SwStr%, 61.4% Strike%
This isn’t a fantasy option. I think he’ll go back to the bullpen now, especially if the Braves add a starter today. But gotta give that guy and his salad a shout out.
Jordan Montgomery is such a disaster.
4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 K, 3 BB
This is one of the worst free agent signings I can remember. The Diamondbacks have gotten pummeled by this guy. He now has a 6.51 ERA in 15 starts with a 5.03 SIERA, a 14.2% K%, and an 8% BB%. He’s doing nothing well.
Tanner Bibee did not have the whiff stuff once again, but got through a nice box score line this time:
6+ IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB, 10.5% SwStr%, 48.4% Strike%
He now has just a 20.4% K% and 10.0% SwStr% in his last five starts. For the year, he has a 20.4% K-BB% with a 13.2% SwStr%, so overall, the numbers are very strong, but he’s moved in the wrong direction.
The fastball velo was down a little bit last night (from 95 to 93.9), but the big difference seems to be with his slider. He has SwStr% of 8.3%, 9.1%, and 11.8% on that pitch his last three outings. He was routinely going above 15% with the pitch early on.
I’d still start Bibee every time, but it’s concerning to see a 20% K% over a full month’s worth of starts.
Zach Eflin made his Orioles debut:
6 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB, 12.2% SwStr%, 51% Strike%
This is just who Eflin is now. He throws the ball right at you and hopes you hit it on the ground and/or at somebody. So that will hurt your WHIP when the BABIP goes up like it did yesterday (.450). His season BABIP is .303, which is right around the league average, but you’d like him to be much better than average if he’s really going to strike out less than 20% of hitters. The GB% also isn’t high at 43%. He’s not very good… but the Orioles should give him the wins.
Season update on Luis Gil:
20 GS, 13.4% SwStr%, 28.5 K%, 11.4% BB%, 47.1% Strike%, 38.8% Ball%
He’s had four pretty good starts in a row now after that three-start disaster stretch.
Not sure what they’ll do with him in terms of innings, but the walk rate is moving in the right direction and he’s certainly more good than bad when he’s on the bump (3.89 SIERA).
That is all the time I have for today, got a lot of work to catch up on this morning so I can spend the entire afternoon refreshing Twitter. Tootaloo!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Grant Holmes
2. Logan Gilbert
3. Paul Skenes
4. Nick Pivetta
5. Luis Gil
6. Nathan Eovaldi
7. Zach Eflin
8. Zack Wheeler
9. Jameson Taillon
10. Andre Pallante
11. Tanner Bibee
12. Colin Rea
13. Jordan Montgomery
14. Simeon Woods Richardson
15. Jose Quintana
16. Mitchell Parker
17. Carson Spiers
18. Cade Povich
19. Chris Flexen
20. Bowden Francis
21. Alec Marsh
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (vs. SEA): 28.81 Points
2. Grant Holmes (vs. MIL): 23.45 Points
3. Jose Quintana (vs. MIN): 21.9 Points
4. Carson Spiers (vs. CHC): 21.45 Points
5. Luis Gil (vs. PHI): 21.19 Points
6. Zach Eflin (vs. TOR): 19.5 Points
7. Paul Skenes (vs. HOU): 18.7 Points
8. Colin Rea (vs. ATL): 16.99 Points
9. Tayler Scott (vs. PIT): 14.75 Points
10. Bryan Sammons (vs. CLE): 13.49 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Paul Skenes (PIT): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 15 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
3. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 14 Whiffs (69 Pitches)
5. Luis Gil (NYY): 14 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Zach Eflin (BAL): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Bryan Sammons (DET): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
8. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 11 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
9. Grant Holmes (ATL): 11 Whiffs (70 Pitches)
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 10 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Grant Holmes (ATL): 61.4 Strike%, 24.3 Ball%
2. Cole Irvin (BAL): 57.4 Strike%, 25.9 Ball%
3. Bryan Sammons (DET): 53.1 Strike%, 26.0 Ball%
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 52.2 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
5. Luis Gil (NYY): 51.1 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
6. Zach Eflin (BAL): 51.0 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
7. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 50.5 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
8. Paul Skenes (PIT): 49.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
9. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 48.5 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 48.4 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
11. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 48.1 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
12. Colin Rea (MIL): 47.6 Strike%, 36.6 Ball%
13. Brandon Eisert (TOR): 46.2 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
14. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 45.7 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
15. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 45.1 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bryan Sammons: 96 Pitches, 22 Outs, 4.36 POUT
2. Bowden Francis: 76 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.47 POUT
3. Carson Spiers: 68 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.53 POUT
4. Nathan Eovaldi: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
5. Grant Holmes: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT
6. Mitchell Parker: 74 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.93 POUT
7. Alec Marsh: 69 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.93 POUT
8. Colin Rea: 82 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.12 POUT
9. Tanner Bibee: 95 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.28 POUT
10. Chris Flexen: 97 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.39 POUT
####Velo Changes - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.7
Luis Gil's SL velo (43 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 90.1
Nick Pivetta's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.2
Luis Gil's FF velo (30 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 98.3
Jordan Montgomery's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's SL usage (37.7%) up 19.3 points
Alec Marsh's SI usage (23.2%) up 11.7 points
Bowden Francis's FS usage (21.1%) up 13.6 points
Chris Flexen's SL usage (21.6%) up 13.9 points
Cole Irvin's SI usage (38.9%) up 20.9 points
Cole Irvin's FC usage (24.1%) up 10.4 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (35.9%) up 11.2 points
Jose Quintana's CU usage (49.5%) up 26.3 points
Luis Gil's SL usage (46.7%) up 24.8 points
Mitchell Parker's FF usage (66.2%) up 16.7 points
Nathan Eovaldi's FF usage (50.0%) up 11.3 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (33.9%) up 21.3 points
Paul Skenes's SI usage (33.7%) up 28.2 points
Simeon Woods Richardson's SL usage (51.9%) up 21.1 points
Tanner Bibee's CH usage (28.4%) up 11.2 points
Zach Eflin's FC usage (38.8%) up 12.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +24.6%
Patrick Corbin Cutter: +20.8%
Paul Skenes Split-Finger: -19.9%
Marco Gonzales Sinker: -19.2%
Blake Snell Curveball: +18.4%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -17.6%
Jose Quintana Curveball: +17.5%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -17.0%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +16.7%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +16.4%
Kyle Freeland 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +16.1%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Garrett Crochet Cutter: +15.8%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Marco Gonzales Changeup: +14.9%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.0%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -13.9%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +13.3%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +13.2%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -13.1%
Tanner Bibee Slider: -12.6%
Cade Povich Sinker: +12.4%
Hayden Birdsong 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 84 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 81 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 87 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 97 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 41.7% K%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 35.9% K%
Nick Pivetta - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Blake Snell - 84 TBF, 35.7% K%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Carlos Rodon - 87 TBF, 33.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Paul Skenes - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 95 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 77 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Kyle Freeland - 72 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 75 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 77 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 76 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Tanner Houck - 78 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Taj Bradley - 71 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Jose Quintana - 95 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Michael Wacha - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 42 TBF, 33.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 64.0% GB%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 77 TBF, 32.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, 58.7% GB%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Taj Bradley - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 56.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 81 TBF, 27.2 K%, 4.9 BB%, 50.9% GB%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 2.7 BB%, 43.8% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Mitchell Parker: 7.89 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 6.58 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Carlos Carrasco: 6.84 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 8.27 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Joe Ryan: 5.02 ERA, 2.78 SIERA
Nick Pivetta: 4.34 ERA, 2.42 SIERA
Kyle Hendricks: 7.15 ERA, 5.25 SIERA
Logan Gilbert: 4.6 ERA, 2.95 SIERA
Zac Gallen: 6.0 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 5.27 ERA, 3.9 SIERA
Luckiest
Hunter Greene: 0.57 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 0.28 ERA, 3.03 SIERA
Andrew Abbott: 3.29 ERA, 5.72 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.05 ERA, 4.38 SIERA
Brady Singer: 1.88 ERA, 4.01 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 2.51 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 3.2 ERA, 4.54 SIERA
Trevor Rogers: 3.38 ERA, 4.6 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 3.34 ERA, 4.5 SIERA
Andrew Heaney: 2.63 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Nick Pivetta - +2.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Sonny Gray - +3.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Kyle Freeland - +4.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +2.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Blake Snell - +8.7% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Ronel Blanco - +2.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Austin Gomber - +2.1% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +5.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jose Butto - +5.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Cole Irvin - +3.7% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Colton Cowser (BAL) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jordan Westburg (BAL) 9 PA, 14 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 9 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 10 PA, 18 Swings, 5 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 119.3mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 115.1mph - double
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 114.3mph - home_run
Willson Contreras (STL) - 114.2mph - field_out
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 113.6mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 113.4mph - single
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 112.2mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.2mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.0mph - grounded_into_double_play
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) - 111.8mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Brice Turang - 73 PA, 0.171 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.115 Diff
Jorge Polanco - 72 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.435 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Andrew Vaughn - 75 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Jake Meyers - 74 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 76 PA, 0.28 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Jarred Kelenic - 84 PA, 0.196 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 75 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Jonathan India - 77 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Ian Happ - 81 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Andy Pages - 71 PA, 0.223 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Bottom 10
Rhys Hoskins - 61 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.135 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.556 wOBA, 0.426 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Xavier Edwards - 81 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Tyler O'Neill - 72 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Trea Turner - 84 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 77 PA, 0.521 wOBA, 0.429 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 71 PA, 0.427 wOBA, 0.336 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Hunter Renfroe - 66 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 75 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Jarren Duran - 91 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 38 BIP, 11 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Tyler Fitzgerald - 46 PA, 28 BIP, 8 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Ben Rice - 66 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 68 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 70 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 67 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 56 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Jose Siri - 50 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.