MLB Daily Notes - July 31st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Let’s look at some standout pitching performances from the weekend.
Jesus Luzardo man, just when I thought he was a reliable ace he goes out and gets shelled by the Tigers! 12.5% SwStr% yesterday with a 45.8% Strike%. He gave up four runs and seven hits in 4.2 innings. The walks were a problem (3), but we should obviously be willing to forgive this start given how great he’s been. But you never want to see the walks with him!
Michael Grove had 20 more whiffs yesterday but gave up eight earned runs in six innings. That made for ten strikeouts of the Reds, but it was an awful start for him. The reason I bring it up is because this was his second straight start with a 20%+ SwStr%. He has 16 strikeouts in his last 50 batters faced, that’s a 32% K%. He gave up four barrels and three homers yesterday, so he’s not someone to play in fantasy - but if this SwStr% keeps up then we’ll have to take a closer look next time.
Tarik Skubal wasn’t fantastic yesterday giving up four earned runs and not making it out of the fifth inning. The 15.4% swStr% was good and so was the 51.3% Strike and 29.5% Ball%, so I’m not worried about it. He’s still a must-start in all leagues.
Luis Medina had another one with 16 whiffs. That’s four straight starts with a SwStr% above 15%. He has 27 strikeouts in his last four starts, so this is becoming interesting in a hurry. Over these last four:
15.2% SwStr%
27.4% K%
8.0% BB%
54% GB%
Pretty good stuff. For the year the K-BB% is way down at 13%, so he hasn’t been pitching well all year - but the recent performance is something to look at. Here’s the pitch mix:
Really good slider but a bad fastball. The four-seamer has a 48% Strike% in the last month, so that’s better - but I wouldn’t be confident that this will stick around. Anyways, Medina is not a total gas can - we can say that.
James Paxton had just a 12.5% SwStr% on Saturday and that makes for 3 of his last 4 starts being pretty mediocre on that front. For the year he has a 14.6% SwStr% and 50.1% Strike%, over the last four starts those marks are 12.4% and 49.4%. I don’t want to overweight the recent data like we can be overly prone to do, but it’s a little bit concerning to see a guy that has thrown so few innings over the last handful of years seemingly wearing down as the year goes on. Maybe he’s not really wearing down though and this is just a random down-swing, but I’d be more hesitant about starting him until I see another big strikeout/whiff day.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. ARI): 29.7 Points
2. Blake Snell (vs. TEX): 28.45 Points
3. Ryan Yarbrough (vs. MIN): 23.55 Points
4. Aaron Civale (vs. CWS): 22.5 Points
5. Justin Verlander (vs. WSH): 20.39 Points
6. Steven Matz (vs. CHC): 19.1 Points
7. Jose Berrios (vs. LAA): 18.7 Points
8. Graham Ashcraft (vs. LAD): 18.5 Points
9. Kenta Maeda (vs. KC): 17.65 Points
10. Ty Blach (vs. OAK): 16.85 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael Grove (LAD): 20 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Blake Snell (SD): 19 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Colin Rea (MIL): 18 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
4. Jose Berrios (TOR): 17 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Luis Castillo (SEA): 16 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Luis Medina (OAK): 16 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
7. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 16 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
8. Ryan Yarbrough (KC): 12 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
9. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 12 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Colin Rea (MIL): 57.5 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
2. Justin Verlander (NYM): 56.3 Strike%, 28.2 Ball%
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 55.9 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
4. Dean Kremer (BAL): 52.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
5. Tarik Skubal (DET): 51.3 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
6. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 51.1 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
7. Blake Snell (SD): 50.5 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
8. Ty Blach (COL): 50.0 Strike%, 21.2 Ball%
9. Steven Matz (STL): 49.5 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 49.3 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
11. Michael Grove (LAD): 49.0 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
12. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 48.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
13. Luis Severino (NYY): 48.8 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
14. Cody Bradford (TEX): 48.7 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
15. Luis Medina (OAK): 48.4 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Remember that Michael Kopech run earlier this year? That was weird, and now it’s long over.
Top walk rates since 7/1:
Snell 18.7%
Kopech 17.9%
Sheehan 15.5%
Eovaldi 15.3%
Priester 15.1%
Wells 13.5%
Rodon 13.3%
T Walker 13.3%
Sandoval 13.2%
Manoah 12.8%
Any walk rate above 10% is hard to deal with, and if you’re above 15% then you’re really going to have trouble
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luis Severino's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 92.2
Trevor Williams's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.4
Kenta Maeda's FF velo (27 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 92.3
Justin Verlander's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.6
Michael Kopech's FF velo (60 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 93.1
Michael Kopech's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 82.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chris Murphy's SL usage (55.6%) up 22.5 points
Colin Rea's ST usage (26.2%) up 16.7 points
Dean Kremer's FC usage (33.3%) up 10.6 points
Jesus Luzardo's FF usage (60.4%) up 14.4 points
Jose Berrios's FF usage (35.7%) up 14.2 points
Kyle Hendricks's SI usage (49.5%) up 13.1 points
Luis Medina's SL usage (33.0%) up 11.7 points
Luis Medina's SI usage (25.3%) up 15.6 points
Luis Severino's FC usage (22.5%) up 12.3 points
Rich Hill's SI usage (17.7%) up 14.4 points
Ross Stripling's SI usage (20.6%) up 12.6 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CH usage (33.3%) up 12.2 points
Tyler Anderson's FF usage (54.5%) up 18.8 points
Zack Littell's ST usage (14.6%) up 11.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jon Gray Slider: +21.7%
Ryan Walker Sinker: -20.5%
Ryan Walker Slider: +20.5%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -18.9%
Luis Medina Sinker: +18.6%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +16.8%
Martin Perez Sinker: +16.2%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Brandon Pfaadt 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: -14.7%
Martin Perez Changeup: -14.6%
Michael Grove Cutter: +14.5%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.8%
Jake Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Adrian Houser Slider: +12.6%
Bobby Miller Curveball: +12.6%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +12.5%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Bryce Miller Slider: +12.2%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
Bobby Miller has been throwing a ton of strikes lately. For the season:
12.1% SwStr%
47.0% Strike%
36.0% Ball%
23.8% K%
6.5% BB%
.286 xwOBA
Last five starts:
12.3% SwStr%
48.4% Strike%
34.7% Ball%
25.2% K%
2.7% BB%
.281 xwOBA
The SwStr% and K% are still middling, which is surprising given how nasty this guy’s stuff is - but it’s good to see him at least not walking anybody. I think the ceiling is sky high with him, but maybe that won’t happen until next year. There’s also a question of who will be booted from the rotation with Lance Lynn arriving, but it would seem that Sheehan is the more likely option to hit the bullpen/minors.
I’m also really liking what we’re seeing from Cristopher Sanchez. He threw five innings against the Pirates and didn’t give up a hit, but he did walk three and hit three batters. For the year:
10.4% SwStr%
48.9% Strike%
32.2% Ball%
22.3% K%
4.3% BB%
.614 OPS allowed
He’s been in the rotation consistently since June 17th, since then:
10.7% SwStr%
49.4% Strike%
31.7% Ball%
22.0% K%
3.7% BB%
.599 OPS allowed
So he doesn’t get a ton of whiffs, but he doesn’t throw many balls and he has this insanely good changeup. Here’s the pitch mix since 6/17:
We see this profile over and over again with a guy having a really nasty secondary pitch but just not having a great fastball to use with it. The 5.1% SwStr% on the sinker is low, but at least it does have that nice 59% GB%. If you’re not going to get whiffs with the fastball, you better keep it out of the air - so credit to Sanchez there. I think he’s a guy to add in deeper leagues if he’s available.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eduardo Rodriguez - 71 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 37.2% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Tanner Bibee - 74 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Seth Lugo - 72 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 77 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 64 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Julio Urias - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 44.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 37.1% K%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 35.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
George Kirby - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 41.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
George Kirby - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 91 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Kenta Maeda - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 77 TBF, 67.3% GB%
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 77 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 61 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 80 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Brayan Bello - 68 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 85 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 71 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Johan Oviedo - 66 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 75 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 39.2 K%, 5.4 BB%, 55.3% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 67 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 37.1 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Luis Medina - 64 TBF, 28.1 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Nick Pivetta - 41 TBF, 46.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 52.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 63 TBF, 27.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 1.8 BB%, 51.3% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 77 TBF, 31.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 67.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +2.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +4.9% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.7% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +5.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Seth Lugo - +2.9% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Logan Allen - +3.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Michael Grove - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Luis Medina - +2.4% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Drew Smyly - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Matt Manning - +4.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Griffin Canning - +7.6% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jose Quintana - +3.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Hitters
Big game for EDLC! He has been lifting the ball a lot more lately, and that’s really all we’re going to need to see for him to be a fantasy stud.
The K% has stayed very high, but you can see the OPS has ticked up as he’s gotten the ball in the air a few more times:
No guarantee that this will stay around, he could very well go right back to a 55% GB% over the next two months, but it’s a positive development for sure.
And another dinger for Matt Wallner! He’s up to a 17.1% Brl% and a 28% K% in 74 PAs. The .911 OPS is very good and he should be in the lineup every day now with Alex Kirilloff going to the IL.
Multiple Barrels
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gary Sanchez (SD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Andrew Knizner, Yesterday: 110.3 Previous High: 110.2
Hardest Hit Balls
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 113.7mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 113.2mph - double
Javier Baez (DET) - 113.1mph - single
Josh Lowe (TB) - 111.4mph - double
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 111.3mph - home_run
Joey Votto (CIN) - 111.2mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.1mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.0mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 110.8mph - single
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 110.8mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 70 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff
Corey Julks - 57 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, 0.105 Diff
Matt Thaiss - 59 PA, 0.248 wOBA, 0.344 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Patrick Bailey - 62 PA, 0.17 wOBA, 0.256 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 81 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Mike Yastrzemski - 56 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 67 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.302 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 79 PA, 0.237 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Wander Franco - 80 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Miguel Rojas - 62 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Bottom 10
Whit Merrifield - 83 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, -0.136 Diff
Jarren Duran - 57 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.128 Diff
Matt McLain - 79 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Will Benson - 59 PA, 0.422 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Ha-Seong Kim - 77 PA, 0.472 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Wilmer Flores - 69 PA, 0.486 wOBA, 0.373 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Nathaniel Lowe - 83 PA, 0.458 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Taylor Ward - 67 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Jose Siri - 57 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.207 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 85 PA, 0.507 wOBA, 0.408 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Austin Riley - 60 PA, 41 BIP, 12 Brls, 29.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 60 PA, 28 BIP, 8 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Triston Casas - 47 PA, 30 BIP, 8 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Edouard Julien - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Jake Burger - 60 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Max Muncy - 68 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mike Ford - 48 PA, 20 BIP, 4 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
C.J. Cron - 39 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Triston Casas - 47 PA, 0.54 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 60 PA, 0.491 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 60 PA, 0.475 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 54 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Gary Sanchez - 45 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 67 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 64 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Edouard Julien - 58 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 65 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 64 PA, 130 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 58 PA, 104 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 89 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 75 PA, 106 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 54 PA, 104 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 58 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Alec Burleson - 38 PA, 76 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 86 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Luis Matos - 56 PA, 91 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 57 PA, 99 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Jarren Duran - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Seiya Suzuki - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Willi Castro - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zack Gelof - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bryson Stott - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jake Fraley - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Oscar Colas - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Forrest Wall - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Tony Kemp - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 15 Attempts (15 steals)
Willi Castro - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Jake Fraley - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Travis Jankowski - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Tony Kemp - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jarren Duran - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Luis Robert - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Caballero - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.