MLB Daily Notes - July 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
It turns out the way to win DFS this year is just to play Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani together. I won the Hundo contests for the second time in seven days.
And the hitter strikeout props came back with a vengeance:
So that was a good night for me.
Three hours have passed since I wrote that last sentence and this one. You wouldn’t believe the amount of real-life work I just had to do (read: a completely normal amount). Two meetings and a big project delivered. Fortune 500 company and we’re still reporting sales in text file format; you wouldn’t believe this stuff, bro.
Pitcher Review
Luis Gil must be talked about it again. He might be the most written-about pitcher on these pages this year, but he has really put us through it.
First 14 Starts:
2.03 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 30.4% K%, 12.3% BB%, 18% K-BB%, .56 HR/9Last 3 Starts:
14.91 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, 10.7% K%, 16.1% BB%, -5.4 K-BB%, 2.8 HR/9
This was a model sell-high, and if you didn’t do it, shame on you. Let’s make something new today.
The Pillars of a Sell High
Sell a pitcher when they having success while also having some of the below attributes
A High Walk Rate
A Very Low BABIP
A Very Low HR/FB (especially with a high FB%)
On June 20th, Gil sat there with a
12.4% BB%
.223 BABIP
10.6% HR/FB (with a very high 29% FB%)
All three of those numbers were scary.
Over the last three starts, the walks have been out of control (16%), the HR/FB has been around the league average, and the BABIP is at .333 (still not a ridiculous number).
This is extreme regression. You shouldn’t have been expecting a stretch this bad, I’m not trying to take like a double victory lap here, but he was showing so many red flags that it was wise to get rid of him.
The next logical question is, who are some current sell-high pitchers who fit this criterion?
Reynaldo Lopez
- 9% BB%
- .277 BABIP
- 9.7% HR/FB (28% FB%)
Hunter Greene
- 10% BB%
- .268 BABIP
- 11.8% HR/FB (31% FB%)
James Paxton
- 12% BB%
- .268 BABIP
- 13% HR/FB (30% FB%)
I doubt you’ll be able to fool too many with Paxton, but Lopez and Greene standout as really nice guys to try to get rid of.
So now it’s 11 o’clock, and I’ve talked about one player from yesterday, so that’s annoying.
The Michael Mercado debut went pretty well:
5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 K, 2 BB, 12.8% SwStr%, 48.7% Strike%
A 57% Strike% on the four-seamer is awesome; the cutter brought the whiffs, and the curveball got a bunch of ground balls. I can’t really argue much.
I’m not going to call him a must-add at this point. He had a low 23% K% in the minors with just a 13.2% SwStr%. That stuff matters a lot more to me than one big league start.
I’d certainly be taking a guy like Spencer Schwellenbach over him given the high Strike% rate we’ve seen from him in the Majors in a bigger sample and the better minor league marks this year (16.3% SwStr%, 29% K%, 6% BB%).
Ten strikeouts for DJ Herz, and zero walks!
He has put us through the ringer. He has two elite starts now but a few bad ones as well. Here’s the pitch mix:
That 15.2% SwStr% and 34% Ball% is fantastic. And look at this, hot dog, the guy has five checkmarks!
It’s easier to get five checkmarks in six starts than in a dozen starts, so I would doubt he keeps all of five of them. And there is always more reason to hesitate on a guy who pretty comes out of nowhere.
I mean, the prospect bros will call me out on that, but I don’t think most people had heard of the kid. He is the Nationals’ #12 prospect, so he wasn’t banging down the door in Spring Training or anything like that.
I don’t know, man. The future is tough to know.
The minor league track record is pretty good with high strikeout rate at every level, but those walk rates, the hell is that about Davidjohn? Let’s check another one of my premium resources, the league-adjusted minor league stats.
Nationals minor league pitchers from last year:
So, even with adjusting for the league context, the guy had a super high walk rate. And it wasn’t any better early this year, with a 19% BB% in his nine AAA starts. But now he’s turning in a 5.8% BB% in the Majors. Suspect! The Ball% does ease concerns, though. He’s thrown 480 pitches to Major League hitters now, and just 34% of them have been called a ball. I am so confused about minor league walk rates; they seem completely useless.
Let’s look at that more. I looked at each league between AA and MLB and found Ball%, BB%, and the ratio between the two. And then I let Excel make it purple.
So MLB has the highest ratio by a good margin. If you took the AAA ratio and applied it to MLB, you’d expect a 10.4% league walk rate.
What does any of this mean? Maybe big league pitchers are just better at throwing strikes in three-ball counts?
Strike% In 3-Ball Counts
MLB: 50.7%
Minors: 36.5%
AAA: 36.9%
AA: 36.4%
That’s such a big difference that I’m starting to doubt it’s even real. I think my data is legit, but this is definitely a red flag. I would dive into it and figure it out, but it’s already 11:30 and I’m not even close to done with these notes.
Does anybody have insight here? Are there any minor league coaches or players reading this? Do minor league teams not care about walks as much? Are pitchers just afraid of getting lit up on a meatball and would rather just take the walk?
Maybe another purple table will help.
Zone Rates by Balls in Count, MLB vs. AAA:
If the minor league play-by-play data is correct, then there is a massive difference in pitcher approach between AAA and the Majors. You get a pitch in the zone 77% of the time in AAA, but just 49% of the time in the Majors. In a three-ball count, you get a pitch in the zone 60% of the time in the Majors, and just 42% of the time AAA.
This needs further examination and explanation, but for now, I have to move on.
I guess the point is, don’t trust minor league walk rates.
Hold on, there’s one more thing I can check. Correlation between pitcher BB% in the minors and in the Majors%.
The correlation coefficient is 0.55.
For the strikeout rate, it’s 0.63.
So, there is definitely more signal in the minor league strikeout rate, but it’s not nothing for the walk rate. Here are your ten most pronounced examples of improving the walk rate in the Majors:
Okay, well, that was a non-traditional Daily Notes, and it took me longer than ever to blast out. I hope some people out there find this stuff interesting, an I hope someone reaches out to me with more real-life insight into this walk stuff.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Kutter Crawford
2. DJ Herz
3. George Kirby
4. Grayson Rodriguez
5. Carlos Carrasco
6. Tarik Skubal
7. Michael Mercado
8. Brady Singer
9. Hayden Wesneski
10. Zack Littell
11. Graham Ashcraft
12. Kyle Gibson
13. Mitch Keller
14. Chris Flexen
15. Hayden Birdsong
16. Valente Bellozo
17. Bobby Miller
18. Sean Manaea
19. Simeon Woods Richardson
20. Dallas Keuchel
21. Mitch Spence
22. Jose Soriano
23. Nathan Eovaldi
24. Reynaldo Lopez
25. Dylan Cease
26. Luis Gil
27. Ryan Feltner
28. Jose Berrios
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. SD): 31.15 Points
2. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. SEA): 30.64 Points
3. DJ Herz (vs. NYM): 27.76 Points
4. Kutter Crawford (vs. MIA): 27.7 Points
5. Zack Littell (vs. KC): 20.85 Points
6. Mitch Spence (vs. LAA): 19.79 Points
7. Kyle Gibson (vs. PIT): 19.65 Points
8. Sean Manaea (vs. WSH): 19.55 Points
9. Michael Mercado (vs. CHC): 18.85 Points
10. Tarik Skubal (vs. MIN): 18.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 19 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Hayden Wesneski (CHC): 17 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
3. DJ Herz (WSH): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
4. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 16 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
5. Brady Singer (KC): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
6. Tarik Skubal (DET): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
7. George Kirby (SEA): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Chris Flexen (CWS): 13 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
9. Valente Bellozo (MIA): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
10. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 11 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz (WSH): 63.0 Strike%, 23.9 Ball%
2. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 59.7 Strike%, 20.8 Ball%
3. Tarik Skubal (DET): 55.3 Strike%, 28.7 Ball%
4. Mitch Keller (PIT): 52.5 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
5. Zack Littell (TB): 51.5 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
6. Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 51.4 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
7. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 50.6 Strike%, 34.5 Ball%
8. George Kirby (SEA): 49.5 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
9. Kyle Gibson (STL): 49.4 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
10. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 48.9 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
11. Michael Mercado (PHI): 48.7 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
12. Valente Bellozo (MIA): 48.0 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
13. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 47.1 Strike%, 41.3 Ball%
14. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 46.8 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
15. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 46.1 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios: 60 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.0 POUT
2. Kutter Crawford: 72 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.0 POUT
3. Carlos Carrasco: 70 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.12 POUT
4. Nathan Eovaldi: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
5. Sean Manaea: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT
6. Zack Littell: 68 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.86 POUT
7. Dallas Keuchel: 78 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.88 POUT
8. Jose Soriano: 62 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.17 POUT
9. Michael Mercado: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
10. Graham Ashcraft: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryne Nelson's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 91.2
DJ Herz's CH velo (27 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.8
Hayden Wesneski's SI velo (11 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 95.1
George Kirby's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.1
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 86.1
Grayson Rodriguez's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.2
Tarik Skubal's CH velo (24 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.8
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.4
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (54 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 95.1
Bobby Miller's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 78.6
Bobby Miller's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 96.5
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 84.1
Bobby Miller's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 85.2
Bobby Miller's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 96.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bobby Miller's FF usage (51.1%) up 20.2 points
Brady Singer's SL usage (54.5%) up 11.2 points
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (41.4%) up 20.6 points
Dallas Keuchel's CH usage (42.3%) up 14.4 points
Graham Ashcraft's FC usage (64.1%) up 13.0 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (53.2%) up 14.9 points
Kyle Gibson's ST usage (34.2%) up 14.5 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (41.4%) up 12.9 points
Mitch Keller's CU usage (20.2%) up 11.3 points
Mitch Spence's SI usage (21.3%) up 11.6 points
Ryne Nelson's FC usage (32.1%) up 14.8 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (39.2%) up 21.0 points
Sean Manaea's FC usage (22.7%) up 17.0 points
Sean Manaea's ST usage (20.6%) up 10.6 points
Spencer Arrighetti's ST usage (27.0%) up 15.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jose Soriano Sinker: +20.7%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +20.1%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.7%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.7%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.4%
Jose Soriano Curveball: -15.9%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +14.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +14.5%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.5%
Mitch Keller Curveball: +14.3%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -14.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +13.4%
Hogan Harris Slider: +13.3%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.3%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: +12.7%
Mitch Spence Sinker: +12.3%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Ronel Blanco - 78 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 100 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 76 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4% K%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Taj Bradley - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 106 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 78 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 95 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 55.7% GB%
David Peterson - 96 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Jake Irvin - 90 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 102 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Tanner Houck - 103 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Dedniel Nunez - 47 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 2.0 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Sonny Gray - 98 TBF, 27.6 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 56.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 7.76 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Triston McKenzie: 9.33 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Austin Gomber: 8.65 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 6.09 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
Ryan Feltner: 6.4 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Tylor Megill: 7.04 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
JP Sears: 7.94 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Slade Cecconi: 6.2 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 5.73 ERA, 3.22 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 7.22 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Luckiest
Hunter Brown: 0.29 ERA, 3.32 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 1.44 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 1.41 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 3.6 ERA, 5.59 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 2.45 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.58 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 3.2 ERA, 4.99 SIERA
Mitchell Parker: 2.83 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 4.15 ERA, 5.91 SIERA
Jake Irvin: 2.17 ERA, 3.92 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Steele - +3.1% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +2.4% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Joe Ryan - +3.8% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Ryan Feltner - +3.0% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Cal Quantrill - +5.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +2.7% CSW%, -8.8 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +9.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.1% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +4.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +6.6% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Adrian Houser - +5.5% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Matt Chapman (SF) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Trea Turner (PHI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Willy Adames, Yesterday: 112.3 Previous High: 110.7
Hardest Hit Balls
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 114.1mph - home_run
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.5mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.5mph - home_run
Willy Adames (MIL) - 112.3mph - single
Jorge Soler (SF) - 112.3mph - force_out
James Wood (WSH) - 111.6mph - field_out
Matt Chapman (SF) - 111.4mph - field_out
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.3mph - field_out
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 109.9mph - single
Nolan Gorman (STL) - 109.9mph - nan
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