MLB Daily Notes: July 4, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Happy Independence Day everybody. I have plenty to say about America, politics, philosophy, and freedom - so why not get into it?
Today is about our freedom. So here are my thoughts on the topic. Some original, some stolen from others - but all ideas I’ve thought about and certainly agree with and will defend. If you don’t believe in God, you can probably just skip this part cause you’re not going to care for what I have to say.
Contrary to some popular belief, the founders of the country were, at least generally, a religious group. They didn’t all buy into it (Benjamin Franklin was pretty agnostic, I believe), but they did all come here and set this whole thing with God and religion in mind. The religious freedom they established was not intended necessarily to keep people away from religion, but to make religious belief and practice much more meaningful.
The idea is that if you mandate or cram religious belief or faith in God down people’s throats, it won’t really mean anything to them. You need the freedom to choose your faith for it to really be of meaning. This just goes for general morality too, if you are forced to be moral by governmental force, it just doesn’t mean much for you as a single person. It may be better for society, since acting morally is a good thing, but for the individual - things only really become real and meaningful if they are found and chosen themselves.
I grew up in Christian school and church and had all of that ingrained in my brain that way - I was indoctrinated, no doubt about it (that word doesn’t have to have a negative connotation, by the way, being indoctrinated in goodness and truth is actually quite a good thing - it’s just about figuring out what goodness and truth is!). But as an adult, I had some experiences and did enough reading and thinking and that made my faith in God actually mean something to me personally. I’m not just going through the motions of all of this just because that’s how I was raised or because the church I go to tells me to - it all actually means something personally to me and that really changes everything.
So we need religious freedom not to keep people away from faith in God - but to make their faith in God actually mean something. This, I think, is the reason that bad things happen in the world. God gave us free will so our love and pursuit of Him could actually mean something - we aren’t just robots programmed to be good. That comes with the big downside of all this sin and evil being in the world - but it’s a more real, and rich experience then it would be if we were all just programmed to think and live a certain way.
We have plenty of freedoms as American citizens - and that’s great. There are plenty of other countries that have the same freedoms, of course, so we aren’t really a standout in the world right now - but we were for a while. Living now is just so, so much better than hundreds of years ago - and we would be wise to think about that quite often.
But just because you live in a free country doesn’t mean you’re truly free. No one is less free than the free-wheeling addict. While that person is free to do what they want and satisfy their cravings and desires, they are very much a slave. They are not free to choose what is best for them because of the addiction - and that is something to be overcome. True freedom is overcoming your sinful nature, suppressing your bad impulses - not letting any earthly thing control you. Living your freedom within some limits. There are plenty of ways to screw up your freedom and your life - and it’s plenty tough to avoid especially nowadays with all of the instant gratification and freedom we have. But we should aspire to more than short-term pleasure and vanity.
Happy Independence Day, everybody!
Pitcher Standouts
The Robbie Raymeister did it again with 27 whiff daddies and 102 JA points. He struck out 12 and gave up just one barrel that went for a homer. He’s been a bit inconsistent, which I think we should expect - but his swing-and-miss stuff is still near the top of the league so he should have an overall dominant second-half, I think.
Framber Valdez had one of those “where did that come?” outings with 19 whiffs, beating his previous season-high by five full whiffs. The swing-and-miss is just not his game, and he didn’t change anything in terms of pitch usage in this start, he just somehow posted a 13.6% SwStr% on the sinker, which is ridiculous given the pitch’s 6% mark on the year. Do not expect more strikeouts from Valdez in the future now because of this start.
Charlie Morton once again went off. He has been a top-ten pitcher since early May when he really started figuring things out, and over his last six starts he has an insane 37%-6% K-BB%.
It’s all good there, so props to anybody who held on or bought low.
Hitter Standouts
Justin Turner has qualified on the Magic Formula for the first time all year (I think).
He has a 14% barrel rate and an 11.6% K% over the last three weeks while hitting .293/.362/.517 - so just maybe he’s really coming around for another strong second half of the season.
Ha-Seong Kim’s career continues to be weird. He was showing some really great sign signs in April, but then was one of the worst hitters in the league until recently. However, over his last 26 plate appearances he has massively improved with an 11.5% K% and a 10.5% Brl% while hitting .273/.385/.455 with a dinger. That’s a very small sample, of course, and over the last month of play he has just that one homer and a putrid 2.4% barrel rate.
Another hitter that started the season very well but then fell flat is Jeremy Pena, who had himself a big day yesterday with two barrels, a blast, and two dingers while making contact on all eight of his swings.
In his case, we could possibly blame the bad performance on some injury issues, and now that he’s back from the IL it will be interesting to see how he performs. For the season it’s still a strong combination with a 10.4% Brl and a 24% K%, but the contact rate is low at 69% and his barrel rate drops to 8.3% if we take April out of the equation.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 17.8 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Austin Pruitt (OAK): 18.2 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
3. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 20.2 SwStr%, 38.3 CSW%
4. Robbie Ray (SEA): 25.2 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
5. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 16.0 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
6. Charlie Morton (ATL): 14.9 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 17.3 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 11.8 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
9. Adam Wainwright (STL): 8.7 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
10. Tyler Wells (BAL): 15.6 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Robbie Ray - 6.67 IP - 102.0 JA Points
2. Brandon Woodruff - 6.0 IP - 87.75 JA Points
3. Charlie Morton - 6.67 IP - 79.75 JA Points
4. Framber Valdez - 5.67 IP - 76.75 JA Points
5. Clayton Kershaw - 7.0 IP - 67.25 JA Points
6. Shane Baz - 6.0 IP - 57.5 JA Points
7. Tyler Wells - 6.0 IP - 57.0 JA Points
8. Jordan Montgomery - 5.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
9. Carlos Carrasco - 5.33 IP - 51.5 JA Points
10. Lucas Giolito - 6.0 IP - 51.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 16 GS - 55.39 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 7 GS - 54.38 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 16 GS - 54.03 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 16 GS - 53.66 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 11 GS - 52.62 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 13 GS - 50.01 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 16 GS - 46.76 JA Points
8. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 9 GS - 46.56 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 15 GS - 46.14 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Charlie Morton's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 89.9
Clayton Kershaw's SL velo (40 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.7
Pablo Lopez's FF velo (42 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.3
Chad Kuhl's SI velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.0
Chad Kuhl's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 90.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Wainwright's SI usage (42.7%) up 13.5 points
Austin Pruitt's FF usage (36.4%) up 11.6 points
Carlos Carrasco's CH usage (33.3%) up 10.2 points
Chad Kuhl's FF usage (18.5%) up 15.0 points
Chad Kuhl's CH usage (18.5%) up 10.5 points
Devin Smeltzer's FF usage (54.1%) up 16.7 points
Erick Fedde's SI usage (54.7%) up 19.4 points
Jordan Montgomery's SI usage (52.1%) up 16.7 points
Jose Suarez's CH usage (44.3%) up 18.1 points
Luis Castillo's FF usage (51.5%) up 25.2 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (26.2%) up 14.4 points
Sean Hjelle's CU usage (49.1%) up 15.8 points
Zach Thompson's SI usage (41.8%) up 14.1 points
Zack Wheeler's FF usage (50.9%) up 11.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 93 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 93 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 93 TBF, 41.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 39.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 39.1% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.7% K%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 34.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 93 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 111 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 111 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 83 TBF, 70.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 123 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 92 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 81 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 76 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 102 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 58.2% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 77 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 56.6% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Shane Baz - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6 K%, 3.2 BB%, 58.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Charlie Morton - +3.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +4.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Luis Garcia - +4.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Dylan Cease - +3.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +3.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +5.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Patrick Corbin - +3.6% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Jose Quintana - +2.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Cristian Javier - +4.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Sam Long - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
C.J. Cron (COL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jeremy Pena - 5.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Marcell Ozuna - 4.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points
3. Kody Clemens - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Edward Olivares - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
5. C.J. Cron - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
6. Ji-Man Choi - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Julio Rodriguez - 3.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
9. J.T. Realmuto - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
10. Luke Williams - 2.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 285.0 PA - 149.61 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 254.0 PA - 135.59 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 333.0 PA - 124.68 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 337.0 PA - 117.03 JA Points
5. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 330.0 PA - 114.79 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 341.0 PA - 113.67 JA Points
7. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 294.0 PA - 112.11 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 268.0 PA - 109.1 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 297.0 PA - 107.61 JA Points
10. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 313.0 PA - 107.22 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 113.7mph - nan
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 113.1mph - nan
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.8mph - field_out
Darick Hall (PHI) - 112.8mph - nan
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.5mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 112.4mph - double
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) - 111.7mph - nan
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.3mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.3mph - nan
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 111.1mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Luke Voit - 79 PA, 44 BIP, 13 Brls, 29.5 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 57 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 83 PA, 59 BIP, 14 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 80 PA, 55 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.6 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 55 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 90 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 72 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 87 PA, 141 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 49 PA, 82 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 80 PA, 132 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 64 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 62 PA, 113 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Austin Nola - 49 PA, 83 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 68 PA, 107 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 56 PA, 82 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 59 PA, 119 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 76 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 73 PA, 6.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.0 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 69 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Jose Altuve - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Josh Bell - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Justin Turner - 69 PA, 17.4 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 11.3 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Matt Olson - 83 PA, 15.7 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 83 PA, 16.9 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 69 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 26.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Bo Bichette - +4.7% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -5.4 Chase%
Alex Verdugo - +9.0% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -17.4 Chase%
Marcell Ozuna - +17.8% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -14.0 Chase%
Will Smith - +5.9% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +8.8% Contact%, +8.8 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Shohei Ohtani - +9.7% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
J.T. Realmuto - +7.8% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Josh Rojas - +6.9% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -8.1 Chase%
Josh VanMeter - +21.2% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jorge Mateo - 34.1% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.951 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 37.7% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.937 Cold Rating
Avisail Garcia - 35.9% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 32.9% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 30.7% Whiff%, 88.9% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Trent Grisham - 30.9% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 32.5% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 31.7% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Jose Trevino - 31.0% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Jack Suwinski - 29.5% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
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