MLB Daily Notes - July 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Happy Independence Day! I read recently in a BOOK that Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the same day, and that same day was July 4th, 1826.
That date being the 50th anniversary of the original July 4th. Pretty wild stuff, right? Some say it was a sign of divine providence on America. Some say it wasn’t even true, and it was just a made-up story because it sounded cool. Either one could be true; what do I know!
But anyway, there’s some trivia you can use today.
I won’t get into how much I love and appreciate our country today because there’s lots to do. But I am hyped to live where and when I do.
They bring a fire truck into the neighborhood for the kids to check out and they can all have ice cream and follow the truck around the block on their bikes. The kids get really excited about it, which just goes to show you how easily kids get excited.
Fire trucks are fine, I guess. Seems to me like they are much more often used for parades than for… fighting fires. So they get a little full of themselves, but someday I will light my house on fire trying to make a hot dog and I’ll be glad to see one pull up.
Pitcher Review
I really regret backing away on Joey Estes a few weeks ago, because I would be looking studly right now if I hadn’t.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 K, 1 BB, 16.3% SwStr%, 26.1% Ball%
The elusive CGSO. He drops his season ERA to 4.39 with a 1.12 WHIP on a 19% K% and 6% BB%. So that’s not a very good K-BB%, and he’s certainly not dominating hitters (11.6% SwStr%), but he throws a lot of quality pitches (107 Pitching+), and he’s had some really nice results lately. He made his way into my one DraftKings lineup, and I ended up with another big night, so Estes is firmly back in my good graces.
Good to see Shota Imanaga rack up eight strikeouts, that part of his game had been lacking lately.
6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 8 K, 1 BB, 53.5% Strike%, 16.3% SwStr%, 27.9% Ball%
Dean Kremer returned and wasted no time. He earned 16 whiffs and struck out Mariners on 83 pitches (five innings). Great line for him. The story with Kremer is that he’s a middle-of-the-road pitcher. The floor is decent, and the ceiling is pretty low. He’s more of a streamer option than someone to pick up and ride out. Since last year:
40 GS, 46.1% Strike%, 36.4% Ball%, 21.9% K%, 7.7% BB%, .718 OPS allowed
Solid arm, a little bit better than me at throwing a baseball, but not someone to go out of your way for in fantasy.
David Festa’s second start did not go well:
5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 6 K, 0 BB
That got him rage-dropped in my league, a beautiful thing to see as we’ve been talking about lately.
The good news was a 16% SwStr%, 50.6% Strike%, and a 27.2% Ball%. Those marks are really encouraging.
His first start was good in the box score but bad under the hood, and now this one reverses that. So I don’t know what to say about Festa, we’ll wait and see (if he even stays in the Majors).
The Gavin Williams debut wasn’t good:
4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 9.5% SwStr%, 39.2% Strike%
As always, we should not judge anybody on one start, and even less so when it’s their season debut after multiple injuries.
The Gavin Stone breakout was halted:
3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 3 BB, 7.8% SwStr%
Good time to try to buy him. We have seen all kinds of positive signs on him recently.
Christian Scott returned and kept the tough times for rookie pitchers going.
5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 K, 2 BB
Not a horrible box score line, so he still hasn’t had a truly bad start, but under the hood, it was miserable:
6.1% SwStr%, 45.5% Strike%, 34.3% Ball%
He has not been very convincing to me since the first two starts.
No time for hitter review, it is time for me to go touch that firetruck.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Dean Kremer
2. Joey Estes
3. Jordan Hicks
4. Mitchell Parker
5. Shota Imanaga
6. David Festa
7. Chris Sale
8. Michael Wacha
9. Trevor Rogers
10. Carlos Rodon
11. Jared Jones
12. Zack Wheeler
13. Logan Gilbert
14. Brayan Bello
15. Yusei Kikuchi
16. Colin Rea
17. Cristian Mena
18. Davis Daniel
19. Keider Montero
20. Jon Gray
21. Ronel Blanco
22. Ryan Pepiot
23. Adam Mazur
24. Gavin Stone
25. Gavin Williams
26. Miles Mikolas
27. Andrew Abbott
28. Christian Scott
29. Erick Fedde
30. Dakota Hudson
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (vs. SF): 30.5 Points
2. Dean Kremer (vs. SEA): 28.85 Points
3. Joey Estes (vs. LAA): 28.65 Points
4. Michael Wacha (vs. TB): 28.5 Points
5. Brayan Bello (vs. MIA): 26.21 Points
6. Colin Rea (vs. COL): 24.15 Points
7. Zack Wheeler (vs. CHC): 19.3 Points
8. Shota Imanaga (vs. PHI): 19.3 Points
9. Carlos Rodon (vs. CIN): 18.99 Points
10. Keider Montero (vs. MIN): 18.04 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jordan Hicks (SF): 17 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Michael Wacha (KC): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Dean Kremer (BAL): 16 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
4. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Joey Estes (OAK): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 14 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
9. Chris Sale (ATL): 13 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
10. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dane Dunning (TEX): 63.8 Strike%, 24.1 Ball%
2. Dean Kremer (BAL): 59.0 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
3. Chris Sale (ATL): 55.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 53.5 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
5. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 52.4 Strike%, 38.1 Ball%
6. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 51.2 Strike%, 27.4 Ball%
7. David Festa (MIN): 50.6 Strike%, 27.2 Ball%
8. Jared Jones (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
9. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 50.0 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
10. Gavin Stone (LAD): 49.4 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 49.4 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
12. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 48.4 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
13. Jordan Hicks (SF): 48.3 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Michael Wacha (KC): 47.4 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
15. Colin Rea (MIL): 47.4 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joey Estes: 92 Pitches, 27 Outs, 3.41 POUT
2. Keider Montero: 80 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.21 POUT
3. Brayan Bello: 91 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.55 POUT
4. Mitchell Parker: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
5. Shota Imanaga: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
6. Miles Mikolas: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Colin Rea: 97 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.85 POUT
8. Erick Fedde: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
9. Andrew Abbott: 98 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.16 POUT
10. Jared Jones: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Gavin Williams's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 4.0mph to 80.4
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 83.7
Mitchell Parker's FS velo (18 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.6
Gavin Stone's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.3
Gavin Stone's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 90.0
Miles Mikolas's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 77.5
Michael Wacha's FF velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.1
Michael Wacha's FC velo (23 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.1
Dean Kremer's FC velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.7
Dane Dunning's SI velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 88.9
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 81.0
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (40 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 94.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Rodon's CH usage (23.2%) up 14.9 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (28.9%) up 17.7 points
Dane Dunning's CH usage (31.0%) up 15.9 points
Davis Daniel's SL usage (31.8%) up 10.1 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (31.3%) up 27.5 points
Gavin Williams's FC usage (27.0%) up 25.1 points
Jordan Hicks's ST usage (36.0%) up 14.4 points
Michael Wacha's FC usage (23.7%) up 12.1 points
Michael Wacha's SL usage (14.4%) up 10.8 points
Peter Lambert's FF usage (56.0%) up 12.7 points
Trevor Rogers's FF usage (47.6%) up 14.2 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jose Soriano Sinker: +20.7%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +20.1%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.7%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.7%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.4%
Christian Scott Slider: -16.5%
Jose Soriano Curveball: -15.9%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +14.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +14.5%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.5%
Mitch Keller Curveball: +14.3%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -14.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +13.4%
Hogan Harris Slider: +13.3%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.3%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: +12.7%
Mitch Spence Sinker: +12.3%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 100 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 76 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 80 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4% K%
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Taj Bradley - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 69 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 68 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 82 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 76 TBF, 63.2% GB%
Jake Irvin - 65 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 79 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 102 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Tanner Houck - 103 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Taj Bradley - 97 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Garrett Crochet - 99 TBF, 38.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Huascar Brazoban - 55 TBF, 27.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 58 TBF, 31.0 K%, 1.7 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 56.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Austin Gomber: 8.65 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 7.31 ERA, 3.4 SIERA
Triston McKenzie: 9.33 ERA, 5.46 SIERA
Jon Gray: 8.1 ERA, 5.0 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 6.09 ERA, 3.1 SIERA
JP Sears: 7.94 ERA, 5.13 SIERA
Slade Cecconi: 6.2 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 7.22 ERA, 4.49 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 7.03 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Spencer Schwellenbach: 5.74 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
Luckiest
Hunter Brown: 0.29 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 1.44 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 1.41 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Andrew Abbott: 3.0 ERA, 5.68 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 3.6 ERA, 5.59 SIERA
Jake Irvin: 2.17 ERA, 4.1 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 3.2 ERA, 4.99 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 2.67 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.67 ERA, 4.44 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 1.24 ERA, 2.95 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
MacKenzie Gore - +2.4% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Ryan Feltner - +3.0% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +2.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Justin Steele - +4.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Cal Quantrill - +5.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Joe Ryan - +5.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.1% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +2.7% CSW%, -8.8 BB%
Patrick Corbin - +2.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +9.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.1% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +7.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Adrian Houser - +5.5% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Christian Walker (ARI) 6 PA, 17 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Christian Yelich (MIL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Garcia (WSH) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 113.2mph - double
Manny Machado (SD) - 112.0mph - nan
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.9mph - home_run
Riley Greene (DET) - 111.8mph - home_run
MJ Melendez (KC) - 111.8mph - field_out
Wyatt Langford (TEX) - 111.8mph - nan
Nick Fortes (MIA) - 111.6mph - nan
Noelvi Marte (CIN) - 111.5mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.5mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.4mph - double
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