MLB Daily Notes: July 5, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
People really go hard on fireworks here in Granger, Indiana. I’m more on board with it than I’m off board with it, so to speak - it’s pretty dope to walk around my neighborhood seeing different fireworks and wild stuff in every direction (one of the advantages of flat land). The downside is that it’s tough for kids to sleep through, and the other downside is that people don’t just do it on July 3rd and 4th - last year we had like 5 extra nights of this, so I’m crossing my fingers that everybody around my house blew it all up last night and we don’t have a repeat of it.
The funny part was that they actually slept through the fireworks, but there was a thunderstorm shortly after the fireworks ended and that happened to wake them both up… so my wife and I didn’t get much sleep. I took an extra day off of work consequently to let her sleep and to just lighten the load today - but here I am on the notes, fully committed. I’d never skip a day on you.
Eric Lauer’s weird fastball performance yesterday inspired a new Google Sheet, and this one if free for all. He racked up 23 whiffs, 21 of which were on his four-seamer fastball.
Remember a week ago when we talked about how ridiculous it was for Luis Castillo to get 19 whiffs on his four-seamer? Well, Lauer made a joke out of that, and here we are again. The new sheet counts up the whiffs for every pitcher for every start for every pitch type. It shows their whiff totals from the start as well as breaking it down by pitch type:
It is sorted by individual pitch type whiffs, which puts on top. You can sort by “Total Whiffs” (I think Google lets read-access users filter & sort - right? Someone confirm) - and that will show you the highest whiff counts for individual starts like this:
It’s all quite beautiful and done very simply with a couple of groupby’s and a merge using Python’s Pandas package.
Some pre-work in there to clean & enhance the savant data set, but after I figured out the best way to load the data and do all of that, this stuff becomes incredibly easy and quick - it’s just the greatest.
Lauer’s fastball usage was dumb (63%), but I guess that’s okay if you can really put up a 33% SwStr% on it - the problem is that you can’t actually do that on a regular basis, so you should still be selling Lauer I think.
This Kutter Crawford fella had a pretty nice start as well, throwing a really well-distributed collection of pitches, including the cutter!
They don’t call him Four-Seamer Crawford, so we see a nice 12.5% SwStr% on the cutter, but the other stuff was pretty good as well. For the year he has:
25 IP
28.6% K%
10.7% BB%
32.4% GB%
12.7% SwStr%
26.9% CSW%
So the swing-and-miss stuff is there, but definite hints of bad command in the profile - and the super low ground-ball rate is not encouraging especially given the home park he’s in.
MJ Melendez was the hitter of the day with two blasts, two barrels, and two homers. He has not lived up to the early hype we had for him - he’s now at just a .223/.310/.413 line with a 23.2% K%, an 11.3% BB%, and a 9.0% Brl%.
Juan Yepez also had a double-barrel game and is now hitting .281/.321/.522 with a 22.3% K% and a 10.1% Brl%. So that’s a really nice pairing, and it’s a great lineup for RBI production. I dropped Brandon Belt for him yesterday in my home league, which gives us a chance to point out how stupid wrong I was on Belt a few weeks ago:
But the early data on Yepez is very encouraging, so I’d be picking him up if he’s available.
Luis Arraez also had two barrels, bringing his season barrel rate up to 4.5% - which is very low but hey we’ve seen him at 0% in the past. I think he’s earned the must-start tag now with the insane .348 batting average on his 92% contact rate, and he’s firmly in the top two of the lineup. The 46 runs he’s scored make him a positive contributor in that category - and he’s added four homers and two steals - so he’s really not a zero anywhere - and he’s probably the top bat in the league for batting average purposes. I’m guessing he’s not available - but if he is jump on it.
I’m keeping an eye on Ha-Seong Kim since he suddenly showed up in the “hot hitter” tracker a few days ago, he had two more hits yesterday, both line-drive singles (one over 95 mph qualifying as “hard hit”). Probably nothing to do about this, but it’s interesting to follow some of these dudes who show up in the hot hitter tracker - maybe I should start logging some stuff to see if there’s anything to this whole business.
If we look back to the notes from last Monday, these are the hitters who were deemed to be hot:
June 27 Hot Hitter Tracker
Patrick Wisdom - +5.9% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
Jose Abreu - +6.9% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Andrew Benintendi - +14.6% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -11.3 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +8.0% Contact%, +7.9 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Alex Verdugo - +3.9% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -8.1 Chase%
Rowdy Tellez - +10.2% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -18.6 Chase%
Ryan McMahon - +8.0% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Rafael Ortega - +9.4% Contact%, +5.5 mph exit velo, -13.3 Chase%
Rafael Devers - +10.4% Contact%, +8.4 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
And then we can use the dashboard to see all of their stats starting on June 27th:
Massive weeks for Abreu, Rodgers, Verdugo, and Benintendi. Good power production from Tellez and Wisdom, and only two real busts from McMahon and Ortega. We shouldn’t be surprised to see a huge week from Abreu when the weather is hot - but I don’t know, overall this is a small victory for the hot hitter tracker.
Someone should start tracking this stuff for me daily, looking back one week like we just did. I will pay you Producer Lee’s daily salary.
We have nine currently “hot” hitters - which you will see when you scroll the whole way down.
Alrighty well, that’s enough talk, I really hope my boss doesn’t read these notes cause he’ll call out my personal day REAL QUICK if he does.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Bundy (MIN): 20.7 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
2. Eric Lauer (MIL): 22.8 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
3. Justin Steele (CHC): 13.0 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
4. Carlos Rodon (SF): 10.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
5. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 13.4 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
6. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 14.5 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
7. Kyle Wright (ATL): 8.5 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
8. Josh Fleming (TB): 14.0 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
9. Taijuan Walker (NYM): 8.2 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
10. Chris Flexen (SEA): 11.7 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Eric Lauer - 5.67 IP - 82.5 JA Points
2. Justin Steele - 6.67 IP - 64.5 JA Points
3. Kutter Crawford - 5.33 IP - 61.25 JA Points
4. Taijuan Walker - 5.67 IP - 57.75 JA Points
5. Braxton Garrett - 7.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
6. Chris Flexen - 6.67 IP - 45.75 JA Points
7. Josh Fleming - 5.0 IP - 44.75 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon - 5.0 IP - 40.25 JA Points
9. Dylan Bundy - 5.0 IP - 39.75 JA Points
10. Alek Manoah - 5.67 IP - 37.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 16 GS - 55.39 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 7 GS - 54.38 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 16 GS - 54.03 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 16 GS - 53.66 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 11 GS - 52.62 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 13 GS - 50.01 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 16 GS - 46.76 JA Points
8. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 9 GS - 46.56 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 16 GS - 45.81 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kutter Crawford's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 89.1
Chris Flexen's FC velo (36 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 89.1
Chris Flexen's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.5
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.2
Braxton Garrett's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 79.8
Jonathan Heasley's CU velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.0
Alek Manoah's FF velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chris Flexen's SL usage (17.5%) up 13.6 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (47.4%) up 16.9 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (32.4%) up 20.1 points
Dylan Bundy's CH usage (31.0%) up 11.7 points
Eric Lauer's FF usage (63.4%) up 16.3 points
Hunter Greene's FF usage (62.6%) up 11.9 points
Johnny Cueto's CH usage (37.6%) up 15.7 points
Josh Fleming's SI usage (72.0%) up 22.1 points
Justin Steele's SL usage (39.8%) up 11.1 points
Kutter Crawford's CU usage (24.4%) up 14.6 points
Kyle Wright's CU usage (47.9%) up 16.5 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (50.5%) up 17.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 93 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 93 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 39.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 39.1% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.7% K%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 34.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 92 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 93 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 83 TBF, 70.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 92 TBF, 64.9% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 99 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 92 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 77 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Kyle Wright - 99 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 102 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 77 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 56.6% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Shane Baz - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6 K%, 3.2 BB%, 58.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Charlie Morton - +3.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Luis Garcia - +4.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Max Fried - +2.2% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +5.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jose Quintana - +2.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +5.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Cristian Javier - +4.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Sam Long - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Juan Yepez (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Arraez (MIN) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Luis Arraez - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
2. MJ Melendez - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
3. Carlos Santana - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Eric Haase - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Brandon Nimmo - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Mark Canha - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Abraham Toro - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
10. Ramon Laureano - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 290.0 PA - 152.14 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 258.0 PA - 135.04 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 333.0 PA - 124.68 JA Points
4. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 334.0 PA - 118.92 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 342.0 PA - 114.74 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 342.0 PA - 114.62 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 302.0 PA - 113.91 JA Points
8. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 298.0 PA - 112.62 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 272.0 PA - 108.97 JA Points
10. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 240.0 PA - 104.67 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 116.5mph - double
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 114.2mph - foul
Seth Brown (OAK) - 112.9mph - single
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 112.6mph - home_run
Trayce Thompson (LAD) - 111.8mph - foul
Franmil Reyes (CLE) - 111.4mph - double
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 111.4mph - double_play
Carlos Santana (SEA) - 111.3mph - single
Juan Yepez (STL) - 110.9mph - single
Javier Baez (DET) - 110.2mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Luke Voit - 79 PA, 43 BIP, 13 Brls, 30.2 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 59 PA, 35 BIP, 10 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 87 PA, 64 BIP, 15 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 51 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 61 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 81 PA, 58 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 72 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 87 PA, 139 Swings, 92.8 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 49 PA, 82 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 84 PA, 137 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 65 PA, 108 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 65 PA, 119 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 68 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 56 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 52 PA, 78 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 57 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Yonathan Daza - 67 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 72 PA, 6.9 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 22.0 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Jose Altuve - 79 PA, 12.7 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Josh Bell - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 87 PA, 18.4 K%, 23.4 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 11.3 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Matt Olson - 82 PA, 15.9 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 15.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Bo Bichette - +4.5% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Marcell Ozuna - +17.4% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -12.4 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +7.7% Contact%, +8.6 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Will Smith - +6.9% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +5.0% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -15.5 Chase%
Josh Rojas - +3.6% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Jonathan Schoop - +4.5% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -11.0 Chase%
Christian Vazquez - +10.3% Contact%, +8.3 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
J.T. Realmuto - +7.8% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jorge Mateo - 35.2% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.944 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 38.7% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Avisail Garcia - 35.5% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.925 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 32.9% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 36.0% Whiff%, 71.8% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 43.6% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.901 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 33.8% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Trent Grisham - 31.8% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.896 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 32.1% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.878 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 28.8% Whiff%, 91.7% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
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