MLB Daily Notes - July 5th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Not much time for review here. The Statcast data was delayed, and I am off work again today with the 4th falling on a Thursday. So that means I have to do actual work today.
But, quickly to some things that happened yesterday.
Pitcher Review
Jake Irvin beat the Mets 1-0 in what had to be one of the earliest end-game times in history. That game was over by 1:10 pm Eastern time, I think. He went 8 innings, allowing j just one hit, no runs, and a beautiful 8:1 K:BB. He has a 2.80 ERA now and a 3.73 SIERA. That’s a big gap, but it’s still a pretty decent SIERA.
The bad side of Cristopher Sanchez came out, giving up seven runs to the Cubs. The command wasn’t there with three walks and just a 43% Strike%. It’s going to be up-and-down with Sanchez; we have talked about that a lot with him, and this one was a down. You’re probably still starting him every time in any kind of league of depth.
Andre Pallante was great against the Pirates. He pitched seven innings of one-run ball on four hits, striking out five but generating just seven whiffs.
Everything else went pretty much according to expectation, so I don’t have much else to add here with my short amount of free time to write.
Hitter Review
The biggest hitting performance of the day came from Ian Happ, who hit two homers in that big Cubs win. He has been awesome for awhile now with a .966 OPS since May 15th. That’s 12 homers, 27 runs, 37 RBI, and six steals - good for 12th in total fantasy points over this long stretch. A very underrated fantasy contributor is Happ.
Jose Miranda scored the second-most points with four hits. He has quietly posted a .312/.354/.504, .859 OPS line with eight homers on an elite 14% K% and 6% BB%. The playing time is solidified now, not only due to his performance, but Royce Lewis going back in the casket opens up some stuff as well.
I think I would add both of these guys if available in any 12-team league or deeper. Neither guy has a massive upside or ceiling, but there really is something to be said for those solid contributors.
Christian Walker hit two homers, and then everybody started talking about how good he was in Dodgers Stadium. Only five hitters have hit more homers than Walker since 2022. CAN YOU NAME THEM? I bet you can; it’s really not that surprising of a list. I’ll put some SPACE here so you can not see the answers if you want to try your hand at guessing.
S
P
A
C
E
S
P
A
C
E
Judge 131
Schwarber 110
Ohtani 105
Alonso 104
Olson 100
Walker 91
Walk’s 20.4% K% is the best of the entire bunch there, although his .829 OPS lags behind most of those names.
Steven Kwan has just 19 homers in 2022 (1,600+ PAs), but friggin eight of them are this year. He’s homered at a league-average pace this season, which is completely ridiculous and simply cannot continue. If you have Kwan and Reynaldo Lopez, you should trade them today for any top-30 player. I bet you can do it, and I bet you’ll be pumped about it later if you do.
And that will have to do it. I’m off to make myself an omelette and then go to a park or something. Grammarly doesn’t know how to spell omelette… I’m getting sick of this thing. Paying this service to yell at me all the time and then give me a false recommendation on how to spell omelette (I actually think Grammarly has massively helped me with typos and whatnot).
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober
2. Nick Pivetta
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Tobias Myers
5. Jake Irvin
6. Jameson Taillon
7. Michael King
8. JP Sears
9. Marcus Stroman
10. Logan Webb
11. Cristopher Sanchez
12. Ben Lively
13. Max Scherzer
14. Kyle Tyler
15. Kenta Maeda
16. Zac Gallen
17. Bryce Miller
18. Andre Pallante
19. Landon Knack
20. Zach Eflin
21. Jose Quintana
22. Cal Quantrill
23. Frankie Montas
24. Charlie Morton
25. Alec Marsh
26. Martin Perez
27. Chris Bassitt
28. Roansy Contreras
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jake Irvin (vs. NYM): 36.8 Points
2. Nick Pivetta (vs. MIA): 33.95 Points
3. Jameson Taillon (vs. PHI): 27.35 Points
4. Bailey Ober (vs. DET): 27.3 Points
5. JP Sears (vs. LAA): 25.45 Points
6. Logan Webb (vs. ATL): 22.95 Points
7. Andre Pallante (vs. PIT): 20.75 Points
8. Michael King (vs. TEX): 20.39 Points
9. Justin Martinez (vs. LAD): 19.55 Points
10. Ben Lively (vs. CWS): 19.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (MIN): 22 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
2. Tobias Myers (MIL): 19 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
3. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 18 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
5. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Jake Irvin (WSH): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
7. Michael King (SD): 13 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
8. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
9. JP Sears (OAK): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
10. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 12 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 59.6 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
2. Bailey Ober (MIN): 57.3 Strike%, 25.2 Ball%
3. Logan Webb (SF): 53.8 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
4. Jake Irvin (WSH): 53.5 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
5. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 51.1 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
6. JP Sears (OAK): 50.5 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
7. Ben Lively (CLE): 50.5 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
8. Michael King (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
9. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 50.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
10. Tobias Myers (MIL): 49.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
11. Marcus Stroman (NYY): 48.5 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
12. Bryce Miller (SEA): 48.4 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
13. Zac Gallen (ARI): 48.2 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
14. Landon Knack (LAD): 47.1 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
15. Max Scherzer (TEX): 45.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jake Irvin: 99 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.12 POUT
2. Jameson Taillon: 88 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.19 POUT
3. Martin Perez: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
4. Nick Pivetta: 89 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.45 POUT
5. Andre Pallante: 90 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.5 POUT
6. Jose Quintana: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
7. Max Scherzer: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Framber Valdez: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
9. Ben Lively: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
10. Logan Webb: 104 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.2 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 80.9
Zac Gallen's FF velo (50 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 95.9
Chad Kuhl's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 88.2
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (29 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 85.4
Bryce Miller's ST velo (10 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.2
Marcus Stroman's SI velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.4
Max Scherzer's FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 92.0
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 81.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's ST usage (20.4%) up 10.5 points
Bryce Miller's FS usage (28.0%) up 20.0 points
Chad Kuhl's CH usage (20.2%) up 14.2 points
JP Sears's ST usage (35.8%) up 10.4 points
JP Sears's SI usage (16.8%) up 12.8 points
Jameson Taillon's ST usage (29.5%) up 14.0 points
Joey Wentz's CH usage (33.3%) up 15.1 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (30.8%) up 21.4 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (24.2%) up 10.2 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (21.2%) up 10.7 points
Nick Pivetta's ST usage (27.0%) up 16.2 points
Roansy Contreras's CH usage (22.6%) up 16.5 points
Tobias Myers's SL usage (38.6%) up 20.4 points
Zach Eflin's FF usage (20.8%) up 13.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jose Soriano Sinker: +20.7%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +20.1%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +18.7%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%
Luis Severino Sinker: +17.7%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.4%
Christian Scott Slider: -16.5%
Jose Soriano Curveball: -15.9%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.6%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -15.2%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Andrew Heaney Slider: +14.5%
Kyle Hendricks Curveball: +14.5%
Graham Ashcraft Cutter: +14.5%
Mitch Keller Curveball: +14.3%
Graham Ashcraft Sinker: -14.0%
Sean Manaea Slider: +13.4%
Hogan Harris Slider: +13.3%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +13.3%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Kyle Freeland Sinker: +12.7%
Cal Quantrill Cutter: +12.4%
Mitch Spence Sinker: +12.3%
Kyle Hendricks Changeup: -12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 103 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.8% CSW%
Justin Steele - 79 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Bailey Ober - 103 TBF, 34.0% K%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Taj Bradley - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
DJ Herz - 80 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 69 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Tanner Bibee - 67 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 92 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 103 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Kutter Crawford - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 85 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 98 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 76 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Ben Lively - 91 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Tanner Houck - 76 TBF, 53.7% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
A.J. Puk - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 2.3 BB%, 51.7% GB%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 1.3 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 33.8 K%, 1.4 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Grant Holmes - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Huascar Brazoban - 55 TBF, 27.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Sean Hjelle - 58 TBF, 31.0 K%, 1.7 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Seth Lugo - 96 TBF, 31.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 4.6 BB%, 56.1% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Austin Gomber: 8.65 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Carlos Rodon: 7.31 ERA, 3.4 SIERA
Luis Gil: 8.85 ERA, 5.4 SIERA
Jon Gray: 8.1 ERA, 5.0 SIERA
Adam Mazur: 9.29 ERA, 6.24 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 6.09 ERA, 3.1 SIERA
Kenta Maeda: 7.54 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Slade Cecconi: 6.2 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
Cole Irvin: 7.22 ERA, 4.49 SIERA
Brayan Bello: 7.03 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Luckiest
Hunter Brown: 0.29 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
Andrew Abbott: 3.0 ERA, 5.68 SIERA
Jake Irvin: 1.7 ERA, 4.1 SIERA
Tobias Myers: 2.17 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 3.6 ERA, 5.59 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 2.19 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 3.2 ERA, 4.99 SIERA
Matt Waldron: 2.67 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.67 ERA, 4.44 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.0 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jameson Taillon - +2.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Justin Steele - +4.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Joe Ryan - +5.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +4.3% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.1% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Patrick Corbin - +2.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +9.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.1% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Sean Hjelle - +7.0% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +4.5% CSW%, -8.3 BB%
Adrian Houser - +6.2% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brandon Lowe (TB) 6 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Walker (ARI) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (NYY) 4 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Lawrence Butler (OAK) 4 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nick Gonzales (PIT) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Lenyn Sosa, Yesterday: 110.7 Previous High: 108.2
Hardest Hit Balls
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 115.2mph - nan
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.6mph - double
Jo Adell (LAA) - 113.3mph - nan
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 113.0mph - double
Ian Happ (CHC) - 112.0mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.9mph - sac_fly
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 111.6mph - nan
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.6mph - double
Matt Chapman (SF) - 111.0mph - home_run
Vidal Brujan (MIA) - 110.7mph - nan
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Julio Rodriguez - 72 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.351 xwOBA, 0.139 Diff
Andres Gimenez - 76 PA, 0.233 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.139 Diff
Tyler Soderstrom - 69 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 58 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Otto Lopez - 59 PA, 0.2 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, 0.118 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 70 PA, 0.263 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Nick Loftin - 58 PA, 0.2 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.104 Diff
Marcus Semien - 81 PA, 0.166 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Oneil Cruz - 61 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Gio Urshela - 63 PA, 0.16 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Bottom 10
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 0.448 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, -0.175 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 64 PA, 0.473 wOBA, 0.339 xwOBA, -0.134 Diff
Bryce Harper - 59 PA, 0.517 wOBA, 0.406 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Jesse Winker - 57 PA, 0.441 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Ian Happ - 76 PA, 0.5 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Cedric Mullins II - 63 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 77 PA, 0.49 wOBA, 0.394 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 0.404 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
C.J. Abrams - 75 PA, 0.483 wOBA, 0.399 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Miguel Rojas - 56 PA, 0.375 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 69 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Josh Lowe - 61 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Austin Riley - 76 PA, 54 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Brandon Lowe - 47 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Mark Vientos - 71 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Michael Toglia - 79 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 66 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Christian Walker - 76 PA, 60 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 81 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Austin Riley - 76 PA, 0.51 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 81 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 77 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Jose Miranda - 69 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 65 PA, 0.449 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 69 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 58 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
J.D. Martinez - 74 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Jonathan India - 79 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Manuel Margot - 51 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 124 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 142 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 53 PA, 84 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Justin Turner - 63 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 56 PA, 95 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 67 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Brice Turang - 91 PA, 178 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 83 PA, 134 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Cedric Mullins II - 63 PA, 129 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Gio Urshela - 63 PA, 137 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (2 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Christian Yelich - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Stuart Fairchild - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Josh Lowe - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Forrest Wall - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach Neto - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Brice Turang - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Richie Palacios - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
J.P. Crawford - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Paul Goldschmidt - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Willi Castro - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ryan Kreidler - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Altuve - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Lane Thomas - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
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