MLB Daily Notes: July 6, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
It seems that Jose Ramirez might be injured.
I’m not sure what you do about this, but it could be interesting to take a leap of faith and trade him away in redraft leagues. You should get full market value on him and there’s at least a higher than average chance right now he hits the IL if the thumb is really a problem. I’m not endorsing anything, so… do what you will with this information.
Brayan Bello will debut on the mound for Boston tonight, and my oh my is this guy interesting. This season in the minors he has gone for a K% above 33% and a GB% above 63%.
The only pitcher doing anything even close to this in the Majors as a starter this year is Aaron Ashby (28% K%, 63% GB%) - and we’ve seen how good that can be.
Opening it up to relievers, the other names with K% above 28% and GB% above 55%
Jhoan Duran (2.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
John Schreiber (0.66 ERA, 0.66 WHIP)
Alex Lange (2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Emmanuel Clase (1.31 ERA, 0.82 WHIP)
You can see what I’m getting at here! But look, assuming that Bello will come into the bigs and replicate a 28%+ K% and a 55%+ GB% is a pretty bad assumption to make. It is true that K% and GB% are pretty “sticky” between the minors and Majors, but it’s not going to be shocking if he’s a completely different guy facing these Major League bats all day long. All of that said, the numbers are pointing me to being very, very excited for this kid - so I am telling you all to add him right now if he’s available.
Nick Lodolo was incredible in his return from the IL, which was super encouraging given it was about as tough a matchup as you can get against the Mets at home.
He racked up 15 whiffs on 89 pitches (16.9% SwStr%), striking out 8 of the 20 batters he faced (40% K%). The 12% SwStr% on the sinker (the league-leading sinker is Robbie Ray’s at 15.1%) is an elite number, and you can see he was dominant with the curveball as well.
What held him back was three walks, but that shouldn’t be a huge concern right now given the 6% BB% he posted in 2021. This is another young SP you should be looking to acquire right now if available.
The other big SP outings were Max Scherzer (15 whiffs, 11 strikeouts, no walks) and Sandy Alcantara (18 whiffs, 10 strikeouts, no walks) - but that’s just “ho-hum” so no use in spending time there. Mike Clevinger had a bad outing by the box score but did put up 14 whiffs, a decent mark. His command really hasn’t been there this year but he’s had some encouraging starts lately so I think you should hold on a bit longer to him.
Alex Kirilloff homered twice on two barrels and one blast. Since his return to the Majors, he has hit .306/.328/.548 with an 11.8% Brl% and a wild 57% hard-hit rate while striking out just 19% of the time and posting a hardly-believable 83% contact rate.
The only players in the league that have managed a Brl% above 10% and a Cont% above 80% this year are: Brandon Drury, Will Smith, and Alejandro Kirk.
It would seem that his wrist is healthy, he could be a league-winner type player down the stretch.
I picked out Jonathan Schoop yesterday to recommend and to further test this “hot hitter tracker” thing.
He had another nice day yesterday, not whiffing on four swings, singling, walking, and stealing a base. This proves nothing… but I am sort of kind of starting to believe a bit in the hot hitter tracker - if nothing else it might show some hitters that are definitely healthy right now. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Here are the rest of the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (NYM): 19.0 SwStr%, 44.3 CSW%
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 16.9 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
3. Michael Kopech (CWS): 8.0 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
4. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 14.6 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
5. Luis Garcia (HOU): 17.0 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
6. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 16.8 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
7. Alex Wood (SF): 9.9 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
8. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 13.0 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
9. Noah Syndergaard (LAA): 12.0 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
10. Jameson Taillon (NYY): 7.4 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Sandy Alcantara - 8.0 IP - 97.5 JA Points
2. Max Scherzer - 6.0 IP - 94.5 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo - 4.33 IP - 57.0 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 8.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
5. Noah Syndergaard - 5.0 IP - 45.0 JA Points
6. Ryan Pepiot - 5.0 IP - 43.5 JA Points
7. Packy Naughton - 2.33 IP - 39.75 JA Points
8. Alex Wood - 5.0 IP - 38.5 JA Points
9. Mike Clevinger - 6.0 IP - 38.0 JA Points
10. Jose Quintana - 5.0 IP - 38.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 16 GS - 55.39 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 7 GS - 54.38 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 16 GS - 54.03 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 16 GS - 53.66 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 11 GS - 52.62 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 13 GS - 50.01 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 9 GS - 49.92 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 16 GS - 46.76 JA Points
9. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 9 GS - 46.56 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 16 GS - 45.81 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Martinez's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 82.7
Ryan Pepiot's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 88.7
Zack Greinke's FF velo (27 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 90.6
Jeffrey Springs's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.5
Zack Greinke's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 73.2
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 92.0
Paolo Espino's FF velo (45 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.3
Drew Hutchison's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.7
Spencer Howard's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.5
Zack Greinke's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 79.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Martinez's CH usage (37.8%) up 11.3 points
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (38.3%) up 23.6 points
German Marquez's CU usage (34.6%) up 15.6 points
German Marquez's SI usage (34.6%) up 14.3 points
Jameson Taillon's CH usage (21.3%) up 11.1 points
Jeffrey Springs's SL usage (40.0%) up 16.2 points
Josh Winder's SL usage (46.4%) up 13.4 points
Kyle Hendricks's SI usage (43.5%) up 13.3 points
Luis Garcia's CU usage (15.8%) up 11.0 points
Max Scherzer's SL usage (29.1%) up 10.4 points
Michael Kopech's SL usage (33.3%) up 11.2 points
Nick Lodolo's CU usage (32.6%) up 12.0 points
Noah Syndergaard's SL usage (33.7%) up 14.2 points
Tyler Gilbert's FS usage (26.8%) up 16.3 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FC usage (22.2%) up 16.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 77 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 127 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Noah Syndergaard - 78 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 39.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Yu Darvish - 81 TBF, 29.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 84 TBF, 34.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 127 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Andre Pallante - 105 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 99 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 92 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 77 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Kyle Wright - 99 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 58.2% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 3.9 BB%, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 92 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Shane Baz - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.6 K%, 3.2 BB%, 58.2% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Luis Garcia - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Charlie Morton - +3.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Max Fried - +2.2% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +5.0% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +5.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +5.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Cristian Javier - +4.6% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alex Kirilloff (MIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 3 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Max Kepler (MIN) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nate Lowe - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
2. Alex Kirilloff - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. J.T. Realmuto - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Yandy Diaz - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Matt Chapman - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
6. Max Muncy - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
7. Starling Marte - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
8. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
9. Kyle Schwarber - 3.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
10. Cedric Mullins II - 6.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 295.0 PA - 155.12 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 262.0 PA - 134.96 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 338.0 PA - 122.72 JA Points
4. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 338.0 PA - 116.45 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 342.0 PA - 114.62 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 346.0 PA - 112.49 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 307.0 PA - 111.92 JA Points
8. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 302.0 PA - 109.93 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 276.0 PA - 107.39 JA Points
10. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 296.0 PA - 105.27 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 114.6mph - field_out
Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 111.9mph - foul
Josh Donaldson (NYY) - 111.2mph - nan
Max Kepler (MIN) - 111.1mph - single
Dylan Moore (SEA) - 110.5mph - double
Eric Hosmer (SD) - 110.4mph - single
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 110.4mph - home_run
Nelson Velazquez (CHC) - 110.3mph - single
Jonathan Schoop (DET) - 110.3mph - single
Riley Greene (DET) - 109.8mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 60 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 78 PA, 41 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.8 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 51 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 88 PA, 65 BIP, 15 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 66 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 57 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Mike Trout - 72 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 77 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Yandy Diaz - 85 PA, 140 Swings, 93.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 88 PA, 137 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 49 PA, 84 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 59 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 68 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 70 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 61 PA, 113 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Austin Nola - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Will Smith - 80 PA, 128 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 51 PA, 75 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 75 PA, 8.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Josh Bell - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 11.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 71 PA, 15.5 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 49 PA, 16.3 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Marcell Ozuna - +17.4% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +3.8% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -8.1 Chase%
Jonathan Schoop - +5.8% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -13.8 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +6.1% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -13.4 Chase%
Trey Mancini - +7.1% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -14.0 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +4.9% Contact%, +10.0 mph exit velo, -5.4 Chase%
Dylan Moore - +10.7% Contact%, +7.3 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Kris Bryant - +16.9% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Eduardo Escobar - +3.4% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -11.4 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Chris Taylor - 39.2% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.977 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 38.0% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.958 Cold Rating
Avisail Garcia - 36.4% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 34.3% Whiff%, 75.7% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 35.7% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 40.6% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Pete Alonso - 33.8% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Jonathan India - 32.9% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 31.6% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 34.2% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
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