MLB Daily Notes: July 7, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Pulled my FitBit out of the drawer yesterday for the first time since February. That inspired me to get up and run this morning, so I feel amazing right now getting a nice 30 minutes in before the clock struck 7:00.
The sleep-shaming has always re-commenced, as FitBit gave up a big thumbs-down on my 6 hours and 19 minutes of sleep. If you’re going to have kids and still be productive and do things you like to do, I don’t see how you can’t sacrifice sleep for that - so FitBit can kick rocks. I do a lot of stuff every day between working, writing, reading books, playing with kids, running, cooking, cleaning, losing to Joniver on DraftKings - I can’t just be banking 8 hours of sleep, bro. Maybe I should throw this watch away.
Plenty of great pitcher outings yesterday, here’s the top starters based on JA score with their stats:
Corbin Burnes went for 26 whiffs, 14 of which came on the cutter. Josiah Gray had 22 whiffs and Shohei Ohtani went for 21. There were 31 strikeouts between those three.
Things have looked very good for Gray recently. The strikeouts have been there pretty much all year, but he seems to be improving with the control/command.
For the year:
26.8% K%
9.8% BB%
27.6% GB%
11.8% Brl%
Since June 1st:
30.4% K%
7.4% BB%
33.5% GB%
6.7% Brl%
If we look at the list of pitchers with a 30%+ K% and a BB% below 8% since June 1st:
Spencer Strider (36.8%, 8.0%)
Charlie Morton (37.2%, 6.1%)
Shane McClanahan (35.6%, 2.7%)
Shohei Ohtani (33.6%, 7.0%)
Josiah Gray (30.4%, 7.4%)
Julio Urias (30.4%, 6.7%)
Gerrit Cole (32.6%, 8.0%)
Luis Severino (31.2%, 7.2%)
So we may just be seeing Josiah steping into ace-hood, which isn’t shocking given the quality of his stuff and his prospect pedigree. It’s probably too late to add him, but you can probably get a decent price on him still if you’re trading for him.
I should probably have stopped myself there before giving advice, because I think I need a timeout after hyping Brayan Bello in yesterday’s post. I hope nobody took my advice on the stream there because he was awful.
79 pitches
6 H
4 ER
2 K
3 BB
22.8% CSW%
7.6% SwStr%
50% GB%
The 10.3% SwStr% on the sinker is impressive, but the changeup didn’t work. His changeup is allegedly his best pitch, and he will really need that to generate more swings and misses if he’s going to have success in the big leagues. I still firmly believe he’ll be a good ground-ball pitcher with this arsenal, but the strikeouts are a big question.
We can never take much of anything out of one start, especially when it’s a young kid’s Major League debut, so let’s keep that in mind. The plot above shows him being wildly erratic with his changeup and leaving some sinkers up in the zone (maybe sometimes a guy means to do that, I’m not sure!). We know he’s had walk issues in the minors (10% BB%), so this lack of great command of the changeup is probably just the norm. If you picked him up, I would give him at least one more look here because that K% and GB% profile from the minors is just so tantalizing.
The worst pitcher of the day was Josh VanMeter, who threw 27 pitches and gave up two dingers while getting just one whiff on 14 swings.
The fastball comes in just a little bit light at 76.4 miles per hour, and he even let us see the Eephus there, which is always exciting. It was surprising that VanMeter didn’t use any of the rest of his arsenal, which is huge this year:
I mean in that spot against the Yankees, you can’t just be throwing the four-seamer when you have seven pitches in your quiver. I expect a better outing next time.
This section was a joke for anybody unfamiliar with Josh VanMeter - who is an infielder for the Pirates who pitched the ninth inning because the game was so far out of hand.
Bo Bichette has really put away his early-season struggles. On July 2nd, the script here deemed him “hot”. Now that I have developed a hot hitter stat tracker, we can see how players have performed since we’ve called them hot:
So yeah, 23% Brl% and 12% K% since we first called him hot - that’s a good sign for the hot hitter tracker.
Of course, we have counter-examples like Amed Rosario, who was deemed hot on June 29th and since then has hit .103 with a .207 SLG in 34 plate appearances.
But anyways, Bichette has hit .286 with a .500 SLG over his last seven games and for the year has a .257/.302/.428 line with 13 homers and five steals - still a far cry from what you expected drafting him in the first round, but things may be turning around for him.
Two new articles from me on RotoBaller:
Fantasy Baseball OUTLIERS - First Edition
I wrote up our boy Daniel Vogelbach as a “breakout” hitter, and he shows up in the top 10 of contact rate over the last three weeks below, so that’s pretty wild given his career contact rate of 78% - a league-average mark.
Vogelbach is hitting .283/.424/.566 with four bombs and a 19.7% K% over his last 66 plate appearances. He’s very, very useful in OBP leagues - and he’s hitting his way into consideration in standard leagues as well.
I’m recording a podcast with the great Eno Sarris today, so that should be out tomorrow! If you have a question for me or Eno you want read and answered on the show - you can drop them in the comments here or reply to the Twitter thread here.
Alrighty here are the rest of the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 21.0 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 26.0 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
3. Josiah Gray (WSH): 22.0 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
4. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 13.6 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Corey Kluber (TB): 15.0 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Jose Berrios (TOR): 9.2 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%
7. Mitch Keller (PIT): 14.7 SwStr%, 30.5 CSW%
8. Shane Bieber (CLE): 17.2 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Cristian Javier (HOU): 12.6 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
10. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 15.5 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes - 7.0 IP - 101.0 JA Points
2. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 83.0 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani - 7.0 IP - 76.5 JA Points
4. Corey Kluber - 6.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
5. Jose Berrios - 6.0 IP - 45.0 JA Points
6. Trevor Rogers - 4.67 IP - 44.5 JA Points
7. Luis Severino - 6.0 IP - 43.5 JA Points
8. Cristian Javier - 5.0 IP - 42.75 JA Points
9. Adrian Sampson - 5.67 IP - 41.75 JA Points
10. Shane Bieber - 5.67 IP - 40.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 16 GS - 55.39 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 7 GS - 54.38 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 16 GS - 54.03 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 11 GS - 52.62 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 9 GS - 49.92 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 16 GS - 46.76 JA Points
9. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 9 GS - 46.56 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 16 GS - 45.81 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Urena's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 89.3
Glenn Otto's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.1
Mitch White's SI velo (24 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.7
Mitch White's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
Max Fried's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.7
Mitch Keller's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.6
Spenser Watkins's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 75.6
Shane Bieber's FC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 86.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's FF usage (43.3%) up 10.4 points
Adrian Sampson's SI usage (35.7%) up 12.4 points
Graham Ashcraft's SI usage (30.5%) up 13.5 points
Luis Severino's FF usage (56.8%) up 10.1 points
Max Fried's FF usage (41.5%) up 10.7 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (32.6%) up 11.6 points
Mitch Keller's SI usage (41.1%) up 21.4 points
Mitch White's SI usage (23.5%) up 19.8 points
Shane Bieber's FC usage (14.0%) up 13.6 points
Shohei Ohtani's SL usage (47.0%) up 14.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 39.3% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Luis Garcia - 104 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 104 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Noah Syndergaard - 78 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 43.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 40.4% K%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 34.7% K%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.3% K%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 36.1% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Andre Pallante - 96 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Alex Cobb - 81 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 99 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 76 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Kyle Wright - 99 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 3.9 BB%, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Shane Baz - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 2.8 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Charlie Morton - +3.1% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Patrick Corbin - +2.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +5.0% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Dylan Cease - +5.4% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Bo Bichette (TOR) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christopher Morel (CHC) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Franmil Reyes (CLE) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Matt Chapman - 4.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
2. Bo Bichette - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Andrew Benintendi - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
4. Yandy Diaz - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Christopher Morel - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
6. Kyle Schwarber - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Max Stassi - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Gleyber Torres - 6.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. Andrew Vaughn - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 299.0 PA - 155.18 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 266.0 PA - 134.44 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 343.0 PA - 126.18 JA Points
4. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 343.0 PA - 115.34 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 346.0 PA - 115.14 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 350.0 PA - 114.29 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 312.0 PA - 110.9 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 301.0 PA - 110.03 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 277.0 PA - 108.88 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 306.0 PA - 108.76 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.7mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 113.8mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.8mph - single
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 110.6mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.6mph - home_run
Keston Hiura (MIL) - 110.5mph - home_run
Jorge Polanco (MIN) - 109.8mph - home_run
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 109.8mph - double
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.3mph - double
Randal Grichuk (COL) - 109.2mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 52 BIP, 15 Brls, 28.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 60 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Luke Voit - 72 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 63 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 84 PA, 63 BIP, 15 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 55 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Mike Trout - 73 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 59 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 137 Swings, 94.2 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 85 PA, 135 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 53 PA, 83 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 61 PA, 119 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 59 PA, 101 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 70 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 61 PA, 115 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 64 PA, 109 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Daniel Vogelbach - 66 PA, 80 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Austin Nola - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 75 PA, 8.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 18.4 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Josh Bell - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 84 PA, 19.0 K%, 23.8 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 9.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Matt Olson - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 74 PA, 14.9 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 24.5 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 49 PA, 10.2 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Bo Bichette - +5.5% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Austin Riley - +13.7% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -5.2 Chase%
Jose Altuve - +4.0% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Marcell Ozuna - +15.8% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +7.4% Contact%, +7.7 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Jonathan Schoop - +5.3% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -11.4 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +6.9% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Willi Castro - +11.6% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Dylan Moore - +10.7% Contact%, +7.3 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Jack Suwinski - +3.1% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -12.2 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Chris Taylor - 38.9% Whiff%, 82.4% Weak%, 0.97 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 37.4% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.959 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 36.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.927 Cold Rating
Jonathan India - 35.7% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.898 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 39.0% Whiff%, 69.7% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Avisail Garcia - 33.7% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 34.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 33.1% Whiff%, 73.0% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Martin Maldonado - 37.5% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.874 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 31.6% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
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