MLB Daily Notes: July 7, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Excited to announce the addition of Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters to the daily notes.
So yeah, things have really gotten out of hand here.
Here is what the “hot hitters” from one week ago have done since:
The red marks aren’t because the hitters weren’t really hot… it was because they weren’t really hot ENOUGH. We need MORE hot, not LESS.
I am milking every little bit of this out.
I did ask Eno Sarris about this topic, and we talked all about STUFFPLUS and more on the podcast yesterday. Producer Lee is cooking that up right now so it’ll be out soon - keep an eye out!
I bested Joniver on DraftKings last night because he played a super weird lineup, going full bore at the Pirates/Reds game but playing Chavis & Farmer against righties despite the fact that they have done this against righties this year:
That seemed weird to me, but I’m not so arrogant that I think he was necessarily wrong (he was wrong in retrospect, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong in practice). I’m sure these dudes that flood the DFS lobbies with contests are working off a projection system, and clearly, the ballpark factors play into those systems. It was also a really bad pitching matchup with Bryse Wilson & a Reds bullpen game, so I get it - I myself played Drury & Reynolds and nearly went to Vogelbach and Naquin as well, but shouldn’t we care if a guy is slugging just .291 against a righty? Maybe not. I’ve heard that Derek Carty, the experts of experts in daily projections, doesn’t really buy into the splits thing - so I need to talk to him about it. I will invite him on the podcast to see if we can make that happen.
Anyhoo, I’m now 3-3 against Joniver in this little thing I’m doing. So that means that we have both lost and DraftKings has benefited by taking 10% of our money the whole time. Good for them - what a great business model.
Spencer Strider was stupid last night, striking out 12 of the 22 batters he faced:
Here are how his 23 whiffs broke down:
He has a 40.8% K% since May 1st (eight starts). No other pitcher is within four points of that mark, so things are just ridiculous with this kid right now.
Kris Bubic had a funny start with 17 whiffs but six walks. That’s what we’d call ineffectively wild.
One guy that has legitimately been in the Cy Young conversation that I haven’t talked hardly at all about this year is Tony Gonsolin, who dominated once again throwing seven innings and giving up just two runs on four hits. He has a 1.62 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP now despite having a pretty pedestrian 24% K% and 7% BB% with a 6% Brl%. You would guess at like a 3.25 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with those marks. And now I want to check his FIP to see if my 3.25 guess was close.
Gonsolin ERA: 1.62
Gonsolin FIP: 3.35
Gonsolin xFIP: 3.81
Gonsolin SIERA: 3.72
Gonsolin xERA: 2.89
So the statcast version of expected ERA likes him more than the more traditional indicators, so that’s pretty interesting. I would definitely be shopping Gonsolin right now if you can sell for the price of a true ace - because chances are this guy just isn’t a true ace.
Adley Rutschman had two barrels yesterday and is now slashing .259/.323/.529 with four homers and a 12.% Brl% with a 14% K% since June 9th - which we can call the date where he “settled in” or “slowed it down” or whatever euphemism you traditionalists want to use.
He has now been deemed super ultra mega hot by this monster I have built that will certainly destroy me, I am now Doctor Frankenstein.
Dylan Moore was also deemed hot on July 5th and 6th, and look he hit a dinger yesterday - wow.
If you watch that video you’ll see that Lourdes Gurriel volleyball’d it over the fence for him.
So, we can say that Gurriel really, really respects the hotness. I bet Gurriel was paid off by Eric Samulski to do this, thinking I wouldn’t see the video cause I’m just a big number cruncher egghead who doesn’t watch the games. It’s a grand conspiracy and I have caught you - so HAH. Say what up to that new baby for me tho Samski!
Cal Raleigh hit his 11th dinger of the year last night and it was a true piss missile, leaving the bat at 114 miles per hour. Only 17 hitters in the league this year have homered above 114 miles per hour, here’s that list:
Giancarlo Stanton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jarred Kelenic, Sean Murphy, Rowdy Tellez, Jesus Sanchez, Jorge Soler, Aaron Judge, Julio Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Willson Contreras, Yordan Alvarez, Teoscar Hernandez, Juan Yepez, Jorge Alfaro, Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh
My guy has a 15.9% Brl% this year now but he’s a free-swinger with a 65% contact% and 30.3% K% - but hey he’ll hit some bombs from the catcher spot so you can pick him up if that’ll help your team!
Alright, here we go with the rest of the stuff! We’ll be back later with some Draftkings talk!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 23.0 SwStr%, 41.0 CSW%
2. Robert Dugger (CIN): 18.5 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
3. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 18.1 SwStr%, 38.3 CSW%
4. Mike Minor (CIN): 15.5 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
5. Bailey Falter (PHI): 12.8 SwStr%, 37.2 CSW%
6. Kris Bubic (KC): 17.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
7. Bryse Wilson (PIT): 11.7 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
8. Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC): 17.1 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
9. Joe Musgrove (SD): 9.5 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
10. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 15.1 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider - 6.0 IP - 103.0 JA Points
2. Mike Minor - 6.33 IP - 64.25 JA Points
3. Trevor Williams - 6.67 IP - 51.25 JA Points
4. Robert Dugger - 3.67 IP - 49.0 JA Points
5. Tony Gonsolin - 6.67 IP - 46.75 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease - 6.0 IP - 44.5 JA Points
7. Dallas Keuchel - 7.0 IP - 43.0 JA Points
8. Justin Verlander - 5.67 IP - 41.25 JA Points
9. Austin Gomber - 4.67 IP - 41.0 JA Points
10. Bryse Wilson - 6.67 IP - 39.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8 GS - 57.26 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 16 GS - 55.39 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 17 GS - 52.91 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 11 GS - 52.62 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 9 GS - 49.92 JA Points
8. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 9 GS - 46.56 JA Points
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 17 GS - 45.81 JA Points
10. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 16 GS - 45.81 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Matthew Liberatore's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 88.1
Matthew Liberatore's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 76.1
Austin Gomber's CU velo (32 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 77.3
Matthew Liberatore's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 94.6
Mike Minor's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.2
Dylan Cease's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.2
Gerrit Cole's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.8
Bryse Wilson's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's CU usage (32.3%) up 19.1 points
Bailey Falter's SI usage (38.5%) up 34.7 points
Beau Brieske's SL usage (31.2%) up 11.5 points
Beau Brieske's SI usage (21.5%) up 16.6 points
Bryse Wilson's SI usage (40.4%) up 11.4 points
Bryse Wilson's SL usage (27.7%) up 15.0 points
Dallas Keuchel's FF usage (14.3%) up 13.9 points
Josh Winckowski's SI usage (52.0%) up 10.9 points
Justin Verlander's CU usage (32.0%) up 14.8 points
Marco Gonzales's FF usage (33.0%) up 31.9 points
Mark Leiter Jr.'s CH usage (26.8%) up 11.1 points
Matthew Liberatore's FF usage (47.3%) up 17.5 points
Robert Dugger's FF usage (29.2%) up 15.5 points
Tony Gonsolin's FF usage (47.3%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 39.3% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 104 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Noah Syndergaard - 78 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 44.7% K%
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 43.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 40.0% K%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 38.7% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 35.4% K%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 36.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 104 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Andre Pallante - 96 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Alex Cobb - 81 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 99 TBF, 60.6% GB%
Kyle Wright - 99 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Mitch Keller - 93 TBF, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Bassitt - 51 TBF, 27.5 K%, 3.9 BB%, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Shane Baz - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 2.8 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Patrick Corbin - +2.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +5.0% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.0% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Hicks (NYY) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Darick Hall (PHI) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Manny Machado (SD) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Jose Altuve - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
3. Mookie Betts - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Adley Rutschman - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
5. Aaron Hicks - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Diego Castillo - 3.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
7. Eugenio Suarez - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Ryan Mountcastle - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
9. Luke Voit - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
10. Justin Turner - 3.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 303.0 PA - 153.0 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 270.0 PA - 131.11 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 343.0 PA - 126.18 JA Points
4. Juan Soto (WSH) - 351.0 PA - 113.28 JA Points
5. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 347.0 PA - 111.93 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 355.0 PA - 111.77 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 312.0 PA - 110.9 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 301.0 PA - 110.03 JA Points
9. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 306.0 PA - 108.76 JA Points
10. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 253.0 PA - 107.35 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 114.0mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.5mph - field_out
Joc Pederson (SF) - 112.5mph - foul
Jonathan India (CIN) - 111.3mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.2mph - field_out
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.0mph - field_out
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 110.8mph - home_run
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.6mph - home_run
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.3mph - single
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.2mph - double_play
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 82 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Luke Voit - 71 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 84 PA, 64 BIP, 15 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 51 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 59 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 137 Swings, 94.2 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 81 PA, 127 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 84 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 118 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 62 PA, 106 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Carson Kelly - 47 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Daniel Vogelbach - 70 PA, 86 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Nicky Lopez - 56 PA, 95 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 65 PA, 111 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 18.4 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 23.4 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 9.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Matt Olson - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 12.9 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 53 PA, 13.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Bo Bichette - +6.5% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Austin Riley - +10.3% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Jose Altuve - +3.7% Contact%, +6.6 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +5.9% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Marcell Ozuna - +16.9% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -9.7 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +9.2% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -10.7 Chase%
Jonathan Schoop - +6.4% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -10.5 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +7.1% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Willi Castro - +11.6% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Joey Wendle - +17.7% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -9.6 Chase%
Dylan Moore - +12.3% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Adley Rutschman - 0.381 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 85.2% Contact%, 20.2% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Brandon Nimmo - 0.378 xwOBA, 17.9% Brl%, 82.3% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 19.2% K%
Brendan Rodgers - 0.47 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 84.9% Contact%, 23.2% Chase%, 5.1% K%
Jose Altuve - 0.434 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 82.7% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 8.5% K%
Justin Turner - 0.391 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.402 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 79.8% Contact%, 24.2% Chase%, 21.1% K%
Riley Greene - 0.394 xwOBA, 13.6% Brl%, 76.2% Contact%, 19.0% Chase%, 18.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jorge Mateo - 40.2% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.954 Cold Rating
Avisail Garcia - 36.5% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.938 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 35.6% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 34.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 33.6% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
Luis Robert - 30.8% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Bligh Madris - 34.7% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Trevor Story - 32.4% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 29.7% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 39.8% Whiff%, 65.5% Weak%, 0.826 Cold Rating
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