MLB Daily Notes - July 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
First, I wrote a new research piece yesterday and scheduled it to come out this morning like a real pro. It’s about the history of pitchers adding new pitches during the season and how that has usually gone. There’s plenty of stuff in there, and paid subs get the full list and analysis of pitchers that have recently added new pitches and have gone on to use them significantly. Read it here.
Reader Questions
Should I shit can Tim Anderson? ~Anonymous
Watch your mouth, Anonymous! This was 8 days ago, so maybe you already have - but yes, it’s looking like Tim Anderson isn’t doing much for us in fantasy. He’s basically Luis Arraez without the batting average!
Nolan Gorman - do underlying #s seem like resurgence with happen or is he regressing back to his expected output? ~Chris S
The OPS is under .800 now for Gorman with a 13.8% Brl% and a 30.2% K%. That’s about what I would have expected from him at the beginning of the year, but he hasn’t gotten there in a normal way.
So if you’re a believer in “streak”, it would seem that he might be starting another good one now with the K% falling and the Brl% coming up a bit (although it’s easy to come up from 0%). I think he’ll still hit his homers, but he’s too close to a Joey Gallo type for my taste.
Koby Allard - did first start back seem like a fluke or is there legitimate mixed league value rest of the way if he's allowed to throw 80-100 pitches? ~Chris S
I’ve always had in my mind that Allard is terrible, so this question was surprising to hear. Maybe I’m ig'nant here.
I guess he’s possibly better than I thought previously, but I can’t say much about him now other than he’s been mediocre in the past, but hasn’t pitched much lately, but has started well this year with a 14.6% SwStr% and a 50% Strike% on 144 pitches. I’d wait a start or two more to see if those numbers hold, and if they do - go for it.
torkelson ~will
Will take it easy man you don’t need to be that verbose! Torkelson has been flirting with us all year this year. He hasn’t been striking out much (23.5%) and has been hitting the ball hard (48% Hard%). Launch angle has been an issue for him and that’s kept homers off the board, but he’s barreling it well recently:
You can see that he’s gone through some previous streaks with a nice barrel rate, but his homer count sticks at just a dozen, about a league-average homer rate. He pulls it a good bit too. The launch angles have just been a bit low, but they aren’t so far off what you want that we have to think it’ll take him a long time to get it right. I could definitely see Torkelson taking off in the second half, so I’m interested in that.
Drew waters ~Tim
Nolan Jones ~Rockies Fan
I’m taking these two together because these two guys are so similar. Both speedy players with a lot of raw power, but big strikeout problems. Jones is at a 69% Contact% and a 32% K%, and Waters is at 66% and 36%.
I think Jones should be rostered in most leagues because of Coors and the fact that he did just get 1B eligibility. But I think we can leave Waters alone.
1. Cedric Mullins 2. Harrison Bader ~Eli
I think we have had a wrong interpretation of who Mullins is since that wild 2021 season. The guy just isn’t a serious home run hitter. He’s at a 5.9% Brl% this year and that’s not because of the launch angle (37% GB%). He just doesn’t swing the bat very hard. That turns a lot of fly balls into outs, and that has dropped him batting average to .248.
But look, he’s a strong base-stealer with a good strikeout rate in a good lineup, so you’re going to start him every day for runs and steals - he’s just not really the 25-35 threat a lot of people think he is.
As for Bader, you could almost call him a poor man’s Mullins. He has a 9% Brl% and a 13.4% K%, although that makes him look like a rich man’s Mullins! His SB attempt rate is very high at 30%, and he is capable of hitting some homers. So I like Bader just fine, and he’s a nice guy to get in deeper or 5 OF leagues, he’s capable of having some massive weeks.
On to what happened yesterday!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Another spike game for Lance Lynn with a huge performance against the Blue Jays. 25 whiffs, a 24.5% SwStr%, a 55% Strike%. Wicked stuff.
He’s now fifth in the league (12 GS minimum) in SwStr%
Lefties have been taking him to town, and the Blue Jays don’t have many competent lefties, but I can’t see Lynn being a bad pitcher the rest of the year if he’s really going to generate this many whiffs, and the SwStr% is elite to both sides of the plate. I’m back in on him.
Freddy Peralta had a big game of his own, leading the day with 28 whiffs. That brought his season K% to 27% and the walk rate is under 10% right now, so that’s good. Since June 1st he has a 22% K-BB%, which is what we want, so he should be started every time out - although I don’t doubt that there will be more disappointing starts throughout the year.
Johan Oviedo put up a pretty good start against the Dodgers all things considered. He had 18 whiffs and a 49% Strike% with a 6:2 K:BB. SwStr (12.1%) and Strike% (44%) have been pretty mediocre for him this year, but he has had some big starts this year, so I would be holding out some hope for his future while the Pirates rotation is just completely collapsing.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn (vs. TOR): 36.55 Points
2. Carlos Carrasco (vs. ARI): 27.6 Points
3. Julio Urias (vs. PIT): 27.1 Points
4. Jose Berrios (vs. CWS): 26.55 Points
5. Kyle Bradish (vs. NYY): 24.5 Points
6. Eury Perez (vs. STL): 22.5 Points
7. Ronel Blanco (vs. SEA): 22.5 Points
8. Jack Flaherty (vs. MIA): 22.41 Points
9. Freddy Peralta (vs. CHC): 21.79 Points
10. Michael Lorenzen (vs. OAK): 21.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 28 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Lance Lynn (CWS): 25 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
3. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 18 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 18 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
5. Hogan Harris (OAK): 15 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
6. Eury Perez (MIA): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 14 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
8. Jack Flaherty (STL): 12 Whiffs (111 Pitches)
9. Michael Lorenzen (DET): 10 Whiffs (60 Pitches)
10. Jose Berrios (TOR): 10 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brandon Williamson (CIN): 57.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
2. Jose Berrios (TOR): 55.1 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
3. Lance Lynn (CWS): 54.9 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 54.5 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
5. Julio Urias (LAD): 52.3 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 51.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
7. Hogan Harris (OAK): 51.4 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
8. Jordan Lyles (KC): 50.6 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
9. Eury Perez (MIA): 49.5 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
10. Drey Jameson (ARI): 49.1 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
11. Johan Oviedo (PIT): 49.0 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
12. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 47.4 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
13. Jack Flaherty (STL): 46.8 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
14. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 46.8 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
15. Michael Lorenzen (DET): 46.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitcher / Pitch Trends
We see that Peralta’s velo popped up yesterday which powered that big start. That’s a huge increase on the curveball and slider, interesting stuff there.
Nathan Eovaldi‘s velocity came back down. Here is how that has gone:
So everybody was worried about ine arly June, but then it popped back up on that July 1 start, but yesterday it was back down to 94.1. Here are the actual numbers behind that:
So I’m not sure what to tell you besides that if you have Eovaldi on your team you should probably stay up all night tonight in fear.
George Kirby dropped the four-seamer in favor of the sinker and slider, and it didn’t work.
For the season
11.1% SwStr%
50.3% Strike%
29.0% Ball%
20.8% K%
2.3% BB%
46.3% GB%
Last 10 starts:
11.0% SwStr%
50.4% Strike%
29.2% Ball%
21.4% K%
2.8% BB%
48.2% GB%
Pretty much steadily throwing a bitchload of strikes and letting what will happen happens. It will go great sometimes, but it will go poorly some other times. He’s a unique pitcher. I think eventually he’ll decide to throw more balls to try to get more chases and whiffs, but for now, he’s just filling up the strike zone and hoping for the best - and overall it’s worked pretty well (3.09 ERA, 104 WHIP).
Back to Lance Lynn for a second, we talked about him in that research piece I linked to at the beginning. He added a slider in June, and here’s what the arsenal has looked like since then:
That could be a game-changer even at relatively low usage (he threw it just 7 times yesterday), since it’s a much slower pitch than his three fastballs and obviously will have some different kind of movement on it. Like to see that, and the pitch has worked well so far - and his overall numbers since then are just elite with the 24% SwStr% and 53% Strike%. Lynn could have a monstrous second-half.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 3.0mph to 79.1
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 77.8
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 84.1
Jose Berrios's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.3
Brandon Williamson's FC velo (19 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.9
George Kirby's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.9
Brandon Williamson's FF velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.8
Freddy Peralta's FF velo (59 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 95.9
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.1
Drey Jameson's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.7
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 74.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (42.7%) up 18.7 points
Deivi Garcia's FC usage (25.8%) up 23.7 points
Eury Perez's SL usage (45.2%) up 16.1 points
George Kirby's SI usage (44.1%) up 21.0 points
George Kirby's SL usage (30.1%) up 11.9 points
Hogan Harris's FF usage (61.0%) up 17.4 points
Jack Flaherty's FF usage (53.6%) up 14.3 points
Julio Urias's CH usage (26.1%) up 10.9 points
Tanner Bibee's CU usage (17.6%) up 10.5 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (53.9%) up 10.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -21.7%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +21.5%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -20.1%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.8%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Luis Medina Sinker: +17.7%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +17.4%
Blake Snell 4-Seam Fastball: -16.5%
Jaime Barria Changeup: -15.6%
Michael Lorenzen 4-Seam Fastball: -15.0%
Daniel Lynch 4-Seam Fastball: +14.7%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +13.8%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +13.5%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -13.2%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +13.1%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.0%
J.P. France Cutter: +12.8%
Drew Smyly Cutter: +12.7%
Matthew Liberatore 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
I’m really interested to see what Griffin Canning will come up with tonight against the Dodgers. His last five starts:
14.6% SwStr%
50.0% Strike%
35.0% Ball%
27.6% K%
6.0% BB%
49.3% GB%
His last three starts he has a 30.0% K%, a 8.6% BB%, and a 60% GB%. He’s been elite as far as those stats go, and I think he’s a guy that could be in for a big-time second-half breakout, however, he does have innings concerns as he threw zero innings last year and just 65 in 2021.
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 66 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 77 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 103 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 106 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 66 TBF, 45.5% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 39.8% K%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 35.9% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Pablo Lopez - 106 TBF, 34.0% K%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 66 TBF, 39.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 101 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Griffin Canning - 70 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 94 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 79 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Keaton Winn - 75 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Austin Gomber - 71 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Bryan Hoeing - 68 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Bryce Elder - 103 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Luis Medina - 68 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 33.0 K%, 2.3 BB%, 52.7% GB%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.2 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Hunter Brown - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 53.6% GB%
Kenta Maeda - 64 TBF, 32.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 30.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 35.9 K%, 3.8 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Tyler Holton - 50 TBF, 28.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 51.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Mitch Keller - +3.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Lucas Giolito - +2.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Zac Gallen - +3.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Austin Gomber - +3.4% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Tyler Glasnow - +2.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Trevor Richards - +4.2% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Shawn Armstrong - +3.3% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
James Kaprielian - +6.4% CSW%, -7.4 BB%
Jakob Junis - +6.6% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 7 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.4mph - double
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM) - 112.6mph - double
Lars Nootbaar (STL) - 112.2mph - double
Oscar Colas (CWS) - 111.8mph - double
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 111.7mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.6mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.5mph - home_run
Mike Ford (SEA) - 111.4mph - foul
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 111.1mph - single
Riley Adams (WSH) - 110.8mph - double
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