MLB Daily Notes - July 8th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I am home alone with the Trea baby today as my wife took the other kids on a day trip, and at this point, I don’t even really know what to do with myself. You get so used to having something to do or someone to take care of every minute of the day you feel almost useless when you have a day with less of that.
It’s rainy today too so I can’t even go out and play one-on-one with Trea baby, which is too bad because he could really use the practice.
But that does mean I have some extra Saturday time for the daily notes! I even waited to start this until he was down for a nap.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Aaron Civale ripped through the Royals in like 17 minutes last night. I checked the scores at like 8:30 and that game was basically over, so I assumed it was like a 6:20 start or something but nope - it was a 7:05. The game ended in 1:51 I think - crazy stuff. Civale put up nine strikeouts on an 11% SwStr%. That’s not common. A 9+ K game with a SwStr% under 12 has only happened this many times:
I find myself using this newer “Individual Start Data” Google Sheet almost every day, lots of possible uses for that data - paid subs have access to that.
I haven’t paid much attention to Civale this year, but he was a guy I’ve liked very late in drafts for a few years now. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he has one of the deepest pitch arsenals in the league. Although it does look like he’s trimmed that down a bit this year:
Basically a four-pitch guy at this point, and it’s not going super well for him overall - not someone to worry about in standard fantasy leagues.
Tyler Glasnow had another big SwStr% day at 18% but had to leave the game early because of cramping in his glove hand… that’s a new one. He had a four strike inning, so that’s always fun. That’s only happened 9 times since 2020:
the original version of this image was wrong, I hadn’t considered double-headers - it’s corrected below now
In my mind, I have basically started thinking of 2021-present as the new “modern era”. 2020 was so weird, man.
We certainly have to mention the return of Alek Manoah. He was quite good against the Tigers in his return to the Majors.
The pitch mix didn’t change:
Mike Kurland pointed out that he had some more movement on his pitches:
So I suppose that’s significant, but it will and should take some time for Manoah to earn your trust back. When someone betrays you like that it’s tough to just open your doors back for him.
Although I’m playing JAKE in the home league right now, and he’s been mailing it in since May, so I’m not even sure he noticed that Manoah went to the minors - and he started him last night and now I’m down 12-0. Scary stuff.
Jameson Taillon also finally had a good start in the box score. I tweeted yesterday that I did think he was due for some improvement just because the numbers I like the most don’t look absolutely horrible and he’s been hurt by a bunch of hard contact, and maybe that started yesterday. But maybe not, because he went for a poor 8.8% SwStr% and 43.1% Strike%. It was actually one of his worse starts as far as those numbers go.
One more thing, Griffin Canning was awful, so I apologize for the hype I put on him. Two whiffs on 56 pitches and a 41% Strike%, so offensive. I think we’ll talk more about him over the All-Star Break.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Civale (vs. KC): 36.55 Points
2. Alek Manoah (vs. DET): 28.5 Points
3. Jameson Taillon (vs. NYY): 28.2 Points
4. Zac Gallen (vs. PIT): 25.35 Points
5. Tyler Glasnow (vs. ATL): 24.96 Points
6. Charlie Morton (vs. TB): 24.64 Points
7. Nick Pivetta (vs. OAK): 24.25 Points
8. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. HOU): 22.75 Points
9. Corbin Burnes (vs. CIN): 21.3 Points
10. Luis Medina (vs. BOS): 18.7 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (CWS): 17 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
2. Hunter Brown (HOU): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
3. Luis Medina (OAK): 16 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
4. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 16 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
5. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 15 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 14 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
7. Charlie Morton (ATL): 13 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
8. Bailey Ober (MIN): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Luis Castillo (SEA): 12 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
10. Alek Manoah (TOR): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 64.5 Strike%, 21.1 Ball%
2. Aaron Civale (CLE): 56.0 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
3. Alek Manoah (TOR): 53.8 Strike%, 29.7 Ball%
4. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 52.6 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
5. Bailey Ober (MIN): 51.6 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 51.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
7. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 51.1 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
8. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 50.7 Strike%, 32.4 Ball%
9. Ross Stripling (SF): 49.2 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
10. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 48.5 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
11. Zac Gallen (ARI): 46.9 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
12. Daniel Lynch (KC): 46.6 Strike%, 24.7 Ball%
13. Cole Irvin (BAL): 46.4 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%
14. Luis Castillo (SEA): 46.1 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
15. Dylan Cease (CWS): 45.8 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Yu Darvish's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 4.1mph to 79.1
Yu Darvish's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.0
Austin Gomber's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 86.7
Cole Irvin's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's CU usage (37.0%) up 12.3 points
Austin Gomber's FF usage (76.8%) up 25.2 points
Corbin Burnes's FC usage (66.7%) up 12.9 points
Daniel Lynch's SL usage (27.4%) up 10.1 points
Hunter Brown's FF usage (54.5%) up 11.6 points
Luis Castillo's SI usage (34.8%) up 16.8 points
Luis Medina's SI usage (23.8%) up 18.3 points
Trevor Williams's FF usage (58.2%) up 11.5 points
Tyler Anderson's SI usage (18.3%) up 12.5 points
Yu Darvish's CU usage (23.0%) up 14.5 points
Zac Gallen's FF usage (57.3%) up 10.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -21.7%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.8%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +17.4%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Blake Snell 4-Seam Fastball: -16.5%
Jaime Barria Changeup: -15.6%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +13.8%
Michael Lorenzen 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -13.2%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +13.1%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.0%
J.P. France Cutter: +12.8%
Drew Smyly Cutter: +12.7%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Matthew Liberatore 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
It wasn’t a good start for Andrew Abbott yesterday, but he still shows up here in the top ten of CSW%. His updated season line:
12.6% SwStr%
48.9% Strike%
35.7% Ball%
28.5% K%
8.5% BB%
44% FB%
That’s more than good enough to hold on to him in the second half even in redraft leagues, the SwStr% has come way up since those first couple of starts, but we learned yesterday what can happen when you give up so many fly balls. Here’s the BIP Type Performance from yesterday, another dashboard tab I’m in love with:
Five barrels - yikes! You’re not going to have a good start giving that up, especially in Milwaukee. All “Barrel”, all “Under”, and most “Solid” are going to classify as fly balls, and the flares are line drives - so you can see that the Brewers had absolutely no problem getting the ball in the air against him. That can be good too since fly balls are most often caught if they don’t go over a fence, but it can turn into really bad outings like last night. He’s second in the league in “under%” allowed, just behind Nestor Cortes:
And he leads the league in FB% allowed by a ton.
Okay, onward:
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 101 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 77 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 106 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 43.2% K%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 39.8% K%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 37.2% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 35.9% K%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 37.5% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 78 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
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