MLB Daily Notes - July 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
It was a quite peaceful day yesterday with just the baby. Once you have three kids for a few months, having just one is a walk in the park. We walked a couple miles, rolled around the ground, slept, ate, and made loud noises. While he was sleeping I cleaned the entire house. It was glorious in this house, but it only took my two older kids (4 & 2) a few minutes to ruin that when they got home.
My two-year-old boy is a full-on boy now. He’s growing a ton, speaking full sentences, getting potty-trained, and really doing boy stuff. It’s wild how different boys and girls are. The girl is obsessed with dresses and playing restaurant and the baby, while the older boy just wants to play with trucks and balls and wreck stuff.
Pitchers - Yesterday
Spencer Strider won the triple crown here, that’s what I’ll call it from now on when someone is #1 on the first three things here (fantasy points, whiffs, Strike%). He has officially left everyone else in the dust this year.
There was a little bit of a rough path there in May to early June, but over his last four:
26 IP, 4 ER, 21 H, 39 K, 4 BB, 38% K%, 4% BB%
A 34% K-BB%, it’s a video game to him.
Blake Snell is also… not regressing. I traded him for Austin Riley a couple of weeks ago thinking I was the man, but he’s made me look pretty stupid. I have still believe he’ll have another rough patch or two in the second half, but man - he’s probably been the best player in the fantasy game since May 25th when this run started
53 IP, 4 ER, 28 H, 84 K, 22 BB, 41% K%, 11% BB%
So the walks are still high, but it doesn’t matter with a 41% K%. He’s getting so many whiffs, and he has three pitches racking them up at crazy rates.
You can understand why it’s insanely hard to hit him, you basically only have a chance at the fastball.
Gavin Williams had good marks yesterday against the Royals.
21.3% SwStr%
48.9% Strike%
31.9% Ball%
7:1 K:BB
For the season now:
13.0% SwStr%
50.1% Strike%
30.2% Ball%
19.4% K%
7.1% BB%
.713 OPS allowed
The SwStr% is beating the K%, so maybe there will be some upward movement there.
Seems like he should eventually fall into the 23-27% range, so that’s a good sign. Here’s the arsenal:
The 30% Ball% is really good. That puts him fourth in the league behind just George Kirby, Joe Ryan, and Jeffrey Springs - so a very good sign if that keeps up.
He’s looking like a second-half BUY.
James Paxton fell back a bit yesterday with a low 9.7% SwStr%. The only worse start he had than that was three turns ago when he left early with a slight injury.
Still landed a bunch of strikes, but didn’t have the whiffs going. Probably not a problem, but something to monitor.
Reid Detmers gave up three homers but still had a nice 16% SwStr% and 57.3% Strike% game. For the year, he’s up to a 14.6% SwStr% and 35.6% Ball%, pretty good stuff. Maybe he’s finally figured out some sort of consistency, he does have a pristine 29.3% K% and a fine 8.5% BB% on the year.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (vs. TB): 37.24 Points
2. Blake Snell (vs. NYM): 37.1 Points
3. Miles Mikolas (vs. CWS): 29.35 Points
4. Matt Manning (vs. TOR): 27.21 Points
5. Gerrit Cole (vs. CHC): 20.89 Points
6. Mitch Keller (vs. ARI): 20.15 Points
7. Gavin Williams (vs. KC): 19.36 Points
8. Kevin Gausman (vs. DET): 19.3 Points
9. Alex Wood (vs. COL): 18.85 Points
10. Framber Valdez (vs. SEA): 17.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 25 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Gavin Williams (CLE): 20 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Blake Snell (SD): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
6. Miles Mikolas (STL): 12 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
7. Framber Valdez (HOU): 12 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
8. Michael Grove (LAD): 11 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
9. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 11 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
10. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 57.7 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
2. Reid Detmers (LAA): 57.3 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
3. Miles Mikolas (STL): 54.7 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
4. Blake Snell (SD): 51.4 Strike%, 41.9 Ball%
5. Colin Rea (MIL): 50.5 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
6. David Peterson (NYM): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
7. Taj Bradley (TB): 49.5 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
8. James Paxton (BOS): 49.5 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 49.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
10. Gavin Williams (CLE): 48.9 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
11. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 48.1 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
12. Matt Manning (DET): 47.3 Strike%, 37.4 Ball%
13. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 47.2 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
14. Michael Grove (LAD): 46.8 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
15. Framber Valdez (HOU): 46.7 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jake Irvin's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 95.8
Taj Bradley's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 80.3
Jake Irvin's CU velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.7
Framber Valdez's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.1
Taj Bradley's FC velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.7
Gerrit Cole's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.8
Michael Grove's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 77.1
Reid Detmers's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.7
Ranger Suarez's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 81.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Wood's CH usage (40.3%) up 16.8 points
Blake Snell's CU usage (26.7%) up 10.6 points
Braxton Garrett's FC usage (32.1%) up 11.8 points
Bryan Woo's SI usage (42.3%) up 14.4 points
Bryan Woo's FC usage (24.4%) up 20.5 points
Colin Rea's FC usage (38.5%) up 14.5 points
David Peterson's SI usage (31.8%) up 11.3 points
David Peterson's CU usage (17.0%) up 10.2 points
Javier Assad's SI usage (38.0%) up 13.2 points
Matt Manning's CU usage (29.7%) up 10.3 points
Ranger Suarez's FF usage (31.5%) up 11.9 points
Sonny Gray's FF usage (39.6%) up 16.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: -26.6%
Cole Irvin Cutter: +24.8%
Shohei Ohtani Sweeper: -21.7%
Eury Perez Slider: +19.9%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.8%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.0%
Shohei Ohtani Cutter: +17.4%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +17.1%
Jaime Barria Changeup: -15.6%
Blake Snell 4-Seam Fastball: -15.5%
Josiah Gray Sweeper: +13.8%
Michael Lorenzen 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Bryan Woo Slider: -13.3%
Jon Gray Sweeper: -13.2%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +13.1%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.0%
J.P. France Cutter: +12.8%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.5%
Matthew Liberatore 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -12.4%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 101 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 43.3% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 43.2% K%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 39.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 37.9% K%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 37.2% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 36.0% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Reid Detmers - 91 TBF, 34.1% K%
Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 37.5% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 103 TBF, 35.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 103 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Andrew Abbott - 94 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Reese Olson - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 94 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Keaton Winn - 75 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Bryan Hoeing - 68 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Brayan Bello - 107 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Luis Medina - 93 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 93 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 1.1 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Eury Perez - 73 TBF, 34.2 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 53.6% GB%
Kenta Maeda - 64 TBF, 32.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 88 TBF, 43.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.2% GB%
Zach Eflin - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.5 BB%, 52.7% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Zac Gallen - +2.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Dylan Cease - +4.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +2.0% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dane Dunning - +2.2% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Lance Lynn - +4.4% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Joe Musgrove - +2.0% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Lucas Giolito - +2.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +2.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Buck Farmer - +2.3% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Shawn Armstrong - +2.9% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Jakob Junis - +6.6% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Austin Slater (SF) 2 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Jung (TEX) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Willy Adames (MIL) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
None
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 118.1mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 113.1mph - triple
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 113.0mph - single
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.9mph - double
Brenton Doyle (COL) - 111.0mph - single
Josh Bell (CLE) - 110.4mph - single
Harrison Bader (NYY) - 110.2mph - double
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.9mph - single
Spencer Torkelson (DET) - 109.9mph - nan
J.D. Martinez (LAD) - 109.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
D.J. LeMahieu - 61 PA, 0.218 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, 0.078 Diff
Josh Bell - 71 PA, 0.312 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Dominic Smith - 70 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 78 PA, 0.344 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 58 PA, 0.284 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Ryan O'Hearn - 63 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Salvador Perez - 69 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.237 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Byron Buxton - 69 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Will Brennan - 60 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 0.331 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Bottom 10
Jarren Duran - 59 PA, 0.491 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.148 Diff
Josh Naylor - 69 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, -0.127 Diff
Elly De La Cruz - 86 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.296 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Lane Thomas - 88 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Cody Bellinger - 71 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Ozzie Albies - 80 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
TJ Friedl - 86 PA, 0.379 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
J.P. Crawford - 71 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Matt Vierling - 59 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Joey Votto - 63 PA, 0.441 wOBA, 0.357 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Joey Gallo - 52 PA, 17 BIP, 5 Brls, 29.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 78 PA, 49 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 48 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Joey Votto - 63 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Blake Sabol - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 54 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Luis Robert - 80 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 69 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 76 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Adolis Garcia - 93 PA, 62 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Luis Robert - 80 PA, 0.485 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 76 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 78 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 81 PA, 0.474 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 48 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 84 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 81 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Adolis Garcia - 93 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 89 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Mike Trout - 54 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 139 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 68 PA, 117 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 74 PA, 111 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 85 PA, 120 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 73 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Nick Fortes - 50 PA, 87 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 85 PA, 146 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 64 PA, 112 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 133 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 77 PA, 136 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Willi Castro - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Jake Fraley - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Robert - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Caballero - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Taylor Walls - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Tony Kemp - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Trea Turner - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 17 Attempts (15 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 16 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 15 Attempts (13 steals)
TJ Friedl - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Trea Turner - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.