MLB Daily Notes - July 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
MLB must be having big time problems this morning, because there is still no Statcast data available for the picking.
So that puts a massive wrench in the cogs of The Daily Notes. I can’t run the automated stuff without the new rows from yesterday.
But it’s 11:15 already and I’m committed to cutting the grass today, so we’re going to do this without the normal stuff. That’s right, we’re using only box score results. Gross.
Pitcher Review
Andrew Abbott shut down the Rockies with seven scoreless innings on eight strikeouts and two walks. He allowed just three hits. That brought his season K% to 19.35. With the 9.0% BB%, that’s a 10.4% K-BB%. That plus the fly balls in Cincinnati make me extremely skeptical of the 2.48 ERA and 1.10 WHIP he’s posted over the last month (five starts). He has a 13.6% BB% in that time with only a slightly better 21% K%. Lots of luck lately, I wouldn’t be starting Abbott again any time soon.
Mitch Keller plugged through eight more innings, giving up two runs on seven hits without walking anybody. He now sports a 3.40 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP on a 15.8% K-BB%, and amazingly he’s won 10 games. He has been fantastic since May began with a 2.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but the K-BB% is still shy of elite at 17%. Good pitcher, certainly a start in most matchups, but the K% isn’t to the point where I’m dying to start him.
Mitchell Parker had a good one, going seven innings against the Cardinals. He struck out six, walked one, and gave up just one run on six hits. He’s now thrown 92 big league innings with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 14.8% K-BB%. That puts him in the “streamer” category. He rarely gives away a base (5.1% BB%), but the strikeouts aren’t very good (20%), so I doubt he can hold on to an ERA this competitive (4.06 SIERA).
Yilber Diaz might be someone to watch. He went six innings in his debut and gave up just four hits and one walk. There were five strikeouts there, so that’s something. In the minors he went for a big 32% K% on a 14.7% SwStr%. The fastball velo is good (96 in the minors), but he doesn’t throw much besides fastballs (54% four-seam, 34% cutter, 13% slider). That’s a lot of fastballs, so I doubt that will work unless this fastball is elite. No reason to add him anywhere now, but we’ll watch him if he sticks around in the rotation.
Gavin Williams did fine in his second start, not allowing a run through 5.1 innings. He gave up four hits and one walk, and struck out five. I really wish I could see the SwStr% and the individual pitch metrics, we’ll do that tomorrow or after his next start. I think he’s someone that should be owned in all 12-team leagues or deeper, there’s real top-30 potential here.
Hitter Review
Elly De La Cruz led the day with two hits, two steals, two runs, and 26 fantasy points. He was even caught stealing once. He now has 15 homers and 45 steals a little past the halfway mark, crazy stuff. The .251 batting average means he’s not hurting you there. He’s a roto stud (elite steals, elite runs, strong homers, decent RBI, neutral batting average), and that’s even with the 31% K% and high GB%. There is more ceiling here to be grasped.
Oneil Cruz also had a big games with a homer, two runs, two RBI, and two hits. He’s hitting a decent .247, but the OBP is bad at .303 and the slugging is shy of what you’re wanting at .444. He is striking out at a 32% clip and not walking all that much (7%). It’s been a season of streaks for Oneil, and I think that’s just how it’s going to be for the big man.
Alec Burleson hit another homer and brought his season OPS to .784. He is the rare player with home run power and an elite strikeout rate (14%).
There are just four hitters in the league with a K% below 15% and a PA/HR below 25.
Jose Ramirez: .840 OPS, 13.1% K%, 16.2 PA/HR
Yordan Alvarez: .927 OPS, 14.7% K%, 19.5 PA/HR
Alec Burleson: .784 OPS, 14.0% K%, 22.1 PA/HR
Ryan O’Hearn: .812 OPS, 10.7% K%, 24.5 PA/HR
Burleson and O’Hearn have many fewer PAs than the other two, but Burleson has been an everyday player for awhile now, while O’Hearn has been helped by not having to ever face lefties. Burleson is must-own (he even has seven steals), but that ship has probably already sailed in most leagues.
Matt Wallner homered again and now leads the league over the last month with a 2.067 OPS. It might help that he’s had just 6 PAs in this last month, but never let the truth ruin a good story! My take on him is that he’s useful in deeper daily changes leagues. He’s not going to play against lefties, and his high whiff rate leads to big time slumps and low batting averages. But if you can get a league where you can just swap him out for someone else when he’s out of the lineup or in a tough matchup, he’s useful.
Some last 30 days strugglers before I go hit the lawn.
Last 30 Days OPS Strugglers
Josh Bell .442
Anthony Volpe .445
Maikel Garcia .449
Adam Duvall .480
Marcus Semien .482
Ezequiel Tovar .504
Gio Urshela .520
Mark Canha .524
Nolan Gorman .524
Andrew Gimenez .435
Jo Adell .438
Dansby Swanson .539
Julio Rodriguez .554
Matt Vierling .580
Rhys Hoskins .593
It has been really miserable for Volpe after that hot start. He has just three steals without a single homer over this last month and he’s lost his job at the top of the order. The homers and steals will pick up soon, I would think, but he’s tough to start right now if you have a backup option.
Same story with Maikel Garcia. Everybody was real pumped about him in April, but it’s been pretty terrible since early on.
Maikel since May 1st:
.229/.284/.327, .611 OPS, 15% K%, 7% BB%, 2 HR, 13 SB
He’s a hold in 14-teamers or deeper, but you can probably find someone better on waivers in normal leagues.
And that’s it for today, we will back tomorrow will the normal notes, as long as they get their stuff together today!
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