MLB Daily Notes - June 12th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I need to kind of rush through this today, but we’re still going to cover as much as possible.
I will first answer a few things in the request box, but very quickly.
Vincent asked about Shane Bieber, he’s covered below
Eli asked about Luke Raley vs. Seiya Suzuki, sounds like he’s considering cutting Suzuki for Raley - and I would not do that. I think Raley is a solid power source in deeper leagues, but he doesn’t play every day and the strikeout rate is bad - I think he could fall off the map pretty quickly
Mike is considering cutting Rowdy Tellez. It has been a brutal stretch for him, but I still think he’s pretty likely to give you what you drafted him for through the rest of the year. The power is for real and the K% is still decent at 25%, but if you’re in a shallow league and there are some much more exciting players on waivers, I don’t think dropping Rowdy is going to end your season or anything like that - the upside is relatively low with him since he’s a power-only kind of profile
Pitchers - Yesterday
Blake Snell and Shane Bieber were the top pitchers of the day right when nobody expected it! Snell was in Coors, Bieber faced the Astros, and both were remarkable.
Bieber went for a 13.5% SwStr%, a 48.1% Strike%, and struck out nine. He benefited from a ton of called strikes (39.4% CSW%), but it was a great outing for him - you just have to start the guy every time out even though the underlying numbers look terrible, but I think this does present a nice opportunity to try to sell-high on him.
As for Snell, it was a 20% SwStr% and a 54.1% Strike%. That was by far his best strike rate of the year, and it turned in 12 strikeouts to zero walks. He had walked 4, 2, 4, 3, and 3 batters in his last five starts - so this was a big change on that regard. Will it continue? No way! Be prepared for another four walks this week!
Mitch Keller had the bounce-back start we expected him to have, and Braxton Garrett kept the good times rolling with a brilliant 56.1% Strike% and 17.1% SwStr% against the south-siders. Here’s the full leaders:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (vs. COL): 35.95 Points
2. Shane Bieber (vs. HOU): 35.35 Points
3. Mitch Keller (vs. NYM): 29.35 Points
4. Braxton Garrett (vs. CWS): 27.59 Points
5. Lucas Giolito (vs. MIA): 25.55 Points
6. Taijuan Walker (vs. LAD): 22.85 Points
7. Shane McClanahan (vs. TEX): 20.75 Points
8. Hunter Greene (vs. STL): 19.19 Points
9. Griffin Canning (vs. SEA): 19.05 Points
10. Trevor Williams (vs. ATL): 18.45 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane McClanahan (TB): 20 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
2. Zac Gallen (ARI): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 17 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
4. Blake Snell (SD): 17 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
5. Shane Bieber (CLE): 14 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
6. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
7. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Trevor Williams (WSH): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
9. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 12 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
10. Mitch Keller (PIT): 11 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 56.1 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
2. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 54.9 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 54.5 Strike%, 30.7 Ball%
4. Blake Snell (SD): 54.1 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
5. Louie Varland (MIN): 52.8 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
6. Griffin Canning (LAA): 52.5 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
7. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 50.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
8. Tristan Beck (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
9. Shane McClanahan (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
10. Shane Bieber (CLE): 48.1 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
11. JP Sears (OAK): 47.7 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
12. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 47.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
13. Ryan Walker (SF): 47.1 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
14. Dinelson Lamet (COL): 45.1 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
15. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 44.6 Strike%, 41.6 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber - 6.67 IP - 167.0 JA Points
2. Mitch Keller - 7.0 IP - 144.5 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan - 7.0 IP - 142.5 JA Points
4. Lucas Giolito - 7.0 IP - 133.0 JA Points
5. Brayan Bello - 6.67 IP - 132.0 JA Points
6. Bryce Elder - 5.33 IP - 131.0 JA Points
7. Braxton Garrett - 5.33 IP - 131.0 JA Points
8. Adam Wainwright - 5.67 IP - 125.5 JA Points
9. Blake Snell - 7.0 IP - 121.5 JA Points
10. Trevor Williams - 5.0 IP - 111.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13.0 GS - 121.86 JA Points
2. Trevor Richards (TOR) - 1.0 GS - 119.5 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points
5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
6. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 13.0 GS - 108.64 JA Points
7. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 10.0 GS - 107.97 JA Points
8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 13.0 GS - 106.94 JA Points
9. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points
10. Chris Sale (BOS) - 11.0 GS - 105.68 JA Points
Pitchers/Pitch Changes
Taijuan Walker kept the velocity up but wasn’t all that fantastic against the Dodgers. Gallen lost some velocity in a bad start, he was clearly over-performing early on but I think this is an under-performing stretch as he’s given up 37 hits in his last six starts, nothing to really worry about there - but maybe Gallen isn’t quite the fantasy ace we thought in April.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Taijuan Walker's FC velo (15 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 90.0
Taijuan Walker's SI velo (25 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 94.8
Kevin Gausman's FS velo (36 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 87.6
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (38 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 90.2
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.3
Braxton Garrett's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.9
Zac Gallen's CU velo (33 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 81.3
Zac Gallen's FF velo (47 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.0
Adam Wainwright's CU velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 70.2
Hayden Wesneski's SI velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Braxton Garrett's FC usage (26.8%) up 11.4 points
Dinelson Lamet's SI usage (30.8%) up 13.3 points
JP Sears's CH usage (26.1%) up 14.3 points
Kyle Gibson's FC usage (27.8%) up 11.0 points
Mike Mayers's CH usage (19.3%) up 10.4 points
Trevor Williams's SL usage (25.0%) up 13.4 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jameson Taillon Cutter: -20.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.8%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +18.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +15.7%
Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +14.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -14.4%
Connor Seabold Slider: -14.0%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
J.P. France Changeup: +13.0%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +13.0%
Tanner Houck Cutter: -13.0%
Jose Berrios 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Logan Webb Changeup: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Colin Rea - 89 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 87 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Sean Manaea - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 110 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Zach Eflin - 74 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 72 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Bryce Elder - 101 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Bobby Miller - 87 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 89 TBF, 53.7% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 99 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 106 TBF, 52.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 87 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 65 TBF, 35.4 K%, 3.1 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3 K%, 1.2 BB%, 43.4% GB%
Ryan Walker - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Miles Mikolas - +3.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Griffin Canning - +2.6% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Michael Kopech - +2.4% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Luis Castillo - +5.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Zach Davies - +4.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +4.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Hitters
Barrel city yesterday, wowzer! Two more for Gunnar, and he’s been insanely good lately.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OPS Leaders Since 5/24
Carroll 1.164
McMahon 1.156
Freeman 1.102
Soler 1.082
Henderson 1.078
N Jones 1.076
Ohtani 1.064
Naylor 1.057
Arraez 1.056
Arenado 1.037
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Multiple Barrels
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 2 PA, 2 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brendan Donovan (STL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Joc Pederson (SF) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jonathan India (CIN) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jorge Soler (MIA) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Josh Bell (CLE) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ramon Urias (BAL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Thairo Estrada (SF) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Zach Neto (LAA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Gabriel Arias, Yesterday: 110.8 Previous High: 109.9
Gunnar Henderson, Yesterday: 113.8 Previous High: 111.1
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Joc Pederson - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
2. Zach Neto - 4.0 PA - 51.5 JA Points
3. Gunnar Henderson - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
4. Zach McKinstry - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
5. Ramon Urias - 5.0 PA - 42.5 JA Points
6. Andres Gimenez - 2.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
7. Ryan O'Hearn - 5.0 PA - 35.5 JA Points
8. Thairo Estrada - 5.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
9. Corbin Carroll - 5.0 PA - 32.5 JA Points
10. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 297.0 PA - 21.48 JA Points
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 294.0 PA - 14.76 JA Points
3. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 220.0 PA - 9.09 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points
5. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 289.0 PA - 1.18 JA Points
6. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 241.0 PA - 0.58 JA Points
7. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 300.0 PA - -1.2 JA Points
8. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 265.0 PA - -4.75 JA Points
9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 281.0 PA - -5.2 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 265.0 PA - -8.68 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Josh Bell (CLE) - 114.0mph - double
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 113.8mph - home_run
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 112.9mph - field_out
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.4mph - single
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.1mph - nan
Triston Casas (BOS) - 112.1mph - grounded_into_double_play
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) - 112.1mph - home_run
Ryan Noda (OAK) - 112.1mph - single
Nolan Jones (COL) - 111.6mph - home_run
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 111.0mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 71 PA, 0.313 wOBA, 0.427 xwOBA, 0.114 Diff
Tommy Edman - 72 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.102 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 59 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 0.354 wOBA, 0.451 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Trea Turner - 83 PA, 0.291 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 0.296 wOBA, 0.368 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 69 PA, 0.227 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 88 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.373 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.421 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Bottom 10
Will Brennan - 61 PA, 0.438 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 79 PA, 0.477 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.123 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 79 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Spencer Steer - 85 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Bryson Stott - 78 PA, 0.354 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 61 PA, 0.375 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Ty France - 76 PA, 0.444 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
Whit Merrifield - 79 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 76 PA, 0.396 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 73 PA, 0.358 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Trent Grisham - 61 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 63 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 68 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Luke Raley - 50 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Garrett Cooper - 50 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 78 PA, 52 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Keibert Ruiz - 52 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 88 PA, 50 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 83 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Luke Raley - 50 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 68 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 87 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Donovan Solano - 63 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Josh Jung - 76 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 71 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
J.D. Martinez - 78 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Wander Franco - 75 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 146 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 70 PA, 113 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 173 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Tucupita Marcano - 56 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 71 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Kyle Tucker - 75 PA, 133 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Willie Calhoun - 53 PA, 73 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 58 PA, 117 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Whit Merrifield - 79 PA, 127 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Corey Julks - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Michael A. Taylor - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Yelich - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake Fraley - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Spencer Steer - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Daulton Varsho - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Will Benson - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 17 Attempts (14 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 16 Attempts (13 steals)
Wander Franco - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Jake Fraley - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Christian Yelich - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Josh Lowe - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Subscribe today to get the full daily notes, as well as all of the other content I put out here - read the about page here for full information and free samples. 10% of subscription fees go to Samaritan’s Purse Ministry, a humanitarian aid charity.